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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Oh-eight (R): Rudy's Mo' problem?

Posted: Tuesday, December 18, 2007 9:09 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under:

USA Today on the new USA Today/Gallup poll: “Former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani continues to lead, supported by 27% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents… Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee was second among Republicans, at 16%. Tied at 14% were Arizona Sen. John McCain, former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.”

GIULIANI: “The increased attention Rudy Giuliani has been giving to New Hampshire doesn't seem to be paying off.” More: “Pinning his hopes on big states that come later in the primary season, the former New York mayor is struggling to regain momentum after a series of setbacks. The next month could provide a severe test for his unorthodox approach to winning the GOP nomination.”

The New York Sun takes a look at the campaign's decision to cut its New Hampshire ad buy in half. "Giuliani's decision to largely abandon the early voting state of New Hampshire and concentrate his efforts on the Florida primary three weeks later reflects an uncomfortable truth for the former New York mayor: The more he campaigned in the Granite State and the more he spent on advertising there, the more his poll numbers dropped."

McClatchy catches on to Giuliani's problems and pegs it on the issue shift in the electorate.
The recent reduction in violence in Iraq may be hurting Giuliani. Toughness against terrorism is the cornerstone of his campaign. But Americans believe that President Bush's Iraq troop-increase plan is working, and that's lowering their concerns about terrorism, [pollster Brad] Coker said. ‘Iraq and terrorism are down in importance,’ Coker said. ‘That hurts Giuliani.’”

HUCKABEE: The candidate defended himself against the “soft on crime” label a new Romney ad puts on him. "The difference between us is that I did something he never had to do. I carried out the death penalty 16 times, more than any other governor in my state's history," Huckabee told reporters in Los Angeles before attending a Beverly Hills fundraiser. "That's hardly soft on crime when you make that tough decision and actually carry it out.”

NBC's Lauren Appelbaum and Ben Weltman watched Huckabee on "Larry King" so you didn't have to. Regarding his criticism of Bush on foreign policy, Huckabee responded that he will not apologize to Bush, even though Romney said he should. "I love the President personally," he said. "I think he's done far more things right than he's done wrong. I've campaigned for him every time he ran. I agree with him more than I disagree with him. But when I disagree with him, I need to be honest about it."
 
King and Huckabee also discussed Cuba and Fidel Castro. "Even if he gives it up, if his brother gets it, we're not going to see any significant changes," he said at the beginning of the show. "So that's the bad news for the people of Cuba." Although he once called for lifting the embargo (to help his state's rice crop), he repeated his recent statement that America needs to keep the embargo.

MCCAIN: Nashua Telegraph reports that McCain is launching a direct mail attack saying that Romney is a flip flopper that “voters can’t trust.” Last week, McCain’s camp said he wouldn’t go negative.

Yesterday's endorsements and focus on New Hampshire got McCain the extra press coverage the campaign was hoping for.

In the New York Times’ coverage of McCain's Lieberman nod, the paper notes McCain is returning to Iowa after Christmas.

On Hardball yesterday, Lieberman, who endorsed McCain on Monday, told MSNBC’s Chris Matthews that McCain would make a better president than George W. Bush.
Matthews: “Right now, without looking in the rear view mirror which is of no value to you or to me, and I've said on this show I voted for Bush the first time. I mean not everybody can see the future, ok, I mean we really can't. But looking into the future, sir, do you think John McCain will be an improvement on Bush?”
 
Lieberman: “With all respect to the incumbent, I do. And I think for two reasons. One is -- when I say John can unite the country and break through the partisanship to go back to that tradition of partisan politics ending at the water's edge which made us strong for a long time. John has strong opinions about foreign policy but he is always reaching out to try to find common ground to bring people together and I think it will be very important for him to do that. Secondly, on some of the things that the current president has just said no to, like doing anything about global warming, John has been a leader.”

NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli notes McCain got one of those "make ya squirm" questions in New Hampshire… At a town hall meeting last night, John McCain passed on a loaded question from a voter about claims that Rudy Giuliani improperly arranged travel for his then-mistress, Judith Nathan.

PAUL: The New York Times examines how the Paul campaign is using its new cash infusion: It is hiring more staffers and planning more ads in the February 5 states.

ROMNEY: The Los Angeles Times takes a look at how California Mormons are keeping a low profile in their excitement over Romney.

In its front-page profile of Romney, the New York Times traces his presidential bid to his father’s. Romney “had already made millions as the founder of a giant buyout firm. But his father wanted Mitt to follow him into politics, convinced he could unseat Senator Edward M. Kennedy in Massachusetts. ‘It was Mitt’s dad that kicked us over that one,’ Ann Romney, Mitt Romney’s wife, recalled of the losing 1994 Senate race. ‘If people understood that equation of George Romney and his impact on my life and on Mitt’s life, they wouldn’t be so curious about why Mitt is running for president. He is why Mitt is running.’”

“Romney's eyes filled with tears Monday as the Republican presidential contender recalled watching the casket of a soldier killed in Iraq return to the United States and imagined if it were one of his five sons.” More: “During a news conference afterward, Romney defended the tears, which came a day after he similarly choked up on NBC's ‘Meet the Press.’ ‘I'm a normal person, I have emotions,’ Romney told reporters. ‘I have emotion just like anyone else. I'm not ashamed of that at all.’”

THOMPSON: So McCain and Edwards are getting plenty of comeback kid like stories but Thompson hasn't gotten yet. Will he by the end of this Iowa blitz?

Rep. Steve King, who the Des Moines Register writes, “pretty much owns western Iowa” endorsed Thompson yesterday. But it wasn’t clear until King officially announced if it was going to be Romney or Thompson.

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Comments

Clinton is widening her lead while at the same time the Democrats begin to focus on electability.  That is a death sentence for Obama.   By wide margains polling of likely Democratic voters find that they feel Hillary Rodham Clinton is more electable in a general, and has a better chance of beating the Republican, than does Barack Hussein Obama.
Can Romney be anymore fake?  Now he's going to start artificially tearing up during every interview so people will think he's compassionate and a "normal person"?  

Maybe he's really tearing up because his campaign has spent $70mil (including over $20mil of his own money), and Mike Huckabee and his $3mil campaign has passed him up.  That would certainly  make me cry...
Anyone interested in what Huckabee is really like face to face should try this funny (but it actually happened) column:
http://goupstate.us/index.php/lanefiller/2007/11/02/title_14

Why is there a news blackout on Ron Paul? Ron Paul raised more money in one day than any candidate in history, without even securing the Republican nomination, yet this blog devotes one sentence to him, which is only to say go look somewhere else for more information.....
McCain would be better than 'Dubya', heck my dog could do a better job than the boy king!
The economy is leaking out slowly and Georgie makes a surprise visit to a rotary club to look like he is engaged in the process, his veto threat on raising taxes got zero reaction from the audience, his playbook is tattered and dog-eared. Lame duck may not expalin it anymore, how about cooked goose.
Is Fred still running?
Rudy is a political black hole, everything that goes in does not come back out, can we now say he is empty and will implode quickly.
No front runner yet because the candidates are all doing the same dance, "I am the new one BUT I still love Georgie". Having to carry the repub albatross is killing them all.
There is the only 1 choice.  Money talks and MSM walks.  Lets see a comparison of all campaigns donation totals, R and D, side by side.  Excluding the candidates own donations and all federal matching money.
Ron Paul is the real peoples choice and not an underdog at the bottom of a paid/skewed poll.
An amazing occurrence is happening all across the USA.  Let FREEDOM RING....
WAKE UP!!!!!
6.3 million dollars in 1 day.  THATS A HEADLINE.
Rudy never was a player. He was never more than a shill for the neo-conservative party. Let us look at who is now surfacing. The christian based candidates who get their strongest support from the silent majority. The Rupert Murdock machine might have wanted Rudy at the helm because he is as corrupt as bush and could be bought would be for a bad song, but people in general are paying more attention to this election because they now know how much damage a bad President can do.
I will vote for Barack Hussein Obama.  He is authentic, sincere, pragmatic, sober and of sound judgement.  I don't care about his race or name.  It is the person.  He is an American and his ideas and vision for this country is refreshing.  But if Hillary is nominated I will vote Republican to save this Republic from dynastic rule.  Bush, Clinton, Clinton, Bush, Bush, then another 8 years of Clinton Hillary!  That is stretching coronation to unaccpetable limits in a Republican democracy.
Dickie Flatts...what polls have you been reading? Talk about un-informed! Typical left wing lib. Wake up!
All I know is I would not be depressed at ALL if Giuliani did not make it as the Nominee of the GOP.  Of all of them, he is the one whose Presidency will take you back to a total lack of diplomacy this Administration has embraced so well.
i don't like that so and so in the media watched the larry king interview so you don't have to. if people would actually listen to what huckabee says instead of letting the press tell you what he says he'd be doing even better then he is now. not that anything bad was said, but i'd recommend watching the whole broadcast. he rebutted a lot of stupid allegations against him very well, and presented a good message. my father in law was an undecided voter, until he watched the interview.
For those who think that labeling Mitt Romney a "flip flopper" on abortion will disuade christians from electing him the champion of their cause, I ask, if the Apostle Paul of the New Testament were running for president today, would Christians label him a flip flopper and reject him because of his "late" conversion to Christianity?  He went from Saul, the persecutor and murderer of Christians, to Paul, the apostle and greatest missionary of the first century AD.  Compare Paul to Mitt Romney, who recently decided that government should be allowed to eliminate the legal option of abortion, even though he has always been personally opposed to abortion.  A people who can accept Paul, a converted murderer, as the champion of their religious cause will have no problem electing Mitt Romney, a converted pro choicer, as the champion of their political cause.

As a husband, father, business man, volunteer, savior of the Olympics, redeemer of Massachusetts, MITT ROMNEY IS AND ALWAYS WILL BE THE CHAMPION OF THE REPUBLICAN CAUSE.  Join me in voting for Mitt Romney on February 5th.
Yeah I couldn't tell if he was tearing up because blacks were admitted to the mormon church or if he was tearing up because blacks were admitted to the mormon church...he's'a repubic so I'm guessing its the latter...
His problems have nothing to do with MO,or FOX news machine pushing him its in the baggage he carries which prevent him from being an honest man.I was looking forward to see insult women for the rest of the campaign
Bye Rudy. Thanks for saving the world and everything.
Americans need to understand that both Dems and Repub are dying to protect our country. We are all patriotic and will defend our country. The difference is we should not follow and idiot to war just because he was elected. All these Republicans are Bush wanabees but are afraid to use his name. His failed policies have bankrupt America. He has screwed the middle class. Oil Companies, banks, credit card companies and the rich all get a pass from Bush and his cronies. McCain is probably the most honest amoung these numbnuts, just misguided and in the wrong party. Republican always run a nasty campaign. It is what they do best. So, Obama or Hillary better be prepared for the dirt. Maybe the country is seeing the real Rudy. Romney is the king of flip flopping among the leading flip floppers. We need a change in our government. One that will protect our children, our health, our retirement. All these people are worried about are Mexicans, the abortion rights and protecting special interest. Give me a break, Americans are losing their homes and Bush makes a token jesture. Lets scrap these candidates and start all over.
Mitt should be leading in Iowa and NH. He had a guy here shortly after the '06 mid-term elections, and has spent a ton of money here including his own money, which many of the other candidates don't have.

But when you boil down his stance(s), which tend to vary depending upon where hs running, he's weak.
i like barack,but,i am voting for hillary. i think it would be amazing to watch a woman at work in the white house. i would like to see her as president of the usa.
Hmm, seems one of my posts didn't get posted.

We, the GOP, need to reaffirm our core fiscal conservative principles. That is how we are going to win in '08. Not with all this "social" stuff. Rudy is best suited to do that. Go to www.clubforgrowth.org and compare for yourself.

Both Mitt and Huckabee are not fiscal conservatives. Sure Rudy had a few blemishes, but considering the make up of the New York City Council, it is understandable. Given the more balanced Federal government, he should do better.

It seems the only reason Huckabee took the jump in the polls was after the threat from Dobson.

And Rudy has more states in play than any other candidate.
Rick - I was wondering the same thing. He said he stopped his car and wept. Didn't mention if he then got on his knees to ask "Why, God?"

Got that GWB half-truth down: "If we come in arrogance, they will hate us. If we come humbly, they will love us."

True enough, probably. Too bad everyone assumed he didn't plan to "come with arrogance."

"Romney's eyes filled with tears," when, he saw a BRAVE  fallen angel & a true AMERICAN hero coming home in a casket...because, he thought of his own boy's? Mitt, what about thinking of this young man and his grieving family. To think you imagine instead it could be one of your own son's...Mitt, now this is behind even your usual flip/flop. Are you aware that it could never be one of your son's...for NOT one of your boy's ever served their country. Amazing, out of five young, bright and healthy boy's ...not ONE of your son's have fought to protect our Freedom. Like father like son's...BTW: My heart goes out to this young man's family and loves one God bless him & may he rest in peace. Ann B.
Rudy is at best an exagerator and a plain flip flop liar. He believes in a woman right to choose, but will appoint justices who will change the law of the land. Give me a break. Among the candidates he is the nastiest and will destroy our country. When the Grammies refused to let him on stage, he had a temper tantrum and threaten to ticket all their cars. So they move to L.A. The rest of the country has no idea how vindictive Rudy is. Covering up payments for a mistress nobody even knew existed. There are no documented threats against her. This man should be an ambulance chaser and Americans are considering making him the president.  God help us !
Huckabee is officially not getting my vote. The more I learn of him the less I like him. Turns out, he's as liberal as they come on taxes and immigration. Also, I recently learned that he gave over 1000 commutations and pardons as Governor..including the pardon of 12 people convicted of murder. This guy may sound good but has a terrible record.
Describing American foreign policy as an 'arrogant, bunker mentality' really helps the United States in the world.  Gee, I'd like to thank Mike Huckabee and all the other Democrats for all their helpful remarks on U.S. foreign policy over the last few years during a time of war in two countries, and a struggle against terrorists all over the world.  It has been comments like, "arrogant, bunker mentality" that have so helped us against the enemies of the United States, that have really helped to get people in other countries behind us (with, for example, molotov cocktails to throw at us).  
It is a sad day when people compare these idiots to the Apostles. Paul changed because of his moral conviction. Mitt and Rudy changed only because he needed votes from evandgelly's. Paul and Jesus would cast stones on all these hypocrites.
Americans need to vote for someone who will change the misguided polices of the last 8 years of Repubs. The current Repub. members and Bush have block any attempts to clean their mess and have the balls to blame the people who want change. He and them do not even care about health care for children. Give me a break.
Please Jacktar, don't put Huck in our corner, He's all yours, enjoy him, we do!
"Gee, I'd like to thank Mike Huckabee and all the other Democrats for all their helpful remarks "


You're OK with the lies and war crimes? So glad. Yup - it's all the fault of everyone who ever said "arrogant bunker mentality."  

THANK YOU, neocon, for the dirt bag president and not blaming anything on him.
As someone who doesn't vote, it's funny to see what people are doing and saying about each candidate.  When you think about it, neither the republicans or the democrats seem to have anything to offer, and i can see alot more criticism's about the next president to come.
Dems:  ok so the only two you got to think about are Hillary and Obama.  Hillary has very scary ideas about the country and seems to be more about being the first female president than actually being a good one.  Just the fact that she was yawning and bored when she visited ground zero after 9/11, shows how much she didn't care about her state or country.  Obama on the other hand is unexperienced.  Like Hillary his ideas don't seem that great and he doesn't seem to be very consistent.  
Reps:ok so many people here, i'll go quickly.  Huckabee, indecisive and does not have great ideas. McCain, a veteran and seems more like a general president like Grant than one that will change.  Haven't heard too much from him that was big, except his Iraq views.  Paul, ok so he came out of nowhere and got some crazy followers that keep putting pauls name all over the place.  He doesn't seem great at all, his views are pretty much the same as his fellow reps, just a little different, but nothing stand out about him.  Rommey, ok well one word to sum him up really, religion.  That's the only thing that stands out about him.  People are crazy about him because of his religion.  Thomson, not too much about him is good, hell not too much about him is known.  No offense but i don't think he has much of a chance, just because he's not very well known everywhere.  Edwards, so he ran with Kerry the other year and well there wasn't much great with him then, not much has changed since.  Another one that i believe is too unexperienced to be president.  Giuliani, ok i would say he's the one being bashed the most, some of his views seem to have hatched from bush's plans, the only thing good about him is he's the only candidate that has experience running something that effects people, and well he was there for 9/11 too which was tough for any mayor(but many complain about what he did and did not do).  

So out of this you have people who are running to be in the history books and others that are running because they thought, "hey i got nothing better to do right now anyways".  The sad part about all this is the PEOPLE who are voting.  Many won't look at who's views are better, or who can do a better job as a resident, they will only look at who the person is.  It really shows how this election is going to split the country to pieces.  Poeple will vote for hillary or Obama or Rommey just because of their race, gender, or religion, not much else.  Also people will probably elect a democrat because they didn't like bush and figure the next pres., by being democrat, will save the country.  Well good luck with the higher taxes, bad medical coverage, and a war that will continue to haunt this nation.  Republicans won't be better, less money for the country, more unemployment, less education.  

This country need to forget it's stupid ideas of democratic and republican ideas and just elect someone that will do a good job.  If God was a liberal no one would elect him, because they would all stay with their ideas of "i'm a republican/democrat and only republicans/democrats can save this nation"
This is perhaps the most uninspiring group of candidates I have ever seen, which is probably why there is no true leader. Giuliani is the closest thing to a reasonable Republican, which is why the immoderate Christian right will never let him get the nomination. Bush has furthered the division of this country like no other president and has made this country the laughingstock of the world. One can only hope that a right-wing radical--yes, radical--like Huckabee gets the nomination so that the real majority of this country--the people who care more about what direction our nation is going in--healthcare for those who need it, a real war on terror, not a trillion -dollar boondoggle on a religious civil war, a scientific approach to solving global warming, alternative fuels, as opposed to  trivia like abortion and gay marriage can perhaps get things done. Yes, I am a liberal: it's not a dirty word the way some bandy it about as such. I am conflicted about the Democrat candidates: I consider Hillary morally compromised and I don't know that Obama has the experience or gravitas necessary, but I will vote for either one of them in a heartbeat over any fear-mongering, socially backwards GOP posturer. What is truly sad is that there is no one to bring us together...
from the last comment:
"this is perhaps the most uninspiring group of candidates..."
Does not it tell  where and how we, Americans, are? Very depressing, for it's very true.
We have the parade of false ( repetitive) words, false eyes and faces ( some even surgically  lifted) and the true determonation of each one to keep us on the road to Hell, we still pretend to enjoy.
There are two [eople with the good and true intentions: Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich. Both, we are told, are "not electable", for the burden to take us from this road is too heavy for Paul's or Dennis' shoulders.



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