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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Obama’s closing ad

Posted: Wednesday, January 02, 2008 2:36 PM by Domenico Montanaro

From NBC’s Lauren Appelbaum and Domenico Montanaro
We have noted that Both Clinton and Obama have bought two minutes of airtime for their closing ads during tonight's local newscasts in Iowa and that Edwards has bought 60 seconds. We have seen links of both Clinton’s and Edwards’ and have posted on First Read. The Obama campaign is not releasing the ad before it airs, but First Read has obtained a copy.

Obama, wearing a dark suit and speaking in front of a dark background, stresses a sense of urgency, telling caucus-goers to ask, “[W]ho can take us in a fundamentally new direction? I'm running to finally solve problems we talk about year after year after year to end the division, obscene influence of lobbyists, and the politics that values scoring points over making progress.

“We can't afford more of that. Not this year. Not now. I've spent my life working for change that has made a real difference in the lives of real people.”

He then touts his biography -- that he “passed up a job on Wall Street -- to fight joblessness and poverty on the streets of Chicago when the local steel plant closed.” He also points to legislative achievements and that he is “not a perfect man. And I won't be a perfect president. But I can promise you this. I will always tell you where I stand and what I think. I will listen to you when we disagree.”

He closes with, “I will carry your voices to the White House and I will fight for you every day I am there. So I ask you to caucus tomorrow. Not just for me but for your hopes, for your dreams, for the America you believe is possible.”

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Bob Novack has also picked Obama to win
More hopemongering from Obama.

Dickie Flatts, Charlotte, NC (Sent Wednesday, January 02, 2008 3:42 PM)

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And more desperate gum-flapping and hot air from the Clinton people. You all should get jobs filling up balloons at carnivals with that much hot air.
Pundits who have seen Hillary's ad scheduled to air tonight in IA are saying it is very effective- You go Girl!
dikiey . that was your best post yet . hopemongering . i like it . coin that one for me. lmao
To those looking for details plans and speeches:
Read 'The Audacity of Hope' which gives you an insight to his belief on various topics.

click
http://obama.senate.gov/

LEARN/ISSUES
http://www.barackobama.com/index.php


http://www.barackobama.com/factcheck/category/
I work with a bunch of relatively well-to-do Republicans (who voted for Bush in 2004, I fought with them constantly).  To a one, they will not vote for Hillary but are all interested in Obama.  What does that mean?  I don't know; I can't say they will definitely vote for him in November.  But I do know that they are disgusted with Bush and the war and will give Barack an honest look.  Barack has the potential to really unite this country.  He seems to speak a language that transcends the political divide.  His honesty, his authenticity, seems to touch people in a way that I have not seen since JFK (and I have to admit, Reagan).  Barack will win in Iowa tomorrow night with the support of independents and Republicans in the same way that he will win the presidency in November.  For the first time in many years I am truly hopeful for this country.
Obama '08
History will be made tomorrow people. Fired up...ready to go. Obama 08.
I just read a piece in the Huffington Post.  It stated they have been told by staffers in the Dodd, Bidden and Richardson camp that they should go with Obama as their number two selection if they do not get to viability.  If this is true Obama will do even better than expected bicking up all the number two selections.  Edwards has not spoke up, but mst of his voters want change and dislike Hillary.

Nadeem in Canada, this may be true of Richardson and Biden, but I watched MSNBC this afternoon and Andrea Mitchell was interviewing Chris Dodd who was adamant about NOT doing that, he said he felt he had no right to tell the citizens of Iowa how to vote, and they they wouldn't like it either, that they would rather make up their own minds and not be told what to do.

Obama is no JFK, and Michelle Obama is no Jackie.
Tareli, Bill is no Jackie, either.lololololol
In terms of electability in November, Obama has a huge advantage over Hillary. In theory, she would probably be a decent president, but she is far too polarizing to ever win a general election. If Hillary is having this much trouble against her Democratic opponents, it does not bode well for her fortunes in an election where she will facing a huge smear campaign that Republicans are itching to unload on her if she's on the ballot. It's fascinating how the Republican candidates love to mention Hillary as a way of turning out voters but they will seldom speak Obama's name. You could argue that she's more of a lightning rod than abortion or gay marriage.

For a party that is having difficulty mobilizing their base, the GOP's job would become much easier if Hillary were the Democratic nominee. Even if the pro-life "family values" Christian voters have reservations about the Republican nominee (whoever it may be), they would show up in droves just to vote against her. However, if Obama is on the ballot in November, many of the anti-Hillary conservatives will simply stay home and complain about what the world is coming to. Many Democratic voters are either unaware of this or they are so loyal to Clinton that they turn a blind eye to her general election weaknesses.

Anyone whose had any exposure to conservative political circles knows that a huge chunk of the country has hated Hillary for decades and they always will regardless of what she has done or said since her husband left office. Obama has far less baggage and GOP smear campaign fodder. Some Christian conservatives are genuinely intrigued by him because he seems more authentic and coherent when talking about his faith as opposed to Hillary who sounds mechanical and pre-programmed whenever she tries to discuss anything related to religion.

The GOP candidates won't admit it, but they strongly prefer to run against Hillary. She's an easy target and their best hope to keep the White House in Republican hands until 2012. You'll have a hard time finding any religious conservative over 35 who could be persuaded vote for Hillary. However, many of them have still not made up their minds about Obama which opens up the possibility for him to win their support in a long election season.

Bottom line: Clinton could still get the nomination, but she can't win in November. Obama's biggest challenge is beating Hillary in the primaries, but if he does, Obama has the chance to unite the country in favor of true change and win the general election comfortably.
JFK was a bumbling idiot-remember the Bay of Pigs and--oh yea- he was assassinated before his first term was over!!!!! Obama the next JFK--good thinking.  GO HILLARY the only candidate I can see who can take America back.
Democrats -

I just have this "feeling" that tomorrow is going to be the turning point. I think Obama is going to win BIG! And I think he will carry NH easily. With that scenario, I think it is less and less likely that the Clintons can pull out enough wins for her to get the nomination. I won't say it's impossible - but just very, very unlikely.

I think Obama WILL get the nomination, and I think he WILL be elected in November. The Clintons will probably not give him much help, but he'll have enough other Democratic backing that he'll beat the GOP with lots of Independents and quite a few Republicans joining in.

This Obama campaign is quickly morphing into a MOVEMENT - and one that can't be stopped!

Can't wait for tomorrow night!!
Bambi Obama talk about all the lobbyist he has empoyed in his closing ad?

Just curious
Bob Novak is rarely wrong on these things.

If he thinks Obama will win, he most likely will.

As an Obama fan and avid supporter, this is great news!  
It's coming! It's almost here! The formal end of an era is almost upon us! Bush - Clinton - Bush - .....no, we won't be filling in the name Clinton after tomorrow night's win by Obama!! The new era is about to begin! The Obama era! Yeah!! I'm so excited!!
I am a middle-aged white woman who has not been this excited about a campaign in years! I am really believing that this is turning into a true opportunity to accomplish genuine change in this country.

I hope Barack Obama is our nominee. He strikes me as the "Real Thing." I have listened to his speeches on C-SPAN. I've read his books. He is a very impressive man. A man who, I think, is able and ready to pull this country together - old and young, all demographic groups - to work for the common good of all of us.

I think each generation has the chance to choose a great leader. This is our time. Barack Obama is that leader.
Scott, you are either works for Republicans or represent them. We are NOT listen to you. Give it up. You don't even know how to cheat, so learn from Obama. He just hired a registered lobbyist, sounds unbelievable ? Well, believe it.

Every one BUT oBAMA !
C Cole, so do you think JFK got what he deserved? If a man who works tirelessly to bring America together gets assasinated by one of its own citizens, it tells you that the problem is with the citizens, NOT the president!

But I guess you also think Abe Lincoln was stirring up too much trouble for his own good, huh?
Daniel, I think democrats know this but for some reason they want to cling to the Clintons for reasons that truly befuddle me. Maybe they've forgotten how to win or what it takes to win a general election....
Though I'm a Bill Clinton follower, after following every minute of the 08 race, am delighted at the novelty, use of un-cconventional media, grassroots focus and results generated especially by Barack, a heretofore "minnow" Go Obama...be the David of 08 on the Goliath of gone-by  decades. Fired up, ready to go!!!
I am life long democrat and so is my family and we agree we would never vote for Obama. His speeches sound like he is in church. Gives only general speeches no substances. And his wife really gets on our nerves with her I won;t let him run again if we don't win because we will be out of touch with Americans. What is she only going to associate with Oprah for the next 8 yrs. Any democrat besides him.
Obama's ad works for me. I'm caucusing for Obama tomorrow.  Fired up and ready to go!
HOW does he plan on doing all of this??? Now he's even stealing Hillary's line: " I've spent my life working for change"....can he be more unoriginal? What exactly are his plans for implementing all of this so-called change? What is the new direction? HOW will solve all the problems facing our country? HOW does he plan on fighting every day? He has yet to explain ANY of these empty promises! He thinks just by spouting these talking points he can get enough people to believe it...wake up before it's too late...Hillary '08!!!

Cathy, Upstate NY (Sent Wednesday, January 02, 2008 3:24 PM)
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Cathy with all due humble respect... Are U serious?
Everybody but U knows that the first candidate to talk about change in this campaign, was Obama back in '06... At that time Hillary was talking about inevitability and experience...!
If U are true to Urself, U'll see that all the copying is comming from the Hillary campaign...

Obama '08
Obama / Biden 2008

The President with the dignity and integrity we deserve and the VP who will say what needs to be said in the most colorful and entertaining way possible.  I think it's a winning combination.  Besides where Obama lacks in foriegn policy experience Biden can pick up the slack!


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