ABOUT FIRST READ

First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



Obama camp still feeling confident

Posted: Monday, December 31, 2007 10:26 AM by Chuck Todd
Filed Under: ,



From NBC's Mark Murray and Chuck Todd
Obama campaign manager David Plouffe briefed the political press corps, via conference call and PowerPoint, on the state of the campaign as seen through their eyes.

The memo ticks through a series of numbers the campaign believes proves they are the candidate with momentum. But coming on the eve of the release of the final Des Moines Register poll (due out tonight), one can't help but also see the memo and call as a bit defensive. Overall, this was a presentation that a few months ago we might have expected from, say, Clinton rather than Obama. The campaign wasn't necessarily downplaying Iowa but they certainly were trying to leave the impression that Iowa's only the beginning, not the end.

In the call, Plouffe -- acknowledging that the polls show the race to be close -- cited the size of crowds at Obama events in Iowa, including a large number of undecided voters who are attending them. "Undecideds are still very interested in Sen. Obama," he said.

Plouffe also declared the Obama campaign has having the strongest organization in Iowa, and he said Obama and Edwards are the strongest second-choice options. "We think that's very important." And he added that Obama would capitalize from a large turnout.

Plouffe went on to say the race in Iowa a "one-on-seven" contest -- among Obama, Clinton, Edwards, and the various interest groups supporting Clinton and Edwards. including the "shadowing" pro-Edwards 527 group.

"We feel very good about where we are heading into Thursday," Plouffe said before going on to tout Obama's standing and organization in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, and the Feb. 5 states.

Plouffe also delivered this argument we haven't heard explicitly from the campaign before: that because Edwards accepted federal matching funds, he will be reliant on interest groups and the DNC until the Democratic convention -- if he wins the nomination.

*** UPDATE *** Edwards communications director Chris Kofinis issued this statement to Plouffe's assertions on the conference call regarding the interest-group help Edwards is receiving, as well as his ability to spend money -- if the nominee -- because he accepted federal matching funds. “The Obama campaign has spent over $9 million to our $2.6 million on television in Iowa and by all accounts we have the momentum. Their pre-occupation with money instead of the power of a strong message speaks volumes to a flailing campaign. And it may answer the question why the campaign premised on hope is closing with hopeless attacks."

More: "We’ll put our message of fighting corporate greed up against Obama’s and Clinton’s mega millions any day of the week, in any state. The bottom line is this is an election, not an auction.  Democrats win elections when they address the real issues facing the lives of Americans. John Edwards is the only Democratic candidate who won office in a 'red' state, defeated a Republican incumbent, and he is the one candidate who will contest every state and win states thought lost to Democrats.” 

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Yes, the momentum sure is going our way..hillaryclinton.com , come see why.
The matching funds for Edwards means he probably can't compete in the Feb Super Tuesday primaries.

It would seem to take a lot of money to compete in all the big media states at the same time.

That's what makes Obama and Clinton the real competitors in this race...... Money

Clinton can afford to lose Iowa more than Obama
A wind for Edwards is more surmountable for Clinton than Obama......

The trick if Edwards wins, is who is second ?
If Edwards wins, third place looks bad.....

Who drops out after Iowa ?
Biden at fifth ? Dodd at fifth ? Richardson at a weak fourth ?

Who do they endorse ?
A big first place finish by Obama or Clinton might sway that decision...
Wanting to be VP might spur them to endorse sooner
Mark Ambinder said this is a normal briefing but, that the press will try to make it out to be something more like, is it a pre emptive thing before the dmr poll tonight?  is the campaign worried?
In reality, it is just a normal briefing about the internals for the week of the first caucus and nothing more.
This is just toooooooo good, A fourth grader, 9 years old ask Chelsa Clinton a question yesterday in Iowa. The question was "does she think her dad woudl be a good first husband"? LMAO Chesla replied; I think you are cute but i don't talk to the press and that includes you.. UH can you say "BYTCH"
Obama campaign paying out-of-state students expenses to return to Iowa to caucus.
According to Iowa TV - Hillary gave Christmas gifts to people in low income housing.
Those 2 candidates are buying an election!

John Edwards will be a GREAT President!

WaPo article = lobbyists are campaigning for Obama in early states.
Lobbyists endorsements for Obama, Hillary, Biden, Dodd, Richardson....

http://www.rollcall.com/politics/kstendorsements.html

John Edwards is NOT on the list!
Go Edwards!
For some reason,Senator Obama's comment about not doing this again in eight years muddied the waters for me with respect to whom to support if Senator Biden's campaign buys the farm after Iowa.  This comment, coupled with the "lack of fire" post of a few days ago makes me question just how much Senator Obama really wants his party's nomination.  And since this comment originated with this wife, I wonder if she has had a slight change of heart about the whole campaign process.  I wouldn't blame either of them if that was true, but their explanation of their comment about not running again in 8 years seemed strange. It has been over forty years since my husband and I lived on my salary as a dental assistant while he finished his last year of college, but I still remember what those times were like. Those experiences are a part of me and helped shape me into who I am today.  And eight years, is a very short time, comparatively speaking, so even if the Obamas are in a different place at that future date, they would still know what being "ordinary" poeple is like.
I guess I just don't understand what they were trying to say. Comments?
Why hasn't First Read published any info about Vote Hope - the 527 and PAC raising MILLIONS for Obama.
The 527 ad supporting Edwards is funded by UNIONS.
Vote Hope is funded by the wealthy Sandler family - and other millionaires.
Obama's momentum has slowed. I still want him to do well though (1st or 2nd). He needs to stop sounding so desperate though. It is completely the wrong time for that.
You media are a blip.  Why would you write this kind of article on Obama, because you're looking for him to fall and want Edwards to rise?  
Obama has flat lined.
IF the the election was a month from now , he'd be i big trouble.
He still may have enough of the blind fanatics to pull this one off, but New Hampshire isn't looking good for him.
Edwards leaves out some very important points.

1. Edwards lost Iowa in 2004.
2. Edwards lost the Primary bid for the Democrat Presidential candidate.
3. Edward then went on as part of  the 2004 loosing ticket for the general election as V.P.

Even IF Edwards won Iowa. He will then loose NH, NV.SC. Which means Hillary would possibly be the nominee. So a Vote for Edwards in Iowa is a vote wasted and for Hillary (NOT FOR CHANGE). Why go through all this and then WASTE your vote Iowa? You voted for Edwards already in 2004 and he LOST it.
Edwards voted 'Yea' for the Iraq War, No?
Barack Obama for President.
It's really sad that people are driven by polls to the degree, they cannot see that the esblishment is at work to avoid any major change in Washington, DC. We are begining to allow the system to destroy a great cnadidate through race baiting and smear campaigns by two of the most vicious couples in the world, all I can say is God save us from this disaster by keeping OBAMA in the running until they uncover the ploy!
Momemtum is NOT going Clintons way.  This is more campaign rhetoric from her clueless supporters posting nonsense.  She is a BAD choice for America.  Obama for a president that heals the nation and gets us back on track in the 21st century.
All the Obama suported I have seen have been concerned grass roots voters.  Is is the Clinton camp with all the fanatics if you ask me.
Dot, for me personally, i think the statement goes more toward Term Limits generally speaking. Way to many politician's get to Washington & think it is their right to remain there.Of,course, voter's think otherwise.
Exactly Kevin. I hope Iowans are weighing what a victory for Edwards here would mean down the road for the party, carefully;especially for those who do not want Clinton.
Dot, I seem to recall that you aren't an Obama supporter anyway, but he's not going to run again in 8 years because he won't win. You don't get a second chance to win the presidency (unless you spend ALL the intervening time running like Edwards has, and what good would that do for the country? none).

I would think it would also be insulting to hear that he should wait 8 years. He's got more elected experience than Hillary or Edwards, more popularity than any of the experienced candidates, and he is good at knowing where to get advice on things. Would YOU want to be told to wait 8 years if YOU were in his position?

It hardly matters, because you live in Illinois. Pipe down.
Obama and his employees should not get away with such loose arguement. Any intellectual should point out a few things.

1) They are cherry picking one poll - the 2 week old Zogby poll - to make their case on the electability issue. There have also been polls showing Edwards fairing best, and polls showing Clinton doing better.

2) They ignore the states in favor of the national numbers when talking about electability. This is because recent polling ha shown that Clinton seems to be the only one who puts certain states - like Virginia - into play. Recent polling also shows Obama doesn't fair well in Minnesota. Ohio is a weakness for him as well.

3) This crowd stuff is weak. Think Howard Dean here when we talk crowd size. Dean drew big crowds. Heck Bill Richardson drew 400 or 500 the other night. Does that mean he is going to win?

4) Lastly, independent voters don't decide who the Democratic nominee is.

Obama is going to be suffering from "Joementum" come Friday morning if this is the best he and his campaign can do.
This is just toooooooo good, A fourth grader, 9 years old ask Chelsa Clinton a question yesterday in Iowa. hillaryhater - [The question was "does she think her dad woudl be a good first husband"? LMAO Chesla replied; I think you are cute but i don't talk to the press and that includes you.. UH can you say "BYTCH" ]

Chelsea is certainly a chip off the old block. Just another one in the family that despises anyone asking them questions. And it's not like they keep Chelsea around for eye-candy. She, Chelsea, appears to be just another prop that will disappear once she is no longer needed. Then she can go back to her "low six-figure" job at the hedge-fund where she works.

Steve, hartford, CT

Thank you for the response.  I would most respectfully suggest that if you read many of my earlier posts, you will not that I have often said I would support Senator Obama if he wins the nomination.

Rick, ky  Thank you for your response, as well.  I was not being critical of Senator Obama--I really didn't (don't?) understand his explanation.
Margaret,
Edwards is as fake as Romney.There's no way those two phonies should be allowed to become president.Je used to charge exorbitant fees to give speeches on poverty, was a hedge fund pirate, and put his wife through such rigorous campaign when diagnosed with cancer. In addition, there's nothing in JE's past to indicate he would fight for the poor. His years as a U.S. senetor were dismal.He voted for the Iraq war when it was politically convenient and popular to do so; then, changed his mind about it when it was popular and expedient to do so.Notice that he's never told voters how he plans to fight the corporations and lobbyists. Is he going to hit them over the heads with a baseball bat or use  a magic wand to make them disappear? Funny how those talking heads haven't asked that question. Voters should think about that.Aside from being a hypocrite for knowingly letting interest groups spend millions on his campaign, he miraculously metamorphosed into a brazing populist overnight.Do you smell opportunists when you think and see Edwards and HRC? You should because that's what they are.Also,  racist to HRC's column.No thinking person should be fooled by those tricksters. I don't understand how such an educated electorate could make the same mistake over and over in each election by nominating such uninspiring losers, then complain later.They truly deserve to lose if they can't see the light.
The funny thing is that because a few Hussein Obama-lovers are all over the net writing Hillary-bashing comments they think their candidate is winning. But Hillary has real people supporting her who are busy doing real things and don't have time to spend on the net all the time. Hussein Obama-lovers have nothing else to do than to spend time on the net.

So Hussein Obama-lovers are in for a big surprise when Hillary wins.

Hillary is the greatest - clever, warm, honest and experienced. You go girl!
Steve, Hartford, Ct

My apologizes for a typo.  I meant to say you will note that I have always said I would support Senator Obama if he is the nominee of his party. And again, most respectfully, even though I live in Illinois, I do get to vote in the General Election and I think my vote then will matter.

The MSM has for months now, been trying to convince anyone that would listen, that Barack has to Win Iowa, or he could'nt compete in the Primary's that will follow.His campaign is'nt downplaying anything!!!!His campaign has been Financed by the people, & the people are in it for the long haul.He was'nt able to raise close to a hundred million, just to compete in Iowa. A win in Iowa can only continue the Momentum into NH & SC, however a 2nd place showing in Iowa will mean that he will have to campaign harder up & until Feb-5th.Personally, my Hope is that Barack will Win in a Landslide in IOwa & the MSM will have egg on their face for putting so much Faith into Politic's as usual ( Hillary). We will see come this thursday, if anything, who was Right & who was Wrong.

" DELUSIONAL THINKING BY COMMON SENSE AMERICAN'S IS OVER "
Hussein-Martin go Away, how about it!!!
The media's expectations of Obama confuses me.  The media has raised the expectations, so that he has to win and by a lot.  It just seems strange to have different expectations in what appears to be a three-way race.  Whoever wins should get a boost, regardless of how much.


[I guess I just don't understand what they were trying to say. Comments?
Dot, Illinois (Sent Monday, December 31, 2007 11:02 AM)]
--Dot, I guess I would comment that the political aspect of the statement is pretty transparent to me.  Peoples' main criticism of Obama is that he is 'too inexperienced' and that he needs eight years to mature.  Well, eight years in the future doesn't do much for his election campaign right now, so this statement was probably made to stem that argument and make people look at him now as opposed to the future.  To the contrary, I believe he really does want the party's nomination (his policies are very Democrat), and he has real Democratic goals he wants to achieve but in a bipartisan manner.  Realistically, I would take the statement with a grain of salt.  He may not have any intention of running again, but that doesn't men he absolutely won't.  They made the point in a very awkward manner, though, didn't they?  That's how it seems to me anyway.
Dot: I've seen your other posts.  You've never been an Obama supporter, so you're not fooling anyone.

But for those who are actually interested in understanding Barack's comment about not running again in 8 years:

It has NOTHING to do with how much he "Wants" the nomination.  This isn't a football game folks.  He was merely pointing out that he's still only a few years removed from the concerns of middle class America: paying off student loans, saving for his kids education, growing out of his family's small condo.  

It's a very valid thought to bring to the conversation.  
John, Des Moines, IA

I can't cite you specific instances, I will be happy to look them up, but I have said a number of times that I would be happy to support Senator Obama if he wins the party's nomination. My first choice is Senator Biden, but if that isn't possible, I will support Senator Obama.  I must say that the alacrity with which supporters of your candidate jump to incorrect perceptions about simple questions about your candidate is unwarranted.  I WILL SUPPORT SENATOR OBAMA IF HE IS THE NOMINEE OF HIS PARTY!!!
I agree with you Dot, it was a strange comment.
Would he change two years into his presidency? Would he still understand 'normal' americans problems.
Washington changes everyone, the process changes everyone. With Obamas observation that he would think differently after a few years, wouldn't that mean that once he was in office that he would change?
Just musings on this strange comment, don't hate me Obama-maniacs, if he gets the nod I will support him, like most dems would. Don't attack us now, you may need us in the general. listen to your candidate, he is playing above the mud for the most part, you should too. Dot does not need to shut up, she is just as worried about our country as all you other folks say you are. Let her speak, it's still a free country.
Since he took federal funds, Edwards can't compete with the Clinton machine once we get towards Tsunami Tuesday.  A vote for him is a vote for Hillary, only Obama can beat her.  

Sad as it is, if you're a supporter of Edwards or a lesser candidate, unless you want the Hill and Bill show to return to the WH, please vote for Obama.  An Obama win in Iowa would push him into wins in NH and SC, and topple the Clinton dynasty.  

America NEEDS you to do this.  Hillary in the general would be horrific, not only because she could win, but because she could lose!  Obama would roll in the general election, and could bring the change Edwards supporters demand.  

Iowa, we depend on you to do the right thing, please don't give us a rerun of the failed Kerry campaign of 4 years ago.  Vote Obama.
Still feeling confident ?

1. Obama's base - young people start leaving him. Some papers and blogs shows that those young voters didn't like his reaction to Bhutto's death. Even Chris Matthew said " That's cold"
2. Obama start loosing "media smooth ride". You can't back up a" speech guy", if he can't talk right wothout making speech.
3. Some Iowan voters say Obama doesn't do well with  Q&A, lack of deeper explainations, thoughts, too much same thing they heard in JJ Diner, not much new, too stiff, too much lines.
4. Morning Joe said, Republicans are scared if Hillary win the nomenee. Republican don't have to say a word if Obama win the nomenee. That is why Republicans are pushing Obama.
5. Voters don't like Obama attack everyone now. He has been using Edwards and now Edwards poll is better than his and he is insecure.
6. Media threw knives to Hillary for the whole time and never gave her an easy ride. But she is still standing, leading, looks more vetted, tested, tougher, stronger than ever. She outshine Obama. Obama never had experince like Hillary's for the whole campaign.
7. Oprah did not help Obama. After voters noticed 130 "present" voting record, they changed their minds because some of the issues are about their interests and Obama did not help.
8. Obama's wife told voters "now or never". That gave voters a message of what type of candidate they are. Another example of showing INEXPERINCE. It seperated him from Hillary, Biden, Dodd, Edwards... who have been through way more than him.

It hardly matters, because you live in Illinois. Pipe down.
Steve, Hartford, CT (Sent Monday, December 31, 2007 11:41 AM)

Exhibit A why many people are driven away by some Obama supporters.  

Dot asked a fair question - a reasonable question, that in no way was disrespectful towards Obama, his wife or his family.  And Steve responds with rudeness.

Very typical of that breed of Obama supporters who cannot tolerate anything but platitudes for their man.  How sad they will be when they at last discover he is only human.
I must say that the alacrity with which supporters of your candidate jump to incorrect perceptions about simple questions about your candidate is unwarranted.  I WILL SUPPORT SENATOR OBAMA IF HE IS THE NOMINEE OF HIS PARTY!!!
Dot, Illinois (Sent Monday, December 31, 2007 12:33 PM)

I absolutely agree, Dot.  It's a turn-off for undecided voters when their questions are responded to with such a rude, dismissive attitude.  
Obama has spent more time and money in Iowa than any of the democratic candidates.  He must win Iowa to continue.

And, as we know, he has yet to win a single debate!
Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland campaigned in Iowa for Hillary over the weekend. On Sunday, the Gov. was quoted saying that the Iowa caucus "make no sense" and are "hugely undemocratic". Statements like this, not a campaign managers press briefing, cause Iowa caucus goers blood to boil.
The slippage in Iowa has started, Over 1000 Iowans pack Obama rally today (50% undecided!)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VdmM9z-XjHQ
lol Dot!

I see things are still a little chippy in here - be glad when Jan 3 come and goes! :)

Based on the entire campaign, nothing has changed my vote - I am supporting Senator Obama. That said, I will support whoever the eventual winner is, and none of the Democratic candidates are evil (I hope) - so maybe let's take a chill pill on this last day of 2007! :)
Dot, I have never taken you for being anti-Obama. I didn't here the comment from the Obama camp about not running in 8 years, but I'm sure it is similar to Biden saying he won't accept Secretary of State.  They both want to be president and are actually the most deserving candidates running.  The problem is Hillary supporters keep deflecting to say Joe should be SOS and Obama should wait his turn.  Their view is that Hillary's entitled to this chance.  Of course they are basing that on the fact people have been expecting her to run, but that doesn't mean she's entitled to the nomination.
The MSM is now trying to push Edwards in Iowa.  Not because they actually support him, but because that's want the Clinton's want.  She came out and said weeks ago that she doesn't care if she wins Iowa, so long as Obama does not.

People for change who are torn between Edwards and Obama need to see this for what it is.  Obama is the only candidate with a real shot of beating Hillary (and she knows it).  Right now, the establishment machine (including MSM) is trying to fight the change American's desperately want.  Please show them at the polls, that we aren't buying their BS any longer.
I can only hope and pray that the Iowa caucus participants possess sufficient sophistication to see through the deceptive and malicious attacks that have been made on Senator Obama and trust their hearts because the choice they make on January 3 will dramatically shape the direction of this presidential campaign and ultimately our country's future. My Christmas wish is that they will reject the politics of fear and personal destruction and take a leap of faith and hope by voting for Senator Obama--a man of character and vision who offers the promise of a new and different way of addressing our national and global priorities. Waxing a bit nostalgic here during the holiday season--remembering a time when we came together as a nation to address wrongs and achieve lofty goals, a time when all the world looked to America as a beacon of liberty and freedom and courage. I know in my heart Senator Obama can take us back there.

Our dreams unlock the door

To a place we once called home

Where full of life’s sweet promise

Our spirits freely roamed

Back to a time when we still believed

In all of life’s possibilities

Our dreams can lead us

To a future all our own

bjw


Senator Obama and his campaign can unlock the door to the realization of our dreams for ourselves and this great nation that we are blessed to live in.
...which doesn't make you an Obama supporter at this stage of the game, Dot.

I apologize if the tone of my post was irritable, but I do get annoyed at hearing that Obama should wait and run again later (and it IS a fairly common argument). I don't understand your perception that not wanting to run 8 years down the road means Obama doesn't "want" the nomination badly enough. Are you saying he isn't ambitious enough? That would surprise me, since the usual line of criticism is the opposite of that.

Anyway, Obama made the point in "The Audacity of Hope" that being in Washington tends to distance one from what life is like for real Americans. Instead of seeing homeless people ask for change, or talking with people about life's problems at a laundromat or something, one is instead meeting with rich people in suits almost all the time. So the only things one ever hears, then, come from rich people in suits. That's why Washington has such a strange culture of governance: a fundamental disconnect between those in power and those they govern has emerged. I think that might be Obama's point--but I don't work for the campaign, so feel free to ask someone at www.barackobama.com about it.
NSMSNBC

Thank you for your response.  Very informative.  As you know, I like to ask questions in an effort to get to know as much as I can about all of the candidates. Lately, however, I have begun to think that this site may not be the forum on which to ask those questions.  Too many who post here seem to erroneously detect implied criticism of their candidate when my posts are merely attempts to get to know their candidate's positions better. Personally, I think that lessens the content of this site--intelligent discussions about how a candidate feels about a certain issue, and requests for clarifications of a candidate's comments add much to the content of this site.  Just my opinion, perhaps I am wrong.
I wonder when the time comes to bring the Democratic Party together for 2008 General Elections, who is best suited for both being the nominee and bring together ALL parts of the Democratic Party and Independents to vote on the same ticket? I believe that Clinton, Obama, and Edwards are great candidates for the party and can each be a great nominee, but I do believe that after this process is done whomever is the nominee will have a hard job in pulling together the party plus independent voters (like myself) against a very weak Republican field (let us not forget that we all thought Al Gore was much stronger against Bush and look what happened to that election). I think that we should keep an eye on who will be the VP nominee for the Democrats. My gut feeling is Clinton, Obama, and Edwards will choose outside of the pack of candidates that are running for president, and the reason is fear of being upstaged(especially if Clinton wins, she will not choose Obama for her VP).
I certainly hope the people of Iowa don't miss this chance to go forward with the strongest candidate against the Republicans. By all the editorials, match-up polls, and blogs, on both sides, that I have seen that candidate is Obama.

I see major problems with Clinton and Edwards. Edwards is seen as way to liberal and confrontational to attract independents, plus he lost already and so there is a perception issue by default. Not only is Clinton going to be horribly bloodied by the time the general rolls around, she will never be an effective president unless the congress is pure Democratic as well. She will constantly be harrassed by the Republicans for as long as she is in office and I personally don't want to face 4 more years of bitter polarization. 50% of the country will never accept her just as the other 50% never accepted Bush.

Obama is the only candidate that has Republicans changing parties in Iowa to caucus for him. He is the only one that will go on to win NH with the help of independents who otherwise would vote for McCain. He already has a stellar reputation in IL for bringing opposing sides together and producing results. This goes for his community organizing years as well as his time in the state legislature.

In my opinion, Obama's credentials as an electable candidate are unquestionable.
To gain momentum, Obama must finish above Clinton

Likewise, to gain momentum Hillary must finish above Obama

Unless it's a blow out, both will be competitive in NH

First place would be a real buzz for either and might 'seal the deal' in NH

I don't think ANYBODY KNOWS what will happen on Thrusday.....
People may still be making up their minds...

Make the right choice, Iowa !!

Obama '08
let's face the facts: iowa is unpredictable because of second choice votes. any one of the three could win iowa. clinton and obama have the money to compete after iowa...edwards in my opinion is wasted vote.


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