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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Obama camp still feeling confident

Posted: Monday, December 31, 2007 10:26 AM by Chuck Todd



From NBC's Mark Murray and Chuck Todd
Obama campaign manager David Plouffe briefed the political press corps, via conference call and PowerPoint, on the state of the campaign as seen through their eyes.

The memo ticks through a series of numbers the campaign believes proves they are the candidate with momentum. But coming on the eve of the release of the final Des Moines Register poll (due out tonight), one can't help but also see the memo and call as a bit defensive. Overall, this was a presentation that a few months ago we might have expected from, say, Clinton rather than Obama. The campaign wasn't necessarily downplaying Iowa but they certainly were trying to leave the impression that Iowa's only the beginning, not the end.

In the call, Plouffe -- acknowledging that the polls show the race to be close -- cited the size of crowds at Obama events in Iowa, including a large number of undecided voters who are attending them. "Undecideds are still very interested in Sen. Obama," he said.

Plouffe also declared the Obama campaign has having the strongest organization in Iowa, and he said Obama and Edwards are the strongest second-choice options. "We think that's very important." And he added that Obama would capitalize from a large turnout.

Plouffe went on to say the race in Iowa a "one-on-seven" contest -- among Obama, Clinton, Edwards, and the various interest groups supporting Clinton and Edwards. including the "shadowing" pro-Edwards 527 group.

"We feel very good about where we are heading into Thursday," Plouffe said before going on to tout Obama's standing and organization in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, and the Feb. 5 states.

Plouffe also delivered this argument we haven't heard explicitly from the campaign before: that because Edwards accepted federal matching funds, he will be reliant on interest groups and the DNC until the Democratic convention -- if he wins the nomination.

*** UPDATE *** Edwards communications director Chris Kofinis issued this statement to Plouffe's assertions on the conference call regarding the interest-group help Edwards is receiving, as well as his ability to spend money -- if the nominee -- because he accepted federal matching funds. “The Obama campaign has spent over $9 million to our $2.6 million on television in Iowa and by all accounts we have the momentum. Their pre-occupation with money instead of the power of a strong message speaks volumes to a flailing campaign. And it may answer the question why the campaign premised on hope is closing with hopeless attacks."

More: "We’ll put our message of fighting corporate greed up against Obama’s and Clinton’s mega millions any day of the week, in any state. The bottom line is this is an election, not an auction.  Democrats win elections when they address the real issues facing the lives of Americans. John Edwards is the only Democratic candidate who won office in a 'red' state, defeated a Republican incumbent, and he is the one candidate who will contest every state and win states thought lost to Democrats.” 

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I absolutely agree, Dot.  It's a turn-off for undecided voters when their questions are responded to with such a rude, dismissive attitude.  
Carrie, Eastern Iowa (Sent Monday, December 31, 2007 12:56 PM)
--I agree with Dot's observation of some of the replies to her post, and I won't defend that.  But why always focus on those people or comments when there are other people who did and do not answer in such a way.  Are Obama folks really worse than say Clinton folks or Biden folks for example?  (They could be, but that has not been my observation, though ...).  A sub-set of supporters for any candidate are loco.  Hopefully, people can keep the candidates and supporters separate--judge the candidates, not the people.


Obama does have a point in what he says though, that he remembers what it is like to face the challenges the majority of Americans face.  I think it makes him a stronger candidate, and I think it would make him fight harder for us.
Obama is a con man. More like con man. His sixth and seventh important acts as a senator were to vote for a bill that made it nearly impossible for ordinary people to sue giant corporations who rob & defraud. He voted for President Bush's energy bill, sending more than $13 billion in subsidies and tax breaks to oil, coal, and nuclear companies. He voted to allow credit card companies to raise interest rates over 30 percent. He spoke out against the Patriot Act, only to vote in favor of reauthorizing it, he cannot commit to have all troops out of Iraq by 2013, supported Bush's sanctions against Iran and co-sponsored a bill designating the Iranian National Guard a terrorists organization, he implied he'd invade Pakistan.. He accepts money from lobbyists then denies it.
Mark:

My blood is not boiling.  He has a point; the caucus is harder for those who work at night to attend.  He is entitled to his opinion, as everyone who has ranted about Iowa being first is entitled to their opinion.

Incidentally, I love how many people on this blog, and elsewhere, say how this or that makes Iowans mad, or Iowans love this, or Iowans won't go for that.  What I want to know from these people is how many times they have been to Iowa?  I'd bet zero for almost all of them.  
Wow...and still nothing about Ron Paul.
Imagine that!
Steve, Hartford, Ct
...which doesn't make you an Obama supporter at this stage of the game, Dot.

I apologize if the tone of my post was irritable, but I do get annoyed at hearing that Obama should wait and run again later (and it IS a fairly common argument).
----------------------------------------------------
Okay, I'll grant you that I am not an Obama supporter at this stage of the game. But this stage of the game is not all there is---even though I support Senator Biden now, that becomes a moot point if his candidacy falters. If your candidate makes it to the general election(which, after all is the one that counts) I will happily support him.  Okay? Senator Obama and Senator Clinton supporters need to realize that which ever candidates wins the nomination, in November, he/she will need the support of those people who voted for someone else in the primaries and caucuses.  Without the support of former Biden, Dodd, or Richardson supporters, the Democratic nominee will have a more difficult time defeating the Republican nominee.  Rude and dismissive comments about those supporters of "lower tier" candidates does little to endear the candidate you support to those supporters of others.  Nor does it garner support for you candidate for undecided independents.

With respect to the comment that Senator Obama should wait and run again later, I don't think I said that.  My point was that I don't think eight years will drastically change his outlook on things, which I think is good at the present time--his values and goals seem to be strongly rooted.  Which in part, was why I didn't understand his comment in the first place.
Obama is the only one who stands for the truth..Obama 08
TO: Chris, Adaville, Iowa, FROM: Big Al in Chicago- Don't you Iowa people get some Chicago news? Even I can pick up WHO-AM radio from Des Moines!
The only truth Rezkobama understands is the almighty dollar. He has been on the take from corrupt and indicted Chicago businessmen for years! The Chicago Sun-Times newspaper is slightly left of Lenin and even they have run a series of articles detailing Rezkobamas link to the cancerous Democratic machine that runs Chicago and Cook County.
Democrats like to cry about stolen elections because they are the experts on that subject- there has not been a Republican mayor of Chicago for over 80 years! That is not the will of the people, that is one party rule where pawns on bloated payrolls owe their jobs to the Democrats!

Vote early and vote often!

Big Al
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/12/31/whos-interests-are-special/

http://www.time.com/time/2007/thepage/Obama_Strategy.pdf

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071231/NEWS09/71231014/1001/NEWS

And the DMR's final poll will be out tonight.

While I'm obviously not an Obama supporter, even I am surprised at the seeming last minute ineptitude of his brain trust and potentially disastrous, counter-intuitive, idea of RAISING expectations.
Calling Unions, "special interests", just like a republican and the last-minute attempts to torpedo John Edwards don't seem to be very good ideas either.


Van


Van  
Obama will motivate the country in a way that no other candidate can. Make us proud Iowa!
Carrie, eastern Iowa, Extra-Strength MIDOL helps some women!!!!!!!!!
Dot, i gave you a response to my take on the question. Anyone who says my response was disrespectful to you, has no idea what there talking about.
Van, Hillary & her supporter's are more Ruthless than anyone of the candidates running.You all see her Dream VANishing, right before your eyes.These last 72 hours or so will show a lot more of behind the scenes Carville. Barack has taken the aura of Electability from her & it shows in his Campaign appearances. She did'nt even take questions at a campaign stop shown on C-Span this weekend. George bush lite, my ass, She is cut from the same cloth.

" DELUSIONAL THINKING BY COMMON SENSE AMERICAN'S IS OVER"
Barack Hussein Rezkobama is your typical crooked Chicago Democrat on the take from special interests. You coastal dwelling people get very little Chicago local news. Even the Chicago Sun-Times newspaper, which is slightly left of Lenin, ran a series of articles on Rezkobama's crooked dealings. Do your homework- Rezmar Corporation.
One of Illinois' most prominent local Democratic fundraisers, Rezko and his companies donated over $200,000 to Obama. Rezko also hosted a 2003 event to boost Obama's campaign fund.

Obama and his wife were already flush with success when they went house hunting last year. Their combined income--bolstered by payments for his best-selling autobiography and advances for future books--topped $1.67 million. His wife, Michelle, had recently been promoted to a $316,962-a-year position as vice president at the University of Chicago Hospitals. House has 4 fireplaces. Rezkobama, a man of the people! The Chicago Sun-Times recently reported that Mr. Rezko, around the same general period he was wheeling with Obama, also provided a preferential price for a property purchase by U. S. Representative Luis Gutierrez (D). There is a pattern here. Instead of transferring cash to buy influence, Rezko was engaging in structured property transactions and preferential treatment of public officials to confer significant financial benefits on them, far above the legal limits of any legitimate political contribution permitted by federal law.

Barack Hussein Rezkobama wrote letters to city and state officials supporting his political patron Tony Rezko's successful bid to get more than $14 million from taxpayers to build apartments for senior citizens. The deal included $855,000 in development fees for Rezko and his partner, Allison S. Davis, Obama's former boss, according to records from the project, which was four blocks outside Obama's state Senate district. Obama's letters, written nearly nine years ago, for the first time show the Democratic presidential hopeful did a political favor for Rezko -- a longtime friend, campaign fund-raiser and client of the law firm where Obama worked -- who was indicted last fall on federal charges that accuse him of demanding kickbacks from companies seeking state business under Illinois Democratic Governor Blagojevich. In addition to a land deal, Sen. Barack Obama's ties to indicted dealmaker Antoin "Tony" Rezko include an internship the senator provided the son of a contributor at the request of Rezko, an Obama spokesman confirmed Saturday. John Aramanda served as an intern for Obama in 2005, said Obama spokesman Robert Gibbs. His father is Joseph Aramanda, a Rezko business associate who was named as an unindicted co-conspirator in a federal corruption case against Rezko. Aramanda has contributed $11,500 to Obama since 2000, Gibbs said.
Barack Hussein Rezkobama has been friends with Rezko for 17 years. Rezko has been a political patron to Obama and many others, helping to raise millions of dollars for them through his own contributions and by hosting fund-raisers in his home.
Obama, who has worked as a lawyer and a legislator to improve living conditions for the poor, took campaign donations from Rezko even as Rezko's low-income housing empire was collapsing, leaving many African-American families in buildings riddled with problems -- including squalid living conditions, vacant apartments, lack of heat, squatters and drug dealers.
The building in Englewood was one of 30 Rezmar rehabbed in a series of troubled deals largely financed by taxpayers. Every project ran into financial difficulty. More than half went into foreclosure, a Chicago Sun-Times investigation has found.
"Their buildings were falling apart," said a former city official. "They just didn't pay attention to the condition of these buildings."
Eleven of Rezko's buildings were in Obama's state Senate district. Rezkobama is friends with Tony Rezko, who was charged last fall with demanding kickbacks on state business deals under Illinois Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich.

The Democrats bemoan the high cost of healthcare and claim it is due to the greed of insurance and pharmaceutical firms, then perhaps Barrack Hussein Rezkobama can explain how the University of Chicago Hospitals can afford to pay Michelle Obama a $316,962-a-year position as vice president for community and external affairs. I guess you can't run a hospital without a VP of Community Affairs and those jobs require at least $300K+ salary. Perhaps this would be better spent on patient care! The U of C Hospitals are right in Obama's Hyde Park neighborhood, how convenient! Who got Michelle Obama the job? Did Tony Rezko pull some strings?

Vote Early and Vote Often!

Big Al
Carrie, eastern Iowa, Extra-Strength MIDOL helps some women!!!!!!!!!

Rick,ky (Sent Monday, December 31, 2007 4:35 PM)

Wow, Rick.  I am constantly amazed at your ability to make intelligent arguments grounded in issues rather than personally attack people.

Oh and by the way, I've heard Viagra works wonders as well.  Maybe you wouldn't be so cranky if you...well, you know.
Rick, ky
Dot, i gave you a response to my take on the question. Anyone who says my response was disrespectful to you, has no idea what there talking about.

----------------------------------------------------

Nothing wrong with your response to me.  It was informative.  Happy New Year!
Obama is imploding. After another few days of his sniveling, carping and whining and then losing, followed no doubt by more sniveling, carping and whining, his "politics of hope" will be exposed for the total fraud it is. In the end, Barak Obama may not win a single state, much less the nomination.
I just watched Bill Clinton on C-Span speaking for Hillary.  He listed a number of things Hillary has done and what she can do---beginning with "Hillary thinks...."  Personally, how can he know what Hillary thinks?  Then to proceed with exactly "what she would do"  -- he is not credible!!  He is projecting HIS own ideas and crediting Hill-a-Bill joined at the hip.  IF Hillary has in fact done all these alleged specific things, why has she not mentioned them????  If she is going to do all these alledged specific things, why has she not talked in detail about them???
What we've gotten from Hill is a lot of generalities and evasiveness!!!  Can she not find her mouth or her brain to speak for herself???  Truth, as I see it, she is incapable of giving specifics, she has to use Bill as both her think tank and her mouthpiece.  Guess we all know why she has sold her soul to him.  We Americans cannot be blinded by Bill's "she thinks what SHE, HERSELF, has told us.  Bill will say anything to get themselves back in the white house, and I, personnally, think that is disgraceful!
NinaK

Big Al.  Michelle Obama got her job on her own merits.  She is intelligent, independent, and well-schooled.  She is also a FIRST-CLASS LADY!  Unlike Hillary who failed her bar exams TWICE in Wash DC, is NOT independent, and is NOT a first-class lady.
Big Al, I also think you are a big,  bitter racist and narrow-minded! Mr. Obama is the best candidate for our time and I have faith he can lead our country back to greatness.  What can YOU do to make our country better?  What can YOU do to make your state better?  What can YOU do to make your city/town better?  What can YOU do to make your street better? Umm, probably nothing...you are too racist and too bitter to give of your time and self!!
if we humans were learning by our mistakes we would encourage Edwards to give Obama the chance to win as he is a "Fresh" choice like a breath of fresh air that may purify the past "unpure" actions of Presidents who have served. Then we can move into the future with optimism, "Pure" hope and deliverance from stress. Edwards will make a good Vice-President
if we humans were learning by our mistakes we would encourage Edwards to give Obama the chance to win as he is a "Fresh" choice like a breath of fresh air that may purify the past "unpure" actions of Presidents who have served. Then we can move into the future with optimism, "Pure" hope and deliverance from stress. Edwards will make a good Vice-President
Hi folks--

From Iowa:  If this were a primary, Obama would clean up Thursday night.  It's not, and the old school candidates (Clinton and Edwards) possess numerically more of the (stereo)typical Democratic voters---union sympathizers, neo-liberals, NPR-types of self-satisfied do-gooders (in contrast, in fairness, to the polyster-clad numbskulls populating the Republican caucuses down the hall in the school cafeteria).  If Obama can even come close to the 'dead heat' polls, it should be counted as a huge win for him, here, as he will do it by attracting people to the political process who are significantly more 'mainstream', independent-thinking, and so forth.  A huge question is whether the 'old school' (Clintonites, Bush-Cheney people, entrenched interests in general) has fouled things up so badly that the 'normal' people (read: Neither of the two variants described above) will be willing to spend two hours on a cold Thursday night to say they are 'fed up.'  I think Iowans are ready to continue 'throwing the bums out', as evidenced, specifically, here, by: 1) Voting out a 28 year incumbent liberal Republican congressman (Jim Leach); and, 2) In Cedar Rapids, specifically, literally throwing out the entire form of government only two years ago.  Obama best epitomizes the overriding sense here; if he can get a quarter to a third of the people to show up and be involved, he's the winner.  (P.S., unless the Republicans nominate a real demagogue, the middle voters in Iowa will abandon her in November.)  Have fun, everyone; for me, I'm deciding whether I want to forego a cold beer and the first half of a football game I don't care too much about to go caucus.  It's a tough call.
I am stunned that the silly Democrats in Iowa might vote for the populist candidate in the Democratic caucus and thus throw away their vote and help get Hillary elected.  If your vote is going to result in corporatist triangulator winning anyway why not cut out a few steps and vote for Obama directly.  The Pritzker family, thousands of corporate lawyers, and Big Pharma all thank you.
Sigh, I see that the Obama cultist have set up shop here. Of all the candidates in the Democratic field his following seems to be the most cult-like and messianic. Other than two books and two years in the US Senate, what do you base all this excess enthusiasm on?  Obama is finally getting the long, hard look he should have gotten when he first came out of the box. He is getting beat up because he has been screwing up. It is called vetting a candidate kiddies get used to it.  
If he survives he will be better for it.  But it isn't likely that he will survive.  Obama is the Wizard of Oz on steroids, all flash-no substance.  He is loosing core constituencies of the Democratic party; not a good plan for the General Election.  He lost the Unions now he is irritating the trial lawyers, who is next the teachers?  
Hello! The man is running for the Democratic party nomination!  These are your go-to guys and gals who do the street level grunt work in the General.  They are the trench workers who have fought the battles before, you can not replace that kind of tribal knowledge with thousand of youngsters, even if they decide to show up.
Obama is slagging the core of the Democratic Party to pick up vote with people who are not invested in the party--a short sighted decision.  But what do you expect from a guy who pals around with Joe Lieberman DINO extradinare?  Now or Never?  I'll take never thank you very much.


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