That Democratic turnout

Posted: Thursday, January 03, 2008 9:57 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: Democrats

From MSNBC's David Shuster
165,000 in so far. Based on precincts still to report (urban areas), the total will be 185,000 to 200,000.... A tidal wave on Dem side compared with 125,000 from 2004.

*** UPDATE *** From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The Iowa Democratic party says, "With 93.5 percent of the precincts reporting we are seeing record turnout with 218,000 caucus attendees."

EMAIL THIS

Comments

Regardless of what happens in NH or elsewhere, the black vote is pretty much locked up till March 2008.

isaid so (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 10:05 PM)

This is the biggest 'Great Iowa Wrestle-Off', in a long time.

Steve Turner Cedar Falls Iowa (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 10:15 PM)

I just don't believe Obama has the experience to lead this country in the right direction. I don't think he can win I know beyond a doubt my vote is still for Hillary

April Hesperia Ca. (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 10:16 PM)

Our country made two Big mistakes, one in 2000 and one in 2004 by electing Bush. Howard Dean or John Edwards should have been the nominee in 2004. It will be another Big mistake if Democrats do not nominate Sen. Joe Biden, most qualified, or John Edwards, the man who will stop corporate corruption. We know Iowa does not predict the nominee. I'm just hoping America wakes up before it's too late, Again!

Biden4President, Edwards4President, Tampa FL (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 10:17 PM)

Boy, no second tier for the Dems. The first three get 97%. Some pretty serious guys, Biden and Dodd, get a used Snickers wrapper. Even when Pakistan reminds people that there is something to be said for some experience. Wild. Superstar politix.

George Sears, Cedar City, Utah (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 10:18 PM)

I agree with George!

Biden4President, Edwards4President, Tampa FL (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 10:21 PM)

This is the real story in Iowa.

Jane Doe (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 10:21 PM)

Can someone explain the numbers showing in the Dem tallies? Is each precinct allotted a certain number and the individual voters are apportioned? Because the network is showing about 900 for Obama and 700 or so each for Edwards and Clinton and that doesn't make sense.

mm, Richmond, VA (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 10:23 PM)

What a LAME SPEECH by Hillary

It was a 'non concession'
Of course you're going to continue campaigning...
Of course you have a strong chance to win ....

Not even a congratulation for Obama ?
Not even an acknowledgement for his victory ?
Not even a mention ?

What a sore loser !!
A sore loser is a LOSER !!

Sierra,SF (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 10:36 PM)

The last time Iowa Caucuses picked a winner in November was Jimmy Carter. Basically..what happens in Iowa stays in Iowa. Go Hillary; your the only Democrat that is electable.

Lynda R, Washington, DC (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 10:37 PM)

I am curious also. Hopefully the numbers represent
thousands. However, my vote is still for Hillary. She
far more experience.

GB Randolph NJ (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 10:37 PM)

Dodd is dropping out !!

Just in from CNN

Who will he endorse ?
When will he endorse ?
Not before NH...

Who's next to drop out ?

Sierra,SF (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 10:37 PM)

I believe the smaller numbers represent the individual caucus precincts. Could somebody on First Read make a post about this?

Peter, San Francisco, CA (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 10:40 PM)

I'm not sure, but I think the Numbers on the Democratic side represent precincts not votes. The numbers on the Republican side represent votes.

Biden4President, Edwards4President, Tampa FL (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 10:41 PM)

Sorry, Isaidso, but not all blacks are voting for Obama
and I know I'm not alone.

GB Randolph NJ (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 10:41 PM)

This was the largest turnout in Iowa caucus history for the Dems. 210,000. And Obama won both among men and women...........

Ivan, Dover,DE (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 10:41 PM)

George Sears, Cedar City, Utah, Biden4President,

This was an election about change
Washington hasn't been doing a very good job, lately
Time for some new blood
Time for some new ideas

Time for someone who opposed the Iraq war

Sierra,SF (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 10:42 PM)

I'm happy Obama won he has the drive, and the ability of a leader, not to mention his views, and thats what we need in a president, someone who is willing to lead, if we have a president that no one will listen too then our country can't move forward no matter what happens, and the thing about Obama is when he talks people actually listen, i hope this means that we will have him running for president.

lindale, tx (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 10:46 PM)

Dodd to endorse Obama. Hilary had my vote in the beginning, but the games she and her camp plays will end up being the games she plays with us Americans. Go OBAMA!

Stacey, Charlotte, NC (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 10:47 PM)

April Hesperia Ca.: '...I just don't believe Obama has the experience to lead this country in the right direction. I don't think he can win I know beyond a doubt my vote is still for Hillary...'

Sorry but not all knowledge resides in Washington insiders

Abraham Lincoln
Woodrow Wilson
Franklin D Roosevelt (FDR)
Jimmy Carter
Ronald Reagan
Bill Clinton

They weren't Washington insiders
Would you have prevented them from running for President ?

Whay was Bill qualified and not Obama ?
What 'experience' did Bill have ?

There is life outside of Washington
There is wisdon outside Washington
There is hope outside Washington

Sierra,SF (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 10:48 PM)

Biden, Dodd and McCain have experience. Hilary does not, not in any meaningful sense. What Obama has going for him is the conviction of many people, including me, that he can break the logjam in Washington and unite people in a way that no other candidate (except possibly McCain) can. I wasn't old enough to vote in 1960, but Obama reminds me of JFK. Go Obama.

Bill for Obama, New City, NY (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 10:48 PM)

Peter, San Francisco, CA, i think 57 is the number of convention delegates

I;m not sure what the other numbers are
But, I think Iowa gets 57 delegates

Carrie, where are you ?

Sierra,SF (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 10:50 PM)

The caucus system is so stupid. Richardson had about 14% of our precinct yet goes away with nothing. The republicans can teach us a thing or two about counting votes.

Ken, Cedar rapids Iowa (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 10:54 PM)

Hillary is the only democrat that can possibly win-so wake up and choose the best choice for our party or we will be stuck with a republican for the next 4 to 8 yrs.

mimi Dixon Charlotte,N.C. (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 11:04 PM)

Each preceint is one vote. They all go into a room and stand in different areas according to who they want to vote for. After this is done if anyone is supporting a candidate that has less than 15% of the vote must go to another candidate. So voters can change their minds. I have never understood why such an importance is put on Iowa. Nothing is decided yet.

Mike B St. Louis Mo (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 11:04 PM)

Lynda R, Washington, DC: '...The last time Iowa Caucuses picked a winner in November was Jimmy Carter. Basically..what happens in Iowa stays in Iowa. Go Hillary; your the only Democrat that is electable....'

If Hillary is so 'electable', why did she lose ?
Obama even beat her among women:
Obama 35% of women
Clinton 30% of women
Edwards 23% of women

So how is Hillary 'electable' ?
She's too divisive
She would unite the Republicans
Obama and Edwards are both more electable than Hillary

Biden, Richardson and Dodd are all more 'experienced' than Hillary

It's not over 'til it's over......
She might still win

PS
The numbers on the Democratic side are State Delegates
A lot more than the 57 national delegates

Sierra,SF (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 11:12 PM)

Ken,
The GOP counted REAL well in Florida...and again in Ohio didn't they.

I pull for Edwards, but if he doesn't get there then Go Obama or Roll O'tide. I feel electing Hillary is electing for NO change in DC. She may as well be a Republican.

glenn (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 11:13 PM)

Biden has great ideas and a viable plan for getting out of Iraq. To bad he didn't have the money to spend to get his ideas out to more voters.

John S. Neola, IA (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 11:14 PM)

Sierra you must not have seen Senator Clinton's speech because she did in fact congratulate Senator Obama, Senator Edwards, and thanked Biden, Dodd, Richardson, and Kucinich.
On the other hand, I just listened to Obama's victory speech and he did not congratulate or even acknowledge his running mates at all.
All he is doing is talking about how wonderful he is. What an ego!

Tareli, Fuquay Varina NC (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 11:17 PM)

Never one to tell anyone "I told you so."

BUT

I called (3 days in advance and tonight) both the Republican and Democratic top three in order here on First Read and I predicted a Democratic turnout of 150,000 + earlier this week.

All I can say to the folks who were mesmerized by the commercial polls and those who piddled with their Palm Pilots up to the last minute...

33, 28, and 23. Those (or some other ridiculous numbers) were "predicted" by one of our more colorful bean counters... without telling us who would win, place, or show.

In other words, a total discrediting of the Poll Poopers. Dare they show their smirks here again... probably.

Now that the pinball wizard has been unmasked... it is time to go back to Kansas and see Auntie Em.

Go Obama!

Pass the Cristal...

Mark Thieme (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 11:20 PM)

Iowa gets 45 delegates to the national convention.

Ken Cedar rapids Iowa (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 11:22 PM)

I do not see the great importance of Iowa caucus. Bill Clinton did not even go to Iowa. Reagan did not win in Iowa. I feel that caucuses are not really very accurate. Seems like the accountability is not there to prevent fraud. The primaries seem a little more structured and concrete and more accessible to a larger majority of voters. At any rate...I have always been a devout Democrat and would love to see a Democrat win in 2008, but i honestly do not believe that person to be Obama, and quite frankly if, by some chance he wins the nomination, I may vote for the other side for the first time in 40 years.

Cathy A Kenton, OH (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 11:22 PM)

I am thrilled Obama came in first. He truly offers us a new promise for tomorrow. Another Clinton presidency......been there, done that. And for those you believe Obama can not win the election, please check the recent gallop polls. Obama is just as electable (in some cases more electable) against all the Republicans as Hilary. And don't forget - he should pull a lot of votes from the South.

Ruth, Seabrook, NH (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 11:24 PM)

Congratulations to Iowa voters for doing your civic duty and going to the caucus. You set records on the Democratic side, and I hope the lesson resonates across the nation.

Obama gave an excellent speech, while I would still prefer Biden, will not hesitate to vote for Obama if given the chance.

ll Minneapolis Mn (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 11:30 PM)

I don't know but the outcome seems to me like some "protest" vote from both sides.
Basically people are going to the caucuses to reject all the shame our country has been through since we won the cold war on the late 80's. Since then, white house occupant after white house occupant has dilapidated our country to the point that we lost our military mighty, we lost our economic power (Chinese Federal Reserve officers are dictating our economy policies now, read the news today) and the worse we lost our self respect and the respect of the world as we are trashing our own liberties and our constitution because of the paranoia of half-dozen of corrupt leaders that got to DC on a wave of electoral fraud (I still smell the ballots burning here in Florida...). So, today's outcome seems more like a way of our agonizing democracy to "protest"...

John S, Pensacola, Fla (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 11:35 PM)

jerry from corpis christi your wish came true, hilliary lost.What has you packing your bags should be a more liberal democratic party womping the puckers 2 tp 1

kenn (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 11:39 PM)

Lots of Dems had time on their hands. The next big pig slaughter isn't for two weeks.

Mentol Smith (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 11:40 PM)

Unfortunate for you the capitol is in washington and thats is where we agreed to run things from.Even billy Carter became an insider.

krnn (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 11:42 PM)

Hillary will regroup and come back stronger to win in New Hampshire, plus there is a debate before the primary and the debates are where she really shines.

Now that Obama has won Iowa people are really going to start looking at him, and also scrutinizing and questioning, and that might not be such a good thing for him when people start questioning exactly what has he done, how is exactly is he going to bring about change, and does he have the experience to do it.

Iowa only has 45 delegates which is nothing. What happens in Iowa stays in Iowa.

Tareli, Fuquay Varina NC (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 11:45 PM)

If I was going to interview someone for a job, I'd sure as heck take experience into consideration. The two most experienced people have now dropped out of the race. On what Democrats and Republicans alike feel is a "foreign policy election", this is huge. A message to Democrats who always seem to vote from their hearts: Everything can't be based on hopes and dreams, they're important, don't get me wrong, but if you don't have a foundation in experience, those hopes and dreams will never come to fruition.
Just voted in the Iowa Caucas. We ended up with a viable uncommitted group and we would have sent a delegate in for Joe Biden, if he could have stayed in the race. Too bad this campaign is all about money and not the best man for the job.

bwc Solon, Iowa (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 11:47 PM)

April (& all others still playing the "experience" card):

Experience in a broken system is itself broken.

Iowans were smart enough to realize this and they rebuked (on both sides of the aisle) the old game of spin politics.

Cheers to Iowa. You saw through the noise of the machine and made a courageous and brilliant decision. On both sides, you sent America a new day. We all must thank you.

Scott (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 11:48 PM)

Congratulations Obama supporters if he goes all the way I will vote for him in November if he doesn't go all the way I urge all of you to support whoever the nominee chances to be. That is what being a good democrat means.

Rufus Gibbons, DC (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 11:50 PM)

To all Dems who buy into the spin that "it was Independents that gave Obama the win":

That's precisely why you should be so excited (unless you're part of the HRC Democratic establishment). You cannot win simply with the "pure" Democrats. You need Independents. There's no question after tonight. Independents went with Barack by over a 3:1 margin over Hillary.

William, New York (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 11:51 PM)

As I see it the top three Edwards, Clinton and Obama are not even Democrates. They are Liberals at best and socialists at worst. They all scare the heck out of me. Sorry but i'm jumping ship!! The changes this country needs is to put more power and responsibility back into the hands of its people, "for the people by the people"! All these big Government, scoial programs, are the problem not the solution. I owe you nothing and you owe me nothing. We are entitled only to an opportunity to try and be the best we can with in the rules of mutual respect and personel responsability. I still beleave in America, where anything is posible, where farm kids can become scientists, where skin color holds no advantage nor disadvantage, and where a truck drivers daughter can build a company from an idea in her head. We need to start looking at these problems as AMERICANS! Not white-, African-, gay-, Christian-, or any other "...-Americans" but AMERICANS! In 2006 Democrates said they would bring an end to polotics as usual and out of control spending, they have not, in fact have done just the oppisite. Americas future does not lie with the likes of these.

MN (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 12:13 AM)

Sierra@9: "What a sore loser !! A sore loser is a LOSER !!"

I agree. It's hard work to imagine a sore loser winning a presidential election.

Pazuzu's Petals (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 12:13 AM)

If I hear one more person use the "experience" card in relation to Obama I'll slit my wrist with a voter registration card.

I like Edwards, only cuzz Kucinich is un-electable. I'll definitely take Obama over Hillary however, as she's full of it. She's a Rep in Dem's clothing.

Che, Altadena, CA (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 12:19 AM)

I'm not going to get excited over Barack Obama winning in Iowa. Well, someone has to say it, and that someone is going to be me. No first term, African-American is going to get the nomination from the power, and party politic in Washington. It just isn't going to happen. So Barack can celebrate his victory tonight, and I am happy for him, but in the end, the forces who do not want to see Obama win, and going to chew him up and spit him out.

Gary (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 12:21 AM)

The republican and democratic caucuses are run differently. Democrats must meet a threshold viability requirement in order for their candidate to get any delegates in their precinct. The viability requirement varies from precinct to precinct based on the number of delegates at stake in each precinct. Typically the viability requirement is 15% of the total people in attendance, but this is not a steadfast rule. Republicans have no viability requirement. They run a typical election where every vote is counted.

So the democratic poll numbers you are seeing represent the democratic party's estimate of the number of DELEGATES each candidate won. These delegates will go on to the STATE and COUNTY conventions to be held later this spring. These delegates will then select the state's 57 delegates to the democratic party's national convention held in the summer.

The republican numbers are actual vote totals for all precincts. So these are statewide totals.

The viability requirement (typically 15%) would explain the poor showing of the secind tier candidates. For instance in my preceinct 468 people showed up (200 plus more than in 2004). Each candidate needed 70 supporters to be viable and be in the delegate hunt. My prefered candidate was Joe Biden. We had only 43 supporters (roughly 10% of the poeople in attendance) and therefore were not viable. So Joe unfortunately got no delegates in my precinct despite getting 10% of the vote. The Biden supporters either left the caucus or realigned with another candidate.

Hope that helps explain things.

Kato in Des Moines (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 12:22 AM)

People. First compare the Republicans and the Democrats. Irrespective of which of the latter you prefer, give me a break: Huckabee? Romney? Shoutin/spoutin John McCain? And Rudolph was a red-nosed no show. For the first time in a long time, the Demos are giving you choices. Be happy for the controversy. It is a long battle and one shout or scream can ruin a candidate. But for now at least there is some quality on the left. Check them out. Let them run. Make an intelligent decision.

Beto Negreal, Santa Barbara, California (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 12:50 AM)

I lived in Iowa for over a dozen years and participated in the Democratic caucuses every two years. (Yes, Virginia, even in off years.) Those who complain about the structure and rules forget that it is a party function, not a state run primary. Politics is tough business and if you can't garner enough support for your candidate, he is eliminated and you go with your second choice, as you should. The fact that this process goes on in over 1700 individual precincts makes it pretty representative to my view. I like Biden, Dodd and Richardson. They are outstanding men who will continue to offer great service to our republic, but if they weren't able to muster enough support anywhere across the state, then they probably wouldn't have done much better in a straight ahead primary-style vote. I am most impressed with the turnout. For over a third of the registered Democrats in Iowa to turn out on a FRIGID winter night is fabulous and I salute their dedication to Democracy.

Philip Scott, Dallas, Texas (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 12:59 AM)

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