ABOUT FIRST READ

First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Obama says he's the most electable Democrat

Posted: Saturday, December 29, 2007 6:14 PM by Mark Murray

From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan and NBC's Mark Murray
FORT MADISON, IA -- Obama pushed his electability argument a step further at his second stop here today, highlighting Clinton's unfavorable ratings -- while claiming that he could win enough Republican support to create a coalition for governing if he were to win the presidency.

"There's one Democrat who beats every Republican potential opponent, and that's me. I beat Giuliani, I beat McCain, I beat Thompson, I beat Huckabee -- I beat whoever else they are planning to throw at me," he said.

Obama added, "And the reason that I beat them all -- and Hillary doesn't and Edwards doesn't -- is because I get more support from independents and I even get some Republican support, despite the fact that I've got the most progressive track record on many issues of any of the candidates."

Obama went a step further, contrasting his favorability ratings with Hillary Clinton's unfavorable ones nationally and played on the fears of Democrats that the election in 2008 could be a repeat of the one in 2004.

Obama paused before he drew his contrast, conscious of how his words would come off. "We cant win an election with a candidate... Let me say it this way, because I want to be fair…" He went on to say, "We are less likely to win an election that starts off with half the country not wanting to vote for that candidate." And in what seemed to be a dig at Edwards, he said, "We are less likely also to win an election with somebody who had one set of positions four years ago and has almost entirely different positions four years later. We've been through that."

In the most recent national NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, both Obama and Clinton bested their potential GOP rivals, yet Obama did so by larger margins than Clinton did. Clinton also had net-negative favorability rating in the survey.

Making a reference to the attacks leveled against Senator John Kerry in 2004 for being a flip-flopper, Obama added, "It's a problem, and so if you are concerned with electability having somebody who has been consistent, who has opposed the war from the start so the opponent cant say he was for the war just like I was." (Of course, Obama's rivals would likely point to his own changes on issues -- like the death penalty, gun control, and health care -- from the 1990s.)

At his next town hall in Keokuk, Obama appeared more comfortable making clearer distinctions, singling out Edwards and Clinton by name. "Part of the problem John would have in a general election is the issues he's taken on now are not the issues or the things that he said four years ago, which always causes problems in general elections," Obama said of Edwards, referring to his vote for the bankruptcy bill and the trade deal with China.

Regarding Clinton, he said, "And Senator Clinton doesn't beat all five of them because you start off with half of the country not wanting to vote for her."  

Though the conventional wisdom in Iowa is that a candidate tries to stay above the fray in the week leading up the caucuses, Obama's willingness to target the other candidates in the race may reflect the incredibly tight race in Iowa and recent polls that show both Edwards and Clinton rising in recent weeks.

A spokesman for a rival campaign said of Obama's attacks, "The Los Angeles Times [poll] was the second in a week to show him sinking to third place in Iowa. Is it mere coincidence that he's going negative or turning up the heat and retooling his stump speech as his numbers began to sink?"

To stress its electability argument, Obama's campaign released a series of poll numbers that showed him leading Republicans in a two-way race in a general election.

But even Obama acknowledged that for a progressive Democrats to win wide margins among conservative Republicans may be a pipe dream. "I understand that there are going to be Republican operatives that don't want to know what I'm going to say. I'm not trying to persuade Rush Limbaugh that I'm going to be a good president; you know I know he's not voting for me. I'm not trying to you know persuade the chief lobbyist for Exxon mobile about why we need to free ourselves from the dependence on foreign oil. He's not going to be persuaded," Obama said.

In talking about the power of hope, Obama also stepped outside of himself to take a look at his own candidacy in which his race could be a handicap if he were to run as the first African-American president.

"I'm a black guy running for president named Barack Obama. I must be hopeful."

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Comments

I am a bit surprised he is doing this: citing hypothetical match ups - makes me wonder why he is grasping for straws at this point.
“I beat Giuliani, I beat McCain, I beat Romney, I beat Thompson, I beat Huckabee, I beat ‘em all…..YEEEAAAAHHHHHHH!!!!”

It’s his Howard Dean moment.


Edwards voted for the bankruptcy bill and Hillary was the only Senate no show for the vote. And those two claim to be for the middle class? Edwards can't win anything but a miracle in Iowa and half the voters and a third of the democrats hate Hillary. Obama is right. He is the ONLY electable nominee.
I think Al Gore is somewhere looking at Obama and thinking that this is what it is like when a progressive candidate is not afraid to "Let it rip."  Obama is closing strong, aggressive, and forceful.  Even though I am a firm supporter, every day I am more and more impressed by his willingness to aggressively speak his mind, to stand up for himself like he will for American, to disagree without benig disagreeable.  The man is on fire.
Iowa caucusgoers concerned about electability should look at the poll averages (realclearpolitics.com) along with the recent polls Obama cites.  In the averages, Obama does 4 points better vs. Giuilani than Clinton (who is only +2), 5 points better vs. McCain (Clinton: -5!!!), 6 points better vs. Huckabee, and 7 points better vs. Romney.  I can't believe democrats would knowingly shoot ourselves in the foot so badly.

As for Edwards, Obama does ~2 points better vs. Giuliani and ~2 points worse against the other three - all within the margin of error.  However, Edwards has accepted federal matching funds and his campaign would be unable to spend money countering republican attacks between Feb. 5 and the nominating convention in August.  It would come down to the DNC and 527's to fight alone for those seven months with no coordination with the campaign.  That is a very, very dangerous place to be in.

Any of the Democrats can cherry pick various head to head polling that shows them beating the Republicans.  I have seen polls where Clinton did best.  I have seen polls where Edwards does best.

The problem for OBama is you look at the head to head in various states it shows there are certain key swing states where he consistantly underperforms against all Republicans .... OH and PA come to mind.  NJ isn't great from his either in the blue state side of things.  
Obama is absolutely right.  This Republican supports him.  No other candidate has such broad support.  In sharp contrast, likely 50% of this country will show up just to vote against Hillary Clinton if she ends up in the general election.  So advice to Democrats - be smart, pick a winner this time, not someone who has been sitting on your Democratic pantry shelves over the last 15 years gathering the mold of corruption and scandal.
The only authentic candidate who speaks the truth.  The time for calculating, shrill political animals has come and gone.  Sorry Hillary.  It is time for you to head back to the Senate.
Democrats had better think & choose Wisely if we Sincerely want to win the Whitehouse.Just selecting a candidate to represent our side, will Not automatically give the Whitehouse to us. But, if we choose a candidate that already has a Negative of close to 50%, we will be playing catchup. I'm sure in your everyday lives, you would'nt choose any project knowing that the odds were already close to 50% against YOU.The Supreme Court is the Big prize & only the POTUS is the one who names them.Remember back in 2000, how important the Supreme court was? It effectively Cancelled all votes by a 5-4 margin. Choose Wisely DEmocrats!

BARACK OBAMA FOR PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA!!!!
The Obama campaign is showing a clear sign of panic! I still don't know how he's going to bring change. Obama is asking us all to trust him...he will bring change! but how can you trust a person without any record or solid experience on issues? I want to know the really answer to that, where is his platform, what really records he has on the big issues? He likes to criticizes everyone and always brings back "his track record." Track record on what for God sake! It really shows immaturity as a leader or he's just to clever of a politician trying to score big with the Presidency while avoiding the big answers, always avoiding confrontations and using his political godfathers to pushing him to the top quickly. Now, lately he's all over the place, crying out loud and attacking everyone. Does anyone know what happened to Obama's campaign of hope? Lately, all he's doing is whining and going negative complaining about the 527s groups. He himself has 527 groups already promoting his campaign in California, Nevada, etc. He's up for a big surprise in Iowa and elsewehre, the majority of people that now is paying attention to the candidates is not buying is celebrity campaign. Wasn't he mocking before Kennedy for being to old, the Clintons for being the 90s, Edwards for not having enough money to compete, etc.etc. Why he's panicking now? I sense a sign of desperation, it seems very clear that his campaign or he started getting really nervous when the people started focusing on the issues.
Wow, looks like Obama is really losing it! His ego is getting bigger and bigger, not only he is the messenger of change and holier than thu; but now he really thinks he is the most electable one. Go figures!
Now, lately he's all over the place, crying out loud and attacking everyone. Does anyone know what happened to Obama's campaign of hope? Lately, all he's doing is whining and going negative.
Barack Obama entered this race and has done INCREDIBLE fundraising from so many people.   A lot of small donations.  He's got people believing, he's got broad appeal, and with the kind of support he can raise from everyday men and women he can maintain a war chest that'll be more than enough for him to take on the GOP.  Let's not forget, control of the Senate is up for grabs.  A lot more Republicans are up for reelection than Democrats, the DP is foolish if they don't spend a lot of money to win those Senate seats and gain an actual majority in the Senate.
Now's not the time for Edwards and 527's, or his use of taxpayer money to fund a campaign. Now's not the time for HRC's corporations or partianship.  We need to be Americans again and reduce our bickering to a productive level.
Obama '08
Obama is right. I am a republican and have never voted for a democrat in the past. But I'm willing to vote for him if he is nominated by the democrats this time if Thompson does not get the nomination.
I am always astounded why journalists like Aswini Anburajan and Mark Murray cannot report news like neutral journalists.  Somebody has gone scouring every obscure quarters to unearch what must have been mischiveously thought to be Obama’s inconsistencies on death penalty, gun control, and healthcare in the 90’s.  Obama has stated categorically that he did not see nor fill out the questionaire in question but was done by a member of his staff without his consent.  Journalists that are worth their calling should investigate Obama’s voting records on these issues, his many opinion papers and interviews on these subjects to reconcile them with the content of the questionaire.  Anybody who is independent minded would have known that Obama does not answer questions both in written and oral interviews in categorical “yes” and “no” but more elaborate and nuanced.

There is nothing wrong for a person to change his or her views on any subject.  But the reason for doing so must carry commensurate, logical weight to warrant changing such views.  People are concerned with those who change their views due to expediencies and calculations that depicts political opportunism.    
I am a very liberal Democrat and have voted that way for 41 years. However, I will not vote for Hillary or Obama under no circumstances.  Obama has no experience what company or state has he run.  On a tough problem he avoids it.  Yes , he was against the war but if he had to vote he would have voted present or not at all.  Your past is an indication of your present.  Tough votes he avoids such as the vote on Iranian army as terrorists.  When he ran as senator he didn't run against anyone who had an standing.  He has been pronounced a saint as some of his followers claim.  Now, no one has said the thing that is the elephant in the room and he is black.  If Ford from Tennessee could not become senator and the tactics they used against him. The same will be used in the elections.  Hispanics at least in Ohio do not like Africans-Americans and are very perjudice.  This country is prejudiced still. His name will be on the ballot and voting for a person to lead the country with a Muslim sounding name will make many people not vote for him.  Ford was a very good representative but that prejudice showed up in his election.  As for Hillary the negatives are too high.  Bill will be a liability.  His women, white water, health care fiasco, her billing records, the secretcy of his administration and so on.  If the early states picks either one I will be forced to vote for a third party candidate or Republican depending on who they chose,  Ohio will not be Democratic if either one is on the ticket.  We have to stop choosing candidates who the Republicans want to run against. McCain would eat Barack up in a debate and expereience in foreign affairs do matter.  He has not served in the military.  What if we are attack again it will guarantee a Republican president. He would excel as a Superan Court Justice but he has lived a privilege life and does not know the hard life most of us endure.  He can go across the aisle and get agreements.  Why isn't he doing it now.  Because he can't.  No one gives up their power for the poor and middle class because Barack wants them too.  This is an indications of being inexperience. It is laughable.  As for Hillary the experience that she has came from her husband and what he allowed her to have.  
How dare anyone compare Barack with Bobbie or Jack Kennedy.  People have forgotten the problems they had when they were alive.  Death made their memories better than the reality they were living.  He is no Jack Kennedy.  The parallels are not similiar.  As far as his judgment. If Barack was so against the war why didn't you hear about it?  It was because he knew that the climate of the period would not get him elected if he persued it.  Hillary and Barack talks the talk however, they do not walk it
Obama is coming on strong.
My husband was watching cspan today and someone they interviewed in Iowa alluded to an Obama win.  The guy said he thinks he will win by a large margin.
Also, a look at his web site and you will see they totally revamped the whole site.  5 days before the caucus.
I'm a supporter but, I personally feel nervous and will keep feeling that way until after Iowa. However,
They know something in the Obama camp
Obama is the smartest, most honest candidate. He is stong on domestic issues, was correct on Iraq and called long ago for action in Pakistan/Afghanistan to root out the Al Qaida stronghold. I like Edwards, Hillary and the other Dems, but Obama stands above them in my view.  
Obama for President. When all the other candidates had the chance to do something what did they do? Now Obama is in this race because he wants to restore our credibility in the world(damaged by Washington), because he believes the country needs to be united to solve the Health Care that is broken now and even when Clinton was president. Hillary can't change the way politic works in Washington because the experience she is claiming to be a master of is the Washington experience.
Can the guy asking about Obama experience tell me what he has gained from Clinton experience (something real)? except her vote for the Iraq war, poll driven answers and not fight the special interests in Washington.
Our nation needs Obama, the man without Washington experience but with life experience and judgment to lead.
Obama 08'
I am a very liberal Democrat and have voted that way for 41 years. However, I will not vote for Hillary or Obama under no circumstances.  Obama has no experience what company or state has he run.  On a tough problem he avoids it.  Yes , he was against the war but if he had to vote he would have voted present or not at all.  Your past is an indication of your present.  Tough votes he avoids such as the vote on Iranian army as terrorists.  When he ran as senator he didn't run against anyone who had an standing.  He has been pronounced a saint as some of his followers claim.  Now, no one has said the thing that is the elephant in the room and he is black.  If Ford from Tennessee could not become senator and the tactics they used against him. The same will be used in the elections.  Hispanics at least in Ohio do not like Africans-Americans and are very perjudice.  This country is prejudiced still. His name will be on the ballot and voting for a person to lead the country with a Muslim sounding name will make many people not vote for him.  Ford was a very good representative but that prejudice showed up in his election.  As for Hillary the negatives are too high.  Bill will be a liability.  His women, white water, health care fiasco, her billing records, the secretcy of his administration and so on.  If the early states picks either one I will be forced to vote for a third party candidate or Republican depending on who they chose,  Ohio will not be Democratic if either one is on the ticket.  We have to stop choosing candidates who the Republicans want to run against. McCain would eat Barack up in a debate and expereience in foreign affairs do matter.  He has not served in the military.  What if we are attack again it will guarantee a Republican president. He would excel as a Superan Court Justice but he has lived a privilege life and does not know the hard life most of us endure.  He can go across the aisle and get agreements.  Why isn't he doing it now.  Because he can't.  No one gives up their power for the poor and middle class because Barack wants them too.  This is an indications of being inexperience. It is laughable.  As for Hillary the experience that she has came from her husband and what he allowed her to have.  
How dare anyone compare Barack with Bobbie or Jack Kennedy.  People have forgotten the problems they had when they were alive.  Death made their memories better than the reality they were living.  He is no Jack Kennedy.  The parallels are not similiar.  As far as his judgment. If Barack was so against the war why didn't you hear about it?  It was because he knew that the climate of the period would not get him elected if he persued it.  Hillary and Barack talks the talk however, they do not walk it
Iowa Independent predicts that Obama will win the Iowa caucus.

http://iowaindependent.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=220655B2DD6B57BE03B1D2301074C524?diaryId=1732
Regardless if Senator Obama wins Iowa or not, I am proud of the way he is closing. Just the thought of this country moving in the right direction under his leadership, brings brief joy. When he becomes the next President of this country it will be a great day for all americans.
I am a very liberal Democrat and have voted that way for 41 years. However, I will not vote for Hillary or Obama under no circumstances.  Obama has no experience what company or state has he run.  On a tough problem he avoids it.  Yes , he was against the war but if he had to vote he would have voted present or not at all.  Your past is an indication of your present.  Tough votes he avoids such as the vote on Iranian army as terrorists.  When he ran as senator he didn't run against anyone who had an standing.  He has been pronounced a saint as some of his followers claim.  Now, no one has said the thing that is the elephant in the room and he is black.  If Ford from Tennessee could not become senator and the tactics they used against him. The same will be used in the elections.  Hispanics at least in Ohio do not like Africans-Americans and are very perjudice.  This country is prejudiced still. His name will be on the ballot and voting for a person to lead the country with a Muslim sounding name will make many people not vote for him.  Ford was a very good representative but that prejudice showed up in his election.  As for Hillary the negatives are too high.  Bill will be a liability.  His women, white water, health care fiasco, her billing records, the secretcy of his administration and so on.  If the early states picks either one I will be forced to vote for a third party candidate or Republican depending on who they chose,  Ohio will not be Democratic if either one is on the ticket.  We have to stop choosing candidates who the Republicans want to run against. McCain would eat Barack up in a debate and expereience in foreign affairs do matter.  He has not served in the military.  What if we are attack again it will guarantee a Republican president. He would excel as a Superan Court Justice but he has lived a privilege life and does not know the hard life most of us endure.  He can go across the aisle and get agreements.  Why isn't he doing it now.  Because he can't.  No one gives up their power for the poor and middle class because Barack wants them too.  This is an indications of being inexperience. It is laughable.  As for Hillary the experience that she has came from her husband and what he allowed her to have.  
How dare anyone compare Barack with Bobbie or Jack Kennedy.  People have forgotten the problems they had when they were alive.  Death made their memories better than the reality they were living.  He is no Jack Kennedy.  The parallels are not similiar.  As far as his judgment. If Barack was so against the war why didn't you hear about it?  It was because he knew that the climate of the period would not get him elected if he persued it.  Hillary and Barack talks the talk however, they do not walk it
Obama is correct. He is definitely the most electable of all of the Democrats. The latest Zogby poll showed him as the only Democrat who beat every single Republican candidate. And Obama is also right about Hillary's negatives. There have been polls showing that as many as 50% say they could NEVER vote for her under any circumstance! We Democrats really want to win this election. It would be sheer folly to nominate someone like Hillary who has such high negatives before the general election campaign has even begun. If you listen to Republicans like Pat Buchanan and Joe Scarborough, and GOP-leaning commentators like Craig Crawford, they are openly hoping that the Democrats nominate Hillary. And Edwards is not as electable as Obama, either. He couldn't even help Kerry win his own home state of North Carolina in 2004. Democrats, we have an inspirational, brilliant man who can take us to victory. Caucus and vote for Barack Obama!!      
America has asked for an honest, smart, and fair politician.  I think we have that in Barack Obama.  It is unrealistic to believe that Big Business is not going to be involved in policy making.  Right now the problem seems to be they are doing what's best for their bottom line which most often is not good for the American people.  We need a president who is willing to balance the needs of the American people with the needs of american businesses.  You can't go from one extreme to the other as Edwards' rhetoric suggests he would do. Although I believe if elected he'd probably be more in line with what Obama is SAYING he would do.  Hillary has disappointed me.  I know she is as strong and smart as Barack but her win by any means necessary approach is too disturbing. America is a strong and hopeful country that is not living up to our potential.  We need Barack Obama.  I think he can bring statesmanship back to the White House, dust off the constitution and hang it for all to be proud of again, and inspire World Leaders to be partners with the United States in the War on Terror. But hey, that's just me.
Panic?  People are seeing Barack's aggressive stance in these final days of the Iowa campaign as "panic"?  That a joke....  this man is running strong and straight and telling like it is, sticking to the facts.  THAT is what the primary is all about...  you have to draw distinctions and show where you best your opponents.  

And his point about Senator Clinton entering a general election with approximately 50% of the country lined up solidly against her is absolutely valid and everyone who cannot fathom any of the current slate of Republican candidates being innaugurated next January, should give that some serious thought before your cast your primary or caucus vote.

The momement is now America...  believe in this man.  Listen to this man.  Watch this man.  He is real and his candidacy alone embodies CHANGE....  

FIRED UP!  GO IOWA GO!
according to a cnn poll taken december 10, he loses to Mcain...sorry barak. No dice on this one.

Plus I doubt you could win in the key battle ground states like Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Iowa, Penn and all the others. You are to vulnerable on a lot of issues. And lets face it, race is still a huge issue in America. Dont believe it? Look what happened in Jenna. Ill vote for you in the general, hell Ill probably try to work for you. But you wont win, which will suck because we will have another 4 or 8 years of bush part duex.

Who can win in the south where the battle will be won? Edwards. Because he is the only democrat that has. He is the only dem who excites Texas Democrats and others around the country. We are only 5 seats away from taking back the Texas House. We NEED a southern Dem to take it all home.

Historically Southern Democrats have won in the past 50 years. In fact, of the past dems who have held the office only JFK was from the North East and he only won because of the south. The fights are not in New York or Illinois...but in places in the South or states with large southern influences (see ohio)

Give us Obama...we lose. Give us clinton...we lose and probably lose the senate and house. Give us Edwards and you will see the south rise and the dems will take back the country.

Now I am not saying, as some of you might infer, that he will sweep the south. Hardly, the south is still a republican strong hold. But he will help win key states and help us take some much needed seats in some key districts. (TX-10 is one that I live in)

So in terms of electablity...sorry a snoody harvard yard kid will never beat a plucky kid from north carolina, or any southern state for that matter.

"Dickie Flatts@yahoo.com":
'The problem for OBama is you look at the head to head in various states it shows there are certain key swing states where he consistantly underperforms against all Republicans .... OH and PA come to mind.'

Mr Flatts,

As a middle-aged white man from the middle of no-where, Pa., let me tell you, Sen. Obama's support is wider and deeper than you might think, even before the electorate en masse, tunes into the debate. One of the dangerous things that the Il. senator had dared to do, is make sense. Things that make sense are an easy sell in pragmatically-minded America. And I dare say, most of the country is pragmatic. They've lost a certain enthusiasm and hope, but they are pragmatic. The conversion to faith in something that they can effect and a willingess to vote that faith, is not the long-haul that most pundits and pollsters think it is. If every-day Americans have the opportunity to participate in a movement that will ensure their viability in the nation, in the world, in the American Dream, they will stand up and fight for it. We can be smarter than this. We can be strong. We can be united. I think that Senators Obama, McCain, Biden and Dodd are all excellent candidates who bring a staggering array of talents to the table. I believe that Sen. Obama would be the best to bring them all together and direct our purpose as a nation.

We can no longer be told that the situation we have managed to get ourselves into in the world requires no particular action on our part other than going out and shopping, which fewer and fewer of us seem to be able to do. We must be willing to seize the initiative of realizing that we must sacrifice, we must be diligent, we must be efficient. But most of all, in order to accomplish any of this, we must be united, as Americans. Let's do what we can to put some aggressive ideas on the table, invite debate, and with government help, work to spread wealth unfettered by institutionalized greed.

Just my $.02,
I have read with a bit of amusement that certain people feel that "Barack Hussein Obama has been sent by the Almighty in answer to the prayers of the American people." Let me know when HE WALKS ON WATER and then, perhaps, I'll give some consideration to him getting my vote. Until then, I'll stick to sanity and reality and HILLARY CLINTON.
Right on Obama.  He is the only electable one of the top three.  People hate Hilary with a passion and it will energize the Republican base to beat a woman such as she.  He is a much better candidate than any other running and it would be a Godsend for America if he were to be elected.

Picture this, the United States of America elects a half black man by the name of Barack Hussein Obama, our allies would double overnight and we could achieve the unachievable with this movement.

Man I am hyped at this possibilty for our future!!!
Only Obama can win the General Election.

Edwards has nothing to offer.

Clinton...she may get 28% of the vote.   Independents will never vote for her.

All you racist bastards are just hiding behind the no-experience mantra. Face it, you do not want a half-black man to be Prez.  Not to mention, most of you Hillary supporters are Republicans, salivating at the opportunity for your Repub candidate to run against her.
Obama totally lost here. He doesn't talk right, he doesn't anwser questions straight, it seems that something is also going wrong inside. I do know from some blogs, his supporters now are quiet, some changed minds.
If you can not even handle what is going on now, how can you deal with the unpredicted events down the road ? I hope by now he realized one thing: A speech guy is not good enough to take president job.

By the way, I noticed some posts here complain about first read's report. Wow, just think how Hillary went through with all the attacks on her. Obama never walks to the frontline. He was pushed to the frontline. Smooth all the way. Now voters finally have chance to realize that HE IS INEXPERINCED.  
The experience card has never played well in the general election.

If you go back 50 years here how they stack up.

Bush 42 beats a more experienced Kerry
Bush 42 beats a more experienced Gore
Clinton beats a more experienced Dole
Clinton beats a more experienced Bush 41
Bush 41 beats a less experienced Dukakis
Reagan the less experienced candidate wins twice in a row
Carter beats a more experienced Ford
Nixon wins on experience over experience of Johnson
Kennedy beats a more experienced Nixon.

Time and time again the American public choose a candidate with personality over experience.

If this is any indication a vote for Hillary means trouble, a vote for Obama means a vote for a winner in the general.
Hillary had her chance in the '90's.  She failed at health care.  John Edwards had his chance in 2004.  He failed all of us.  Go Obama '08 !!
diane, I saw the same CSPAN show that your husband did and the person said they think Obama could win as much as 40%!! I am a huge Obama supporter, and was thrilled to hear this! (though I know this was just one person's prediction!) Don't forget to watch Obama on Meet the Press tomorrow - he and Huckabee are the guests!  
Obama is a little boy pretending to be a grown-up. He has NO foreign policy experience and now he's threatening that it's "now or never". Guess what??? It's never....Hilary For President!!!!
I was in the front row to listen to Obama on Friday night in Muscatine, Iowa. Former Five Star Air Force General Tony McPeak was there. General McPeak is a man who has first hand dealt with Presidents as part of Joint Chief of Staffs, and his views on Obama's ability to lead best was voiced with intelligence. Could any of the Demoratic candidates lead "better" than Bush, of course but Obama is the BEST qualified to lead. In the past, I have given my business card to other campaigns & indicated I would like to talk to either the candidate or a representative further about housing issues. I work for HUD Low Income Housing. When I gave it to Obama I figured it would go unanswered like the others. I received a phone call a week later & the gentleman from his staff asked me more about what I do & my views. That impressed me. Then he went a step further, he asked me if I could send him a resume, & would I consider joining a group on policies for housing? Wow. Now I am really intrigued about this candidate & his staff. Then, I started my involvement with the policy group. Let me tell you, this group is from all over the US, & very impressive ideas but in proposals for Obama & staff to help them understand housing needs from the grass roots up. NOT from the officials from HUD down. If he is doing this for housing, I can guarantee he is doing it for numerous important issues. I was hooked. I then volunteered my home for out of state volunteers to come. I hosted a former diplomat - what a rush to be such a part of an organization that can inspire such diverse individuals to come together to work for something important.Let me explain what I heard on Friday night. I heard positive messages & not attacks. If someone asked me a direct question on about another candidate, I would answer it as honestly as I could. And that is exactly what he did when asked about electability. Why can't he weigh the pros and cons of what the other candidates brings to the table or not like everyone else, just because he is one of the candidates? It is difficult for me to understand that there is a problem with someone being confident, not holier than though and big ego? I would want someone as president who wanted to the job & felt confident to do the job. If Obama is willing to take the time to have someone from Iowa on a housing committee, to have some very smart dedicated staff, to win the approval of five star generals, & yes, Oprah,(which I personally believe she did a wonderful job at keeping the emphasis on Obama not herself during her speech, I witnessed in Cedar Rapids, Iowa) then I can see this man finding the right staff to help him in his presidency. To close, as a volunteer, there was a group photo op on Friday. He had already been to many events for the day and it is after 10:00 pm but not only did he take the time but he was relaxed as he rested his arm on my shoulder as he stood behind me -not rigid - just confident & pleased with our support & time. This election is SO important not only for me as a babyboomer but my daughter a former cancer patient who is finishing college this spring. This is for her future, and your children's future. Personally, I like hope and believe we need a new type of change.
Thats a good point Rita (above) made about hispanics being less likely to vote for Obama. When people bring up his race and wonder if people will vote for a black for president, you automatically think of white people, but he may have a much greater problem with hispanic voters. Thats an issue nobody has discussed at all. That may explain why he lags Hillary in big states like Ohio and elsewhere.

I really think Obama is unelectable. For that reason and becuase he has no epxerience. People will figure they can vote for him next time. He has a very liberal record too, and he hasnt tried to moderate that during the primaries, like Hillary has. He would be a sitting duck for republicans in the general election.

Hillary isnt exactly a gereat candidate either. But she has the potential to get a unusually large turnout from women voters, and I think she will at least come close to winning if she doesnt win outright. Bill Buckley agrees. Last night on Charlie Rose he predicted Hillary would be the next president. Conservatives dont like her, but they respect her intelligence and common sense, thats why they think she can win.
Edwards is the only candidate the Republicans are afraid of.. wonder why that is?  Maybe he's the only candidate who's walking the talk... the only candidate with the courage to create the change America needs the most.
1. Obama polls as the ONLY Candidate that beats ALL Republicans in a General Election match up.

2. Edwards has NO money to compete in the primary even if he won Iowa.

3. Hillary is hated by half the Country at the start of a General Election contest. She will motivate and bring out EVERY Republican, Independent and Democrat that already despise her. To vote against her and she WILL lose the General Election to a Republican.

If this were football we would pick the BEST Quarterback to WIN the SEASON & SUPERBOWL and match up data supports that he can BEAT ALL the opponents.

We would not pick a quarterback based on he has a family member who once played for the team or that he could win us just ONE game.
The bottom line is Obama has the best ground game, raised the most money and gets more people at his events -- put that all together and that says he has the most support.

No matter what any one any where says -- we are are playing a waiting game until the first votes are counted.

But if I was placing a bet -- I'd bet on a win for Obama in Iowa!

America is a Democracy - We are not a Monarchy.
Wiser folks than us - saw to it long ago, that we be fortunate enough to realize this life blessing.
Nepotism may be fine for the old-corner-store but it will only serve to fail us again -as it has, most resoundingly, for the entirety of this millennium.

Voting for the worst policy decision in our life times does not make one 'experienced'.  It -IS- high time America elected a woman as commander-in-chief.  When a self made woman of conviction and talent stands up and demonstrates the character that can stand as an example for us all - we should stand behind her -  with conviction and fortitude.  Hillary Clinton is not that woman.  She is the spouse of a former and popular President. In a nation, 300 million strong, are we to believe that the person most suited to be the President just happens to be related to the last President ?!
Are we really to believe this is the case ?
Will we make this mistake, again ?

Barack Obama has the strength and certitude to take America in a new and positive direction - a direction that our evolving nation - being formed all around us all as we pass through our daily lives - very much is in need of.  There really is an immediacy of the 'now' that we all share.  We truly must begin to think big again and to face the immense challenges before us in brave and selfless ways again -  like those people in the old faded photographs on our walls did - for us.  It really is time to wake up again America. The time is, most certainly, now.

Barack Obama for President of the United States of America.

It's time for America to Rise and Shine again.
I hear a lot of talk about Obama's lack of 'experience'. I'd like to hear some talk of the records of those candidates with 'experience'. How have they helped you as an American in terms of domestic issues that you deal with? How has the foreign policy 'experience' helped with American foreign policy and the standing of the USA in the eyes of the rest of the world? Jumping on bandwagons is easy but thinking beyond the bandwagons is essential!


Seriously, are you truly an American...? You would rather sacrifice the Soul of this Country just to spread your ridiculous hatred of Senator Obam.  You would rather see this country destroyed not because you don't believe in the things that Senator Barack Obama is saying but because it is Senator Barack Obama who is saying it.

They are many Rich Politician who want to scare you with WAR.... They want you to be preoccupy because they want you to make same mistake a 3rd time....And if you do, mark my words, you think you are struggling now, it will become far worst than anything you can ever imagine.

Look at your politician.... Have you ever wondered how much they are worth financially.... I believe Senator Obama is probably the poorest of the group. He had every opportunity to make millions but it was his choice to stay and fight for the middle class and the poor.

And let me tell you if you elect Senator Clinton.... She will not look out for you she will only it make it worst for you.... She will take this Country deeper into a hole And then turn around and blame it on George Bush Administration's past mistakes....She voted for the war but blamed George Bush for it's failures... when his failures could not exist without her support.

And then soon you will one day come face to face with your deepest fear, the true meaning of poverty.... It will not just touch one of us it will touch all of us....And then your chance is lost.....Senator Obama will be only that, Senator Obama...You won't  have the opportunity for 4 more years to repair the mistake you've made. We are at war but it's not with the world.....It is the Middle Class and the Poor against the Richest of the Rich.  So I say, Republicans, Democrats and Independent who fits in the category of the less fortunate, make a choice, and think very hard at the choices you make because once you make it can not be undone...

Subtract yourselves from the propaganda....And ask the questions

How does your savings account look (many saving accounts no longer exists because many are living pay check to pay check)
Has the amount you pay for in gas taken away the type of food you buy (many are getting real familiar with TOP RAMEN)
How about the cost of housing (Now I don't own a home but come this January my rent will be rising to the cost of what a mortgage would be)
How about your health Insurance.... Well my employer just eliminated vision from our Healthcare Plan..... But they did give us the choice of purchasing it separately......Along with eliminating our vision they also increased the amount of premium we must pay for health care to and extra $50.00 making my monthly cost in Health Insurance balloon to $350 a month....
How about the price of Groceries (Well That  has me struggling also)
Will you have money to send your children to college?
And with every cost of living on the rise the one thing that is excluded is how much we are bringing home from work.  What we make to survive on is at stand still, while everything we need to survice it rising at impossible prices to pay for.
And I pretty sure that they are many many more questions that could be added on to this list
(The Richest of the Rich will have no problem answering any of the questions I have listed above with the highest of dignity.... Why many Americans are left to suffer)
So, Once again I say to subtract yourselves from the propaganda.....And ask the true hard to come to terms with questions......
It is very difficult for some people to understand how tough a candidate Senator Obama is.  In 5-days, Hilary is going to understand.  James Carville has been operating from the background and l read somewhere that he will be moving down to Iowa.  This is battle royal.

It is amazing that some people think that Obama is complaining about 527’s out of desperation.  No, that is Obama’s style to turn an opponents advantage into liability.  Senator Obama has perfected political strategy of jujutsu.  Senator Obama is using 527’s to define Edward as a hypocrite that is two faced and Hilary beholden with decadence in Washington.  

Any intuitive observer who has followed this Iowa campaign closely would instantly realized that Obama is going to win.  From beginning Senator Obama knew what to do and how to get to the end point and started to build ground game that is extensive with depth from Spring through Summer and Fall.  Most people believed that Obama would go the way of Howard Dean and that investing in young people would be a mistake.  All the pollings to date do not represent the reality on the ground.  Nobody is polling Independents or Republicans or highschol seniors who are going to caucus for Obama on Jan. 3.  That represents the coefficient of security for Obama in this Iowa caucus.

Rita Morgan-Robinson has concluded that Ford lost senatorial election in Tennessee due to racial prejudice.  I beg to disagree.  Ford lost to Corker with less than 3% points and that goes to show that race was not a factor.  Ford lost because of missteps that were avoidable and it was exploited by his opponent.  Ford claimed that Corker’s campaign were making derogatory statements against his family and crashed into Corker’s press conference and protrays himself as immature and impulsive.  His opponent exploited that misstep of immaturity and tied it into Ford being irresponsible bachelor who is more interested in partying and womanizing.  It was equivalent to what Lazio did by invading Hilary Clinton’s space during New York senatorial debate and Hilary exploited it by playing victim of sexism.  An aside, Hilary tried to play the same game after she botched the Philadelphia debate claiming that boys were ganging on her but public disagreed that the issue was not sexism but character flaws of double-speak.

Race is not going to be a hinderance for Obama in this campaign but a huge advantage.  Senator Obama transcends race and never a hostage to racial politics.  Obama is brilliant, humble, likeable and exudes graceful behavior laced with congenial temperament.  Obama is a very tough candidate to beat and time will tell.
I am a life long Republican, but given the state of our nation, the environment, and our detiorating reputation around the globe brought on by this past administration, I'm seriously considering moving my support to the Democratic side.

Based on what I know to be true about the three democratic front runners (Obama, Clinton, and Edwards) Obama seems the most electable.  I understand the arguement about inexperience but history has proven that inexperienced candidates can and do win very frequently.  Outside of the hypocritical 527 issues with Edwards, and the constant politicing of Clinton who's changed her stance on a number of issues many times in the past several months, Obama seems to be the only candidate that picked a platform to run on and has stuck to it.  I am willing to look past the 'present' and 'absentee' no-votes on some issues (even major ones) simply because there is clear evidence in most cases that 'present' votes in Illnois are not abnormal when a particular piece of legislation contains articles that are unacceptable however, as a whole, the legislation is sound.  In a presidential situation, those 'present' votes become line item vetoes.  With respect to the 'absentee' non-votes on some issues in the Senate, I think Obama has stepped up and stated his position clearly on those issues and has not waivered from those positions, even when under great pressure to do so.

Obama also seems to be the candidate with the subjective 'likability' factor that is severely lacking in the Clinton and Edwards camp.

I'm certain that this post could be much longer if I took the time to cover the principles of my own personal decision in much greater detail, but from one life long, upper class Republican (annual income greater than 250K per year), if Obama gets the democratic nomination he will most likely have my support in the 2008 election.
Obama is coming on strong.
My husband was watching cspan today and someone they interviewed in Iowa alluded to an Obama win.  The guy said he thinks he will win by a large margin.
Also, a look at his web site and you will see they totally revamped the whole site.  5 days before the caucus.
I'm a supporter but, I personally feel nervous and will keep feeling that way until after Iowa. However,
They know something in the Obama camp
diane (Sent Saturday, December 29, 2007 7:22 PM)

Calm down. Dont stress. Obama wont make it, you know it and I know it. On electoral votes state by state, he can not carry Democrats.

Most of the Obama online suporters in here are Republicans like Mike M Denver, Sierra aka BigOldtexan, Bee, etc.

Get behind Hillary and make the country strong again.
Obama is cherry-picking poll results (a single poll, actually, from Zogby).  RealClearPolitics.com lists all the polls from the past six months, and John Edwards is the only Democrat who consistently beats every Republican.  He even beats McCain (the toughest in head-to-head match-ups) by an average of 3.7%.  (The latest Fox News poll has Obama losing to McCain by 4%; they average out in a tie.)  In 2004 an aide to Karl Rove admitted to Newsweek that John Edwards was the one Democrat they weren't sure Bush could beat, and a few weeks ago a Republican strategist told MSNBC that his party would be "happy with either Obama or Clinton" because they were beatable.  "Edwards is the one who scares me," said John Feeheny.  "He's a southern democrat, and they're the ones who win."
Obama is not only the candidate with the best judgement and most integrity, he is also the most electable. Nearly every attack by Clinton and Edwards has been deflected and often backfired on the person making it. If there were skeletons they would have been found and used by now. Attacks against his race or religion will not be effective. Obama is the best candidate to win the election and to govern for the next 8 years. His inclusive rhetoric is exactly what's needed to create a governing majority.
John Edwards has "different positions" than he did four years ago?  This from the neo-populist who's been stealing Edwards' lines about the Maytag plant?

Politifact.com (similar to FactCheck.org, for those who like truth with your politics) gave a FALSE rating to Obama's claim that Edwards' populism is newfound.  Here's a sample: "News reports from his 1998 race show Edwards was described as a populist early on, running as 'the people’s senator' and saying he would help fight powerful interests like the insurance lobby ... We give Obama a False ruling on his remark that Edwards came to populism recently ... Edwards has consistently raised issues of economic inequality his entire political career."

Funny how Obama doesn't mention his own votes in favor of free trade, nor Edwards' opposition to NAFTA, CAFTA, etc.  (The China Favored Nation status is different; it contains regulations the Bush administration hasn't enforced.)  Obama also doesn't mention Edwards' Senate work on a patients' right bill and campaign finance reform, and he may not understand that "the" bankruptcy bill Edwards voted for wasn't the harsh law the Republicans passed a couple of years ago, after Edwards had left office.  He doesn't mention Edwards' Center for Poverty Research, or his College for Everyone program (which provides scholarships for students in a rural county of North Carolina, and which he wants to take nationally).  Then there's all that pesky lobby and PAC money Edwards has never taken.  Not one dime.

If Johnny weren't a gentleman, maybe he'd point out the FEC figures released October 29, 2007 ... Guess which two senators received the most money from HMO lobbyists during the 2007-08 election cycle?  1) Hillary Clinton and 2) Barack Obama.
http://www.opensecrets.org/industries/summary.asp?Ind=H03&recipdetail=M&sortorder=U&Cycle=2008

True healthcare reform?  Only with Edwards.  

I admit I am confused about whether to vote for Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton.  Obama has great style and is a gentle man, and tough when he absolutely needs to be.  He lacks experience, but he is not a woman. (I am a woman and I believe women in this country are less believable by our voters than men.)  Any mistake Hillary made or makes will be overblown and accepted as, well, she's not as good because she is a woman---("Yeah, what did you expect!??" when a mistake is made.  The respect is not the same.)  Men are forgiven quickly and business goes on. I like Hillary, but I don't think America is ready to vote a woman into office. I like Obama and like his heart and style, it may be enough to win over the other nations of whom we need support desperately and a little redemption. Hillary, though, has a vast amount of experience and support from Bill, who was exceptional!


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