First thoughts: Back to the future?
Posted: Tuesday, December 18, 2007 9:19 AM by Mark Murray
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
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Back to the future: Both McCain and Edwards are trying very hard to recapture the magic of their previous campaigns. On TODAY this morning, Edwards talked up his Iowa momentum, telling NBC’s David Gregory that he’s “seen this before.” Meanwhile, McCain -- with his Joe Lieberman endorsement -- tried to recapture his Bill Bradley moment from the 2000 campaign in New Hampshire. There is anecdotal evidence that both do have some momentum in Iowa and New Hampshire (respectively), but is it the same as they experienced previously -- or are folks trying too hard to find comparisons? Then again, even if the comparisons are correct, those 2000 and 2004 campaigns didn’t end in victory, did they? Also, don’t miss the news that McCain is now going after Romney (via direct mail) in New Hampshire…
*** Obama vs. Edwards: How many people saw this coming? The big development yesterday was Obama's direct -- yet gentle (as the New York Times put it) -- hit on Edwards on his lack of taking on special interests when he served in the Senate. On TODAY, Edwards responded by citing his work to pass the Patients’ Bill or Rights. “I like Barack. Just on this case, he’s dead wrong.” It seems like someone's moving in the polls, huh? Does Obama risk hurting his own favorable ratings by hitting the guy whom Iowans view with enormous affection? In this odd game of three-dimensional caucus chess, is this about Obama worrying that 1) Edwards is doing well in second-choice polling, or 2) doing well in some of the more rural parts of the state -- places where Obama thinks he could do well if it weren't for Edwards.
*** When issues change: Just asking: Has anything had more of an effect on the fortunes of the respective fields than the shift in focus from key national security issues to domestic and character ones? When national security was Topic A in each primary, Clinton was becoming a stronger and stronger front-runner, and Giuliani was looking like a realistic nominee. Now?
*** I’m getting verklempft: Anyone else notice that both Romney and Clinton have been showing their emotions more on the campaign trail as of late? It certainly helps to show these candidates’ softer sides. Both candidates were running so-called "textbook" campaigns that were really working for most of the year. But as the campaign has shifted away from tactics and issues, both Romney and Clinton saw themselves get eclipsed in Iowa by the more personable candidates. But can either candidate sell emotion? It's never been either's strong suit. The danger for both is whether voters -- and the press -- see the emotion and softer sides as genuine or a new campaign tactic.
*** On the trail: Clinton campaigns in Iowa before heading to Chicago for a fundraiser; Dodd is also in the Hawkeye State, where he begins his “12 Days of Results” tour; Edwards travels to New Hampshire, where he hits three town halls with Bonnie Raitt and Jackson Browne; Giuliani raises money in New York City; Huckabee is in Texas, where he holds a media avail and raises money; Kucinich spends his day in New Hampshire; McCain also stumps in the Granite State; Obama holds a foreign policy forum in Des Moines, IA; Paul conducts interviews with the media; Richardson campaigns in both Iowa and New Hampshire; Romney is in South Carolina and Georgia; and Thompson stumps in Iowa. Also today, Bill Clinton and Magic Johnson campaign for Hillary Clinton throughout Iowa, and Ann Romney does the same for her husband in the Hawkeye State.
*** Another Super Tuesday! And for more on these events -- and much, much more -- tune into MSNBC’s all-day Super Tuesday political coverage.
Countdown to Iowa: 16 days
Countdown to New Hampshire: 21 days
Countdown to Michigan: 28 days
Countdown to Nevada and SC GOP primary: 32 days
Countdown to SC Dem primary: 39 days
Countdown to Florida: 42 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 49 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 322 days
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