I can imagine everyone, including Van, will be polling right up to 5 P.M. local time tomorrow....

Isn't the Des Moines Register's last poll supposed to be the most accurate ?
Four years ago it picked the top finishers in the Demo race....

Sounds like sour grapes to me.....

Obama's lead of 7% was beyond the margin of error

Yeah pundits, Hillary is slip-sliding oh so very quickly... just look at the lack of polling numbers to see that evidence, eh?

Here's a question for someone who doesn't share the uselessness of my liberal arts degree. When you average polls together, does the margin of error get smaller or bigger? I would think smaller, but I've been confounded by statistics before.

The Des Moines Register poll has the nickname of the "Gold Standard" poll for a good reason! They have a sterling track record for getting the Iowa Caucus results right! So if they say Barack Obama is SEVEN points AHEAD - well outside the margin of error, I believe that Obama is going to win! Now they have Clinton and Edwards far behind, but neck and neck with each other. The DMR will probably be right in the order of finish - they usually are. So Hillary will most likely be second and Edwards third. But Obama is going to get a huge boost if he does win this, as it is looking will take place from this very reliable poll.

It's all going to be about who can get their supporters to the polls.

Does anyone know what time exactly these caucuses are going to take place? I keep hearing Thursday night - is there a set time for them to finish?

I wonder what time we'll get the results.

Give me a break...talk about stretching.  Different poll methodology, different time frames, different degree of accuracy in polling by the firms.  Some of them have never polled a caucus before and you lump them in with people who are experts or have experience.  Some are even tracking polls.

Having said that Edwards doesn't want his people to become down and not show up...however they should stop and realize that he couldn't pull it off last time (VP- he did not help John Kerry carry one southern state) what is going to make him any more electable this time.  

Paul...I had to laugh because I too am a liberal arts major.  But I did take a statistics course in college, and one thing I can say to your question is the margin of error does not reduce.

Looking the internals, the DesMoines Register poll suggests that only 55% of caucus goers will be Democrats.  That the other 45 % will be independents and 5% Republicans.  

That seems hard to believe.

If you go back to historical party breakdown, Edwards and Clinton do much much better.  

One very interesting statistic from this Des Moines Register poll is the DEMOGRAPHIC breakdown.

OBAMA draws more under 55 year olds - both men and women. (he draws the most from both groups under 55 - the 18-34 year olds as well as the 35-54 year olds.)

CLINTON draws the most over 55 year old women.

EDWARDS draws the most over 55 year old men.

And in 2004, 45% of caucus goers were first time caucus goers. The woman who conducted the poll in both years said the enthusiasm this year is much more evident on the Democratic side and amomg Independents who support Democrats than it was in 2004.  

The Des Moines Register poll was right for the 2004 caucuses.  It was wrong for the 2004 general election.

I am a little leary of their sample including 50% independents that plan to caucus.  History tells us that this just doesn't happen.

If Obama can get independents to the caucus at the 50% rate, then he wins.

JohnB, Des Moines, IA It's all going to be about who can get their supporters to the polls.
--------------------------------------------------

Exactly--and I would think that would be difficult to reflect in the polls. I'm sure you will do us proud, Iowa!

IOWA RUPUBLICAN MAYOR SWITCHES PARTY TO BACK OBAMA!!!!


EXCLUSIVE! Mayor Rickard to vote for Obama
BY GERSH KUNTZMAN
The Brooklyn Paper
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Brooklyn, Iowa, in the heartland between Dubuque and Des Moines, is known as "the community of flags." These photos were taken by The Brooklyn Paper staff during a visit in 2005.
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BROOKLYN, IOWA — The longtime Republican mayor of this tiny heartland town will stun his neighbors — and send shockwaves that will reach his countrymen in the real Brooklyn — when he breaks ranks with the GOP to vote for Sen. Barack Obama at the Iowa caucuses this Thursday night.
“After eight years of this administration, I’ve had it,” Mayor Loren Rickard told The Brooklyn Paper, which sent a reporter to Brooklyn, Iowa — population 1,200 — for the “first-in-the-nation” caucus.

“We’ve got a currency that’s practically worthless and a war without end,” he added. “I thought they were crazy to start the war with Iraq — and crazier that they didn’t even seem to have a plan to fight it.”

And Rickard said he’s not only dissatisfied with the president, but with his would-be successors.

“I’ve been a moderate Republican all my life and I simply don’t recognize these people [the GOP field],” he said. “Meanwhile, the Democrats have six solid candidates — though I think [Dennis] Kucinich is a bit out there.”

Rickard singled out Joe Biden and Obama for praise — but said he wouldn’t back Biden because “he can’t win.”

Few in the farming town in eastern Iowa know that their third-term Republican mayor will side with the Democrats on Thursday. And it might not have happened were it not for the efforts of Obama supporter, Bev Rens.

“I held a house party for Obama and [the mayor] came with his son, Joel,” said Rens, the Poweshiek County Democratic Party co-chair. “He listened to what I had to say and he pledged to vote for Obama that night. It sent a shiver through me!”

Rens said she also scored the mayor’s son, who was originally backing New York Sen. Hillary Clinton.

The Republican crossovers were no surprise to Brooklyn (Iowa) Chronicle Editor Sky Eilers.

“There are many Republicans in Iowa who feel that their party is in trouble in November, but they also don’t want to see Hillary be president, so they’re switching parties to back other Democrats,” said Eilers. “Hillary has had the biggest machine behind her here. Some people feel she’s buying her way through the process while Obama is appealing to the grassroots, which is what you have here in Brooklyn.”


Eilers didn’t think Rickard’s betrayal of party would send a shockwave through the town.

“Shockwave? In Brooklyn [Iowa]? I don’t think so,” Eilers said.

But he did think many eyes would be following Rickard as he entered the Democratic, rather than Republican, caucus.

“He is very well respected here, so people will certainly talk about it,” he said.

Under Iowa election law, registered voters can switch their party affiliation on caucus night, which Rickard said he would do by signing in as a Democrat at Thursday’s gathering at the Brooklyn-Guernsey-Malcolm elementary school.

Despite the excitement over the presidential election, the caucus process in Brooklyn is subdued, Rens said. In some years, only a handful of Democrats and Republicans have gathered, she said.

“I started in 1988 and was caucusing for Jesse Jackson,” she said. “There was six or seven people there, total.”

But this year, turnout is expected to be high at both party caucuses. The Republicans will gather at 6:30 pm and begin with a straw poll of all voters in attendance, while Democrats start a half-hour later — and dig in for an arduous process.

First, supporters of each candidate get to make a presentation, hoping to sway the undecided. Then, a vote is taken. Candidates who receive 15 percent or more are considered “viable,” and move forward to a second round of voting. Supporters of “non-viable” candidates can shift their allegiance to one of the viable candidates or form alliances with supporters of other “non-viable” candidates before the second round.

This is big, and fantastic news for the general election!!!!

Unmentioned in the discussion of the DMR poll:

These are the trends for the last three polls:
Obama   22-28-32
Clinton 29-25-25
Edwards 23-23-24

You can see that between Oct and now
Obama is rising from 22 to 32
Hillary is deflating from 29 to 25
Edwards is holding steady 23 to 24

This may explain a lot of the reactions to the polls
Obama's support is growing and Hillary's is fading

See ?
Iowa has a happy ending !!

CAUTION  HUCKABEE VOTERS CAUSE AN EARTHQUAKE GOING TO POLLS.  ROMMNEY NEEDS TO KNOW RIGHT IS RIGHT,AND WRONG IS WRONG, AND RIGHT WILL ALWAYS WIN, HIS LIES WON'T WIN NEITHER WILL CLINTON'S.

Any statistician will tell you that averaging these different polls with different methodologies is utterly useless.  But it doesn't matter anyway, since the only poll that matters is tomorrow night.  Good luck to Obama (who I think will win) but I'll take Edwards as my second choice.
Obama '08

Joe- Kerry never spent a dime in NC. You should read this article http://www.news-record.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080102/NRSTAFF/222921738. This 2008, not 2004. Bush and CO. have had four more years since then to ruin this country. It will be different this time.

Clinton is ready on day ONE!!

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/01/02/biden-highlights-clinton-pakistan-gaffe/#comments

to learn the basics of foreign government... and catch up on current events.

"Experience"?

Response:

<<Isn't the Des Moines Register's last poll supposed to be the most accurate ?
Four years ago it picked the top finishers in the Demo race....

Sounds like sour grapes to me.....

Obama's lead of 7% was beyond the margin of error

Sierra, SF (Sent Wednesday, January 02, 2008 10:43 AM)>>

It has nothing to do with sour grapes - it has to do with facts - if you were to read the Wash Post, NY Times AND, the DMR you would find that they decided to change their polling method this time around DOUBLING the anticipated independents involved.  Had they kept the polling model as they have used in all previous elections the results are:

Clinton - Obama - Edwards all bunched at the top.

Pick and choose whatever poll suits your fancy - the only numbers that count will be tomorrow night!

HILLARY '08

Rickert has NO CLUE!  He "believes" there is political mileage to be made from joining the Obama camp!  There's nothing there for him; it will not make a difference just like all of the hype from Oprah!

Western Iowa will favor Hilliary (50%), Edwards (35%), and Obama (15%); the DMR has been wrong more often than they've been correct.

The polling reflects what Iowans have been saying for quite a long time now - Hillary, Edwards, and Obama!  

Here's a question for someone who doesn't share the uselessness of my liberal arts degree.

Paul,  I have many, many friends who have those things.

I think I am doing better without one myself.

It has nothing to do with sour grapes - it has to do with facts - if you were to read the Wash Post, NY Times AND, the DMR you would find that they decided to change their polling method this time around DOUBLING the anticipated independents involved.  Had they kept the polling model as they have used in all previous elections the results are:

Clinton - Obama - Edwards all bunched at the top.

LOL....
Spoken like a true New Yorker....

"I wonder what time we'll get the results.
Pat, Boston, MA (Sent Wednesday, January 02, 2008 11:03 AM)"  Good question.  If history is any indication a lot of the results should be in by 10pm CST.  Technically the caucus isn't finished until all of the business of the night finishes, most of which involves finding volunteers for various posts and committees, rules issues, and a lot of other minutae.  Caucusing for candidates happens early in the evening, however.  I'm not exactly sure what happens then, but I think the results are called in to county or state party headquarters just after that portion of the meeting concludes for delegate tabulation.  The doors are closed during this part of the meeting so no one can bring in outside information to color the proceedings and because you have to know how many are present to calculate percentages.  You can leave, however.  Last time I saw a Kucinich supporter storm out in a huff because he was the only one for his candidate at our site and he refused to move to a "viable" group.

Listen to you all.  You sound so ridiculous.  The trend over the past month is Obama rising, Edwards, holding steady, and Clinton dropping.  Independents are flocking to Obama in droves because there is no enthusiasm on the GOP side.  Obama will pull out a margin above 40%.  Edwards, will come in 2nd, and Biden 3rd, with Clinton a close 4th.

As a Clinton supporter I actually wish she lose Iowa. With all due respect to Iowans, they are famous for choosing losers since Jimmy Carter. The only Democratic candidate won Iowa and then won GE is Bill Clinton in 1996, go figure...

i'm curious. to those who are questioning the dmr poll. in the last year i didn't see a single post questioning the methodology when it favored certain candidates.

all year experts have been saying that more independents than ever before will take part in the iowa caucus and national election. it has also been said repeatedly that some republicans would cross lines to certain democratic candidates.

it was pointed out by political strategists and scholars that no poll had reflected those demographics. now a poll has.

this poll reflects democratic, independent, republican and first time caucus goer's.

the question is this, NOW THAT SOMEONE HAS INCLUDED THESE VOTER'S THAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT FIRST AS STATED BY THE EXPERTS, WHY WOULD YOU DISCOUNT THIS POLL NOW?

by the way the dmr didn't just get it right in 2004. the dmr got it right in 2000 as well.

just curious as to the rationalization not to accept the dmr's polling process this time when it actually has been thorough enough to include all participants instead of just party affiliates.

independents count to you know. we have been saying for a long time where the majority of our support will likely land. can anyone answer the question, please?  

by the way, i am an independent. we talk a lot among independents. i think some of you aregoing to be suprise by the turnout of independents. also, there are many independemts that are former republicans and democrats. it shouldn't be suprising that republicans would cross the lines to vote for a democrat. we want our country to be healed. we don't want anymore fighting along party lines. we want a leader that will unite the congress to get america on track.

ace (Sent Wednesday, January 02, 2008 2:05 PM)

The potential problem with the DMR poll is that it assumes a disproportionate share of caucus-goers will be independents.  It also assumes a disproportionate share of caucus-goers will be first timers.  Maybe it will end up that way...and maybe it won't.  There is no way to be certain one way or the other at this point.

Historically, the most reliable indicator of caucus attendance is past attendance.  That doesn't mean these people will not go; it just means that it may not be all that reliable to count on them to go.  

As a Clinton supporter I actually wish she lose Iowa. With all due respect to Iowans, they are famous for choosing losers since Jimmy Carter. The only Democratic candidate won Iowa and then won GE is Bill Clinton in 1996, go figure...
Ana (Sent Wednesday, January 02, 2008 1:54 PM
----------------------------------
Good point Ana..I declare Obama the winner!
lol  You can bet the winner will be subjected to just
those facts alone.

Ace if you want a president that can get along with congress vote for the congressmen in the party of your candidate.
Since Newt Gingrich and his so called "Contract for America what used to be the loyal opposition has become the enemy across the aisle. We need a large enough majority in both houses to break the current gridlock in congress.

Can't say that i can blame Hillary supporter's for asking anyone that will listen, Look at the Averages.It is because, since she started campaigning, All of us heard Nothing but, National poll this, National poll that. She has Triple, Double, Quadruple leads all across the Nation, look at them now, Averages, they say. Laughable at best!!
As for John Edwards, he has stayed the same since December-2004 ( after the last election), in the mid twenties. Need i say anymore, Nope.
Barack has steadily moved up in the Polls as it becomes Apparant, that He is the best Candidate.

The fact is that the only thing anyone knows with any kind of relative certainty is that Obama, Edwards, and Clinton will finish as the top 3. Anything else is just hot air up our collective skirt.

Rick,
From my section of the state, it is the Obama Camp who have been "begging" folks to listen; the reception has been polite and cordial.  Discussing with others who attend ONE of these group-functions, the consensus was "Nice man; however, I can vote for him!"

Iowans are a savvy group; they do not respond to people making claims they are unable to deliver.  Obama and Edwards are far too similar in words, actions and accomplishments.  They deliver a fine "stump speech" for oratory sake; however, there's nothing else!  EMPTY PROMISES - think Jimmy Carter!

Rick,ky (Sent Wednesday, January 02, 2008 3:47 PM)

This is directly from an email from the Obama campaign I received this afternoon:

"At the same time, volunteers spent their New Year's Day knocking on 50,000 doors in the bitter cold. "

I guess Obama is asking anyone that will listen as well.

Barack's message from the Beginning has been constant & unwavering, " CHANGE WE CAN BELEIVE IN".As his message started resonating with the Voter's, other's in the camapign slowly started to coincidently change(pun) there message to mimick his camapign.Adults playing the game we played as kids, FOLLOW THE LEADER.The one thing that has'nt been said YET is, " I agree with Barack"

BARACK OBAMA, THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.

hey carrie, i hear what you are saying. the one thing the media is not saying is this. the dmr rep was on t.v. today, she said they scaled back to include only democratic voters as well and obama still won. she also said they scaled back to the 2004 methodology and obama still won.

i am not a believer in polls. i have been around for a few elections. i was curious as to the thinking of some here for one reason. i have seen folks here trump that a poll picked their candidate. then comes this poll and it causes so much discredit. these same folks were saying glory to the dmr when it endorsed hillary.

i wanted to exact an understanding of thinking. that's all. i am down to two candidates. i am watching closely. after the iowa caucus i am going to make my decision. i am in the d.c., maryland, va. area so i have a little more time than you had.

anyway, i think the democrats offer a better selection than the republicans. i point out that ron paul is actually a libertarian. however, in 1992 ron paul made some inflammatory remarks about blacks that concern me.

however, i am glad we are in america where we are free to vote. thank god we are not in pakistan, russia, china, north korea or iran.

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