First thoughts: All tied up
Posted: Monday, December 10, 2007 9:24 AM by Mark Murray
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** All tied up: With just slightly more than three weeks until the first nominating contest, three new MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon polls show that the Democratic contest isn’t just a dead heat in Iowa -- it’s also tied in New Hampshire and South Carolina. In Iowa, Clinton has the lead over Obama, 27%-25% (although that’s within the poll’s 5% margin of error), while Edwards comes in third at 21%. In New Hampshire, it’s Clinton 30%, Obama 27%, and Edwards 10%. And in South Carolina, it’s Clinton 28%, Obama 25%, and Edwards 18%. To borrow a sports analogy, the impressive underdog (Obama) has tied it up in the fourth quarter after trailing the once-seemingly invincible favorite (Clinton) for most of the contest. It’s now anybody’s game. But the polls also remind us not to discount Edwards in Iowa, where only Bill Clinton (72%) has higher favorable numbers than the former North Carolina senator (69%). In addition, the polls show Clinton and Edwards sharing similar supporters in New Hampshire. Is the same thing happening in Iowa? Chatter with smart analysts tells us yes. The old conventional wisdom: Edwards hurts Obama. The new CW: the longer Edwards is in, it helps Obama? (Here is the full data for the Democrats: Iowa Dem, NH Dem, SC Dem.)
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Huck’s surge: Turning to the GOP race, the MSNBC/McClatchy polls are the latest evidence of Huckabee’s surge in Iowa, where he leads Romney, 32%-20% -- with Thompson in third at 11%, McCain in fourth at 7%, and the national front-runner Giuliani fifth at 5%. The survey also shows why Huckabee is ahead in the Hawkeye State: He’s the overwhelming choice among those who identify themselves as born-again Christians and weekly churchgoers. In New Hampshire, it’s Romney 25%, Giuliani 17%, McCain 16%, and Huckabee 11%, and in South Carolina it’s a statistical dead heat: Huckabee 20%, Giuliani 17%, Romney 15%, Thompson 14%, and McCain 10%. (Three months ago, would anyone have believed that Thompson would be in fourth place in South Carolina?) A final observation from the poll: There might be a Ron Paul revolution -- blimp and all -- but it isn’t among Republican voters. In all three states, Paul has a net negative fav/unfav rating among GOP voters. Finally, check out Bush's unpopularity in New Hampshire. Phew. Looks like GOP troubles in the Northeast are serious. (Here is the full data for the Republicans:
Iowa Rep,
NH Rep,
SC Rep.)
*** O & O: Those polls were released as Day Two of Oprah-palooza concluded in South Carolina and New Hampshire. Oprah stumping for Obama over the weekend continues to dominate today’s political news. It was an impressive showing, with the Obama campaign -- and, perhaps more accurately Oprah -- attracting audiences that you’d normally see the final week before a general election. But as we noted on Friday, we’ll find out in 24 days if Oprah was the high-water mark for the Obama campaign or the beginning of something larger.
*** On the hot seat: The Sunday shows -- especially Giuliani on Meet the Press and Huckabee on Fox News Sunday -- were all about weighing the GOP baggage. The best could you say about Rudy’s Meet appearance was that he held his own against a barrage of questions. But it also raised a host of questions: How long can he keep up this idea that he won't release the details of everything? How much will the RNC campaign against Hillary be undermined if Giuliani is the nominee? Can they hit her on releasing library records if Giuliani won't release his client list? And can they hit her on being honest and trustworthy if he's changing his story on when (or if) Judith got police protection? Huckabee was also defensive over his past (Dumond, AIDS). Toss in Romney and his flip-flops, and the past has become a major story in the GOP race. Whose baggage is heaviest? Who can best explain his past Who can best explain his past in an authentic and trustworthy fashion? By the way, it looks like someone found more Huckabee quotes from his past and the Drudge Report is dutifully linking to a 9-year-old article this morning. (Hmmm, which GOP campaign is close to Drudge?)
*** Closing time: Clinton's up with a new TV ad in Iowa and New Hampshire, which sure sounds to us like a closing ad of sorts. “It is time for America to set and reach big goals again,” she says in it. “To restore our standing in the world. To rebuild the middle class dream and to reclaim the future for our children. We need a new beginning on health care… We need a new beginning on education… We need a new beginning in our foreign policy.” She concludes, “It takes strength and experience to bring about change.” Meanwhile, Edwards is embarking on an eight-day bus tour through Iowa (later including actors Kevin Bacon and Tim Robbins), which his campaign is billing as his closing argument where he'll debut a new stump speech -- transforming "Two Americas" to an optimistic sounding "America Rising." As we have written before, while Iowa is 24 days away, there might be only 10-11 days left when voters are actually paying attention, due to the upcoming Christmas holiday. If you're going to make your closing argument, all three leading Dems believe now is the time to do it...
*** Also… : Don't miss Al Hunt’s column about the tension between Bill and Hillaryland, and also about the Clinton camp's frustration with the press... Winning campaigns don't have problems like these, do they? And speaking of don’t misses: This week plays host to the final pre-Iowa debates. Last night's Univision debate was not the place to go negative. But the Wednesday and Thursday Des Moines Register debates -- if the format allows -- might be.
*** On the trail: Elsewhere today, Biden campaigns in Iowa; Clinton is in Los Angeles, but has no public events; Dodd has his meeting at Google HQ in Mountain View, CA; Giuliani stumps in San Francisco; Huckabee holds a press avail in Dallas, TX before hitting two fundraisers there; McCain stumps in South Carolina; Obama holds a roundtable discussion on retirement security in Las Vegas before hitting a star-studded event in Los Angeles; Richardson also is in LA; Romney raises money in New York City and Baltimore. Also, Bill Clinton campaigns in Iowa, while Jeri Thompson is in South Carolina.
Countdown to Iowa: 24 days
Countdown to New Hampshire: 29 days
Countdown to Michigan: 36 days
Countdown to Nevada and SC GOP primary: 40 days
Countdown to SC Dem primary: 47 days
Countdown to Florida: 50 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 57 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 330 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 407 days
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