Huck 2nd nationally; Clinton lead shrinks

Posted: Monday, December 10, 2007 5:43 PM by Domenico Montanaro

From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
New national poll numbers show the Democratic race as tight as its been since July. The numbers in the CNN/Opinion Research poll, taken Dec. 6-9: Clinton 40%, Obama 30%, Edwards 14%. The last time the poll was taken from Nov. 2-4 Clinton led 44%-25%-14% over Obama and Edwards. This is, in fact, this closest this poll has been since April when Clinton held an 8-point lead over Obama. And this is the closest national poll since July when a Diageo/Hotline survey showed a 9-point margin. A Cook/RT Strategies poll in September showed an 11-point spread.

On the Republican side, the fluidity is fascinating. Giuliani’s lead has shrunk to just 2 points with Huckabee vaulting into second place. He’s gained 12 points from a month ago; Romney has also gained 5 and Thompson’s support has effectively been cut in half. Here are the numbers: Giuliani 24%, Huckabee 22%, Romney 16%, McCain 13%, Thompson 10%. A month ago, in this poll, the numbers looked like this: Giuliani 28%, Thompson 19%, McCain 16%, Romney 11%, Huckabee 10%. No other candidate was in double digits.

CNN/Opinion Research Democrats
	12/6-9	11/2-4
Clinton	40%	44%
Obama	30	25
Edwards	14	14

Republicans
	12/6-9	11/2-4
Giuliani	24%	28%
Huckabee	22	10
Romney	16	11
McCain	13	16
Thompson	10	19

Only those in double-digits shown.

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Comments

"Wasn't Bee not just a few days ago saying that national polls don't matter - it's all about Iowa?

Confused Bee where you actually stand on that issue..."

I did not post this comment, obviously a pro-Clinton supporter is trying to steal my identity (meant as a joke).

MK, Los Angeles, California (Sent Monday, December 10, 2007 11:48 PM)

who is ron paul?

john doe, seattle, wash. (Sent Tuesday, December 11, 2007 12:06 AM)

As a college educated, female, life long Dem from Missouri I "should" be in the Clinton camp, but I am an ABC'er. Anybody But Clinton. Obama, Edwards, Richardson, doesn't matter. If Clinton is the Dem Nom, I vote third party or worse for the Rep ticket. I read another female in a blog write that she doesn't trust Clinton enough to vote her Chief Dog-Catcher in a neighboring county. I hear you sister! Please if you are a Dem in Iowa, NH or SC, vote ABC. I have never voted Rep and I don't want to start in 2008, but Clinton will not get my vote.

Becky G. Northern VA (Sent Tuesday, December 11, 2007 12:18 AM)

It looks like Huckabee is the favorite and has the momentum. I think all the Rep. are better than any of the Dems. I'm leaning towards Huckabee because he's genuine, straight talker and doesn't attack and do the negative ads like the others, so I think I'm voting for Huckabee. I believe he's the best one to unite and beat the Dems.

Scott (Sent Tuesday, December 11, 2007 12:39 AM)

Do you believe the right wing WANK saying Huckabee was sent by God? These are the kind of wackos that voted for King Bush, worst president in the history of any nation...all the wacky candidate get the ignorant vote..Nascars, Gunners, Religious Right Wacks..they are all nuts who should not even be allowed to vote.

Schmidt (Sent Tuesday, December 11, 2007 12:43 AM)

There is a good chance Obama's numbers will fall again. Having Oprah on the campaign trail probably helped his numbers A LOT. Once she's faded from memory I'm sure Hillary will gain again.

ClassyChic (Sent Tuesday, December 11, 2007 12:47 AM)

Does anyone besides me think there are more than a few things wrong with somebody in Canada saying that Huck is the candidate personally picked by Geeeezus to save us all from the party that isn't for hating gay people and invading Iran???

Proud gay "sinner," Kansas City, MO (Sent Tuesday, December 11, 2007 12:59 AM)

Your polls are just plain wrong, who do you or who ever does the poll ask anyway,who are you voting for, what do you do, call the same dumb people and asked have you changed your mind since yesterday, and just who are you voting for today. In the end especially the National polls it will not matter, because there will be only one Democrat and one republican. You people are wasting peoples time, with your silly [poll taken by fathom people from fathom voters. A lot of those people may not even be alive next year in November to vote for anyone. Oh, grow up.

Lee, NYC (Sent Tuesday, December 11, 2007 2:25 AM)

Oh. So many comments from both sides. I am a normal person who just wants a good choice.

Not decided but it's not Hillary,

Tim Briggs (Sent Tuesday, December 11, 2007 2:55 AM)

Oh. So many comments from both sides. I am a normal person who just wants a good choice.

Not decided but it's not Hillary,

Tim Briggs (Sent Tuesday, December 11, 2007 2:58 AM)

Bee-Hillary is still leading - and by double digits.

Sean (Sent Tuesday, December 11, 2007 4:47 AM)

Bee, how old are you? 16? The maturity in your posts seem to put you around there.

Sean (Sent Tuesday, December 11, 2007 4:48 AM)

Not a paid commentator: I am beginning to think you are right. I am amazed by Bee's comments - and to think she isn't even a Democrat. Clearly she has issues.

SP (Sent Tuesday, December 11, 2007 4:51 AM)

Polls are not the best thing to use to support your feelings on who would win, people change their minds, lie to the pollster and when they get in the voting booth solidify their feelings. The first votes out of Iowa will change things also.
The message out of the Obama camp that a new generation is taking over may resonate with young people but when older voters go in to the booth, they may just vote for the evil they know rather than the unknown of a candidate with little history and experience. In the end, if Obama is the dem candidate, I will vote for him, But I won't count those chickens just yet, the eggs are still in the incubator. Don't start getting giddy, politics has a way of slapping you back to reality.
The real interesting thing is watching the repubs have to fight for the nomination, no more passing the mantle of authority, thanks George for picking Dick as your VP.

John Alexander,Edinboro,PA (Sent Tuesday, December 11, 2007 8:59 AM)

".....This is incredibly significant, because not only does it confirm the fact that Clinton's numbers are dropping everywhere, but it also shows that Clinton's drop is Obama's gain. Clinton dropped 4% and Obama gained 5%. This correlates with what analysts should expect to happen- Clinton's decline will be seen at the same time as a stagnant Obama. As those who abandoned Clinton re-select a candidate, either Edwards or Obama would see a correlational shift.
Such a shift can be seen with this poll. Obama is climbing and Clinton is falling......"
Ron, TX (Sent Monday, December 10, 2007 5:55 PM)

Huh? Does that mean that Oabam gained a couple of points nationally, but Hillary STILL leads him by double digits?
(yawn)

J. Merle Stanley Westchester, NY (Sent Tuesday, December 11, 2007 9:10 AM)

i believe I distinctly remember a certain fellow blogger asking, REPEATEDLY, to whom were Clinton's falling percentage points going to?

Well, I do believe this poll attempts to answer that question:
Clinton lost 4pts- Obama gained 6pts- Edwards remains unchanged

kmnecole, st louis, mo (Sent Tuesday, December 11, 2007 9:47 AM)

sorry- should've read- Obama gained 5pts

kmnecole,st louis, mo (Sent Tuesday, December 11, 2007 9:48 AM)

it was announced to day that a number of ministers from maryland will put their support behind obama. there are hillary supporters in this area as well. it is a battle in the maryland, d.c. and virginia area for both of them. the republicans will lose maryland, district of columbia and virginia.

ace p washington,d.c. (Sent Tuesday, December 11, 2007 10:33 AM)

4 percent is within margin so what really changed .The false hope that the polls give and msnbc encourages to make interesting tv.Maybe oprah will be sec. of housing or education I hear she has a school she wants to leave behind like the one in SOUTH AFRICA

kenn (Sent Tuesday, December 11, 2007 11:50 AM)

Hillary's lead is shrinking faster then a ripe turnip during a hot Oklahoma summer.

D.Rather, NY (Sent Tuesday, December 11, 2007 4:10 PM)

HMT -- As for Rudy---he is going down because of his mistress-wife and his deals with the corrupted enemies of this country. --

This didn't ever seem to stop Bill. He had as many mistresses as he wanted, and made shady deals with the North Koreans, Arafat, and NAFTA. Rudy should blow right through this stuff.

Al Notes (Sent Tuesday, December 11, 2007 5:17 PM)

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