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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Oh-eight (D): Biden is up, up, and away

Posted: Tuesday, December 11, 2007 9:13 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: ,

BIDEN: Per NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann, Biden becomes the last of the six Democratic campaigns playing in Iowa to go up on TV in the state. In the ad, Biden speaks directly into the camera and says, "Being president isn't the same thing as running for president. When this campaign is over, political slogans like 'Experience' and 'Change' will mean absolutely nothing. The next president has to act.” He then touts the bipartisan approval in the Senate of his Iraq plan and that he spoke with the Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf before Bush did after Musharraf declared emergency rule earlier this year. “You don’t have to guess what I’ll do as president,” Biden says to close the ad. “Just look at what I’ve done.”

CLINTON: The New York Times on the latest NYT/CBS poll: “For all the problems Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton appears to be having holding off her rivals in Iowa and New Hampshire, she remains strong nationally, the poll found. Even after what her aides acknowledge have been two of the roughest months of her candidacy, she is viewed by Democrats as a far more electable presidential nominee than either Senator Barack Obama or John Edwards. Not only do substantially more Democratic voters judge her to be ready for the presidency than believe Mr. Obama is prepared for the job, the poll found, but more Democrats also see Mrs. Clinton rather than Mr. Obama as someone who can unite the country.”

Also: “The poll confirmed that former President Bill Clinton was an effective campaign weapon for his wife. Forty-four percent of Democratic voters say Mr. Clinton’s involvement will make them more likely to support her…The poll found that just 1 percent said they might be swayed by the involvement of Oprah Winfrey, who has been campaigning for Mr. Obama in Iowa, South Carolina and New Hampshire the last three days, drawing huge crowds and allowing his campaign to identify new supporters."

Speaking of Bill, he addressed a crowd at the YMCA in Newton, IA following his appearance yesterday in Ames, NBC’s Christina Jamison reports. In addition to driving home the "change agent" line, he embellished a bit, saying she is "a proven agent of positive change." He also reiterated his swipe at Obama, saying: "It isn't enough to have the right vision or the right programs. You have to make them real."

Clinton addressed concerns of revisiting some of the problems of the 1990s. "We don't want to re-fight the battles of the ‘90s, but we sure would like to have some of the victories of the 90s."

Unlike at the Ames stop, Clinton took a few questions from the audience. One was from a former teacher who lived in New Jersey but moved to Iowa to retire. He asked Clinton which decisions he and Hillary disagreed on when he was in the White House. Clinton responded with the timing of health-care reform and his failure to send troops when the Rwandan genocide happened. "I believe if I had moved in then, we might have saved as many as a third of those lives. And I think she clearly would have done that... I know she always thought that was something we should have done." He went on to say, "We have agreed on most things over the long run. But we have on occasion disagreed.  And I would say in the years we've been together, more often than not, when we've disagreed I think time has proven her right."

The Boston Globe also writes about Bill’s answer on Rwanda.

The Los Angeles Times covers Bill Clinton and notes how he's trying to soften the image of his wife. "Many voters see Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton as coldly ambitious, a perception that could ultimately doom her presidential campaign. So on Monday her husband made a swing through Iowa in hopes of convincing voters that she is a sympathetic figure who gave up money and power for love and marriage. President Clinton told a crowd here that she took a chance on him when his political prospects looked dim, marrying him in 1975 when he had already lost a congressional race and was making little as a law professor at the University of Arkansas."

The New York Times posts an email from a Clinton campaign official who appears to have been fishing for info about Obama's days as a community organizer. Adds reporter Jeff Zeleny: "If there was any question whether Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s campaign was concerned about the rise of Senator Barack Obama, here is a fresh example: A deputy campaign manager for Mrs. Clinton sent an e-mail yesterday, trying to find out about Mr. Obama’s background as a community organizer in Chicago."

The Boston Globe’s Peter Canellos writes that Clinton “now she finds herself in a duel for the Democratic nomination with the younger, more dynamic Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, who exudes a Bill Clinton-like sensitivity to average people.” For Hillary to win, “it probably requires a more direct, humble appeal to voters. She needs to show just how badly she wants to be president, how eager she is to serve.”

DODD: Dodd begins airing a new TV ad in Iowa today (on broadcast and cable). “I'm not a former First Lady or a celebrity. But I am the only Democrat running who's a veteran,” Dodd says in it. “And I was in the Peace Corps. I am the candidate who authored the Family and Medical Leave Act. I am the candidate who negotiated the end to wars. These aren't campaign slogans, it's what I've done over a lifetime of service.”

The ad concludes, “I'm Chris Dodd and I approve this message because I'm the candidate who can win next November and I am ready to be president.”

EDWARDS: The Des Moines Register notices, “Earlier in the campaign, Edwards jabbed Democratic rival Hillary Clinton at every turn. But he's toned down the rhetoric in recent weeks, and he said he will keep it that way from now on. ‘My intention is between now and the caucuses to focus on why I want to be president, and the positive parts of that," he told reporters riding his campaign bus through the snowy countryside.’” He did, however, say that if he’s asked a direct question about distinguishing between himself and Obama and Clinton at a debate, that he would do so.

His campaign, meanwhile, is up with a new ad in South Carolina. "It is time for our party, the Democratic Party, to show a little backbone, to have a little guts -- to stand up for working men and women. If we are not their voice they will never have a voice," the former North Carolina senator says in a 60-second spot titled "Heroes."

The Washington Post looks at Edwards' days growing up as the "son of a millworker."

OBAMA: The Politico gets its hands on a 1996 questionnaire Obama filled out when he was running for state Senate, and it includes his liberal positions on capital punishment, abortion, and gun control. “The questionnaire, which was provided to Politico with assistance from political sources opposed to Obama’s presidential campaign, raises questions of whether Obama can be painted as too liberal and whether he is insufficiently consistent. Obama, who makes an issue of his opponents’ consistency in the presidential race, has tempered many of those 1996 views during his quick rise to the pinnacle of American politics. He now takes less dogmatic positions many of those hot-button issues — in the view of some Democrats, he abandoned the stands as he rose through the ranks.”

The Union Leader’s DiStaso reports that New Hampshire Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) will endorse Obama.
 
The Globe’s Pindell adds, “Besides the fact she went against her own campaign chair Billy Shaheen, who backs Hillary Clinton, the news is also bad for John Edwards, who both shares her populist and anti-war message and who desperately needs some kind of positive news out of the Granite State.”

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Comments

Folks,

Have you heard the latest from Hillary's campaign; you've got to laugh after reading this article.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/12/10/barackemail/

Remember the kindergarten essay, now, the Clinton campaign is looking at his community organizing background. They are looking for dirt …lol… desperado
Jerome Armstrong, MyDD diarist thirdestate speculates:
"I've been considering these questions for some time, and I'm becoming more and more convinced that Obama is trying to win the 'media primary' . . . My suspicion is that Barack is attempting to appease/manipulate the class of establishment pundits, and with them the press corps as a whole . . . By making noises about Social Security and [healthcare] mandates, Obama is feeding the media beast. Heck, it might even work, if recent polls are any evidence.


Obama , to the right of every other democratic canidate. He's out to appease the GOP
It is a national poll.  It still means nothing until they have campaigned in those states.  I live in MN and can guarantee that hardly anybody is paying attention yet.
hill and obama have their celebs to show, biden has his own celeb endorsements, the other candidates themselves {view joe's right on biden web]. like joe says; he's got the only iraq proposal that's passed, was right on iran and right on pakistan.he has more foreign affairs experience than hill,bar,and edwds combined and that includes hill's white house tenure and barak's schooling! THE MAN HASN'T ANY FINANCE SCANDALS cause he's got no money to audit. lets do for biden what the repubs did for huckabee, give joe a surge in iowa. he's the best qualified!
Hey democrats, be warned.. moderate democrats win national elections... and the moderates are Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, and Bill Richardson.  These are the people who will likely work best in a divided government, and these are the ones we should practically get behind.  Think about it people, idealism is nice, but reality is still reality.  A democrat will have to work with republicans and lofty liberal goals will not come to fruition.  Don't be tempted to jump on media created doomed bandwagons (including those with Oprah heading them).  There is the reason the corporate controlled, republican media wants you to choose Obama.. they know.. liberals are easier to beat in general elections.  Don't fall for it, guys.
--- but more Democrats also see Mrs. Clinton rather than Mr. Obama as someone who can unite the country.” ---

This just shows how delusional the Democrats are. Hillary a uniter? Now Democrats are just making things up.
'The Union Leader’s DiStaso reports that New Hampshire Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) will endorse Obama.'

good job obama, that 5K you gave porter illegally from your PAC, has paid off
Shock:  Obama has the views of a democrat!  stop the presses.  
Obama has never pretended to have republican views - like Hillary who is all over the place.
He even says in his speech that democrats should be proud democrats and quit worrying over what the republicans will say.
As for your drolling over Bill, well many democrats are annoyed with him.  His obsession of himself is so 90s.
I find the new poll to be an outlier.  They say Hillary is a uniter.  Never has this shown in polls all year.  And yet this one says that.  that makes me question the poll.  Hillary has always been viewed as the establishment and divisive figure she is and now the NY times is saying that overnight people have changed this view?
Was this just a poll done in NY?

Hillary with a 17% national lead over Obama – let’s see if Chris Matthews acknowledges this poll on Hardball tonight.  Anyone care to bet that he won’t since it does not fit his “Hillary's Campaign is Imploding” storyline.

A 17% lead – some implosion!

Must be very frustrating for Obama and his supporters to witness the rise of Huckabee.  Huckabee is now close to or leading Giuliani in national polls while, despite many months, much publicity and money spent, Obama has never led or come close to leading Hillary in the national polls.  Just further proof of the strong and solid support she enjoys amongst democrats.
The New York Times posts an email from a Clinton campaign official who appears to have been fishing for info about Obama's days as a community organizer.

Instead of trying to stay on target as far as the issues are concerned, the Clinton's continue to dig into their enemies past.  These people just have no shame.  They make the mafia look like a nursery school.
A great ad from a great candidate!
Hillary-Us Democrats know you are the best qualified for the job. Once nominated, your candidacy will invigorate us (unlike Gore or Kerry were able to do)to carry you into the White House!

Keep it up Girl!
An Illinois questionaire shows that Barack Obama is too Democratic to be elected? Wow - this is getting funnier and funnier. Sooner or later, folks are just gonna have to start saying they don't want a Black President just because they have always had a white one. Oh wait, folks are already saying that. lol

P.S. Also so funny that only 1% would be influenced by Oprah Winfrey. If every poll confirms Ms. Winfrey has no influence (other than a negative one of course) why in the world does everyone keep bringing it up? This has got to be the most discussed non-factor in U.S. election history. :)
I have yet to see Biden's ad on TV here, but I'm looking forward to it.  I saw Dodd's this morning and it was good.  I will be so glad in 3 weeks when every commercial break is not full of political ads.  I'm sure they are helpful to some people but they do nothing for me.  



Is anyone going to call out Obama for taking just as politically convenient position as Hillary? He is getting away with this to no end. In the Politico article he says he is for the death penalty "in principle" but against it "in practice." There is no grey area there, you either think bad people should die or you don't.
-----CLINTON SLEEZE FATIGUE WILL INVIGORATE GOP, DISPIRIT DEMOCRATS AND SINK DEMOCRATIC TICKET-----

-----EDWARDS/RICHARDSON TO WIN-----

It is possible that Senator Clinton is the best candidate.  However, even though many may like the policies that Senator Clinton proposes, they should also consider her record, just as Senator Clinton insists.
.
The last Clinton Administration, when faced with the fact that protection rackets where assaulting, torturing and murdering people with poison and radiation, chose to avoid its responsibilities to incarcerate the criminals and to protect the citizenry.
.
Instead, they made a deal with the criminal gang stalker protection rackets to leave them alone and to consequently abandon the citizenry.
.
Do we want a President who sells out the citizenry for votes?
.
Do we want a President who sends a "crime does pay" message to society?
.
Would you vote for a President who signed nonaggression deals with the KKKlan or the Nazi party? Gangs that torture with poison and radiation are much like the KKKlan and Nazi Party.
.
We do not need a sellout President. We need a principled leader President.
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If you are one of the few who do not know what the above refers to, do a web search for “gang stalking” to see the tip of the dirtberg.  Please do it before you decide to reply to my post. Here let me make it easy for you: http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=%22gang+stalking%22.
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Pray tell me how Bill Clinton who sold his soul to criminals, drug dealers,and terrosists over the objection of law enforcement for hundreds of thousands of dollars for pardons for his librabry and hillary s senate race.  Not only that he performrd perverted acts on a young intern with cigars.  The democrats must be hard up for someone to look up to.  If they worship this behavior, what does it tell you about them.
"and that he spoke with the Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf before Bush did after Musharraf declared emergency rule earlier this year"

Yeah well big freaking deal Joe. What 1 Senator out of 100 says and does means nothing on the world stage, but what a President says and the timing  matters. The same would be true if you were in the seat at the time.  You are less insane than the rest of your democrat buddies though. :-)
Clinton addressed concerns of revisiting some of the problems of the 1990s. "We don't want to re-fight the battles of the ‘90s, but we sure would like to have some of the victories of the 90s."
**Yeah, like free trade.  I personally think free trade is a good thing, but Clinton is backing down from Clinton's previous policy.  (Now you can maybe understand why her first name of Hillary is used, hardly disrespectful).  I guess she has to pander to get the votes, but what choices will she make if she returns to office?  Seriously, think about it.
Obamna tries to say he is different but does are lies, he has been pulled into Washigton as well.
Someone should ask Hillary & any democrat if they agree with Bill that Jack Bauer should just suck it up, and not get the President involved. Not surprised this didn't get more notice.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21065954/page/2/
"It’s far better if you happen to the be the agent that has to deal with that, just suck it up and decide what you think is right and be prepared to live with the consequences. " - First Black President Bill Clinton
Let's Go Biden!  This guy needs to win!  He is the only one with the true experience and the wisdom to make the necessary changes to this country and to our foreign policy.
Why wont Biden, Dodd, Kucinich, and Richardson (to an extent) just drop out of this race?  I realize everyone who wants to run should have an opportunity, but they have to realize by mid december that if they aren't already averaging more than 5% in polls, they aren't going to be in the early states anyway.  They simply are taking (possibly) critical votes away from the candidates that could really stand a chance.  

I think Hillary should be waaay more worried about her chances.  Why?  1.  Obama will win Iowa.  2.  Edwards could get second in Iowa; getting 3rd in Iowa doesn't look so good.  3.  With that momentum, Obama will win NH, if only marginally.  4.  SC will also swing for Obama, but by a greater margin than NH, which will make it seem like Obama's popularity is gaining more and more.  5.  After seeing he can actually win, independants (who overwhelmingly support obama) will actually spent their time voting for him in all the other states.  Obama will win the nomination, and then he will win the presidency and unite the country.
Obama has been talking out the side of mouth for years
yes he is a good speaker but he jokes under presure as you seen in the debates. And this guy want the keys to our foreign policy  and for all your oproa fans she has realy steped on her tongue with this her judgment is about as good as her staff she has at her 40.000.000 school not in the u.s.a.    
A poll is what it is and I can only wonder how questions were asked.  I find it curious that these Democrats questioned seem to feel that Hillary is better able to unite the country Obama.  

As an anecdotal reference, I live in upstate NY and here, Hillary is the ultimate in polarization.  More significantly, her high negatives reflected in other national polls would also speak to her polarizing nature.  The perceptions of these particular Democrats questioned in the CBS/NYT poll might be clouded by wishful thinking or by a nebulous nature in which the questions were asked.

In any case, the results are interesting and show the wide variability of polls.  Somehow, I believe that the incubator called Iowa, is a world of its own and we'll just have to see how this thing plays out with truly engaged voters.  I have to say, being the political junkie that I am, that I envy the priveledge shared by Iowans, of participating in this very unique American laboratory.  
Obama '08
Look at what Biden's done...  Nothing, but sat in the do nothing Congress for most of his political life.   Congress gets very little done based on performance relative to pay.  This why Congress is called the broken branch of government.  If Senator Biden and Senator Dodd want to show they are "Leaders" on a national level perhaps the should pursue reform of the institution they represent for the American taxpayer. If Biden wants to do something meaningful and have a positive impact on the lives of people, become a Governor or lead in reforming Congress.
Look at what Biden's has done...  Nothing, but sat in the do nothing Congress for most of his political life.   Congress gets very little done based on performance relative to pay.  This is why Congress is called the broken branch of government.  Senator Biden and Senator Dodd want to show they are "Leaders" on a national level perhaps the should pursue reform of the institution they represent on behalf of the American taxpayer.   If Biden wants to do something meaningful and have a posivitive impact on the lives of people, become a Governor.
Do you think at some point we can recognize that national polls do not now represent, nor have they ever represented, anything significant? I don't think I should have to point out that, while the general election occurs nationally, on a single date, the primaries go state by state in a staggered fashion.

Things are a little different for Republicans this year, but nationally the Democrats will vote however Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina vote. Just look at history.
gngfjhyjhhhgjhgjhgjh
Hey Guys.....Thanks for covering all the candidates in one message.  It is really hard at work to try and read everything I need to see in (1) hour.  Like I said before, as we move into the thrust of the "Most Exciting Election Year Ever"...try and keep it human and pointed in the direction of issues; right or left.
Who is this Biden?
So the NYT/CBS poll shows democrats believe Hillary can unite the country better than Edwards or Obama, " Yea Right?" The Clintons can unite the country about as well as George Bush has.                           Was it not the actions of the Clintons that caused the democrats to lose control of Congress in 1994 to the republicans? Was it not the Clintons who caused six contineous years of investigations into inappropriate and illegal actions by the Clintons?......." Uniters....any more jokes?"
"she is viewed by Democrats as a far more electable presidential nominee than either Senator Barack Obama or John Edwards."

the new york times does not speak for 'most democrates', john edwards has always been and still is the most electable dem candidate and all the beltway blabber to the contrary ain't going to change that fact, hillary can't win the general election
It's great to see more information about Joe Biden.  He has the background and ideas to make the policy changes this country so desparately needs.
The New York Times. Clinton on the Board of Directors yet? Who believes anything this rag has to say? My guess is that Hillary gets even better advertising rates (free?) then Moveon.org got a couple of months ago.
Senator Biden has a great ad for a great candidate!
I have a very hard time as well believing the MOST democrats believe Hillary Clinton can unite the country better than Edwards or Obama. I'll give her the electability thing among dems b/c of the Clinton poltical machine which is very impressive, but uniting the country??? Come on man....
Joe Biden has earned my vote.
"'...Not only do substantially more Democratic voters judge her to be ready for the presidency than believe Mr. Obama is prepared for the job, the poll found, but more Democrats also see Mrs. Clinton rather than Mr. Obama as someone who can unite the country.'"

...and you BELIEVE this!?  Who are you polling there in New York?  When 50% of those surveyed nationally admit they will NEVER vote for Senator Clinton, these results are simply unrealistic.
Despite all the beating Hillary has taken from the media and the candidates in the last several weeks, she continues to lead in majority of the polls. As she said, she gets their attention because she is leading the other candidates.

Last night I was watching Chris Mathews and he sounded more like Obama's campaign manager.  Besides, why most of the guests he brings are afraid to disagree with him. Sometimes, if someone does not chime with him, he keeps shouting over them and cuts them off. Some Journalism!!!!
Shotti.
Biden Should be the Nominee. Any-way-you-see-it.

...but the uninformed voters who brought us so many disappointments in the past, will mess up this one too. They'll either vote for the insipid egg-layer Clinton or the rainbow-colored bubble-blowing Obama.

(although Iowa is a little more politically-aware than us, the nation)
I heard a Republican strategist being interviewed by Russert on MSNBC today who made the point that Edwards consistently polls best in general election match-ups and is the only one who can "run the field" against the Republican candidates.  The strategist also said, "I'd he happy with either Hillary or Obama being the Democratic nominee.  Edwards is the one who scares us because he's a southern Democrat, and they're the ones who win."

"Was it not the Clintons who caused six contineous years of investigations into inappropriate and illegal actions by the Clintons?......."

Hardly, revisionist. That was Henry Hyde, Gingrich, Ken (oops - I'm forging evidence again!) Starr and all the little people who make up the the only party in our history more interested in punishing the other side than doing what's good for the country.

Glad to straighten you out.

It seems we now have proof of Obama flip-flopping on issues:

http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=C906328B-3048-5C12-007DE179B9A5D1D5

And as for Oprah's judgement about Obama, back during the time leading up to the last presidential election she said she was voting for Bush because when he was on her show he gave her a hug, whereas Gore only shook her hand and she thought he was cold, so that's why she was voting for Bush. So her judgment means squat.
Biden knows what to do the minute he takes the oath of office.  He'll restore credibility and honesty to the oval office.  Joe Biden should be given a second look now.
Just what has Biden accomplished for the sorry State of Delaware in the last 30+ years? It's the land that progress forgot!
Biden Should be the Nominee. Any-way-you-see-it.

...but the uninformed voters who brought us so many disappointments in the past, will mess up this one too. They'll either vote for the insipid egg-layer Clinton or the rainbow-colored bubble-blowing Obama.

(although Iowa is a little more politically-aware than us, the nation)
check the contributers list at negative adds. research the names and lobbying firms that have supported hillary. see if any of them represent the nyt. after you do that then ask yourself if this poll is unbiasly put forth.
I would just like to point out that Biden's first ads in Iowa ran earlier this year, and that these new ads are merely his next round of TV ads rather than his first round.


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