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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



The battle for New Hampshire

Posted: Friday, December 21, 2007 9:16 AM by Domenico Montanaro

USA Today/Gallup’s inaugural New Hampshire poll has Clinton and Obama not just statistically even -- but actually even at 32%. Edwards trails with 18%. On the GOP side, the poll has Romney just leading McCain by single digits, 34-27%. This is the first REAL evidence in a poll to back up the media's two-week attempt to find the McCain comeback story. Now, this poll helps justify that coverage.

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Obama down three, Clinton up 2 and Edwards up 3

Van

Hey Van your so-called "dramatic shift" is all within the poll's margin of error.  Without further proof in polls that come out next week (meaning sustained proof of falloff, and I might add that the ABC poll this week from Iowa SHOWED NO FALL OFF IN SUPPORT FOR OBAMA but actually showed him gaining three points from the previous poll), then your + a couple here and minus a couple there comment could be seen as nothing more than "statistical noise" signifying nothing.
Hey Obama Hater you should perhaps eat your words that nominating Obama would lead to a Republican President but nominating Clinton would be the reverse.  Zogby just came out with a poll today of head to head match ups between the top three Dems and top Repub candidates:

a new Zogby telephone poll shows.

Obama

Romney: Obama leads 53%-35%
Huckabee: Obama leads 47%-42%
Giuliani: Obama leads 48%-39%
McCain: Obama leads 47%-43%
Thompson: Obama leads 52%-36%

Clinton

Romney: Clinton leads 46%-44%
Huckabee: Huckabee leads 48%-43%
Giuliani: Giuliani leads 46%-42%
McCain: McCain leads 49%-42%
Thompson: Clinton leads 48%-42%

Edwards

Romney: Edwards leads 50%-38%
Huckabee: Edwards leads 47%-41%
Giuliani: Giuliani leads 45%-44%
McCain: McCain leads 46%-42%
Thompson: Edwards leads 51%-35%

The performance of the Democratic candidates among independent voters is notable. For instance, Clinton trails Giuliani by one point (43% for Giuliani, 42% for Clinton among independents), but Obama leads Giuliani among independents by a huge 56% to 31% edge. Edwards leads Giuliani, 52% to 38% among independents. Clinton has similar trouble among independents against McCain, in that she trails with 37% support to his 46% support. In a prospective Obama versus McCain match–up among independent voters, Obama leads, 51% to 35%. Edwards and McCain are tied at 42% apiece among independents.

As among independents, Obama is the Democrat moderates like best, but his edge among moderates over Edwards is not nearly as pronounced as with independents. For instance, against McCain, both Edwards and Obama lead, but Clinton loses badly. Obama leads McCain by a 51% to 37% edge, while Edwards leads McCain by a 47% to 41% margin.

Clinton loses to McCain among moderates, with McCain winning 51% and Clinton winning 38%.

In polling stretching back to last year, Zogby International has identified moderates and independents as key voting demographics in the 2008 election cycle.

Obama '08
Windy City Girl,
I don't think you have got it right about the Mormons believing that the Native Americans killed Jesus. Thank you for a least being able to spell MORMON correctly. Jennifer, Mormon is a nickname for the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints. Can't get any more obvious about being for Jesus in the name. For the record, quit shouting what you think you know and be quiet. Because you are wrong.
Jennifer-  The unofficial name of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints is spelled "Mormon" not "Morman"  I wondered what else you got wrong.  And Windy City Girl -  Mormons believe that "the Native Americans killed Jesus"????? That is an entirely new one to me - a Christian "Mormon."  Yes, there is some racism in our history - Do we get any credit for great strides in overcoming it as evidenced by our congregations with local leaders of all races and Temples in Africa and elsewhere.  
It takes a Clinton to clean up the mess of a Bush.

HILLARY 08!!
Look! Hillary Co. are not even president and they are already bringing people together.
Or not.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2007/12/21/unionists-slam-hypocriti_n_77899.html
Here are the numbers from today’s Survey USA poll which clearly show Hillary more competitive than Obama in red states:

Virginia: Hillary leads all GOP contenders – Obama has smaller leads against GOP candidates and is defeated by McCain.  No democrat has carried VA since 1964.

Kentucky: Hillary leads all GOP contenders except McCain –  Obama loses to all GOP candidates

Alabama – Hillary loses to GOP candidates by single digits while Obama loses to all GOP candidates by double digits.

Furthermore, Hillary is more competitive in blue states than Obama

New York – Hillary leads all GOP candidates by huge margins (in a state where they know her best) while Giuliani is tied with Obama.

Massachusetts - Hillary leads all GOP candidates by huge margins (while McCain is tied with Obama.

Just the latest of MANY polls to dispute the myth that Hillary is not electable in a general election.

And you can bet that Chris Matthews will not report on any of these polls on Hardball tonight as he continues his propaganda campaign against Hillary.
Try Real Clear Politics: they compare a number of poll results.
Judge for yourself just how accurate they are when one candidate is leading by 9 in one poll and down by 4 in another.
Hardball prefers to quote the polls favorable to Obama like some manna from heaven. Give me a break, Matthews lost his objectivity some time ago if he ever had any at all.

i am independent. i have been trying to tell the dem's we indy's think the dem's have some fine candidates. obviously, there will be some indy's that will vote for hillary (no where near the majority of us).

the bulk of us aren't going to support hillary. we will move to mccain more than likely. a few will just stay home.

republicans don't offer us a lot. john mccain or ron paul is the closest thing to morally and ethically acceptable candidate that they present.

we don't agree on his stance about the war, but john mccain or ron paul to us is better than hillary.

when it comes to the indy's i would pay attention to the polls at least to the point that they point to the fact that we will pull the majority of support from the democratic party.

i am not saying that as to inflame a bunch of negative emotions towards us indy's. i am saying that as a truth. you will find some indy's that are going to support hillary. some will support ron paul and mccain.

what dem's have to come to grips with is that the majority of indy support will be lost to the gop. not the dem's nor the gop can win the general election without the independent vote. i would strongly advise the democratic party to remember that fact.

if the dem's nominate the right candidate and you all have 4 that we would lend our support to as consideration, you will likely win the general election.

if you choose hillary you will lose the numbers of the indy vote needed to beat the gop.

dem's and repub's aren't the only ones that get together or correspond. don't think that. there is a consensus with us just like the dem's and the gop.

just like you guys we have preferences, but when it comes down to it we know who we absolutely won't get our bulk of votes. hillary and rudy can absolutely forget it.  

i guess the dem's have to ask themselves do they want to win or lose to the gop. we indy's have more choices than either party.

i know i will get some ugly stuff thrown my way be hillary and rudy supporters. it is not meant as a knock to anyone personally. it is just how the majority of us indy's are thinking.

hint: we do like biden, edwards, richardson, obama and even dodd, but we are smart enough to see that only a few will survive iowa. those wo do survive iowa will have their final test in n.h.

if most of us haven't decided after the iowa caucus we will know who we will get behind after n.h. the rest will be upon the democratic party because indy's can change horses in the middle of the stream if the dem's pick the wrong nominee.

we would hate to say we told you so. we would like to see the deocratic party win. the majority of indy's anyway.  
csh, IL (Sent Friday, December 21, 2007 3:45 PM)

And yet the fact still remains that it is still a year before the general election. There are ZERO accurate head-to-head general election polls out there right now. The candidates haven't even been chosen yet.
MK, Los Angeles, California: Head to heads for general elections prior to the nominee being selected have always been a joke...but keep quoting them.

Love Obama. Did not realize Spokane WA had so many Hillary surrogates Jennifer. I live near there and Eastern WA is majority republican and majority of Democrats are liberal enough to be happy to have someone of Obama's stature and message of change and hope to be supportive of him rather than selling the lies of the Clintons. Totally transparent Jennifer.
Friends All. First of all have a happy holidays.
A new yeas is ahead of us, a new page in the life of all Americans. We are heading into very dangerous territory if we allow the republican party to continue in  power. We are already deep to our knees bu we will have the opportunity to change. We need a strong and proven president that can face the psychological fear mongering of the Right wing cult and the Republican party. We can not allow our self to hire a trainee and to experiment with a new face just because he sounds hopeful and convincing. We had that with Bush and look where we are now. We need someone that knows the game and the machinery to win.
It does not matter which party is your favorite what really matters is the future of our nation and we want to continue the killing of our men and women just because the president don't want the apparent war while he is power. Bush don't want to be the one to end the war now because if he does he will be enter in his legacy as a looser. That is why he want to let war continue and live it to the Democrats to decide. He already suspect that the Democratic party has a very good chance to win if we elect the right individual. Question Why do you think the right wing talk shows and some in the main stream media are openly endorsing Barak Obama? because it will be the easies to defeat. I am sorry to say ' I do like Obama but is not the right time for him; he need to mature more and for that he need to return to the senate and let us know what he is made of.
Remember one thing and please do take the above as an offense, I do respect every follow American but we need to eliminate the evil that is darkening our nation and sending hate waves around the world.
We are precessing a false economy a bogus sense of security, we are borrowing from our once enemies our army is broken our cost to put food on the table has tripled our privacy has been eroded our freedom has been take away we are selling out our most precious resources to foreigner, we are helping countries with our resources and tax money so they in the future could be use our help against us. Now everywhere you go to buy an item, the item has a label made in chine, Pakistan. Taiwan, India etc. REMEMBER THIS EVERY DOLLAR WE EXPEND I A CHINA PRODUCT IS A DOLLAR EXPENDED IN REINFORCONG THIER ARMY AND THEIR POWER AGINAT US.
As our tax money leaves our nation to help other countries wars we are here paying high prices for everything we buy.

I can continue on and on. I just want you all to take time to think before you cast your vote.
Again happy holidays.
Jose
Jose Alemar:  Happy holidays.  I appreciate your concern but disagree with your conclusions.  Hillary is in fact the easiest candidate for the Republicans to beat (see recent Zogby polls); they (the demon Republicans) salivate at the prospect of running against her (remember the people who would vote against Barack because he is black would never vote for a Democrat in any case; Hillary has so many more negatives going into the race).  Just anecdotally, you should know that Republicans in my area pledge to work actively against her while the other Democrats, including Barack engender interest.

Hillary voted for Bush's war policies on three separate occassions, so it is incongruous to support a pro-war candidate, to trust a candidate who has consistantly postured to convey a strong military position for the right (in the general), as one who would be the best to end this travesty in the Middle East.

So although I trust your sincerity, I suggest that you reconsider your choice, if ending this war is as important to you as it is to me.
Obama '08 - right about the war from the beginning
Mitchell Feldman: I have been involved in uncountable polls and I can tell you they are a form to manipulate people minds. Polls are a double edge knife. and they in most parts serve the best interests of certain unknown individuals or groups. The bottom line is that polls are not free, someone (s) is paying for and can gives misleading information for the benefit of those who are paying or receiving the benefits.When it comes to politic no one is to be trust.
In a political arena the best way to see who is the best one is to closely listen to the right wing cult talk shows embedded in FOX and Clear Chanel. I have done that as part of my daily income (now retired) When the right wing cult talk shows practically endorses Obama and trash Hillary is because they find that they have something on Obama. Remember one thing, This people are desperate, they need to be in power so they can continue giving away our resources in ex chain for power and control. Remember how they destroyed Kerry and how they are going against the congress.
I thing my dear friend that there are two choices, proven Hillary and Edward. I don't expect you to change I do like for you to take time to think and do the best according to you inner conscience.
Independents, and Republicans...
Please get out and vote tomorrow for John McCain. He'll need the independent vote to defeat Romney... indies don't waste your vote on Obama- he is already going to give Hillary hers!

Mitt Romney is a single term governor from Massachusetts who did little in office. When he left, the Dems took over. Nice job Mitt!
Also, he rescued the Olympics? Google this and find out the the Olympics were already turning around. What, they were going to skip them that year?
Finally, the genius of Romney as businessman. What? He is a venture capitalist who gutted companies.     ( Ever notice how Mitt doesn't name the companies he owned? )And by the way, he didn't run a GE or IBM.
Finally, his attacks on McCain are offensive. A candidate will run the country as President much like they campaign. Mitt's tactics when down- get ugly and go for the kill. When he's up, he is Mr. Sunshine. New Hampshire, stop this man now.  


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