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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Moving the goal posts?

Posted: Friday, December 14, 2007 11:10 AM by Domenico Montanaro

From NBC’s Andy Merten
Are the Clintons highlighting Hillary’s challenges in Iowa in order to brace against the possibility of a second- or even third-place finish there? Today in Johnston, Iowa, at a rare press conference, in which the candidate took questions, Clinton spoke about some of the difficulties she has had in the Hawkeye state.
 
“I always knew it would be hard,” she said. “There’s no surprise about that. I don’t live in a neighboring state; I haven’t been here for years.” Obama is the senator from neighboring Illinois. Edwards has been a steady presence, campaigning in Iowa since his 2004 run.
 
She also went on to say her experience in Iowa is lacking, due to her husband’s decision to never campaign there, while going up against Tom Harkin in 1991 and 1992. Compare this with the former president’s remarks in New Jersey earlier this week. 

“Of all the states in the country, Iowa’s the most challenging one for her to start,” Bill Clinton told an audience at a campaign event in New Brunswick, N.J., Wednesday night. He went on to draw the same comparison to her two chief opponents, saying,  “Senator Edwards has worked hard there for seven years; he did very well there four years ago,” and continuing, “Senator Obama is from a neighboring state, has had television exposure there for three years, and there are thousands of Illinois students who go to school there, and they may caucus for the first time.”

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Take a deep breath.   Did you ever stop to think that what Clinton is stating is merely the obvious?

What she didn't say is that Iowa is also one of only a few states NEVER to have elected a female gov or Senator.
All that Hillary is interested in is to inject fear and smear:

"Kindergarten essay"
"Drug use"
And today: "a large number of students from Illinois may caucus here
Iowa is not the United States of America.  It doesn't chose the next dem nom. There are 49 other states that will do that.  So, Hillary, don't worry if you don't win Iowa.  You'll do well on the super primary day.
Moving the goal posts?  Where have we seen that before ...

Hmmm, Bush ...

Cheney ...

Iraq ...


Ice from which of the following has been detrimental to people?
a) Ice storms in Iowa
b) Ice storms in Florida
c) The ice cube that is Dick Cheney's heart
She also went on to say her experience in Iowa is lacking, due to her husband’s decision to never campaign there, while going up against Tom Harkin in 1991 and 1992.

Thought her campaign was all about being experienced..
Not hedging but, an excuse to trash her rivals - again.
You'd think she would have learned by now but, it seems along with poor judgment and timing, HRC suffers from not learning from her mistakes.
Edwards should have the most organized Iowa campaign since he has been entrenched there for years.

But I'm not buying the "neighboring state" argument. I'm sure he has his share of name recognition due to living in a neighboring state, but the people of Iowa know who Hillary Clinton is. Her husband was the president for 8 years. Obama has no advantage in that respect. And neither of them have ever campaigned there before, so they started on a level plane there as well.
Diane:

I'm sorry, where exactly is she trashing her rivals?  She stated a fact - she is not from a neighboring state, nor has she spent years in Iowa.  THAT is trashing her rivals?  

You have got to be kidding me.  
They are trying to be slick once again, trying to put something out there to diminish the impact of an Iowa win by Obama or Edwards. She didn't bring any of this up when she was ahead in the polls in Iowa. She didn't say, "Wow, I am surprised given that Obama is from neighboring state,...etc.". She said she was ahead b/c of her experience, etc. Iowa voters are the most tuned in voters and there vote does matter and show the country that they need to know more about Obama and Edwards, because alot of people that have been paying attention all year, believe that they are the best candidate!!
They are trying to be slick once again, trying to put something out there to diminish the impact of an Iowa win by Obama or Edwards. She didn't bring any of this up when she was ahead in the polls in Iowa. She didn't say, "Wow, I am surprised given that Obama is from neighboring state,...etc.". She said she was ahead b/c of her experience, etc. Iowa voters are the most tuned in voters and there vote does matter and show the country that they need to know more about Obama and Edwards, because alot of people that have been paying attention all year, believe that they are the best candidate!!
Hillary candidacy is a joke because they relied on Bill Clinton to do everything. She is toast; not only will she loose IOWA, she will also loose NH, SC, AL, GA, IL, VT, MA, MD, KY, IN, KA(Obama's parent state),DE, VA, WI, AZ and SD.
Does she ever actually stand up for HERSELF instead of trashing other people to try and make herself look better?

A couple months ago, Clinton was ahead HUGE in ALL of the early states.  Now, it doesn't look that way any more.  They're trying to hedge their bets so that when they lose Iowa, they can still act like she's still "the most electable" (the most electable loser? hmm!).  However, no one in NH or SC is going to buy it.  If she loses Iowa, and, as it may very well be turning out, if she loses Iowa by more than just 2 or 3%, she is DONE.

Fineman says it quite well at http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22217110
"" Hillary Clinton’s campaign is teetering on the brink, no matter what the meaningless national horserace numbers say. The notion that she has a post-Iowa “firewall” in New Hampshire is a fantasy, and she is in danger of losing all four early contests, including Nevada and South Carolina – probably to Sen. Barack Obama, who is now, in momentum terms, the Democratic frontrunner.""
Wow. Managing expectations. Her internal numbers must look atrocious.  How else do you explain this? She has one of the best caucusers running her Iowa team since the spring. She's moved her senior staff there and hired another 100 staffers (bringing her to 200+). And now this.... the writing must certainly be on the wall in bright, bold letters.
Here is another backlash of a negative campaign.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VXPnMflGkvI&feature=user
Carrie...you are a true sockpuppet...read you in Ben's column yesterday declaring yourself a new Clinton supporter who had just made the decision to caucus for her.   Why should anyone believe anything you or your candidate says
Hillery,

Please go back to the kitchen where you are confortable.
Bee, NH.....you must be slipping - it took you all of 5 minutes to get your Obama monologue on line. But I'm sure your busy working on your 32 other comments you'll post today. It's boring enough to hear it from Obama himself but your continual regurgitation of the Obama mantra is tiresome. Most of us are intelligent enough to form our own opinion - we don't need you to repost every pro-Obama line you can fine. So sad that yourself, the "other" Bee and Sierra, SF are so bitter....what are you possibly going to do with your time when he loses the nomination? Vote Republican?
I recall that at one point she was touting growing up in the "neighboring" state of Illinois. Seems she does not want to mention that anymore. Anyone else recall that early in the campaign, some of her "staffers" were saying they were not going to spend much time in Iowa and then Hillary came out to reassure supporters in Iowa was very important to her and she would be campaigning there. My opinion is that she is now backpedaling seeing that her support in Iowa is fading. What will be her excuse in New Hampshire?
Somebody give me the names of 3 State Senators from one of your neighboring states without looking them up.
Looks to me like there is a double standard for Hillary when compared to everyone else. Just being honest, all the Whites claiming they will vote for Obama publicly will have brain freeze in the voting booth. That's my prediction. While Obama and Hillary have split the black vote (44-44%), only 16% of white democrats say they would vote for Obama. Let's see, 16% of white Dems + 2 % of white Repubs - hummm.... looks like a wasted vote to me.
Hillery,

Please go back to the kitchen where you are confortable.

Clara M. Morgan, Orlando, FL (Sent Friday, December 14, 2007 11:44 AM)

-----------
Clara, you've obviously spent too much time in the heat of the kitchen because her name is spelled HILLARY not Hillery, and you are a sorry excuse for a woman to say what you did.  You are obviously a self-loathing woman.  Do us all a favor, and stay in the kitchen on election day, and when you have the urge to post on this blogg again, cook something instead for your man and kids.
Well it seems like Team Hillary is trying to prepare her supporters for an upcoming loss. This is great.  Just an FYI to Hillary supporters, its not too late to join a "real movement."  Obama will welcome your support and votes...Look for us at the swearing in, we'll be the ones in red shirts, Fired up and ready to Go!!!
Grace, can you send us a copy of Ben's column? I think it's been quite obvious that Carrie has been in the Hillary Corner from day one.  She's always jumping on the least bit neagtive information about Obama while simultaneous praising anything positive about Clinton. I don't think anyone truly believed that she supported Biden!
Hillery,

Please go back to the kitchen where you are confortable.

Clara M. Morgan, Orlando, FL (Sent Friday, December 14, 2007 11:44 AM)


I read the New York Sun story where she baked Bill a peach pie in 1971....
No wonder the man has an appetite.
No wonder he had to have his tubes unclogged.....
If you listen to Clinton's own words via the MSNBC Interactive "Candidates & Issues Matrix", it becomes quite clear that on every issue Hillary is a preacher of fear and gloom.  She would rather scare Americans away from other candidates than influence them with her own opinions.  This is not the type of leadership America needs or deserves.
Racism has crept into the Clintoon campaign. One has to wonder....Has it always been there? even the mice are abandoning this sinking ship. How much will Clintoon blame the republicians for her failure as a candidtate and as woman,
Hillary INC is lowering expectations. She may end up winning Iowa which would give her a strong push in NH. Look for the expectation games to be played out until c day. Edwards is going to win Iowa (do or die really for him). Obama will be second. Followed by HRC INC. If the independants vote for Obama, New Hampshire is his. If not it will be HIllary INC. South Carolina will be Obamas. Hillary INC will win Nevada. Super Tuesday will be the big day. Typically that tilts towards the establishment or candidate with momentum.
Carrie...you are a true sockpuppet...read you in Ben's column yesterday declaring yourself a new Clinton supporter who had just made the decision to caucus for her.   Why should anyone believe anything you or your candidate says

Grace

-----------------------------------------

I thought I was the only one that saw that post from the greatest pretender who claimed to like Biden.
When has race not been an issue in any election? Get real.
I live in the neighboring state. I guess I could beat Hillary in Iowa. Baloney!!!!

Several months ago, when her Iowa chair advised her to skip Iowa although, was the best advise Hillary rejected. Since then, she has fortified her efforts in Iowa. She's had as much chance as everyone else, if not more (she was first lady for 8 years).

The truth is, Iowans don't buy into all that experience crap from someone who messed up healthcare and voted for the war in Iraq.
I'm wondering why more media aren't talking about new national polls that show Edwards as the best Democrat to beat any Republican contender? Even on television the Republicans are acknowledging that they're afraid of an Edwards candidacy since he beats their candidates by up to 30 points in some polls in head-to-head national match-ups. Doesn't that seem newsworthy in an election story?
While I would vote for Hillary or Obama in the national My preference is John Edwards----and I hope he wins Iowa--------and no I would not vote for any republican----I saw what they did in congress yesterday----keep on giving the big tax breaks to the oil companies---to hell with the taxpayers.Bush is only for the big corporations and the republican Bush clones seem to be deathly afraid of him---gues they are going to line their buddies pockets until 2009
More pathetic smarm from the ever-victimized Clintons.
Well it seems like Team Hillary is trying to prepare her supporters for an upcoming loss.


Repeat in NH
Repeat in SC
Repeat in <fill in the state>

People are going thing Hillary's last name is 'Trailing' because we're going to see so many "Hillary Trailing" headlines.
Carrie...you are a true sockpuppet...read you in Ben's column yesterday declaring yourself a new Clinton supporter who had just made the decision to caucus for her.   Why should anyone believe anything you or your candidate says
Grace, (Sent Friday, December 14, 2007 11:42 AM)


I'm sorry, are you referring to me?  Who is Ben, exactly?  I have stated on this blog that I intend to caucus for Biden.
Take a deep breath.   Did you ever stop to think that what Clinton is stating is merely the obvious?

What she didn't say is that Iowa is also one of only a few states NEVER to have elected a female gov or Senator.
Dickie Flatts, Charlotte, NC


But I thought she was in it to win it.  I guess that does not apply to Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina.  Oh well, we still have NY.
Grace, can you send us a copy of Ben's column? I think it's been quite obvious that Carrie has been in the Hillary Corner from day one.  She's always jumping on the least bit neagtive information about Obama while simultaneous praising anything positive about Clinton. I don't think anyone truly believed that she supported Biden!
Alex, Fairfield, Ohio (Sent Friday, December 14, 2007 11:53 AM)

Alex:

And who are you, again?  Oh yes, just another nobody who feels the need to trash my integrity in the name of loyalty to another candidate.

Moving right past the ignorant fool...
I thought I was the only one that saw that post from the greatest pretender who claimed to like Biden.
Bee, NH (Sent Friday, December 14, 2007 12:01 PM)

And what precisely am I pretending?  That I like Biden?  Sorry, only one campaign has gotten the benefit of my bank account, and that is Biden's.  But of course, you won't believe me because you are incapable of thought that does not center around bashing Hillary or anyone who says something in defense of Hillary.

And why the hell do you feel like you have the right to question MY integrity on anything?  You do nothing but bitch about Hillary all freakin' day.  Get a damn life and shut the hell up about me.  I have not said barely two words to you in the last week because your pathetic ignorance had grated on my last nerve.  But yet you still go on and on about me.  

We like different people.  GET OVER IT.  
I'm wondering why more media aren't talking about new national polls that show Edwards as the best Democrat to beat any Republican contender? Even on television the Republicans are acknowledging that they're afraid of an Edwards candidacy since he beats their candidates by up to 30 points in some polls in head-to-head national match-ups. Doesn't that seem newsworthy in an election story?

Stephen, Los Angeles, CA (Sent Friday, December 14, 2007 12:11 PM)

Stephen,

If these polls hold true 6 months from now, then it would be pretty newsworthy. But, it is far too soon to have any national head-to-head general election polls that are truly meaningful. Yes, it is impressive and somewhat newsworthy that he does the best right now, but I don't think anyone really believes that ANY of the candidates would win by even 10%, much less the 30% that Edwards is up by.
She was the First Lady for eight years. I'm pretty sure everyone knew her in Iowa before she declared for the presidency.

Moreover, if success within a state can be determined by the amount of time you've spent in a state or the proximity to your home state, why's Hillary tied with Obama in New Hampshire?
re: "A couple months ago, Clinton was ahead HUGE in ALL of the early states."

We're re-writing history here.
Edwards led Iowa for months. Clinton started in third place.

I don't mind one bit agreeing that the polls are trending Obama's way, but some of you are dreaming if you think a loss in Iowa will be the end of Hillary Clinton in terms of the rest of the race.  
As far as I can tell from the few state polls that have been conducted more than once by a particular polling org, Clinton is holding her own.

I think, perhaps, you don't know the woman, nor do you know her supporters.
(Clinton Haters, you may chime in at this point with some of your childish commentary.  Will we read -- yet again -- about how soooooo many of you will NEVER vote for HRC. WHO do you think actually cares who you will NOT vote for?
I won't be voting for John Edwards in the general if he wins the D primary -- does anyone care???)

JE supporters: If Edwards doesn't come in first in Iowa, is he done?  How about if Edwards only comes in second? Is he done?  Third?

If Obama doesn't come in first, second or third in Iowa, is HE done?

Why in the world would anyone think that if Clinton doesn't come in first in Iowa, she's done?
She has $68 million dollars in cash on hand.  But for Obama, none of the other candidates have even raised that much, nevermind have it on hand.

Do you really think Hillary Clinton has to win Iowa to be competitive in the primary?  The top three will go as far as their funds will take them.  
For Edwards, that's to NH.
For Obama and Clinton, that's to Super Tuesday.  
The rest need some help in Iowa to go on.
End of story.
Carrie,

I read your endorsement of Hillary Clinton in Ben Smith's blog. Why are you lieing? I'll find it in a minute.
I have never voted for a Republican, but if Hiliary wins the nomination then I am either not voting at all or voting for the Republican (depending on who wins their nomination)...
I dont think her comments today about calling her campaign and asking if there was a shake up going on, becuz she did not know about a shake up, will lend themselves to further derision about her inability to manage her own campaign and further the questions about her true "experience" and ability to lead. Seems like we may be witnessing an implosion. PS Does anyone think Bill is helping with his mostly self serving comments? My opinion is that he is secretly loving this.
Obama and the republican party can have each other ,work with those A holes who are destoying the constitution.Not a chance and if you think obama has one without hilliarys supporters in the general you are making a mistake.But then again its working just the way the puckers want it to ,why else is Joe scarmymindboro and Karl rove care about the democrats choice except they know they are up for a fight in the general election if hilliarys in, if obama cant handle negetive ads from hill wait to see What the dirty tricks office of the republican party"OPEN since 1968" hits him with drug use remember the I DIDNT INHALE  
A new South Carolina poll has: (1) Clinton holding on to a commanding lead -- though the black vote is now tied, and (2) leading Giuliani in the general election!! Link: http://www.campaigndiaries.com/2007/12/morning-polls-nh-and-fl-shuffle-and.html
Clinton will likely come in third, they can handle that, what really scares them if she comes in fourth. They know it is possible.Third they can explain away, and are already trying to do Obama lives next door, Edwards has lived here since 04 (even though she has been in Iowa far more than Edwards has in 07), but if she comes in a close 4th, how does she explain that?
Her campaign is thoroughly based off of successes that her and Bill obtained while fighting off a Republican led attack group for 8 years. Secondly, experience running the country does not mean that someone won every state in the nomination process, nobody ever has - especially because she was on the campaign trail with Bill in the 90s, and they never went to Iowa. So, yes, she is inexperience in dealing with Iowa's very unique politics. Jerry, I'm sorry, but your fascination and obsession with Hillary Clinton is somewhat unnerving. Remember how Bush's whole rhetoric against Kerry was running for something, not running against someone else; your posts are useless, you have no insight and you have no platforms on anything in politics that you've commented on aside from Hillary and Bills public and private life.

There are tons of candidates, how about deciding what you like in a candidate? Karma's coming around quick, and you're going to have an insane amount of backtracking when your childish posts become the thought opinion of the vast minority of Americans... you know, like people who support Bush.

Oh, wait, you're in that group too. How sickeningly not surprising.
CLINTON WILL WIN IOWA, DON'T YOU WORRY YOU LITTLE HEADS ABOUT IT.DON'T WORRY BE HAPPY..hillaryclinton.com The express train is ah movin' "full speed" ahead.


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