First thoughts: Iowa 'madness'
Posted: Thursday, December 27, 2007 9:22 AM by Mark Murray
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Iowa “madness”: Exactly one week until the caucuses… Yesterday, in Iowa, Obama sharpened his attack on Clinton like never before (on secrecy and on the Clinton attack line that electing him would be risky). The question lots of folks are going to want to know today is whether Obama was actually saying voters who thought Clinton would bring change are “mad.” Obviously, he'd say no, but he did use the term "madness," which some might argue is insulting to some Clinton supporters. And today in Des Moines, Obama gives what is being billed as his closing speech, which will focus on change. Meanwhile, in her speeches and even in unveiling a new TV ad that begins running today, Clinton yesterday was touting her experience. But she also said she’s already changed so she can bring change. Read between those lines…
*** Romney on the attack -- and defense: Largely lost in yesterday’s focus on Iowa -- particularly Clinton’s and Obama’s speeches there -- was Romney on the attack in New Hampshire, blasting McCain on immigration. That came after the former governor had already whacked McCain on taxes and Huckabee on Bush’s foreign policy. But while was jabbing his GOP rivals, a counterpunch came from another editorial board: the influential New Hampshire Union Leader. Romney's challenges in both Iowa and New Hampshire appear to be greater by the day. Can he keep being the lone candidate staying on the attack, and also be the lone candidate taking hits from both candidates and these editorial pages? And don’t miss Romney’s statement that he could finish second in New Hampshire. “People usually say there are three tickets out of Iowa and then there are two tickets out of New Hampshire,” he said. “Everybody wants to win and I'd like to come in first. If I can't come in first, then I'd like to come in second.”
*** Busted? Did Edwards get caught coordinating with that pro-Edwards 527 that is running TV ads in Iowa? That's the implication in today’s New York Times, which reports on an email message from the union leaders who created the 527 suggesting “that they were talking with Edwards campaign officials about ‘what specific kinds of support they would like to see from us’ just as they were planning to create an outside group to advertise in early primary states with ‘a serious 527 legal structure.’” The 527’s ties to Edwards already smelled a little fishy, given that his 2004 campaign manager -- Nick Baldick -- was running the group. Does this New York Times report make things smell a bit worse for the candidate who is attacking the influence of special interests? This could be a bigger problem for Edwards in New Hampshire, where the issue of campaign reform is always on the minds of those "live free and die" voters.
*** A-hunting we will go: Move over John McCain, nobody does photo-ops better than Huckabee. His bird-hunting visual in Iowa yesterday got the shot in on Romney that they campaign wanted. (Remember Romney’s “varmits” and I’ve-been-a-hunter-all-my-life remark?) And by the way, Huckabee is now starting to rack up some more mainstream endorsements, like nods from Florida’s Senate majority whip and former Wyoming Gov. Jim Geringer. By the way, last week's focus on the "Christian" Christmas ad by Huckabee was thought by some to alienate the so-called "bubba" support Huckabee was getting from non-religious conservative blue-collar GOP voters. Yesterday's hunting photo-op may have been about Huckabee trying to stop the bleeding among those folks where his populist/anti-Wall Street message had been resonating.
*** Here comes 9/11. But what about Iowa? Now with the medical concerns behind him -- after last night’s statement from his doctor – Giuliani is now trying to spark his campaign with a new TV ad that plays up 9/11. The ad airs on broadcast Florida and New Hampshire outlets, as well as on Fox News cable nationally. What's left unsaid by the campaign -- but what the ad buy clearly indicates -- is that Giuliani is basically skipping Iowa. Sure, he'll campaign there a little bit, but he's not making a serious final push. He's done some radio and some mail in the previous months. But as the rubber hits the road, it doesn't appear he's going to make a real Iowa effort. Speaking of making real Iowa efforts, McCain's campaign released his schedule through January 4 and he'll be splitting time between Iowa and New Hampshire. We're still waiting on Giuliani's schedule post-December 30. Will he spend any part of next week in Iowa? If this TV ad buy is a clue, then probably not.
*** On the trail: Iowa remains the place to be: Clinton continues her “Big Challenges, Real Solutions: Time To Pick A President” tour, visiting Lawton, Denison, Carroll, and Guthrie Center; Dodd is in Waukon, West Union, Grinnell, and Des Moines; Edwards hits Waukon, Decorah, Waverly, and Waterloo; Huckabee holds a “We The People” event tonight in West Des Moines; McCain attends a rally in Des Moines before traveling to Clear Lake, Cedar Rapids, Waterloo, and Cedar Falls; Obama continues his “Stand For Change” tour, visiting Des Moines (where he gives his big speech), Nevada, Marshalltown, Toledo, and Vinton; Paul has several events in Des Moines; Richardson is in Denison, Carroll, Jefferson, Boone, and Story City; and Thompson hits Urbandale, Osceola, Chariton, and Knoxville. Elsewhere, Huckabee is in Florida before he travels to Iowa; Giuliani also is in the Sunshine State, who visits Fort Lauderdale and Miami; and Romney remains in New Hampshire. Also, Michelle Obama stumps on her husband’s behalf in Iowa.
Countdown to Iowa: 7 days
Countdown to New Hampshire: 12 days
Countdown to Michigan: 19 days
Countdown to Nevada and SC GOP primary: 23 days
Countdown to SC Dem primary: 30 days
Countdown to Florida: 33 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 40 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 313 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 390 days
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