First thoughts: Up for grabs
Posted: Thursday, December 20, 2007 9:19 AM by Mark Murray
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Up for grabs: While the big headlines from the latest national NBC/WSJ poll are Giuliani’s 13-point decline (from 33% last month to 20% now) and Huck’s nine-point gain (from 8% to 17%), the real story to us is just how up for grabs the GOP field is right now. “I think there’s, at this point, no national [Republican] front-runner,” says GOP pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted the survey with Democratic pollster Peter Hart. “We have literally four or five candidates, all of whom has a chance to be the nominee.” In the poll, Giuliani and Romney are tied at 20%, Huckabee is at 17%, McCain at 14%, and Thompson at 11%. Call it a five-way tie for second with none of the above on top. The last team we saw this kind of open field was, well, four years ago -- on the Democratic side. In the NBC/WSJ poll right before the 2004 Iowa caucuses, Dean was at 24%, Clark at 19%, Lieberman at 12%, Gephardt at 11%, and Kerry (the eventual winner) at 7%.
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on the latest NBC/WSJ poll, where Rudy Giuliani's lead is plummeting and Hillary Clinton is facing high negatives.
*** As goes Iraq, so goes Rudy? One of the reasons for Giuliani’s decline is that he’s not seen as likeable to voters as he once was. Back in March, he had a 58%-14% fav/unfav rating. Now it’s 37%-37%. But, as we’ve asked before, is the focus from Iraq and terrorism to the economy and health care also dragging him down? A month ago, Iraq was cited as the highest priority for the federal government to address. In the new poll, it’s still the top issue, but the number saying that has dropped 10 points -- with health care and the economy now almost as important. In addition, of the top six issues on voters' minds, four are domestic and just two are international -- and those four domestic issues have all increased in importance this last month (health care/jobs/energy/immigration), while the two international issues have declined (Iraq/terrorism). What’s more, 56% believe there will be an economic recession in the next 12 months. According to Hart, this doesn’t help the GOP. “From my point of view, the Republicans are jumping from the pot to the frying pan. To move from Iraq to a struggling economy is not necessarily good news for the Republican Party.”
*** Mitt’s speech worked; does Obama now need to give one? Despite once leading both Iowa and New Hampshire and spending millions in the process, Romney had never popped in the national polls -- until now. His 20% is a nine-point increase since November. The reason for his movement, of course, has to be the highly publicized speech on faith he gave earlier this month. A full 60% of respondents in the survey could identify Romney's religion; all but 1% answered correctly. The question was open-ended and folks were not prompted with choices, making the 59% of folks answering correctly more remarkable. Was the purpose of that speech as much about raising his national profile as it was appealing to religious Republicans? And does Obama need to give a similar speech, especially if he becomes the Dem nominee? On a similar open-ended question, just 17% correctly identified Obama as being a Protestant (Church of Christ), 2% said he’s Catholic, 8% said he’s a Muslim, and a whopping 70% said they weren’t sure or refused to answer. Also, the poll measured various presidential peccadilloes, including whether past cocaine use is a problem: 51% said it shouldn’t disqualify someone from being president; 36% said it should. By the way, the biggest potential problem for a candidate would be IRS issues.
*** Good news, bad news for Hillary: Speaking of Obama, the Democratic field is virtually unchanged from a month ago: Clinton is at 45%, Obama is at 23%, and Edwards is at 13%; no other Democrat gets more than 4%. But this poll won’t erase concerns about Clinton’s negative ratings or her electability. Her fav/unfav is 42-44%, and Obama fares better than she does in hypothetical match-ups against Giuliani and Huckabee. Also, Obama's favorables are actually higher than Oprah's… go figure.
*** Rudy’s OK: Giuliani's medical scare last night is a reminder that the unexpected is what should be expected over the next few weeks. Word from the campaign is that doctors found nothing of concern and everything is going to be fine, although Giuliani still in hospital, NBC/NJ’s Matt Berger reports. There is no timeline for his departure, but Giuliani is supposed headed to New York City today; he was down today except for a planned fundraiser in New Jersey. Tomorrow, he was to return to New Hampshire. No word yet on whether those events will go on as planned.
*** So long, Tom? At 3:00 pm ET in Iowa today, Tancredo is supposed to give a “major announcement.” Multiple sources have told First Read that he’s expected to say that he’s withdrawing from the presidential race. As of now, it’s unclear whether he will endorse another candidate -- or who that candidate will be. If he does drop out, look for Tancredo to take credit for the fact that immigration is now the single most contentious issue in the GOP primary. As he said in a recent debate, everyone on stage was trying to "out-Tancredo Tancredo." But pro-immigration reform Simon Rosenberg (D) gives Tancredo a parting shot, pointing out that Tancredo has been getting just 1% of the vote in public polls.
*** On the trail: Not surprisingly, most everyone -- Biden, Clinton, Dodd, Edwards, Huckabee, Romney, Thompson, and Michelle Obama -- are in Iowa. Obama, Paul, and Bill Clinton are in New Hampshire. Elsewhere, Giuliani raises money in New York; Hunter is in Michigan; and McCain stumps in Baton Rouge, LA.
Countdown to Iowa: 14 days
Countdown to New Hampshire: 19 days
Countdown to Michigan: 26 days
Countdown to Nevada and SC GOP primary: 30 days
Countdown to SC Dem primary: 37 days
Countdown to Florida: 40 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 47 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 320 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 397 days
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