January 2008 - Posts
From NBC's Chuck ToddCNN did dial testing and reported that a slighty majority of their group gave the debate to Clinton but then added a caveat that the group sided with Obama on the Iraq issue. Interesting that they would include that addendum.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Here's a statement the Republican National Committee just issued: “The Hollywood elites loved the Obama and Clinton show tonight, but average Americans who will most feel the pain of the Democrats’ misguided policies will not."
More: "Even while Clinton and Obama both admitted to supporting tax increases on hard-working Americans, they failed to fully account for how they would pay for all their proposals. Both spoke to retreating from the War on Terror, but failed to admit their records of defunding the troops and weakening our national defense. Today, Obama was crowned the “most liberal senator,” and his out-of-the-mainstream proposals left no question that he deserved the title. Clinton’s failure to explain her changing positions will do nothing to restore trust with the American people. After watching these two Democrats pander to Hollywood’s liberals, I have never been more confident that a Republican will win in November.”
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
A friend watching the debate at home -- we in the press file can't sometimes see what audiences are seeing on TV -- kindly made a list of all the celebrities in the audience.
You'll find the list below, and NBC/NJ has added who they have donated to....
Diane Keaton... Hasn't given to anyone
Rob Reiner... Edwards, Clinton, Richardson and Dodd... apparently not an Obama fan.
Steven Spielberg and Kate Capshaw.. Spielberg has maxed out in giving to all the Democratic candiates
Stevie Wonder...No record of him giving either though Obama plays "Signed Sealed Delivered" at every campaign stop.
Bradley Whitford... Looks like Josh from the West Wing is a bipartisan guy. He's maxed out to Biden, Obama and Ron Paul.
possibly Fran Drescher (a Hillary supporter has given her $2,300) and Topher Grace (no record of giving)
Pierce Brosnan... The Brit is staying neutral, hasn't given to anyone
America Ferrera... Ugly Betty campaigns for Clinton but hasn't given her any money.
From NBC/NJ's Athena JonesClinton claims she's said many times that had she known then what she knows now, she would not have given Bush that authority on Iraq. Sure
she's said this before, but not that often, at least not on the stump
as I've heard in the last several months. In fact, Clinton rarely
mentions this issue on the stump -- almost never, unless asked a direct
question on it, which hasn't happened lately. There's no good reason
for her to bring this up, since it just reminds the anti-war folks
about this vote -- as if they need reminding -- which she refuses to
say was a mistake, as they would like to see her do.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
I guess it's fitting in Los Angeles... That the call of "Can't we all just get along" apparently can be true on a stage with the Democratic candidates.... Whatever Obama whispered in Clinton's ear.. it was a great image to end the debate with. He's not trying to snub her now...
Adds NBC/NJ's Athena Jones (a bit sarcastically): They "heart" each other. Did you see him pull out her chair? Oh what a peachy end to a sweet debate. Like powdered sugar.
From NBC's Chuck ToddAt about 9:15, I was toying with the following lead to my post-debate wrap, "Nobody lost this debate, let's make that clear." And then the subject shifted to Iraq, that's when this debate turned Obama's way.
Both candidates started out soft and strong; it appeared another kumbaya debate was about to take place.
And then came Iraq and Clinton once again showed why the issue has been such an Achilles heel. Obama just has an easier time talking about his position. Clinton has to sit there and re-explain why she was for it and why she's not for it now. It's never a good moment for her which is the recent shift to the economy has been so welcomed by Team Clinton.
Overall, this was a strong night for Obama as he proved that he belonged on the same stage as Hillary Clinton. And that's an important accomplishment for Obama. Because, I keep wondering, are undecided voters waiting to see if Obama can prove his mettle for the presidency?
There's a theory that believes just that. And if that theory is true then this debate could prove to be very important to Obama. The audience for this debate was undecided voters and former Edwards supporters and I'm guessing these folks have a fairly low bar for Obama to prove himself to them, compared to the bar they have for Clinton since they are still not on board with the more well-known candidate. Think about the progress Obama's made in the debate department since
early '07. She regularly cleaned his clock at these early debates but
now that advantage seemed to disappear. And Clinton can't afford for that gap to disappear.
It's interesting that neither candidate is feeling the pressure of losing on Feb. 5; If anything, one gets the sense that both candidates realize this campaign could go on a few more months so no sense throwing any desperate attacks tonight. Neither candidate took crazy shots at each other which tells me that neither thinks they are behind.
Obama's strongest moments may have been toward the end when the debate shifted to Iraq. Clinton struggles to defend her actions at the time with her new position now and it just doesn't come across well. If this debate were being scored like a boxing match, the first 60 minutes would have been judged as a draw but the last 30 minutes would have been given to Obama on points, thanks to the Iraq issue.
If Obama does go on to defeat Clinton for the nomination, he will join McCain in winning his party's nod on the back of Iraq, even as the issue landscape has shifted to the economy. Go figure.
Two other extraneous thoughts: Democratic Party elders should be ecstatic about the civil tone the two
kept throughout the debate. Contrast the tone tonight with McCain v.
Romney last night. ... And CNN did the Democratic Party no favors by filling the audience with celebrities. Maybe that's good for CNN to have those folks to cut to during the broadcast but it only feeds into the stereotype that Hollywood and the Democratic Party are inseparable.
From NBC's Chuck ToddThe Iraq section of this debate was not good for Clinton.
From NBC's Mark Murray
For the last couple of months, Iraq has virtually disappeared from the campaign trail. Indeed, opinion polls now show the economy -- not Iraq -- to be the biggest concern to Americans.
But for about the last 20 minutes, the issue returned with full force -- over the 2002 Iraq war resolution, the Levin amendment, how to withdraw from Iraq, and the use of force in general.
From NBC's Athena Jones
Clinton has been highlighting support of Iraq war critics in Congress. In recent days, she mentioned MA Rep. Jim McGovern (D) when in Springfield, MA the other day.
And now Maxine Waters and her "Out of Iraq" group at this debate.
From NBC's Andy Merten
By my count, there have been six McCain mentions so far. It's strangely similar to the Republican debate last week in Florida, when Clinton's name was invoked many times.
From NBC/NJ's Mike MemoliObama criticizes Hillary for having different positions on the drivers
license issue. One of Bill Clinton's critiques of the press coverage is
that Obama had a similar hang-up one week later after Hillary's
much-publicized answer during the MSNBC debate in Philadelphia. And in
her response tonight, Hillary hinted at Obama's trouble during another
CNN debate in November.
Here's what Obama said in Las
Vegas. Asked if he'd support giving a drivers license to illegals,
Obama said that as a state senator he voted to require illegal aliens
to get them. He then said he is "not proposing that that's what we do"
now. Wolf Blitzer tried to clarify his response at least twice, and
ended the exchange by saying: "This is the kind of question that is
sort of available for a yes or no answer. Either you support it or you
oppose it."
From NBC's Chuck ToddObama has been much more comfortable bringing up McCain in various answers than Clinton. Is there a reason for that?
From NBC/NJ's Aswini AnburajanIf you want proof that these candidates aren't going for the jugular tonight when the spotlight is glaring upon them.. take a look at what Obama said about the Clinton presidency in the speech he just gave yesterday, it's certainly of a different tone than his answer on the Clinton presidency tonight:
"We've reached Americans of all political stripes who are more interested in turning the page than turning up the heat on our opponents. That's how Democrats will win in November and build a majority in Congress. Not by nominating a candidate who will unite the other party against us, but by choosing one who can unite this country around a movement for change.," he said.
AND
If you choose change, you will have a nominee who isn't just playing on the same electoral map where half the country starts out against us, because you will have a nominee who has already brought in more Independents and Republicans;
AND
'I know it is tempting – after another presidency by a man named George Bush – to simply turn back the clock, and to build a bridge back to the 20th Century. There are those will tell us that our Party should nominate someone who is more practiced in the art of pursuing power; that's it's not yet our turn or our time.
AND
It is about the past versus the future. And when I am the nominee, the Republicans won't be able to make this election about the past because you will have already chosen the future.
AND
It's time for new leadership for the woman I met who can't get Medicaid to cover the needs of her sick child. She can't afford to wait another four years or another fifteen years to get health care because we've put forward a nominee who can't bring Democrats and Republicans together to get things done. I know that the reason Americans don't have health care isn't because no one is forcing them to buy it – it's because they can't afford it.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroHillary's been asked that question before and it is central to Obama's argument -- why should the country vote for a Clinton when there's been either a Bush or a Clinton on the ballot for a generation. She knocked it out of the park with a line she's used before, saying, it took a Clinton to clean up after the first Bush and it might take another Clinton to clean up after this Bush. It's about as good as she could answer it and it got a standing ovation. Still, Obama can make the case as generational change and turning the page on the politics of old.
*** UPDATE *** NBC/NJ's Athena Jones adds that that line is one that's not new. I think I've heard line many, many, many, many times, she writes. It's always a winner, always gets laughs and applause, just like it did here.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroWhen Obama had the chance, he talked about crumbling schools in South Carolina, instead of crumbling schools in Los Angeles or Oakland or Oklahoma or Tennessee or Brooklyn or any other Feb. 5 state.
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
On the Kennedy/new generation question..
She seemed to even cut Wolf off she was so ready. She delivered the same answer she's given lately on this stuff
From NBC/NJ's Mike MemoliLast week, Hillary Clinton's camp had a contest where the winner would get to sit next to Chelsea at tonight's debate. I'm not sure who won, but the camera just showed a new Clinton endorser -- Los Angeles area-Rep. Maxine Waters -- next to the former first daughter
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Clinton delivered a, dare I say, more inspirational explanation of why government is not a business in answering the question why are either one of you more qualified than Romney to run the country since they haven't run a business. She talked about standing up for values, etc.
Obama, in turn, decided to turn the screws and stick the knife in Romney, saying Romney hasn't gotten much of a return on his investment during this presidential campaign, adding that he'd be happy to compare his management style to Romney's over the last year of this campaign. Yikes.
From NBC's Chuck ToddThis appears to be a very polite but substantive debate so far. The health care discussion should make the wonk wing of the Democratic Party very happy. The most striking thing about this confrontation so far is the improvement in Obama as a debater. There was a time that the gap between Clinton and Obama at these debates was vast. Tonight, there's hardly a difference; Obama's benefitting big time from the no-time limit rule. Clinton, btw, is doing well herself; both are making a very professional and, frankly, nice impressions to what is likely to be one of the largest debate audiences to date.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini AnburajanObama is full throttle on immigration these days,
voluntarily bringing up the issue at rallies and town halls and
compared to Iowa fully expressing his views on how he thinks the issue
has been demonized and turned into a "political football."
To get how far he's come on this answer... take a look at what he said South Central LA today: "I
think it's very important that we have an intelligent debate about
immigration that is not tinged with our attitudes of what people should
look like who come here. Cause my attitude is everybody should come here.
My father when he came here, he didn't look like you know - he didn't
look like he stepped off the Mayflower, you know. ... And let me remind
everybody that not everybody who came in through Ellis Island had their
papers in order. I'm just telling the truth now. Not everybody was all -- you know -- all had their stuff together, so we just need to remember
that."
From NBC's Mark Murray
An issue that all but disappeared after mid-November has resurfaced... Obama hit Clinton for her reversal on the issue, and then Hillary responded that Obama didn't necessarily answer the question at the CNN debate in Las Vegas.
Touche...
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
Obama is full throttle on immigration these days, voluntarily bringing up the issue at rallies and town halls and compared to Iowa fully expressing his views on how he thinks the issue has been demonized and turned into a "political football."
To get how far he's come on this answer... take a look at what he said South Central LA today:
"I think it's very important that we have an intelligent debate about immigration that is not tinged with our attitudes of what people should look like who come here. Cause my attitude everybody should come here. My father when he come here, he didn't look like you know - he didn't look like he stepped off the Mayflower, you know. ... And let me remind everybody that not everybody who came in through Ellis Island had their papers in order. I'm just telling the truth now. Not everybody was all – you know – all had their stuff together, so we just need to remember that."
From NBC's Chuck ToddThe question about immigration costing jobs for minorities was a tricky one. Obama answered well; Clinton answered it better. She seemed to get right to the heart of the question which was about jobs. I'm guessing Obama's answer played well in Arizona and California, while Clinton's answer played well in, say, Tennessee and Oklahoma.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini AnburajanLooking at
Clinton and
Obama tackle taxes
together, I'm reminded of what many Democrats said waaaaaaay back in
the day in September and October when the race was still somewhat civil and many
spoke longingly of an Obama-Clinton or Clinton-Obama ticket. A far-flung wish that wouldn't make the choice between these candidates so
hard but one that will most probably remain a pipe dream....
From NBC's Mark MurrayThe moderators did Obama a big favor by giving him the first immigration question, which he used to bash the GOP over some of its anti-immigration views.
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones...that Obama just used in response to the tax-and-spend question is a common Hillary line too. NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli also points out that he heard Huckabee say the same line in September.
From NBC's Chuck ToddIs it helpful to the Democratic Party that CNN keeps cutting to celebrities?
From NBC's Mark Murray
Obama takes the first shot at McCain...on the issue of taxes and spending. "Somewhere along the line, the Straight Talk Express lost its wheels."
NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan adds that John McCain is a name that's been slippping off Obama's tongue with ease lately. He was featured in his major speech on electability yesterday, when Obama said he would be the best candidate to present a clear contrast with McCain. He mentioned him again this morning at a town hall in East LA when Obama said that along with McCain he fought for immigration reform. And now he's brought him up again at the debate...
And NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli notes... So just as Mitt Romney decides to go up on Feb. 5 after all, Barack Obama gives him a little free media with his attack on McCain on the Bush tax cuts.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro...but from the other angle. Obama went after McCain (wheels off the Straight Talk Express) for now saying he'd be for the Bush tax cuts when he voted against them the first two go rounds. The Romney campaign has also been hitting McCain on this, but from the angle that the tax cuts were a good thing. Obama argues that never before has the U.S. CUT taxes in a time of war.
From NBC's Chuck ToddBTW, the rules of this debate may favor Obama. He's never been good with time limits and tonight, there are no limits. Meanwhile, the setting may favor Clinton because both candidates are seated and Obama's height advantage isn't as great.
From NBC/NJ's Athena JonesConciliatory tone from both
Clinton and
Obama as this debate begins. All sweetness so far. Have to wonder which
candidate thinks showing anger will hurt them the most?
Also
interesting how Clinton compares her healthcare plan to Edwards'
openly...only now that he's out of the race. An attempt to win over his
supporters?
From NBC's Mark Murray
We just had our first Ted Kennedy mention by Obama...
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
Four in first eight minutes.
Each candidate talked about Edwards in each of their first two opportunities to talk.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroClinton and Obama's opening statements really highlight politics -- and why Americans find politics contradictory, not straightforward and sometimes illogical.
Obama talked about how Clinton and he were friends, are friends and will be friends after this is over. What do they say? Oh yeah... with friends like those...
I guess he chalks that up to what he called "a tough campaign."
With a smile, Clinton spoke nicely of both of them, even said she believes one of them will be the next president of the United States. But then in selling herself, she delivered this familiar subtle dig on Obama: that Americans should vote for someone who's ready on "Day One." So, in implying -- again -- that Obama is not ready on Day One, why then should any American vote for him? If he's not ready on Day One, why would she then believe that we should be looking at the next president between the two of them. Going further then, are none of the Republicans ready on Day One either? Is Hillary Clinton the only one who's ready on Day One?
Ah, politics.
From NBC's Chuck ToddWe're more than 20 minutes into the debate and neither campaign has sent a fact-check out to the press (unless my spam filter is working overtime).
From NBC's Chuck ToddSo how badly does Obama want John Edwards' endorsement? Obama's now name-dropped him twice in the first 15 minutes.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Their opening remarks summarized the themes of their campaigns: Obama wants to bring the country together; Clinton is ready from Day One and is a problem solver.
Asked their policy differences, Clinton mentioned health care, home mortgage policy, and talking with unsavory leaders (she is against meeting with those folks in her first year in office).
Obama parried those differences -- and brought up Iraq and eliminating the influence of lobbyists.
So, far everyone is on message.
From NBC's Chuck ToddSo far, it appears the two candidates want to be Mr. and Mrs. Nice Guy and Gal.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Doug Adams
The 200,000-member Transportation Workers Union will move from Edwards to Obama tomorrow, according to sources close to the union. The union would be the first national AFL-CIO union to endorse Obama. Is this the first of several former Edwards-backed unions to go to Obama now that Edwards has pulled out of the race?
The TWU represents New York City subway workers, Philadelphia bus drivers, Southwest Airlines flight attendants, baggage handlers and others. The largest union is in New York -- a Feb. 5 state -- and could play an active role there. In other Feb. 5 states, there are members in California and New Jersey.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
LOS ANGELES, Calif. -- Forget Camelot. The latest mantle that Obama is trying to claim as his own is former Sen. John Edwards' who left the race yesterday with a request to the two remaining candidates for the Democratic nomination to make poverty an issue in their campaigns.
Obama obliged, sounding positively Edwards-esque in a town hall at Los Angeles Trade Technical College, told the crowd that the system wasn't "designed for us."
"Too many people today feel like the system is not designed for people like us. They feel like the education system isn't designed for people like us, and the job market isn't designed for people like us," identifying himself with the predominantly Latino and African-American crowd and making a clear acknowledgment of racial disparities obtaining mortgages, health care and economic opportunities in the United States.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
LOS ANGELES, Ca. -- Just six days before much of the nation votes in a presidential primary, John McCain received yet another major endorsement that could help him in a delegate rich state. California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger made good on his hints from yesterday and threw his weight behind McCain this afternoon after taking a tour of Solar Integrated, a green technology company that builds solar roofing panels.
"[Green technology] will create a great, great future for California and for the United States and the world. Now talking about a great future, this is the very reason why I am endorsing Senator McCain to be the next president of the United States, because I'm interested in a great future and I think that Senator McCain has proven over and over again that he is reaching across the aisle in order to get things done," Schwarzenegger said.
McCain has been criticized for reaching across the aisle a little too far during his long senate career, damaging his conservative credentials and making it hard for him to find success with conservative voters in a virtual national presidential primary. Endorsements from moderate Republicans like Schwarzenegger and Rudy Giuliani don't help him combat this reputation, but at today's press conference he didn't seem concerned.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Ron Allen
Romney stopped by Greg and Charlene Bennett's home in Long Beach, Calif., to show he's concerned about middle class families. In the Q and A, he said McCain showed his lack of understanding about the economy in the debate in an answer to a question about housing that "included a stream of consciousness which took in the idea of punishing people on Wall Street and a town in Norway."
On the exchange over Iraq last night, "I think he took a big detour on the strait talk express," Romney said.
Does it call into question his credentials to be president? "No I think he's a fine man," Romney said.
On endorsements, Romney basically said, Rudy and Arnold aren't surprising -- they're moderates.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Andy Merten
As he continues to rack up high-profile Republican endorsements, John McCain today told reporters that Texas Gov. Rick Perry will endorse him this afternoon. The brief mention of Perry, who endorsed Giuliani in October, was prompted by a reporter’s question of whether backing by Rudy and Schwarzenegger -- both who are considered moderate on many social issues -- will truly aid McCain in courting Republican votes next Tuesday.
“I could never, never, ever be anything but honored by the presence of these two great American heroes,” said the Arizona senator in reply, quickly adding that Perry, who is much more conservative on issues like abortion and gay marriage, will be backing him.
Perry’s endorsement is likely a by-product of Rudy’s dropping out of the race and supporting McCain.
From NBC's Mark Murray
National Journal magazine is reporting that Obama was the most liberal senator of 2007, according to the vote ratings it does every year for members of Congress. Clinton, meanwhile, ranks as the 16th most-liberal senator.
But a bit of context here: National Journal used 99 Senate votes in 2007 as the basis for its rankings, and because he was on the presidential campaign trail, Obama missed a third of those votes. (According to the magazine, Obama voted the liberal way 65 out of 66 votes. Clinton, meanwhile, voted the liberal way in 77 out of her 82 votes).
National Journal's vote ratings became an issue in the 2004 general election, when Republicans used the magazine's ranking of John Kerry as the most liberal senator of 2003 to label the then-Democratic nominee as the "most liberal senator" -- even though that was his rating for just that one year, when (like Obama did) he missed quite a few Senate votes due to being on the presidential campaign trail.
As National Journal's editor wrote back then, "[O]ur magazine -- or, more precisely, our annual congressional vote ratings edition -- has become a Republican talking point in the 2004 presidential campaign. And that's been a fascinating, and disconcerting, experience. Fascinating because we're more used to being cited in congressional hearings than on the Today show. Disconcerting because the shorthand used to describe our ratings of Kerry and Edwards is sometimes misleading -- or just plain wrong."
Indeed, while Obama ranks as the magazine's most liberal senator of 2007, his ranking was 16th in 2005 and 10th in 2006.
Another question that might come up is why the magazine released its voting ratings now -- just days before Super Tuesday. In fact, the magazine says it full congressional ratings won't come out until March. But, according to the editor in a Q&A published in the magazine: "Back in December, we decided that we would publish the ratings of the presidential candidates as soon as they became available, rather than wait until our annual Vote Ratings issue on March 8. We thought it would be irresponsible to keep those scores under wraps during the height of the presidential primary season."
As for McCain, the magazine says that he didn't vote frequently enough in 2007 to get an overall rating. Per National Journal, "He missed more than half of the votes in both the economic and foreign-policy categories. On social issues, which include immigration, McCain received a conservative score of 59."
And like with Obama's overall liberal score, rivals and critics could possibly seize on McCain's social rating....
Full disclosure: This reporter worked and wrote for National Journal from 1997 to 2003.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
The Obama campaign announced that it has raised $32 million in the month of January and has 170,000 new donors to the campaign. In total, per campaign manager David Plouffe, the campaign now has 650,000 donors to the campaign.
Per Plouffe, the amount will allow the campaign to financially compete through March or April if needed. He also said their donors are part of a grassroots efforts making voter contact in the different states.
The Obama campaign will also be up on air in the primaries and caucuses on Saturday, Feb. 9th (Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington), the Maine caucuses on the 10th, as well as the Mid-Atlantic primary states on Feb. 12th (DC, Maryland, Virginia).
Plouffe said that the campaign is picking up Edwards supporters in Feb. 5 states, partly because, as he put it, "these are change voters." "We are first of all trying very hard to make the case to his supporters to join our campaign," he said. "And now that it's a two person race it's a definitive choice."
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** McCain plays hardball: There were a few moments where it appeared McCain and Romney would really start tangling in last night’s GOP debate -- but it was just that, a precious few moments. Romney wasn't happy about the criticism McCain leveled at him about timetables in Iraq. He said it was a dirty trick because it came days before Florida. Well, maybe so, but it should also serve as a comfort to nervous Republicans about McCain's ability to play hardball in the general. McCain may seem like a guy who likes to reach across the aisle, but he's not afraid to get dirty. McCain will be a very clever general-election candidate; it won't all be kumbaya with Clinton or Obama. Meanwhile, Romney's pushback -- if this was an issue, then why didn't he raise it earlier -- wasn't a great debate comeback moment. As we’ve noted before, Romney just doesn't come across well when he's angry. Overall, Romney seemed simply ticked off the entire night. It was as if he realized the end was near and he didn't know how to stop it. He tried to go after McCain, politely mind you, but didn't trip the newly crowned front-runner up.
 |
|
Video: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on how things seem to be coming together quickly for John McCain.
***
But he needs to brush up on domestic issues: Playing the role of front-runner at a debate for the first time (or at least since the last time these guys met at the Reagan Library), McCain proved to be more well spoken on domestic issues than he was at the last debate. But going forward, assuming he’s the GOP nominee, the Arizona Republican is going to have to get more comfortable talking about domestic issues or he will face much bigger problems in the general. He was better last night on the domestic front, but he's still got a ways to go. By the way, it shouldn't be overlooked at how McCain took every opportunity he could to take a dig at Romney; he seemed almost gleeful about it.
*** Winning the debate before it started: Perhaps the most difficult thing for many of us watching these debates for a living is that we're having a hard time finding new things to say -- just as the candidates are having a hard time saying anything new. For instance, how many times have we said some version of the following: Mike Huckabee probably stuck out a bit (and only a bit) for his humor and seemingly straight talk. Yet again, Huckabee got to play Mr. Nice Guy and it will probably be enough to siphon off conservative vote from Romney in order to deliver McCain a few more delegates than he should be winning if this were a pure one-on-one contest. (And on Morning Joe, Huck took this shot at Romney, saying he “didn’t hit puberty” in the conservative movement until he was 60. Whoa.) But McCain may have won the debate before it ever started, because the Giuliani endorsement yesterday and the Schwarzenegger endorsement today appear to be trumping anything that happened last night.
*** Time for a little one-on-one: Now it’s the Democrats’ turn to debate in California, and for the first time, there will be just two people on the stage: Clinton and Obama. The debate takes place at 8:00 pm ET. We’re betting that tonight’s debate is a bit more civilized than last week’s was. A few days after her loss in South Carolina, Clinton really appears to be playing Ms. Nice. On the trail yesterday, Clinton passed on chances to fire back at Obama. Also yesterday, her campaign held a conference call with reporters to stress how Clinton is eager to listen to voters’ voices -- like with their national town hall on the eve of Tsunami Tuesday -- while at the same time calling out Obama for being negative. And now even Bill has become subdued. It’s a dramatic shift from South Carolina.
*** Will these things come up at the debate? On Nightline last night, Clinton seemed to admit that her husband’s presidency was a co-presidency. It was a pretty striking admission. “MCFADDEN: Here's what a lot of people want to know. Can you control [Bill]? SEN. CLINTON: Oh, of course. … MCFADDEN: Newsweek magazine says flatly, if you're elected, it will be a co-presidency… Maybe it's a good idea? SEN. CLINTON: It’s not. I learned that. I learned that the hard way.” She learned that the hard way? Interestingly, at the time of course, the Clinton White House vigorously denied the idea of a co-presidency because it wasn't politically prudent. Now is history being rewritten a bit? Meanwhile, the dreaded "Van Natta" byline is in today's New York Times. It's an investigative piece, which suggests that Bill Clinton was used by a Canadian mining financier to help secure a contract in Kazakhstan. In exchange, Clinton raised a significant chunk of change from this guy for various philanthropic activities. No wonder the Clinton folks don't want these donors going public anytime soon. This is not a good story, but how much play will it get? We'll find out at tonight's debate.
*** Feb. 5th strategies: We're starting to learn about the diverging February 5 strategies through the candidates’ schedules. Suddenly, these schedule emails are the single most important thing we receive each day. For the next few days, for instance, we're finding out that Hillary Clinton is camping out in California, while Obama is barely spending 12 hours in the state. Meanwhile, it appears Bill Clinton will be stumping in more February 5 states than his wife will. Clinton travels to California for today’s debate and won’t leave the state until Saturday. By the way, Obama is getting some HUGE crowds. He got over 10,000 in both Denver and Phoenix.
*** Pointless money numbers: Today is the day the candidates have to file their 4th quarter FEC reports, and we'll find out how much the candidates raised and spent through December 31 which, frankly, seems more than a lifetime ago. For instance, how much of his own money did Romney spend after Dec. 31? We won't find out until April 15. How much did Clinton and Obama raise in the last month? Again, we won't find out until April 15… Today's fundraising numbers are something for the historians to pore over, not the on-the-news press corps right now.
*** On the trail: In addition to Clinton and Obama, everyone seems to be in California… A day after last night’s GOP debate, Huckabee makes two stops in the Golden State; McCain makes five, including three fundraisers and a taping of The Tonight Show; and Romney makes five, too. Among the surrogates, Bill Clinton stumps in Albuquerque, NM, and Tempe, AZ, while Ted Kennedy campaigns for Obama in Albuquerque and Santa Fe, NM
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 5 days
Countdown to Chesapeake Tuesday: 12 days
Countdown to Ohio and Texas: 33 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 278 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 355 days
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The Los Angeles Times: "John McCain and Mitt Romney carried their bitter Florida clash into California on Wednesday, each impugning the other's honesty in a hot-tempered debate as they sought to attract voters casting ballots in five days in a coast-to-coast array of primaries and caucuses… The tension between McCain and Romney, the two leading Republican candidates, was heightened because the two sat next to each other, uncomfortable and occasionally glaring, as the insults burst forth."
Doesn't this Washington Post headline basically say that McCain won the debate? Here's the header: "McCain vs. Romney on Iraq." The fact that the lead of the debate stories are on Iraq and not the economy plays right into McCain's hands.
“Ten Republican candidates met in the same venue nearly nine months ago for their first debate of the campaign and similarly laid claim to the Reagan legacy. Although four remained last night, the debate was dominated by the two front-runners.”
It's interesting that the two leading Dems are advertising like crazy in the Feb. 5 states, while the two leading Republicans are barely on air.
The Obama campaign holds a conference call with reporters at 9:30 am ET to discuss its February 5 strategy.
CALIFORNIA: The New York Times has a good preview of the importance of California. "Since the 1968 primaries -- won by Robert F. Kennedy and Richard M. Nixon -- California has been viewed by presidential aspirants as a microcosm of the country. From economic issues to trends in health care, immigration, urban infrastructure and education, the state has proved to be a great incubator for prescriptive policy and a test of the political winds. This year, with two other large states on Tuesday ostensibly spoken for by hometown favorites -- Illinois for Senator Barack Obama and New York for Senator Hillary Rodham -- California looms even larger for the Democrats."
More: The "candidates know the state, flush with delegates, cannot be easily discarded. But the vastness of California, the high cost of advertising here -- a statewide television buy can run over $2 million for a week -- and the sheer impossibility of traversing its myriad Congressional districts in a day, even with the help of chartered aircraft, have forced the candidates to keep their distance from here. For those who would be president, California is like an inaccessible love interest, stared at from across the country with both longing and frustration, its suitors aggrieved by their fumbling inability to connect."
MASSACHUSETTS: The Boston Globe: "As he tries to regain his footing after a tough loss in Florida's presidential primary, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney faces an unusual problem for a presidential hopeful: making sure he carries his home state." More: "The Massachusetts GOP's ambivalence about Romney has complex roots, with some ideological basis, especially because of shifts in his positions on stem cell research and abortion. When he was elected in 2002, he supported them, and by the end of his term, he was against them.
Remember, McCain won the state’s primary in 2000. This could be an embarrassing moment for Romney should he not win his home state by an impressive margin.
CLINTON: Here's a New York Times byline that has to scare the Clinton campaign: Don Van Natta Jr. His piece alleges a cozy relationship involving Bill Clinton may have been used by a Canadian mining financier to help secure a contract in Kazakhstan. The key graph: "Just months after the Kazakh pact was finalized, Mr. Clinton's charitable foundation received its own windfall: a $31.3 million donation from Mr. Giustra that had remained a secret until he acknowledged it last month. The gift, combined with Mr. Giustra's more recent and public pledge to give the William J. Clinton Foundation an additional $100 million, secured Mr. Giustra a place in Mr. Clinton's inner circle, an exclusive club of wealthy entrepreneurs in which friendship with the former president has its privileges.”
The campaign unveiled plans for a live web video-based town hall meeting on Feb. 4. From the campaign: "We believe it will be the first time in presidential campaign history that voters in the Super Tuesday states will have their voices heard in a single national town hall. The event, called ‘Voices Across America: A National Town Hall’ will be simulcast starting at 9 p.m. EST on hillaryclinton.com. The 22 cities where the campaign will host events are Birmingham, AL; Phoenix, AZ; Little Rock, AR; Los Angeles, CA; San Francisco, CA; Denver, CO; Hartford, CT; Wilmington, DE; Athens, GA; Boise, ID; Chicago, IL; Wichita, KS; Boston, MA; St. Paul, MN; Kansas City, MO; Cherry Hill, NJ; Albuquerque, NM; New York, NY; Grand Forks, ND; Tulsa, OK; Knoxville, TN; Salt Lake City, UT.
EDWARDS: The Boston Globe covers Edwards’ exit from the race. “Although his angry populism enthralled crowds, and he had at times seemed on the verge of catching fire, Edwards failed to win any of the early state contests and had been written off by most political observers weeks ago. He came in second in Iowa, narrowly beating Clinton, but his distant third-place finish Saturday in South Carolina, where he was born and where he won the 2004 primary, was crushing.”
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI: The former New York mayor “rarely seemed comfortable with the rigorous campaigning required in Iowa and New Hampshire. He avoided confrontations with his opponents and, after a damaging duel with Mitt Romney in November over their records on immigration, government finance, and crime, Giuliani all but withdrew from the fight.”
Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley went anti-New York on Giuliani and blamed "that New York personality” on his loss, the New York Daily News reports. "The New York lifestyle hasn't gone over [in] some places. It seemed like the more people got acquainted with him, the less they liked him," he said, adding, "Things you do in New York don't stay in New York." New Yorkers in the article fired back.
The big gets from Team Giuliani are his fundraisers. "The scramble for Mr. Giuliani's fund-raisers began shortly after the former candidate conceded the Florida primary to Mr. McCain. These fund-raisers also include such industry titans as Ken Langone, chairman of Invemed Associates LLC, Ambassador Richard J. Egan, financier Wilbur Ross, investor Carl Icahn and Paul Singer, general partner of Elliott Associates LP, a New York trading firm. All told, they have raised nearly $70 million for Mr. Giuliani, $6 million of which is earmarked for the general election. That money is likely to be designated for use by whoever becomes the Republican nominee.”
“Mr. Giuliani's donors may be as important to Mr. McCain as voters, since the new Republican front-runner has been struggling for cash for much of his campaign. Yesterday, Mr. McCain's campaign released his finance report for the fourth quarter of 2007 showing $4.5 million in debts."
CONTINUED >>
It appears to be 1996 all over again -- but in reverse. Just like the Democrats in the cycle after the 1994 GOP takeover of Congress, Republicans this year are struggling keeping members of both the House and Senate from retiring. The number of incumbent House Republicans retiring or resigning is now up to 28, almost guaranteeing that the Democrats not only won't lose control in '06 but also will likely add to their majority. The Senate GOP retirement number is already high, giving the Democrats a great chance to add at least two to five new senators to their majority.
In the '96 cycle, Democrats couldn't prevent a slew of Democrats who either survived '94 (in the House) or didn't think they'd win in '96 (in the Senate) because the poll numbers for the incumbent Democratic president were horribly low. Of course, Clinton came back and ended up winning re-election handily. But the hole the congressional Democratic retirees dug was so deep, the Democrats still lost Senate seats and couldn't win back enough House seats to win back control.
From NBC's Chuck ToddThere were a few moments where it appeared McCain and Romney would really started tangling in tonight's CNN/L.A. Times/Politico debate, but it was just that, a precious few moments.
Romney wasn't happy about the criticism McCain leveled at him about timetables in Iraq. He said it was a dirty trick because it came days before Florida. Well, maybe so, but it should also serve as a comfort to nervous Republicans about McCain's ability to play hardball in the general. McCain may seem like a guy who likes to reach across the aisle but he's not afraid to get dirty. McCain will be a very clever general election candidate; it won't all be kumbaya with Clinton or Obama.
Romney's pushback, btw, that if this was an issue, then why didn't he raise it earlier, wasn't a great debate comeback moment. As I've noted before, Romney just doesn't come across well when he's angry.
Overall, Romney seemed simply ticked off. It was as if he realized the end was near and he didn't know how to stop it. He tried to go after McCain, politely mind you, but didn't trip the newly crowned frontrunner up.
The question Romney must be asking himsel
