ABOUT FIRST READ

First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Poll: Huck, Obama lead in IA

Posted: Wednesday, December 12, 2007 10:05 AM by Domenico Montanaro

From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
Huckabee
and Obama continue to lead in Iowa according to a new Strategic Vision (R) poll which will be released tomorrow. On the Democratic side, Obama leads with 33% of the vote and Clinton and Edwards are statistically tied for second with 25% and 24%. Biden and Richardson each received 4%.

On the Republican side, Huckabee leads with 30% while Romney has 25%. Thompson came in third with 13% followed by Giuliani with 10% and McCain with 5%. The poll was conducted December 8 to 10 with 600 people from each party. The margin of error is 4.5%.

Another poll by Strategic Vision (R) conducted in the February 19 state of Wisconsin shows a different story and points to Giuliani's national polling strength. He is leading with 26% while Huckabee received 20%. Thompson, Romney and McCain are statistically tied for third with 12%, 11% and 10%, respectively.

On the Democratic side, Clinton also shows her strength in the later states. She takes the lead with 36% in Wisconsin while Obama comes in second with 29%. Edwards lags behind with just 12%. This poll was conducted December 7 to 9 with 800 people from each party. The margin of error is 5.5%.

Strategic Vision (R)

Democrats

 

12/8-10

11/30-12/2

Obama

33

32

Clinton

25

25

Edwards

24

25

Republicans

Huckabee

30

27

Romney

25

24

Thompson

13

11

Giuliani

10

13

McCain

 5

 6

 

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Comments

People get ready there is a train coming...
Its picking up passengers coast to coast...
faith is the key to get the disels humming... (as Obama supporter have known)

You don't need a ticket just get onboard...

Obama 08
A lot will ride on the debate tomorrow night.  I don't think that there will be any punches held.  Obama will have to unleash his best and that will be to differentiate his position from that of Senator Clinton's, on the war.  This is still the most important issue that separates them and the issue that shows the difference in judgment when approaching foreign affairs.  He, Kucinich and Paul are the only candidates running who can make claim to being against this imperialistic incursion into Iraq since 2002.  Without a doubt, it is the most important issue to many of us and I appreciate Dot's protest that the issue seems to have been waylaid by the MSM.  I'm sure team Hillary appreciates that.

John Edwards will help to smash Hillary about her ties to corporate interests.  Certainly these allegiances will compromise her as an effective spokesperson for the average American (even though she claims to have been working for the common American for thirty five years - or as soon as she got out of law school).

Experience is a non-starter for her since she has no more (and even much less than some running for the nomination - Biden, Dodd, Richardson, Kucinich) than her primary contenders and in fact has less experience in elected office than Obama.  He certainly has passed more important legislation in the Illinois State Legislature, in terms of health care and criminal justice, than Hillary has come close to accomplishing in the U.S. Senate.  In any case, her 'great experience' led her to vote three times to support Bush's war effort in the Middle East so quite frankly what good is touting experience in terms of time spent, if you've been asleep at the wheel.

Finally, the electability issue smacks of racism to me.  People who wouldn't vote for Obama because he is black wouldn't be very likely to vote for a woman anyway.  Also something tells me that all of those people for whom those issues would be a consideration, belong to the party of intollerence, namely the Republicans (who have will have a choice between Neanderthals or Austalopithicus types on their side - oh wait they don't believe in evolution do they?)  This election will turn on the vote of independents (as do all elections) and I'm sure that they will vote for competency, integrity and hope.  To me that spells Barack Obama.
Obama '08
If you eliminated every candidate from eligibility for public office based on drug use or any other indescretion of youth, there would be 3 folks on capitol hill. Those who are so sanctimonious about such things, are typically the same ones patting their feet in the Minnesota airport men's room. To those who want a candidate without blemish or stain...go find Jesus, and see if he's dumb enough to jump into this race.
The Establishment is so PISSED off at Barack for continuing the Awakening of N0V-2006. Damn him for giving the American voter the chance to take back this country before the Establishment can recklessly piss away all that this country stood for for over 200 years.The Establishment, thru there backing of Hillary has tryed & tryed to shake this man from the Voter's. So far. he has SMACKED them down every step of the way.He has already shown US, YOU KNOW THE VOTER'S, he has what it takes to be POTUS.Beware Barack, do NOT let your guard down for 1 second, We, the Voter's are depending on YOU to be OUR leader against the Good Ole Boys club. STAY STRONG, BE KEEN, we will be your defense as You continue the Offensive against the Establishment.


Dickie Flats & all the other Hillary supporter's, get ready, for an Ass-Whooping, there is No stopping this thing. Get on board!!!!!!!!!


" DELUSIONAL THINKING BY COMMON SENSE AMERICAN'S IS OVER
Go from your home state because they really don't want you, use your last name to succede in an election that was against nobody and now run for president, wow, only in america
Hillary is more in line with Tammy Faye Baker.
Lloyd B. (Sent Wednesday, December 12, 2007 10:36 AM)

I agree 100%.I WILL NOT SUPPORT OBAMA THE DRUG USER AND WILL NOT VOTE. AND BELIEVE ME THERE IS "ALOT" OF PEOPLE WHO FELL THIS WAY.GOOD BUY AND GOOD LUCK !
A VOTER (Sent Wednesday, December 12, 2007 11:33 AM)

Bush used drugs & alcohol and then went AWOL when it came to going to war. Bill Clinton used drugs and
he says he didn`t inhale (yeah right!)& was an adulterer.
So I guess you didn`t vote for them either.

At least he was honest enough to bring it up himself and not hide this fact.
Try getting this kind of honesty from HRC,
NO Way will she ever admit that Bill did any of that.



Go Obama 08'

I will vote for you.
When is the Dumond pardon story going to break on the MSM?  I've seen it all over this blog and many others, but it doesn't seem to be getting any traction on cable news.  He pushed the parole of a serial rapist who went on to rape again and murder! All because the Clinton-haters in his party think that rape is okay or didn't happen or was a liberal conspiracy, if it's a distant cousin of Bill's that gets raped.  This is beyond disgusting, and insanely hypocritical coming from a "man of god".  Do we really want to elect another psycho who takes his orders from a burning bush in the White House rose garden?  Come on, people, lets keep the leadership of our country at least semi-sane!
YES, YES, and YES!
I'm so glad that people are finally realizing that Obama has spent more time in elected office than Hillary.
I'm so glad that people are finally realizing that his healthcare policy is not only more American(since you still have a choice), but more responsible(as it focuses on lowering the cost).
I'm so glad that people are finally realizing that Hillary's corporate ties are not just "mud being slung at her."
I'm so glad that people are finally realizing that an African-American will never become president SO LONG as people keep saying an African-American can never get elected.
I'm so glad that people are finally realizing that Obama will take this country back and deliver it to us, the American people.   I'll take a community activist over a member of Wal-Mart's board ANYDAY.
I'm so glad that people are finally realizing that YES, we CAN have honesty and candor in politics so long as we allow it.
I'm so glad that people are finally realizing that we don't have to be Anti-Republican or Anti-Democrat, that we not only don't need, but CAN'T AFFORD another president that only leads Red America or Blue America.

We need an AMERICAN first, not a Democrat or Republican first.  We need someone who has been proven to be able to effectively reach across the isle with an olive branch and not a pitch fork.  We need someone who can not only deal with lobbyists, but someone who has PROVEN themselves to be able to give them a run for their money.
We need someone who can talk WITH us, not TO us.

Barack Obama, '08.   Are you fired up?
Sharon,

Please don't buy into this nonsense that Obama is not patriotic.  It is almost as ridiculous as the rumors that he is a Muslim.  Obama didn't have his hand over his heart during the Star Bangled Banner not the pledge of allegiance.  It turns out that it you are supposed to for the national anthem, but I didn't know that.  And I think there are a lot of Americans that don't know that considering the years of sporting event experiences I've had.  Obama has answered the call to serve his country in elected office and is a patriot.
A Brown University economist recently concluded that Iowa voters are 20 times more influential than voters in later primaries.  A victory for Obama in Iowa will set the dominos falling.  Today's NY Times has a front page article about how pathetic the Clinton Iowa campaign has been.  She's desperately trying to play catch-up and it's just too late.
I'm leaving on Friday for Western Iowa to help the Obama campaign.  This is really fun.
Obama/Webb '08
Dot,

Obama has been clear that Afghanistan and Bin Laden would be the priority for him.  So much so that he has taken heat for his comments that were meant to amp up the pressure on Pakistan.  I am reading between the lines, but it was clear then that he saw that we shouldn't be so cozy with Musharaff.  And events over the last month, have proven him correct.
iowa, get ready for the new surge. i've got my MOJO working! that's a contraction for MORE JOE biden. most everybody's ignored him so far cause he doesn't have enough monet to compete with top tier but he's on the move with ads now! he isn't a bought special interest candidate because he's got no money so how could he be? he's not controled by poll cause he voted for funding the ied safe vehicles for troops bill without an extraction date which cost him in the polls. he just a straight shooter and the most experienced candidate in foreign affairs, the domain of presidential influence! the MOJO is coming so switch from your lightweights to a real candidate, JOE BIDEN.
A poll of New Hampshire now has Obama leading... and I'm not talking about the WMUR survey: http://www.campaigndiaries.com/2007/12/early-state-polls-obama-has-lead-in-new.html
Is it over yet? Have the two parties managed to nominate two crummy candidates beholden to everyone but real Americans...trust me, it can be your baby obama or billary or huck or rudy and they will all pander to narrow slices of their respective parties to our detriment...
As an "outsider", I find your election process very intriguing. The world looks up to the democracy of the U.S. and wonders why the best person for the job is seldom realistically considered. From the outside looking in, the most qualified candidate based on overall performance would be Mr. Romney, but it appears that his faith is an issue. I say if a faith molds individuals to have integrity and to be  hardworking and successful, all the more power to it. However, that faith is only the foundation and doesn't dictate the direction a person takes. If Mr. Romney has even a chance to duplicate his success at literally saving the Olympics for you, or his track record in business and as a Governor, then your country would be hard pressed to find a better President. But again, we notice it is seldom the best person for the job that matters, but, to coin a phrase from your dialect, the most "politically correct" one. Good luck to you regardless who you choose... the world is interested and is watching.
How can anyone in their right mind support the bible beating evolution denying homophobe that is tax hike Paster Mike!  He has no real education except for bible study at a non-accredited school, and has pardoned/commuted more convicts as governor of Arkansas than his 3 predecessors combined!  His health care solution is to quarantine infected people to lepper-type colonies, and he's so wrong on the immigration issue.  He fully supports the IRaq war despite the vast majority of us who don't, and he would otherwise turn this nation into an Iran-style theocracy.  If elected, women, better get fitted for the christian equivalent of a berka, a house dress mumu.
Kelly

Thanks for response.  You are the second blogger to point out Senator Obama's comments, which are a plus on his side for me.
I think the multiple polls show the fluidity in the race. National polls -- which reflect to a greater degree a candidate's name recognition and not a belief in or support of his or positions -- don't mean much at this point. The key is in the individual states, and there Sen. Obama is surging.

It's time we thank the Clintons for their service in the 1990s and remind them we've already crossed the bridge to the 21st century and don't need to go back to cross it again. In 2008, we need someone different at the helm. And after the failures of the Republicans to take us anywhere productive -- except to a costly war, a confused economy, divisive immigration policy, No Child Left Behind (aka the "rapture of education)," torture as national policy, the failures of Katrina and FEMA, you get the idea -- we need to make a drastic change and try something and someone different. Hillary Clinton is not different, just more of the same. That's why Senator Barack Obama is the choice this year.

OBAMA/EDWARDS '08
DownUnder,
Mitt Romney was my governor for four years.
He IS a good Christian, he DID save the Olympics, and he DID do great in business.
However, his own undoing came by his own hands.. or rather, his own lips.  His opinion on many positions have changed DRAMATICALLY, as in.. a complete 180 turn.  That's why he won't win.
A vote for Hillary is a vote for Bill. Who will be running the country? And we certainly don't need to define "IS" in this scenario! On the other hand, Obama brings a fresh new "lens" to examine our problems for real time solutions.
From Campaign Diaries:

'...Early-state polls: Obama has a lead in New Hampshire

Every politico who has been following the race knows how shocking that headline is. Obama has a lead in a New Hampshire poll. But before commenting any further, let's go to the polls. First, we get contrasting polls in the Iowa Democratic race.


Rasmussen has Clinton at 29%, followed by Obama at 26% and Edwards at 22%. Richardson is at 7%.
Two weeks ago, it was Clinton at 27%, Obama at 25%, and Edwards at 22%.
Other interesting internals: Among voters certain they will vote, Obama leads 27% to Clinton's 26%. Among voters who are certain of their choice, Clinton is ahead 31% to Obama's 25% and Edwards's 21%.
But the bad news for Clinton: When asked for their second choice, Richardson, Biden, Dodd and Kucinich backers choose Edwards by 29%, Obama by 24% and Clinton by 15%.

But Strategic Vision has very different numbers: Obama is at 33%, with Clinton at 12% and Edwards at 24%. A week ago, it was 32-25-25.
Among Republican, strategic Vision shows Romney within striking distance, as Huckabee is ahead 30% to 25% with Thompson at 13% and Giuliani at 10%.
Then, we get two polls from New Hampshire -- including one for the GOP:


In Rasmussen's poll, Obama is on top 31% to 28%, with Edwards at 17%. Richardson is at 8%. In the last NH poll, Clinton still had a 7% lead -- though that was her first single-digits lead.
Meanwhile, a CNN poll has Clinton at 31% and Obama at 30%. In the last survey, it was 36% to 22%, a huge change in a mere few weeks.

Among Republicans, CNN has some numbers: Romney holds on at 32%, followed by Giuliani and MCCain at 19%. Huckabee fails to catch fire here, still at 9%.
Finally, South Carolina:


SUSA released a South Carolina poll last night and it has Clinton collapsing here as well: She leads 44% to 40%, with Edwards at 11%. A month ago, it was 47% to 33%.
The Iowa polls are contradictory, and we already knew the state was a complete toss-up in which most anything can happen -- though congrats for Obama for an 8% lead which I believe is the largest he's ever had in the state. But what a catastrophe in New Hampshire (and, to a lesser degree, in South Carolina, where she had as big, though less consistent, of a lead)! (courtesy of Pollster.com's New Hampshire poll listings) since a May Zogby poll in which Obama was up 24-23. Since then, Clinton spent 4 months rising to a very consistent 20+ lead... only to see it slowly evaporate over the past 6 weeks: all polls we had seen over the past 14 days had her down to single-digits, and now the race is a complete toss-up.

If the race stabilizes a bit now (and can we really expect Clinton to slide more at this point?), it basically means that the winner of Iowa will carry New Hampshire. Except, of course, if Edwards triumphs in the caucuses, because then it's anyone's guess what is going on in New Hampshire. Forget any talk of a Clinton firewall, there is no more of that. Perhaps Florida will be one, but no one will compete there -- so Clinton cannot just win in that state and be content. She will have to fight for the win in every single state, and if she starts losing in Iowa she could very well find herself in a hole before she even realizes it....;

Hillary is TOAST !!

The way this thing is dragging out, we might all need drugs by the end of this madness....
jerry/corpus christi texas (Sent Wednesday, December 12, 2007 11:53 AM)

I couldn't agree more!
Dickie Flatts, Charlotte, NC: '...This race will turn on electability.  There is no doubt in my mind....'

The most electable candidate will probably win Iowa !!
The most electable candidate will probably win NS and SC !!

I wonder who that will be ??
Any idea, Dickie ??
I would like to know if this was a voter only poll, or if it included people who are underage, or otherwise ineligible to participate in the caucuses. Either way, I doubt if 600 people can accurately reflect the pulse of an entire state. Itlooks like shoddy research work to me.
The main issues with regard to who should be the Democratic Nominee are; a)qualifications & experience b) connectivity to the Base of Democratic voters and the core values of the Democratic party, and c)electability.
Hillary scores higher than Obama in all three catagories.
Obama supporters are trying to sell Democrats on the idea of his experience in elected office, and the notion that he passed "healthcare reform" in Illinois.
However, Obama's experience in public office comes from within the Illinois State Senate. (9 years) One can hardly compare that to Hillary's 7 years in The United States Senate, during the most tumultuous period in the last 40 years.
Furthermore, Obama's healthcare initiative in Illinois did not, unto itself, assure coverage for anyone. All the measure did was to call for the establishment of studies, and task forces to look into the Illinois "healthcare system." The findings and conclusions of which were not due until the middle of this year. If you "google" 'Healthcare Justice Act' it will confirm what I am saying here.
The war in Iraq continues to be an issue.
On the other hand, those who scream loudest about not voting to authorize the use of force in Iraq (Obama, Kucinich, Paul), come from areas of the country that watched 911 on TV.
Hillary represents the victims of 911, their families, aned the people who lived through it. She had, and still has a contitutional obligation to jealously represent her constituency, and to do what is right to protect them.
We were all sold a bill of goods in Iraq, as were both Republicans & Democrats in congress.
The issue now is, how to get our people home, safely and without handing the region back over to extremist Islamic interests who could/would use it as a staging area for international terrorism.
Hillary has a plan to bring our troops home, while leaving behind only enough to secure American Embassies and Consulates, and enough to act as a light response force if needed.
The idea that we're going to bring home a division per month, until all of our troops are out, may not be realistic if we intend to maintain diplomatic relations and to trade with Iraq when the war is over.
Additionally, the issue of who should actually be choosing The Democratic Nominee has come up over the course of the last few days. It would seem as though so called "independents," who ditched the Democratic Party in favor of Nader and Cobb in the last two national elections, are the biggest group who support Obama.
Independents should not be choosing our candidate for us. WE should be choosing our candidate, and we should be doing so according to how closely within the parameters of core Democratic values each candidate fits.
If independents want a candidate, they can run one on their own.....just as they did in 2000 and 2004.
The last thing I want to bring up here is the issue of race. I see the Oprah-ma crowd is getting a little itchy, and has "telegraphed" their intention to throw the race card down whenever the going gets tough.
We've already been called "racists" either tacitly, or overtly for questioning Oprah's motivations in supporting Obama.
The next thing is, that we are going to be called racists if we don't vote for Obama.
Calling someone a racist, isn't going to make them vote for your candidate. In fact it is highly likely to work against the parties or individuals who do it.
I hate to see elections polarized in that fashion. I don't think we should be voting for or against anyone on the basis of race, color creed, religion, national origin or sex.
But, that's where this thing is headed, and it's the very reason why Obama shouldn't be the party's nominee. That sort of divisive tactic will alienate crossover voters and cost us the election at the national level.
I'm sure their will be some commentary in response to my post. I just hope that it's civil and politely tempered, instead of the usual vitriolic, hateful, and vicious attacks we get from Obama supporters.
Thank You For Your Time

HILLARY 2008! ***Experience Counts***



Hey J Merle! I read (all of) your post. I guess we will just have to agree to disagree. I respect your passionate defense of your candidate though - she just doesn't inspire me.

P.S. I really don't think Senator Obama's race will be a major issue in the campaign. Either voters will like his message and vote for him or they won't. Either way, I don't think it will be solely because of his race.
INTERESTING READING! THANKS Tell Oprah ...OBAMA'S BACKGROUND CHECK !!!!!! I am surprised that you have not done your homework. We checked this out on "snopes.com". It is factual.  Check for yourself. Probable U.S. presidential candidate, Barack Hussein
Obama was born in Honolulu, Hawaii to Barack Hussein Obama, Sr., a black MUSLIM from Nyangoma-Kogel, Kenya and Ann Dunham, a white ATHIEST from Wichita, Kansas. Obama's parents met at the University of Hawaii. When Obama was two years old, his parents divorced. His father returned to Kenya . His mother then married Lolo Soetoro, a RADICAL Muslim from Indonesia.? When Obama was 6 years old, the family relocated to Indonesia. Obama attended a MUSLIM school in Jakarta. He also spent two years in a Catholic school. Obama t akes great care to conceal the fact that he is a Muslim. He is quick to point out that, "He was once a Muslim, but that he also attended Catholic school."  Obama's political handlers are attempting to make it appear that he is no longer Muslim.  Obama's introduction to Islam came via his father, and that this influence was temporary at best. In reality, the senior Obama returned to Kenya soon after the divorce, and never again had any direct influence over his son's education.  Lolo Soetoro, the second husband of Obama's mother, Ann Dunham, introduced his stepson to Islam. Obama was enrolled in a Wahabi school in Jakarta . Wahabism is the RADICAL teaching that is followed by the Muslim terrorists who are now waging Jihad against the western world. Since it is politically expedient to be a CHRISTIAN when seeking major public office in the United States, Barack Hussein Obama has joined the United Church of Christ in an attempt to downplay his Muslim background. ALSO, keep in mind that when he was sworn into office he DID NOT use the Holy Bible, as all of our other public officials, but instead the Koran. Let us all remain alert concerning Obama's expected presidential candidacy. The Muslims have said they plan on destroying the US from the inside out, what better way to start than at the highest evel - through the President of the United States, one of their own!!!!
Obama the Muslim! (Sent Wednesday, December 12, 2007 5:13 PM)

Interesting reading indeed. And you believe this to be factual?
".....P.S. I really don't think Senator Obama's race will be a major issue in the campaign. Either voters will like his message and vote for him or they won't. Either way, I don't think it will be solely because of his race.
Nashville_fan (Sent Wednesday, December 12, 2007 4:53 PM)....."

It won't be an issue unless Obama supporters play the race card, and make it an issue. (Which is already happening now)


Obama The Muslim....
Your post is reprehensible, and should be withdrawn from the board.
Hey First Read, where was the "screening" on that one?
Obama The Muslim....
Your post is reprehensible, and should be withdrawn from the board.
Hey First Read, where was the "screening" on that one?

J. Merle Stanley, Westchester, NY (Sent Wednesday, December 12, 2007 5:51 PM)

We finally agree on something. I knew it would happen someday.
as an independent i have made up my mind.
president-michael douglas
v. president-denzel washington
sec. of state-will smith
sec. of defense-brad pitt
sec. of health-christie brinkley
u.n. ambassador-george clooney
cheif of staff-jennifer lopez
i don't subscribe to the faith that my parents had me be a part as a child. i don't think a person religous history applies until that person has become an adult and has made that choice upon adulthood. if that was a valid point that merit attention then so would saying i wanted to be president in the kindergarden.

i think obama has a bigger problem. that is not being lured into being negative as a response to what the clinton campaign is going to try in these last few weeks.

i like how john edwards is laid back being cool.
I have to assume that the biography of Obama's life, recounted above, was written as political satire because it was just so utterly ridiculous.  It had to be a joke.  And funny it was.  I suppose that it could have been played on Fox news or Rush Limbaugh.
Obama '08
J. Merle wrote: "It won't be an issue unless Obama supporters play the race card, and make it an issue. (Which is already happening now)"

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Strange that you would say that since you seem to bring up Senator Obama's race in almost all of your posts. ;)
THIS GUY NEVER TAKES RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANYTHING...MOVE ON! VOTE FOR ANYONE ELSE!

"Barack Obama continues his hard-edged, negative campaign - against his own staff. Passing blame down to anonymous staff ranks has become something of a tic for Obama.  Obama pointed the finger at unidentified campaign schedulers when he had to address a New Hampshire firefighters union by telephone, instead of meeting with them in person. Obama told the gathering. "My staff had scheduled things and “they” couldn't wiggle out if it. And after media attention turned to the "Hillary Clinton Obama's campaign was producing bogus research memos/statements about Clinton's such as lies about having ties to the Indian-American community, Obama called the "unnecessarily caustic" document a "dumb mistake on our campaign's part" HE STARTED THE LIES AND NEGATIVE POLITICS…A former cocaine junkie and muslim. WE DO NOT WANT THIS GUY LEADING OUR GREAT COUNTRY; MAYBE LEAD HARPO PRODUCTIONS, SINCE HES OPRAHS DREAM…
Did you notice how Ron Paul, the only candidate NOT already owned by corporate America, was conveniently left off the ballot.  Whoops...  
I think Obama is neck and neck with Clinton and Edwards in Iowa. Edwards is smiling because voters tend to say they are in support of an Afro American Candidate, but when the curtain is closed behind them they vote for someone else... http://www.enewsreference.wordpress.com


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