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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

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Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



Iowa results (R)

Posted: Friday, January 04, 2008 9:29 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: ,

With 96% reporting, it was Huckabee 34%, Romney 25%, Thompson 13% (15,521 votes), McCain 13% (15,248), Paul 10%, Giuliani 3%, and Hunter 0% (515 votes statewide).

The Boston Globe: “The loss to Huckabee represents a major blow to Romney, whose planned path to the Republican presidential nomination always began in Iowa.” And: “Huckabee faces a tougher fight in New Hampshire, where there are few evangelical Christians. But the Arkansas lawmaker, pointing to polls showing him performing well in states like South Carolina and Georgia, hopes to use Iowa to build a national groundswell of support.”

The AP’s Liz Sidoti adds, “Evangelical Republicans in Iowa chose one of their own in Mike Huckabee.” More: “But the looming question is whether the Southern Baptist minister turned decade-long Arkansas governor is strong enough to triumph outside friendly Iowa territory, and go the distance to the nomination.”

NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell says that Huckabee landed in Manchester about 3:50 am ET. On the plane, surrounded by cameras, he spoke to reporters on the record for a while and was all smiles. Huckabee described how he had been in the air traveling from Waterloo to Des Moines when the early caucus results were pointing to victory. He and wife Janet explained how their blackberries were buzzing madly upon landing with word from staff and friends that they had won. With a big smile, he claimed to have been last to know of his victory. Huckabee said he had spoken with Guiliani and McCain but had not yet heard from Romney or Thompson. And he said he expects money to flow in and interest on the Web site to increase. He claimed the campaign had been very frugal and that he felt good about having two million dollars in the bank.

Meanwhile, it’s 3:45 am in Manchester, and Romney has just arrived at an airport hangar where a couple hundred supporters are giving him a warm welcome on a very chilly night, NBC’s Ron Allen noted overnight. Romney's voice is hoarse. It's been a long day followed by a long nearly three-hour trip from Iowa. But with his wife Ann and two of his sons by his side, he bounds onto the makeshift stage -- with his smile, a look of optimism, and real appreciation in place. He's looking forward, not back.

"We've brought home the silver, not the gold,” he said. “But in New Hampshire, we're getting the gold," he assured the crowd with the same Olympic metaphor that he used in Iowa. "We've learned a lot of lessons," he said about the Iowa caucuses, without saying what they were.

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Not sure why the pundits think Huckabee has not change. It's pretty obvious what's going to happen. McCain beats Romney in New Hampshire, basically knocking him out, no matter what he says now. Huckabee beats Romney in Michigan and that's it. In South Carolina, Huckabee beats McCain creating momentum going into Florida where he pulverizes Giuliani and McCain and cruises to the nomination.
Huckabee needs to work hard to win over New Hampshire.  I am predicting that McCain could win in N.H.  But if you are looking down the road, and if Huckabee does NOT win in N.H., he can still pull this off by February 5th if he "catches fire" in the other states.  My own State of FL has a very high evangelical population.
I guess there will be a deal made at the GOP convention based on last night.
Besides the percentages, what are the actual numbers for Huckabee 34%, Romney 25%? You gave the numbers for the lower percentages, why not for everyone?
LIKE I HAVE BEEN WRITING, MORALITY COUNTS, LOOK AT THE CLINTONS, PEOPLE DID GO TO THE CLINTONS SCANDALS AND PARDONS, AND THE NOHILLARY.COM, BUT IT STILL AMAZES ME THAT SHE STILL GOT SOME VOTES, SHOWS THERE ARE STILL SOME SICK PEOPLE OUT THERE.  ROMMNEY LIES DID HIM IN, PLUS MIKE HUCKABEE IS A VERY SMART MAN WITH EXCEPTIONAL DEBATING SKILLS.
When will the national media get it right? When will they realize that the United States of America is a CHRISTIAN nation????

Can Huckabee win past Iowa? Uh, yeah?! The US is Christian by majority. But what people fail to realize is that Mike Huckabee is more than a Christian. He is also a populist, which drives the Republican establishment insane because it screws up their plans to grab all the cash of the middle class.

The Club for Growth (Greed) a huge Republican special interest group is already declaring Huckabee an unacceptable candidate. Why? not because he's a Christian, but because he's a populist, someone who realizes that when education needs improvement and the people vote for a tax hike to make it happen, he's smart enough to stand with the people (as he did in Arkansas). He's smart enough to know, that when the people vote for better roads, knowing full well that in order to improve roads and bridges that taxes must go up, he stands with the will of the people rather than the Republican establisment.

Finally, the people of this country have a man running for President who has moral conviction (without forcing it on anyone) and fiscal common sense (fix what needs fixing but don't get insane with it).

There are two Republican parties in this country, Social conservatives and Fiscal Conservatives. Social conservatives, such as myself are pro-life, pro-military, support the right to bear arms, support traditional marriage etc - as do the majority of Americans - Republicans, Moderate Democrats and Independents can all come together on these issues.
Crap, if the roads need to be fixed, then fix them, we're willing to pay for that. If our schools need improvment, then for crying out loud improve them, we're willling to pay for that. That's where most Social Conservatives stand. Mike Huckabee fills that bill.

It's the Fiscal Republicans that are divisive because of their greed. This is the element of the Republican Party that irks Democrats, Independents and Social Conservatives like myself.

This is why Mike Huckabee is receiving so much resistance from the Fiscal Republican establisment. In fact, they're scared, because when people investigate his record and where he stands as a Social conservative they realize that he will get the majority of the Christian vote but will also have a huge cross-over vote from Moderate Democrats and Social Conservative Independents.

Think about it for a minute, here's a guy who no one gave a snoball's chance in hell of winning Iowa, and he smoked Romney. The polls were wrong and the will of the people prevailed. Here'a a guy who served 10+ years as governor of a heavily Democratic state. He knows how to connect with the other side of the aisle to make things work and will as President on issues such as: a realistic healthcare solution, a realistic plan for Iraq, improved infrastructure nation-wide, nailing Bin Laden, etc.

Obama did a great job in Iowa, but he's not a social conservative and I, as the majority of Americans, can't in good conscience vote for a pro-abortion, pro-gay candidate.

Huckabee gives Social Conservatives a champion, finally a guy we feel good about giving our vote. I think as the election moves forward, Socially Conservative, Moderate Democrats and Socially Independent Americans will choose Huckabee, despite the best efforts by the media and the Club for Greed  to downplay him. Finally, a man who can unite our country. Please give him your vote for a better and united America.
I find it hard to believe in this day and age how Mike Huckabee was able to pull off the political crime of the century. If Mike Huckabee had made a racial statement about a black candidate or a sexist comment about a female candidate, American would have not allowed him to capitalize on such statements. Why did his religious bigotry toward another candidates faith not bring such rath from a nation that has worked for hundreds of years to put such thinking behind us. What a double standard and everyone seems blind to it even though it was exactly what brought Mike Huckabee to the forefront in Iowa.
Fred Thompson did great!  Third place after some polls were showing him at just 7%.  Now--let's start talking a little bit about Wyoming!!!  Why not?  Anything else going on this Saturday night?
Morals count?? Please Romney has morals over Huckabee any day.  Did Romney try to steal furniture leaving the governor's mansion.  Did Romney destro government hard drives when leaving office to prevent an investigation about missue of a government plane, did Romney accept money for speeches from special interest groups while governor, did Romney try to coverup an investigation of a dog killing son, did Romney set up a gift registry so people would buy him a house when he left office, did Romney pressure a parole board to release a violent rapist who went on to rape and kill again. In Huckabee's negative ad that did air he said while Romney was gov. Mass. didn't execute anyone he didn't mention that Mass. didn't have the death penalty even though Romney tried to get one.
I am thrilled at Giuliani's anemic showing (though he really did not expect to win Iowa and barely campained there). From what I have seen, Giuliani is by far the most neo-conservative cannidate in the field and is the last thing we need right now. Also, Giuliani probably has the best chance to beat whoever the Democratic nominee is, especially if it is Clinton. While I am leery of Huckabee and Romney and hope that either Obama or (miraculously) Edwards will be our next president, anyone will be better then Giuliani and his promised continuance of Bush policies. I hope people are seeing Giuliani for what he is: a corrupt, elitist who uses tragic the loss of 3000 American lives as the reason he should be President.
LETS GO MIT. VOTE MIT
"He and wife Janet explained how their blackberries were buzzing madly ..." but being as technological guru that he his, he was incapable of answering it.  Te-he.

Congratulations Fmr. Gov. Huckabee, he must be happy.  His victory shows that even the Republican field feels that our nation is moving in the wrong direction, even if the majority claim to support G.W. Bush.

I hope M. Huckabee isn't too worried about B. Spears to campaign in NH.  So, my question to the MSM is who will dominate the headlines?  B. Spears or M. Huckabee and B.H. Obama?  Let's think about journalistic integrity and what is more important to America.  You guys are doing well so far.
It's time for a McCain surge.
FRANK YOUR LIES ARE THE SAME AS ROMMNEYS, I CHECKED OUT EVERYTHING YOU SAID AND IT S ALL A SPIN, SORRY GOOD TRY BUT WITH THE INTERNET YOU CANT SPIN ANYMORE, LOOK AT THE RESULTS AND ZIP IT
Robert, I think they only showed the numbers on those candidates because they were tied percentage wise (and zero wasn't actually zero for Hunter- just close).  All the actual numbers are available on CNN.com.

David, we all know that you are brimming with pride- your candidate won last night- congrats.  However, your personal love affair with Huck has clouded your brain- Frank did a good job of pointing out why.  Huck is not a moral man.  He has also lied, on the record, numerous times in the last few weeks.  Frank also brought up a good point about the death penalty in Mass, which totally negates Huck's argument against Romney on crime.  So basically, all the things you have against Romney are the same things other people see wrong with Huckabee. Just FYI. http://www.nodp.org/ma/s1.html

Afterall, actions speak louder than words.
Proud Huckabee Supporter:

Nice to see an articulate, well thought out post for a change! However, I think your definition of a Fiscal conservative is off the mark. Fiscal conservatives (whom there are very few left in either party) are those who believe in small government and responsible spending (I.E. balanced budget!). The current Republican establishment is made up of mostly fake social conservatives who pander to the moral base of the party while pushing a fully corporate agenda.
RON PAUL's showing of 10%, though ignored, is huge! Few know him well because he gets no mainstream attention (read today's stories). Those who know him, vote for him. That is why he is doing so well, just behind McCain, and Thompson (Both EXTREMELY well known). Look out Huckabee!
When will the main-stream media start covering  Dr. Ron Paul like the serious candidate he is? He placed just a few votes behind both McCain and Thompson, and has even more support in the west. Read what he has to say for himself, and not what others have to say about him. You can find "mistakes" or just flat out lies from most all others running for office, you can't say the same for Dr. Paul.www.ronpaul2008.com
Is anyone concerned about the rapid downhill slide of the stock market that is occuring today after the election results for Obama and Huckabee in Iowa yesterday?  
TO "Proud Huckabee Supporter"
Phillips Brooks American Religious Leader:
"In the best sense of the work, Jesus was a radical…His religion has so long been identified with conservatism…that it is almost startling sometimes to remember that all the conservatives of his own times were against him; that it was the young, free, restless, sanguine, progressive part of the people who flocked to him.

1883 Sermons

If you are a Christians - good for you.  Enjoy it, but don't make it a burden on others.  Do you really, honestly, believe that is what Jesus would have you do?  You cannot MAKE someone love you, only to fear you. Nor can you MAKE someone respect you, only resent you.

If you are a Chrisian - SHOW me, don't tell me.
The last thing this, or any nation, needs is a governmental decree that any particular set of beliefs is mandatory.  Can you not see the horror and misery such circumstances have wrought these past few thousand years?

Let your religion be like your spouse and family - the most beautiful and wondrous things in the world.  But do not try to make me agree that yours is more wonderful than mine - for thence unpleasantness ensues.
Proud Huckabee supporter doesn't seem to be aware that a majority of Americans support a woman's right to choose.  It is a MINORITY of Americans who cannot vote for a pro-choice candidate.
Yeah and if you kept invistigating instead of looking at the red arrows you would know that it had to do with the unemployment rate reaching 5%. Typical americans always trying to blame something on someone! Wow!
Finally, the people of this country have a man running for President who has moral conviction (without forcing it on anyone)

I, as the majority of Americans, can't in good conscience vote for a pro-abortion, pro-gay candidate.

~Proud Huckabee supporter

I thought you made alot of good points but that fact that you say you want to support someone because they don't force their moral convictions on other people and then bash Obama because of his own moral convictions is very contradictory.  




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