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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



Swing voters value American Dream

Posted: Tuesday, December 11, 2007 7:02 PM by Domenico Montanaro

From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
General election swing voters are looking for a candidate who will offer a plan for voters and their children to achieve the American Dream, according to a new survey from Change to Win. "Swing voters are anxious," Anna Burger, chair of Change to Win, said during a conference call this morning. "They believe the American Dream is at risk."
 
Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners called this election a paradigm shift, where voters want more government intervention, as opposed to in 1980 when voters turned away from seeing the government as part of the solution. Now, Lake said, "Swing voters, who are typically anti-government, ... say things are so bad, government needs to take action."
 
Greg Denier of Change to Win said an overwhelming majority of people pick economic security over economic opportunity. In the 1980s, however, swing voters picked opportunity over security. 
 
Change to Win is a partnership of seven unions and the results of their survey show swing voters today value unions in their role to help American people achieve the American Dream. According to the survey, swing voters are most worried about jobs with good enough pay to support their families, access to affordable quality healthcare, opportunities for children to succeed, and a secure and dignified retirement.
 
The results of the survey also show swing voters are turning inward, as concern about the economy becomes the most important issue to voters personally. In this survey, 35% of swing voters picked economic issues including retirement security, while 25% of swing voters picked the Iraq War.
 
Nationally, 1,250 people were interviewed for the survey, including 920 registered voters and 330 additional non-registered voters.

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Sounds like the Swing Vote won't be spending much time listening to Republicans and their 'No Millionaire Left Behind' policies. Just an  Independent's musing.
Hence Obama's dominance in polling of registered independents.
Maybe the average American is finally realizing the repubs have absolutely NOTHING to offer, except more war, more fear mongering, more corporate welfare, more special interest lobbyist giveaways, more tax breaks for the wealthy-all of which the middle class is paying for-for nothing in return. About time the middle class wakes up!
Since FirstRead probably won't report it, here is text from a CNN poll released Tuesday 12-11 showing what polls have consistently shown for more than a year ... the Democratic candidate who can WIN in November, who appeals to independents and swing voters, is John Edwards:

"On the Democratic side, Edwards performs best against each of the leading Republicans. In addition to beating Huckabee by 25 percent and McCain by 8 percent, the North Carolina Democrat beats Romney by 22 percentage points (59 percent to 37 percent) and Giuliani by 9 percentage points (53 percent to 44 percent)."

Iowa, don't let us down.  Vote for Edwards!

The candidate of choice, to bring the needed change and work with "both" parties to get things "done". hillaryclinton.com ..come see why.
People have had enough of the Washington self serving Paper hangers agenda, As posted in this article ""Totally pushed aside is no longer going to be tollerated"". This is a nation of Americans and their voice in Washington has been cut off by the Washington self serving paper hanging agenda's!!

I will bet!  There will not be a Washington self serving paper hanger as the next President!!!!
The Clinton campaign's strategy for the final three weeks before the Iowa caucuses has finally been revealed:  Portray Senator Obama as too liberal for the general election and too mean for the primaries -- witness the old story she dug up about opp research and the story she got the Politico to print about a 1996 questionnaire (the 2008 equivalent of Howard Dean, perhaps with some horns growing out of his head) and portray Senator Clinton as the most gifted person of her times who only acts out of concern for and to help others with no personal ambitions or egos of her own -- witness Bill Clinton's statements from yesterday and her new ad "New Beginnings" (the modern day equivalent of Mother Thereasa).  If you believe ALL of this (not just some, but ALL) then there truly is nothing anyone can say to change your mind about the upcoming Iowa caucuses and NH primary.
As a moderate independent who feels candidates and incumbants of both parties have sold their souls to lobbyist am looking for just one thing in a candidate, the desire and will to take government away from corporate and special interest lobbyist and return representative loyalty to the rightful constituents (the people). The representative form of government has become a joke, nolonger does mainstream America have representation in Congress or state legislatures. The people only think they are electing someone who will represent them, but once their representative is in office 9 out of 10 sell their souls to lobbyist to further their own careers. It is fixable however, a simple "Conflict of interest" law to bind a representative to the legal constituents a representative has pledged to represent in an official capacity upon being elected. An attorneys loyalty is guaranteed by such an ethical code and so should legislative representatives be bound by the same type of code. John Edwards is aware of this and has pledged to rid lobbyist from the halls of legislatures and Congress. For that reason alone Edwards should be the candidate of all those not in the upper 5% income bracket. Lets fix government first so it can again work for all of us. Edwards is this independents choice
If this is accurate Huckabee and Obama will be the nominees.
This can only be good for Obama.  His popularity amongst the college-educated cannot be underestimated, and he's seen as far more future-oriented.  Well, Hillary is too, but she's seen as being future-oriented toward her plans of being elected.

I wish there was more of an actual debate about healthcare.   Her healthcare proposal, like Edward's, sounds exactly like the plan Mitt Romney implemented here in Massachsuetts.  Trust me, it's not that good.

They can call it universal healthcare as much as they want, the only thing that makes it universal is that it says EVERYONE must buy healthcare from the private sectors.  Guess what, some people can't afford that.  Guess what again, Hillary has dodged the question of how that mandate will be enforced!   What'll happen if you refuse to buy healthcare from insurance companies?   What will the federal government do to you for not following Hillary's mandate?   WILL they even do anything, or is it all talk to snatch your vote?

Whatever happened to having a CHOICE?

If you're going to try and shove healthcare down anyone's throat, at least make it affordable first.  And please, don't act like you're morally superior for being authoritarian.
What does all of these polls mean if the next election is stolen?  What is being done to ensure an honest election.
the economy now replaces iraq as the most important issue. hello people! the economy is iraq. at $2.4 tril over 10 years and the flood down effect of gas prices at the retail level the two, war and economy are inseperable!if you don't vote for a candidate capable of handling the war and foreign affairs as your highest priority the economy won't change from freefall path. get experience and leadership, vote joe biden.
The swing voters will be the big difference next year, the numbers don't point that out right now.
Everyone may be surprised at the outcome, the numbers are solidifying around the front candidates from the people in their party, the independents are the real power and are not as interested in making poll numbers. Lets wait for Iowa to see how the independents swing. It will be over the economy and that bodes well for the dems next year.
If swing voters are concerned about economic security then they neeed to be concerned about ending the Iraq war for if they don't this country is on it's way to economic irrelavance.
Yes, the American dream is out of reach for the "working-class" because thier's no middle class. Between The corporations not honoring thier promises to the people who have held up thier end of the deal and worked, put in thier 20 years and more and make at $100,000 a year (middle-class)and who make minimum to living wage (working-class), thier's no loyalty and no trust. The only way trust is going to be re-established is the federal goverment to "drop" hard on the privleged who get richer by putting thier own citizens out of work while favoring undocumented and illegal immigrants who are itliterate in what it takes to have and maintain a middle-class lifestyle. They will work for any little money. I have heard us American's say we're lazy. I look at it form this point of view, WE KNOW WHAT IT TAKES TO MAINTAIN A LIFSTYLE. WE KNOW YOU HAVE TO MAKE A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF MONEY TO LIVE WITHOUT SOCIAL SERVICES, If you really want to end the entittlement mentality, the priviledged class is going to have to make a choice, PAY PEOPLE AN DECENT LIVING WAGE WITH COST OF LIVING AS MERIT AND REDUCE THE ENTITTLEMENT SERVICE OR PUT EVERYBODY ON THE DOLE. YOU CAN'T HAVE IT BOTH WAYS BY CONDEMMING PEOPLE AND NOT PAYING THEM.
Steve Turner Cedar Falls Iowa "Sounds like the Swing Vote won't be spending much time listening to Republicans and their 'No Millionaire Left Behind' policies. Just an  Independent's musing."  You are an Independent?  uh huh... sure you are.

Lets keep a few inconvienent facts in mind shall we:
1.  Many of the top Democrat and Republican candidates are taking ALOT of money from coporations.  Someone told me on another board that all that money only buys someone's "ear" and not their vote or policy... sure, if you want to believe that then go right ahead.  My experience in life has shown that people tend to listen to thier ears and adjust what they think and do.  Remember these corporations are not just giving money from the kindness of their own hearts.

2.  I fail to see how we save money when we stop a war that we can't afford and replace it with a government health care that we can't afford.  Either way we can't afford it.  With my budget if I can't afford it then I don't buy it.

3.  The "American Dream" - this means alot of different things to different people.  For me it means being able to afford a home and a good life for me family.  It also means that the government isn't intruding on my life too much.  Who dreams about the government dictating to them what they will eat, drink, smoke (or not smoke), say (I can't stand it when someone wants to drown out ALL the points of view), and so on.  Call me idealistic but I think we can have both economic opportunity and security at the same time, we should not have to choose one or the other.

4.  Illigal immigration and NAFTA - these two issues are doing terrible harm to our country.  I was originally for NAFTA but have since seen that it does not provide fair and free trade, rather it just sends our jobs to other countries and hurts our own businesses. As for Illigal immigration, I honestly don't think that either party really wants to do anything about it.  They BOTH want to keep things the way they are now so that they can pander for votes and not have to crack down on businesses that violate the law by employing them.  I can't see how it is compassionate to keep a under-class working at sub-standard wages in poor conditions.  There are no jobs that "Americans won't do" rather there are low wages that Americans can't afford to settle for.  By cracking down on these two issues it would greatly enhance both job and economic opportunities in this country for Americans, isn't that what we should be doing?  Why do we sit silently by while our politicians send our jobs overseas and allow other nations to dump cheap (and many times unsafe) products on us?  Why do we watch illigals snatching up jobs at a low wage while our own unemployment rate climbs?  What is wrong with telling our businesses to hire Americans at a reasonable wage rather than just paying pennies for illegals?  No there are not any "illegal people" rather there are people here illegally, and to then call someone that has already violated the law coming here a "law abiding" person is really an insult to my intelligence.

This upcoming election lets look for the candidate that can do these things.  Lets find the person that makes the interests of the United States first priority.  Vote for who you want but please dont' throw your vote away just because you want a Christian, a Woman, a Democrat, or a Republican in office.  Vote for the person that can and will address the real issues.
Sounds like swing voters are swinging towards Obama.
S.K.M. Mass mistakenly posts /  "Her healthcare proposal (hillarys), like Edward's, sounds exactly like the plan Mitt Romney implemented here in Massachusetts.  Trust me, it's not that good."

 either you have not compared edwards healthcare plan with hillary's which is purposely vague and written by the insurance and pharmaceutical industry. or your lying, whatever the case it should be made clear that edwards healthcare plan is consumer oriented with choices of plans you may participate in, but everyone has to participate for the plan to work, which means everyone will be covered, that's the only way that costs can be cut and everyone receive quality care, for anyone who has not examined edwards plan personally I recommend you take the time to do so, don't take the word of the media since they despise edwards and will not print anything positive concerning him, edwards is the only candidate that cares about america as a whole, don't waste your vote on one of the corporate owned novelty candidates, vote for positive change, edwards
Richard,WV, good post, I agree, there are a number of dem candidates that meet that criteria, I just can't believe anyone in the repub party, George made me gunshy of the whole damn party. Still think McCain has those qualities but he is not going to get any traction, doesn't toe the party line enough.
Independent voter here................
swinging  towards Obama...............

Obama can change the way the goverment take care of the American Dream as well as the American People.
He will listen to your positions, cries of fairness, & lead us out of this mess that the republicans has created.
It will take some time and I truly beleive that Obama is the persin to do it.


HRC, LIES, CHEATS, & STEALS(WHITE WATER).
I DO NOT WON`T THIS KIND OF PERSON TO LEAD OUR COUNTRY. HRC WILL SELL US OUT JUST TO FATTEN HER POCKETS, DON`T BE FOOLED BY HRC SHE IS A REPUBLICAN
RUNNING AS A DEMOCRAT.


OBAMA 08' THE MAN THAT WILL CHANGE THE WAY THE GOVERMENT SHOULD BE AND THAT IS FOR THE PEOPLE
THAT HAS PUT THEM THERE IN THE FIRST PLACE.

OBAMA 08' THE VOCIE OF REASON & GOOD JUDGEMENT....
OBAMA 08' THE MAN FOR THE AMERICAN PEOPLE.....

OBAMA 08'


All these things the goverment has left putt
What is wrong with telling our businesses to hire Americans at a reasonable wage rather than just paying pennies for illegals?

I fail to see how we save money when we stop a war that we can't afford and replace it with a government health care that we can't afford.
Richard, Clarksburg, WV (Sent Wednesday, December 12, 2007 9:23 AM)


****************************************************

Why Rich , you sound like a "Union man". And that is not a bad thing.

A good national universal healthcare plan wouldn't cost a fraction of the amount that it costs to sustain this war. By the way, we can afford it.
I'm happily a swing voter ...  I frequent the American dream and worry that it is at rist--our country is clearly heading in a negative direction!

My tops: B.H. Obama.
2nd String: J. Biden, J. McCain, M. Huckabee.
MK,
I wasn't lying, just way too vague.   Edwards is my second choice after Obama, I just don't like the concept of a universal healthcare plan.   I concede that it was a mistake to not be more clear that my opposition is truly towards HRC's healthcare plan, which is as you say, deliberately vague and probably influenced by the insurance companies.   While again, I don't like the concept of Edwards' plan, I don't know the clear cut differences between his and Hillary's.  Namely how he would enforce his mandate, which perhaps you could help educate me on?
Americans tend to believe that Democracy and Capitalism are almost one and the same, but that isn't necessarily true.  Capitalism is working just fine in China, Russia, and several other places that are either totalitarian or trending that way.  The unspoken bargain that allows America to work is an understanding that wealty capitalists are free to do pretty much as they please AS LONG AS they pass sufficient wealth to the middle class to keep the society stable.  That bargain has been broken over the last 30 years as the wealthy have rapidly accumulated wealth while allowing the middle class to languish.  In fact through the GOP they have recruited government to work against the best interest of the citizens.  If the Democrats focus on keeping the middle class secure they will be in power for a long time.  And America will be better off as a result.


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