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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Today's debate and Iowa (D)

Posted: Thursday, December 13, 2007 9:17 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:

For some inexplicable reason, Dennis Kucinich did NOT meet the Des Moines Register’s qualifications for inclusion in today's debate but Alan Keyes did. Go figure. Here's the Kucinich explanation.  

Video: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on whether or not the Democrats will play it safe in today's Iowa debate.

Speaking in New Jersey last night, Bill Clinton once again continuously repeated his argument that his wife is the true “agent of change” in the Democratic presidential field, NBC’s Andy Merten notes. But Clinton also provided a more candid glimpse of her campaign by detailing some of the challenges the organization has faced in Iowa. “Of all the states in the country, Iowa’s the most challenging one for her to start,” he said during an appearance with singer Tony Bennett and Gov. Jon Corzine in New Brunswick. “Senator Edwards has worked hard there for seven years -- he did very well there four years ago, and has been to all the counties once.” He added, Senator Obama is from a neighboring state, has had television exposure there for years, and there are thousands of Illinois students who go to school there.”

Speaking of the Hawkeye State, the Washington Post delves into the Clinton camp's worries about Iowa. "When senior advisers to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton awakened to the fact that they faced a serious problem in Iowa, they knew they needed a summit. For the divided staff, the question was where. It made sense to fly to Iowa, where support for Clinton (N.Y.) was flagging and her aides were scrambling to make up ground. But a key member of her inner circle, Harold Ickes, warned that a crowd of Arlington-based operatives descending on the Plains en masse might set off alarm bells, triggering ‘campaign in panic mode’ stories, according to two people with inside knowledge of the Clinton operation."

“In a symbolic twist, they met halfway -- in Chicago, the back yard of Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.). The irony was not lost on increasingly worried members of the Clinton team, and it was in many ways emblematic of the challenges in turning around a lumbering national organization as events unfolded to the benefit of their less experienced, and nimbler, rival."

The Post also gets James Carville on the record about something being afoot inside the campaign: “‘I don't really think there's going to be any kind of, quote, shake-up or anything like that,’ Carville said. ‘But will there be some moving around? Sure.’”

More: "The chief concern, one person with immediate knowledge of the campaign said, was that Clinton simply did not visit Iowa enough over the summer and early fall -- a common complaint in national campaigns, but one that the Clinton team was unaccustomed to. No one on her senior staff has ever been through the grueling caucus process, which emphasizes direct contact with voters and is difficult to measure through traditional polls."

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Bad enough the Clinton's are looking for anything on Obama, now she has to deal with troubles in her own staff.  

After letting Alan Keyes in for some comic relief at the GOP debate yesterday, you would think they would let Dennis in.  I hope that fool woman they had yesterday is not going to be the moderator again.  All that whip cracking she did yesterday was a laugh riot.  Hillary might not like that and complain about being picked on again.
where was Bill when Sheheen was making those crude comments about Obama?  If bill was in NH and Sheheen is known to always be by the side of the clintons, you have to wonder about this.  Was bill involved in the smear attempt?
The way this campaign has totally fallen apart due to one bad night 2 months ago, you have to wonder about Hillary's ability to be president.  She hits a little rough patch and totally falls apart.
even if Bill comes in to salavage the campaign it would be seen as Hillary is not capable of running an organization or use good judgment on her own.  and cannot handle adversity.
It will be seen as Bill having to come save her and therefore, would he have to be running a 3rd term essentially because Hillary cannot handle it when the going gets a little tough and needs Bill to bail her out?
In the meantime, all the rough patches the Obama campaign has gone through this past year, he comes out looking capable of handling adversity coolly and not getting bent out of shape.  Just steering things his way and showing incredible judgment to not panic and stay with the strategy of building his organization quietly and not letting the press rattle him.
this shows a man of real leadership who can handle what is thrown his way.
this debate may be to restrictive for the candidates to make their unique points and differences on the issues, policies and differences. we will see.

the ap poll reported today is from dec.3. the ap differs drastically from the majority of polls that have been released in the last couple of weeks. not that you can put any faith in polls.

i just wonder why they continually report late and never show changes in trends? it makes one wonder.
Here's my explanation: the NRC desperately wanted Keyes in the debate.  He makes the other candidates look less scary to Iowans than usual.
"Bill Clinton *** provided a more candid glimpse of her campaign by detailing some of the challenges the organization has faced in Iowa. “Of all the states in the country, Iowa’s the most challenging one for her to start,” * * *“Senator Edwards has worked hard there for seven years -- he did very well there four years ago, and has been to all the counties once.” He added, Senator Obama is from a neighboring state, has had television exposure there for years, and there are thousands of Illinois students who go to school there.”

I love Bill Clinton, I did not support Edwards in 04 and won't in 08. But the idea that Edwards has "worked hard [here] for seven years" is complete and utter BS.   I first met John Edwards in Atlanta Georgia at the ATLA convention, he was the key note speaker, and was amazing. I approached him afterwards, introduced myself as an active Democrat from Iowa, gave him my business card, and told him if he does run for President I would do what ever I could to help him in Iowa. This was in July of 2002. Edwards had not only not officially declared his candidacy, he had not made his way to Iowa to campaign or fund raise (for himself or local candidates). By the time his campaign contacted me (after finally opening offices in Iowa in late summer of 2003- 4 years ago- not 7!) I was already committed to John Kerry's campaign, and wasn't switching out of loyalty.

Edwards actually was one of the last to get into Iowa during the 2004 race. And he has been to Iowa more than other candidates during 2005-06, but in 07 he's actually been here less than Biden, Clinton, Dodd, Obama and Richardson. He also isn't the only candidate to have been to each of Iowa's 99 counties.

Clinton has an Iowa problem, she has always had an Iowa problem, one of her strategist penned a memo in May suggesting they skip Iowa because she doesn't play well in Iowa. When the memo was leaked she discounted it, and has tried hard to do well in Iowa. Clinton never was doing as well in Iowa as polls indicated. Bill can try and re-write history, but the reason she hasn't done as well, isn't because Edwards or Obama, it is the candidate herself. Most caucus going Iowa Democrats don't think she can win a general election. Most Iowa Democrats don't appreciate her failing to take questions at events, and then when she did, they were planted, or she gave a non-answer response.

When Hillary comes in third or fourth in Iowa it won't be because of Edwards, Obama, Biden, Dodd etc... It will because of Hillary.
GO OBAMA....

The momentum that Sen. Obama has is the result of his hardwork and sonsistent effort to tell his Story and his vision for America. Some people say ( including you-MSM-guys) that he is less experienced. Well, I don't know how you measure experience but Sen OBAMA has a longer track record of being elected for an office than that of Sen Clinton. So, I don't really buy the argument that he is less experienced. May be less time in Washington DC? sure, but that does not guarantee that he will be sucessful. Case in point, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, etc have long resume in washington, but I don't see them doing real things that affect the common people. On the contrary, Sen Obama has done a lot in his 25 years of public service. The accomplishements are better than Hillary and other candidates. So tell me what legislation did Hillary worked on and passed that affect the lives of ordinary American? Where is the track record????

I would say Sen Barack Obama has a better chance of getting things done in this country and I am sold on him just because of that.

thanks,

Daniel, IOWA
GO OBAMA....

The momentum that Sen. Obama has is the result of his hardwork and sonsistent effort to tell his Story and his vision for America. Some people say ( including you-MSM-guys) that he is less experienced. Well, I don't know how you measure experience but Sen OBAMA has a longer track record of being elected for an office than that of Sen Clinton. So, I don't really buy the argument that he is less experienced. May be less time in Washington DC? sure, but that does not guarantee that he will be sucessful. Case in point, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, etc have long resume in washington, but I don't see them doing real things that affect the common people. On the contrary, Sen Obama has done a lot in his 25 years of public service. The accomplishements are better than Hillary and other candidates. So tell me what legislation did Hillary worked on and passed that affect the lives of ordinary American? Where is the track record????

I would say Sen Barack Obama has a better chance of getting things done in this country and I am sold on him just because of that.

thanks,

Daniel, IOWA
If the NPR debate held a few weeks ago is any indication, this debate might be a snooze-fest . . . I'll be surprised if anybody says anything that we haven't heard before. (Here's hoping I'm wrong! :>)
THERE WILL NO WAY IN HELL THAT A BLACK WILL BE PESIDENT OF THIS COUNTRY.IAM TIRED OF THEM SAYING AFRICAN AMERICAN.MY GRAND PARENTS CAME FROM GERMANY.I DON'T SAY I AM GERMAN AMERICAN.I believe Pesident Teddy Roosevelt said you shall have no other name before you.So the blacks should called themselves Black American.The United states did not bring them over here.Those very Rich people bought them over as slaves.
Hey It happens... people mess up Iowa, but again to suggest that iowans should some how be the voice and the be all and end all of the democratic primary - is completely hog wash - Democrats should wake up (now I know iowa doesn't have much to boast about - except they are the first in the nation voters) But every four years the press makes that case that he (and yes i say HE - because Iowa has never elected a female to any position of office - except on lone sec of state) who wins Iowa wins the nomination.

It's time the democratic voters of the rest of the 49 states stand up for our right to meet candidates and vote for who we like - not who Iowa likes (a republican state by the way)...

it's a shame... and the media loves it - they love crowning victors - (like they have been doing for Hillary all year) It was a very nice story - underdog beats powerhouse clinton (could the media have created a better story?)
"For some inexplicable reason, Dennis Kucinich did NOT meet the Des Moines Register’s qualifications for inclusion in today's debate but Alan Keyes did. Go figure. "

What's inexplicable about it, First Read?  Kucinich has chosen not to have a campaign office in the state.  That was one of the prerequisites for participation in this debate.  If you don't meet the requirements, you don't get to participate.  Seems pretty simple to me.
P.S.  Although I see the point that it seems just odd that Keyes would meet the qualifications.  Maybe he has a campaign office left over from his last presidential bid?  
Dolores, an African American will be elected president next year, and people like you are going to have to learn to deal with it.  That's one of the great things about Obama's rise.  Please join the rest of us in the 21st century.
On Morning Joe this morning, they were discussing what Hillary needs do to in Iowa.  Scarborough said that she should take a page from Bill's book, and hold town halls and just talk to people - no scripts, no stump speeches, just conversation.  Scarborough noted that Hillary is very easy to like when she is just being herself, and suggested that if she were to do that, Iowans would let go of some of their reservations about her.

I'm not sure how accurate Joe is about this, but it's probably worth a try.  
From One Active Iowa Democrat to another--you are absolutely correct! I would add that if Richardson had ever put together an organization in Iowa he would have had a chance to put HC in 4th place. This is not going to happen. The only "2nd tier" candidate that is moving up in Iowa right now is Biden, but he most lieky will not finsih in the top 3. If Edwards hangs on and keeps his supporters together he has a chance of knocking HC into 3rd.
Michael:

Iowa is NOT a Republican state.  It is very much a swing state.  The last two governors have been Democrats.  We have one Democrat and one Republican in the Senate.  We have 3 Democrats in the House and 2 Republicans in the House.  In 2000, Gore defeated Bush by about 4,000 votes.  In 2004, Bush defeated Kerry by about 10,000 votes.  

Please know your facts before spouting off about Iowa.
Michael of LA you show the typical coastal close-mindedness the people in the heaertland are used to. Iowa is a R state? The Governor, BOTH chambers of the legislature are Democrats/controlled by Ds. The Congressional Delegation is majority D and the statewide office holders are majority Ds. Iowa is MORE D than your state given the fact that your Gov is a R! I won't get into what else IA has going for it. The people of IA and NH put a lot of time into being informed on the issues and take their responsibilities seroiusly. I dare say that your state could not handle being first in the nation and frankly the cost of running a campaign in your state would preclude many qualified candidates for Pres even considering a run.
It works. This year the problem is all the other states moving their contests up. The DNC and RNC need to straighten it out. Ask EVERY candidate (even those that lose) after the campaign is over and the vast majority will say IA and NH being first is good and should continue. Their staffers will agree as I have heard from many out of state staffers who have been here for any length of time: they too came to IA questioning why are we first? After being here and seeing how Iowans handle their job/role, many have said they would argue that IA should remain first.
Even though Clinton's senior staff have never been through the "grueling caucus process," it is naive to think that they, or Harold Ickes, were unaware of the caucus process in Iowa. Perhaps arrogance might be a better explanation. Hillary and her senior staff know better than to rely solely on polling numbers. Having a comfortable lead can quickly cross the line into arrogance, a dangerous place to be, as they are now figuring out. Are we to believe that Bill Clinton didn't advise Hillary to spend more time in Iowa, even if aides and staff dropped the ball?  She would most likely overcome a loss in Iowa, but it seems like an awful hard way to learn to keep one's head out of the clouds.
Dan in Iowa:  I'm not here to attack your candidate (Obama would be my third choice in the caucus behind Senators Biden and Dodd).  I must, however, challenge you on your assertion that Senator Obama has accomplished more in his years as a public servant than Senator Biden.  Biden sponsored the Biden Crime Bill in the 1990s which put an additional $100,000 law enforcement officials on the streets to combat escalating crime in America.  He also sponsored the Violence Against Women Act which provided the necessary resources and funds to fight domestic violence in this country.  He led the charge for the renewal and expansion of the Voting Rights Act over great Republican opposition ensuring future generations that every vote would be counted.  He is the only candidate to offer a workable plan for getting us out of Iraq and he actually got 74 other Senators to vote for his plan (a remarkable achievement on such a controversial issue).  No other presidential candidate during their time in the Senate (Clinton, Obama, Edwards, Dodd, or McCain) has been able to garner that kind of bipartisan support on the Iraq issue.  He led the fight to get funding for the mine-resistant V-shaped vehicles for our soldiers and marines in Iraq and Afghanistan even though it wasn't the most popular position with the democratic base.  He did it because it was the right thing to do.  He is the past chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee and was instrumental in leading the fight to stop the Bork nomination which would have been a disaster for this country.  He is the present chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and is always two steps ahead of the Bush administration when it comes to foreign affairs.  This guy commands the respect and attention of world leaders around the globe and has the ability to restore America's standing in the international community.  The President of Pakistan even takes his calls.  I don't think he's taken phone calls from Obama recently.

When Obama passes a major piece of legislation or actually chairs a legislative committee or gets 75 of his colleagues to agree with him on a plan for stablizing Iraq, then you can start comparing his accomplishments with Biden's.  Until that day comes, I think you should just stick with the "Obama is a visionary" approach.  
In the last debate, the question was asked if push comes to shove, which would take precedence, human rights or protecting the country. (Not an exact quote, but it is close.)

Senator Clinton answered quickly "Protect and defend.  Protecting the country without a doubt."  (Maybe not word for word, but it is what she meant)  I believe Senator Obama agreed.

The way I read the oath of office, the first thing the President swears to do is protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.  It seems to me that protecting our civil liberties trumps even protecting the country.  In other words, even if illegal warrantless wiretaps would save the country, the President could not use them because he or she would not be protecting and defending the constitution and the rule of law.

I would love to hear all of the candidates elaborate on this subject.
D olores Fleming.
You are absolutly correct.
the africans are all but gone now.
If you asked any black person walking the U.S.A. right now what the race is they will tell you BLACK.
As many of them do not know snot about Africa and will
tell you that they didn`t come from Africa and that the goverment never asked them or gave reason as to why the change in culture title, the whites are not olable as white Americans.
I think that that was unfair of them to lable them as they have. Their forefatheers didn`t ask to come to this country they were forced and of course they may or may have not all been from Africa as some may believe.
A lot of my friends are black and when asked (if the conversation comes up) what do you put on your applications when you fill them out, all have told me that they check other and put BLACK American as I have said they didn`t come from Africa.

Our government SUCKS BIG TIME................
Can white people just shut up about black people already!!!

Get over it slavery is over! The damage is done and continues its ugly legacy, so you haters please be quite over the sour grapes.

Are you having issue with the term African American for real? Please leave them alone already!
You people won't be happy until what exactly.....?
[Speaking in New Jersey last night, Bill Clinton once again continuously repeated his argument that his wife is the true “agent of change” in the Democratic presidential field]
**I'm not quite sure how change can come from the past.  Change, by definition, occurs in the future.
**Here's my question to you all.  How have you liked the Democratic party for the last 7-15 years?  It seems to me like Democrats have been seeking reorganization.  Keep in mind that Fmr. Pres. W.J. Clinton as the most recent President has been 'in charge' of the Democratic party for the last 15 years.  It was because of a Clinton that so many Democrats supported the initial Iraq policy and it was a different Clinton that voted for it.  The party needs new blood, new leadership and new direction.
I think Hillary Clinton secured her place as the frontrunner nationally. Once again, she was articulate, strong, and direct in all of her answers. I particularly liked her answers with regards to Energy and campaign finance reform.

I think she hit the nail on the head when she talked about "no more cowboy diplomacy" and recalling Bush's vetoes (particularly on science).

Hillary is the strongest leader up there. The others paled in comparison, in my opinion. I thought Obama seemed unsure of himself and with the exception of his one funny comment about seeking Hillary's advice, he was not direct in his answers.

I was unsure before between Hillary and Obama, but I believe Hillary is the leader we need and she can actually win the election. I don't think Obama has the strength or experience to be President.
Senator Clinton, in her campaign tactics and finances, in her bullying, arrogant treatment of the few reporters who dare to ask questions, and in her adamant refusal to admit errors in judgment, has proved that she is not fit to be a Presidential candidate.  Her approach is essentially the same as the current holder of that office -- she is simply George W. Bush, albeit with brains and breasts.
Please elect Hilary and get her out of NYS. Her ideas are flawless, her energy limitless and her passion is relentless.
I'm sick of tired of Bush, Clinton, Bush, and now Clinton? Let's change things up a bit. Two families running the country for the last 20 years is stupid.
Do lores Fleming

there is something rotten in your head. go to hospital and have it out. FYI, Obama's father was not a slave descendant. He was a foreign student and eventually a harvard scholar
Carrie, Kucinich's campaign does have an office in the state.  However, because it is based out of somebody's home (state field director Marcos Rubenstein's), and not a rented storefront, the Des Moines Register chose to exclude Kucinich.  Apparently, being efficient with resources is not allowed according to the Des Moines Register.  Shame on them for depriving the nation from hearing from the leading progressive voice in the Democratic Party (winner of the polls of both Democracy for America and the Progressive Democrats of America).


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