First thoughts: A new front-runner

Posted: Friday, January 04, 2008 9:32 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: First Thoughts

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
MANCHESTER, NH -- The biggest single change from yesterday to today is this: Barack Obama is the new front-runner. And with that distinction comes a lot, including: increased scrutiny, higher expectations, and a big fat bullseye on his back. Obama thought he was under a microscope before? He ain’t seen nothing yet. But as recent history has shown, being the front-runner after Iowa isn’t a bad place to be. Four years ago, John Kerry took a single victory in Iowa, added a scoop of Dean scream, and turned it into a rout for the nomination. Team Obama hopes to ride this same wave, which may be bigger and stronger since he appears to be the first serious movement candidate with a shot at the nomination since McGovern. The calendar is certainly on his side. By the way, a few months back, we had an Obama partisan tell us that if Obama won Iowa substantially, the endorsements would start rolling in. How many reporters have already emailed Kalee Kreider asking her Al Gore's whereabouts?

*** More than an eight-point win: The Clinton campaign late last night was dismissing Obama’s victory as an eight-point win. "Judging the entire nominating process on eight percent of one state is a dubious exercise," said Clinton spokesman Jay Carson. But if not for the arcane caucus process, Obama’s win would have been MUCH larger. If it had been a normal primary, Obama’s margin of victory might have been 15-20 points. It wasn’t close. And remember that Kerry beat Edwards in 2004 by just six points, 38%-32%.

*** The referendum on Bush: Obama and Huckabee, of course, are the big headlines from last night. But the person who had perhaps as great an influence on the outcome was the guy who -- it was joked -- wasn’t even going to watch the results: President Bush. ("What time do all the results start coming in?” White House spokeswoman Dana Perino asked yesterday. “Because he goes to bed early." Perino today told NBC's Savannah Guthrie that Bush DID watch the results.) After all, would a message of hope from someone who hadn’t even served in the US Senate for one full term would be resonating right now if Bush’s approval rating wasn’t in the 30s? Or what about the appeal of an easygoing, likeable former Arkansas governor who seems the farthest removed from the Beltway Establishment and who also hasn’t always said kind things about Bush? Yet the biggest sign of Bush’s influence last night was this result: a whopping 239,000 people participated in the Democratic caucuses, compared with 116,000 for the GOP.

*** Reinventing Hillary: Clinton's classy concession speech should buy her some time from some of the media vultures that are circling. The campaign has to deal with a couple of things that may be hard to control: 1) Keep Clinton staffers from talking on background (at least until New Hampshire's over). By the way, should we read much into the fact that Mark Penn was NOT with the candidate this morning but was with the press? Does the candidate want Penn around right now or not? 2) Try and tamp down expectations here in New Hampshire. Was she ahead in this state as of yesterday, and if that's the case, does that skew her expectations making second place a disappointment? A few weeks ago, we got the impression New Hampshire was already a dead heat, but a number of public polls had her ahead as of yesterday. Also, just how does the campaign pivot on message? Stick with the experience to bring change mantra, and hope that Obama makes a rookie mistake so that voters decide that experience matters more again? What about women? The fact that there was such a generational divide in her support in Iowa is something the campaign needs to avoid here.

*** Single elimination: Can either Romney or McCain survive in this race if they don't win New Hampshire? Probably not. In fact, one might say New Hampshire is a single elimination tournament for the two one-time frontrunners. Romney, in particular, can't afford to go 0-2, and McCain can't keep his media base buying into the comeback story if he doesn't produce a win. McCain was a disappointing 4th in Iowa. And he seems ready to get into a brawl with Romney but is that something either candidate wants? See below…

*** Brand equity: The one thing the two winners of Iowa have in common was their ability to create, keep, and strengthen the brands they set out to develop when this campaign began. Both Huckabee and Obama set out to change the tone of their respective primary campaigns, and while both almost got tempted to get into a brawl when things appeared darkest, the two resisted and the gamble paid off. It's a stark contrast to Clinton and Romney, the two one-time front-runners, who seemed to change their message every six weeks to respond to a new challenge or challenger.

*** Other winners and losers: The other winners from last night: Des Moines Register pollster Ann Selzer, Obama Iowa aides Paul Tewes and Steve Hildebrand, grassroots evangelicals, and Clinton deputy campaign manager Mike Henry (who famously argued that the Clinton camp should skip Iowa). Among the losers were the pro-Clinton Emily’s List (Obama won the female vote), pro-Clinton AFSCME, pro-Edwards SEIU locals (which ran those 527 ads helping the former North Carolina senator); and the Club for Growth (which inundated Iowan airwaves with ads trying to stop Huckabee and didn’t). This is the second-straight cycle in which AFSCME and SEIU -- which then backed Dean -- didn’t fare well in Iowa. And just asking: When is Club for Growth going to start actually winning some big battles? While the group can point to some recent congressional wins, Steve Laffey’s loss last year in Rhode Island (wounding Lincoln Chafee in the process) and Pat Toomey’s defeat to Arlen Specter seem to overshadow those victories. And now they can't take down Huckabee in Iowa...

*** On the trail: The game now moves to New Hampshire… Clinton has already attended a rally with her husband in Nashua and hits the New Hampshire 100 Club Dinner in Milford; Edwards already held a rally in Manchester and campaigns there and then in Portsmouth; Huckabee plays with a local musical band in Henniker; McCain stumps in Hollis, Hudson, and Nashua; Obama, as of this writing, is rallying in Portsmouth and later rallies in Concord before attending the 100 Club Dinner; Richardson also does the dinner, as well as campaign across the state; and Romney has already stumped in Portsmouth and travels to Concord and Manchester.

Countdown to New Hampshire: 4 days
Countdown to Michigan: 11 days
Countdown to Nevada and SC GOP primary: 15 days
Countdown to SC Dem primary: 22 days
Countdown to Florida: 25 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 32 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 305 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 382 days

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Comments

Where's Van?

Hey Van, what's the margin of error on a poll of 200,000 people?

Ron, TX (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 9:45 AM)

A new day has begun, and the fresh air is amazing. President Obama will re-invigorate this country and lead us to greater heights. I was astounded by his speech last night. I am on board now with him.

HRC, just back out graciously. Please!!!

Chuck, NY (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 9:49 AM)

What a jerk, as proven by the fact that it's more important to call me out than comment on the actual election. Thanks for that.

Van

vanreuter, NY NY (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 9:53 AM)

Daily First Read Truth-Pak-

Trust no one...
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http://www.ontheissues.org/default.htm This is a Great site! Every candidate on every issue!

How the candidates have voted and their LIberal/Conservative ratings
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Van

vanreuter, NY NY (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 9:54 AM)

Hillary is too savvy to let Iowa stop her. Obama will ride the wave, but i still dont think he can sustain. Mc CAin, Giulani (?? who) are out. its always been about Barack and Hillary anyhow.... I think Huckabee will get the GOP nomination but i dont think it even matters. Wishy washy.... hello does anyone remember Michael Dukakis???? thats Huckabee's fate..

Lynette, NYC (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 9:54 AM)

Congratulations to Senator Obama and Governor Huckabee. Now it's on to New Hampshire and elections you don't need a guidebook to understand. I'll be leaving for New Hampshire today to put my mouth (and dialing finger) where my money is.
The results also vindicate Anne Setzer, the DMR pollster, who took a lot of heat, but whose numbers turned out to be right on. They also make ridiculous the smug instance of an, insider/decider, who would like you to believe that polls are meaningless unless they're private, secret ones.

Van

vanreuter, NY NY (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 9:54 AM)

“McCain can't keep his media base buying into the comeback story if he doesn't produce a win”

Mark Murray… is this an unusual moment of candor? Are you part of his “media base?” Did you just acknowledge that you and your MSM colleagues are not objective and do not even hide your lack of objectivity well?

Go Ron Paul!

Tim, CT (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 9:57 AM)

Another big winner -- young voters. Turnout among voters ages 18-29 increased to 13%, up from 4% in 2004. Young voters proved the conventional wisdom wrong and proved the turnout increases we saw in the 2004 general election and the 2006 mid-terms are a trend, not a blip.

Alexandra Acker, Washington, DC (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 9:58 AM)

Hillary is too savvy to let Iowa stop her. Obama will ride the wave, but i still dont think he can sustain.

Lynette, NYC (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 9:54 AM)

Here is Hillary's problem: Losing Iowa isn't devastating in and of itself, but the fact that 20% of the voters were Independent, and that Obama won most of those doesn't bode well for her. New Hampshire has a significant Independent bloc, and they are allowed to vote in either primary. It is likely that they will vote Democrat, and if last night was any indication, Obama leads among Independents.

If Obama should win New Hampshire, he would almost certainly win South Carolina. Then Clinton would have to deal with 3 losses and Obama's momentum would be huge.

Of course, we still have to see what happens in New Hampshire.

CitizenJ (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 10:01 AM)

You reap what you sow.

Go Obama! America may actually have a chance! Watch out New Hampshire!

Ron, TX (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 10:02 AM)

vanreuter, NY NY (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 10:04 AM)

Congratulations to Senator Obama!! The people want change and they spoke on it!! I hope that other Clinton and Edwards supporters will see that Obama is very much a viable candidate!!

Dante (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 10:05 AM)

Van:

Time to take your polls and go home....
And take your girl with you.....

You know why Hillary Clinton got whipped last night?

1. Trying to equate "experience" with being a first lady is like me coaching football on my couch every Sunday afternoon and then going out and trying to get the head coaching job in Baltimore. You can only fool some of the people some of the time if you are seriously trying to convince people that watching your husband equals experience.

2. Instead of coming out with a brand new slogan every week, why not try and discuss the issues with the people, answer the hard questions, and stop trying to look like you won the prom queen title when the voting hasn't even started yet. Just because your name is "Clinton" doesn't mean everybody is going to kowtow down to you (except when it comes to a few names in here I could mention).

3. Stop using your husband. He goes out and talks about all the wonderful things he supposedly did in the 90's and says all the great ideas were his wife's. Well, if that is true, why did we need Bill Clinton? In that scenario, it makes Bill Clinton in the 90's look like Hillary's puppet and now it is 2008 and it looks like the roles have changed.

Hillary got smacked down last night....
If she's smart, she'll take a look at all that wronged her and try and fix it....

If not, she may as well report back to the Senate and try to make some more sweetheart deals for billionaires in New York State....

jerry/corpus christi texas (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 10:05 AM)

ONE THING FOR SURE, PEOPLE HAVENT FORGOT THE PEVERTED ACTS OF BILL CLINTON, AND HILLARY WRITING HER THESIS ON COMMUNISM, AND THE PARDON MONEY, AND I DONT THINK JENNIFER FLOWERS BOOK WHERE SHE STATED BILL TOLD HER THAT HILLARY HAD MORE WOMEN THAN HIM, HELPED HER. THANK GOD THAT MORALITY STILL COUNTS. YOU CANT RENT THE LINCOLN BEDROOM TO A DRUG DEALER. IM A HUCKABEE SUPPORTER THAT HELPED OBAMA.

David Anders Pharr ,Tx. (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 10:10 AM)

There's something amusing about you all (and First Read) treating the Huckabee win as a fluke, but the Obama win as real.....

Yes, let's nominate another spoiled wealthy white boy
just like bush.

doubt obama is white? who raised him?

blester,texas (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 10:10 AM)

You forgot to mention one of the biggest winners from last night.

CHUCK NORRIS !

Score one for the kick-ass white conservative that believes in God.

I have a question: When NORRIS endorsed Huckabee, did Mitt Romney even hear the spinning back kick coming? Thump!

Last night an intern asked Bill Clinton if he had "checked the closet before they did-it, for reporters?"
Bill said, "No, CHUCK NORRIS!"

And the biggest joke is Hillary left clutching her purse and a 3rd place trophy. After all it requires a village to raise a queen.....

RH Oregon (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 10:10 AM)

too chunk todd- the statement that was made was to be races by the way the word "this" is that protanting to this: Barack Obama -be very caareful of the words that are use you may be in the spotlight and that not were you want to be.. The upcoming election will tell all -wait and see that obama will be the next president....

carol smith,folkston,ga. (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 10:12 AM)

Inaccurate in the second graph of this story -- that if it had not been for Iowa's arcane caucus system, Obama would have won by a higher percentage. In fact, that is not true, as the 15% nonviability wiped out the totals for the lower-tier candidates.
If the Dems had a straw poll caucus the way the GOP does, the rankings would have remained the same, but Obama and Edwards percentage of votes would each have been lower than they were, while Richardson's (in particular) would have been much higher than it wound up being.
Of course, so long as MSNBC analysts (except for the very fair-minded Andrea Mitchell) persist in giggling like gleeful children over the Obama victory and pushing him as this marvelous change agent, we don't expect to see fair analysis here.
Let's face it folks, he gives a d*** fine speech, but when it comes to policy positions, you could write in his for Hillary's and Hillary's for his without blinking an eye, and when he talks about the urgency of now, it's his own urgency he has in mind.

M Wells San Diego (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 10:15 AM)

In 1972 the first year the 18 year olds were allowed to vote the supported George McGovern who ran on the premise that if we just pull out of Viet Nam the North Vietnamese would return all our POWs. I along with many other democrats broke ranks and voted for Nixon. When the war was finally ended after the POWs were returned the Vietnamese SOLD us the dead bodies that they had buried. Obama is a lot smarter than McGovern but he has a hard row to hoe He may win South Carolina if ALL the blacks vote for him but will not carry one southern state in the general racial prejudice is still rampant in Dixie you will see a lot more bigotry such as the Playboy ad used against Harold Ford in Tennessee. No I will not bolt the party this time.

Rufus Gibbons, DC (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 10:16 AM)

Did I mention I am thrilled with the results of Iowa? :)

I think that Senator Obama has been receiving front runner scrutiny from day one - and he has come out stronger for it. The cynical media has underestimated how hungry the American people are to be proud of our President again. We are tired of choosing the lesser of two evils - we want someone who can not only lead us, but inspire us to hold our heads up high again.

I'm excited about the future - it's not just about Obama - it's about America. No matter who ultimately wins, Barack Obama proves that nice guys can finish first! :)

Nashville_fan (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 10:17 AM)

RON PAUL PULLS IN 10% OF IOWA'S REPUBLICAN VOTES.

Read all about it.

But not here...

???????????

You Can't Ignore a Revolution (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 10:17 AM)

Jerry, for once I agree with most of what you wrote. The paramedics are firing up the paddles even as I write.

Joe Einloth (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 10:20 AM)

Hillary was the loser, before she started, she is too much of an ego-maniac to see it.
The country isn't behind her & has never been, now it is a documented fact.

She wouldn't even acknowledge her loss, she & her camp were too busy spinning, while the rest of the country made it clear that we see though her.

We proved that we know that she is a power broker, interested in retaining & growing her power in Wash. voters wiould be the last considered.

middle age woman in usa (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 10:22 AM)

I thought Senator Clinton was quite gracious in her acceptance speech last night. I thought her speech was very good and I think that if she shakes of all of her handlers, and just stands up and looks the American people in the eye and makes her case (not let former President Clinton make it), she will indeed be a formidable candidate.

I most certainly want Senator Obama as the Democratic nominee, but I could support the Senator Clinton who spoke last night. Let's have a campaign, not smears and innuendo.

Nashville_fan (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 10:22 AM)

I would advise some of you (and you know who you are) to get all of your celebrating done quickly. This was the beginning, not the end, of the process. Will Huckabee and Obama now run the table? Unless there's a twenty or thirty point, 'bump", from Iowa (and that's not a bump, it's a mountain)the answer is no.

vanreuter, NY NY (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 10:04 AM)

Van,

I can't speak for anyone else, but I'm as happy about the turnout as I am about the Obama victory. It was impressive and good for the party. And I'm not really expecting Obama or Huckabee to run the table. But for Obama to win the nomination, he had to win Iowa. And not only did he win it, but he won it decisively. And that is what Hillary did NOT want.

If Obama wins the majority of the states before Feb. 5th, it will be an uphill climb for Clinton.

CitizenJ (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 10:23 AM)

doubt obama is white? who raised him?

I dunno, . .. wolves?

linkedin (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 10:25 AM)

Wow ,that speach . goosebumps ,cant even type right now.

ki houston (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 10:26 AM)

I dont think HRC really did anything wrong. It just seems as if the country wanted something different - change rather than experience.

Leye, Richmond, Va (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 10:26 AM)

Clinton to media: Don't ask me any questions, I will tell u what i want you to hear. do not ask anyone in my campaign questions either including mommy and chucky i mean chelsea, oh whatever her name is. Remember we still are the president, and forget about those documents i said would be released

HillaryisToast (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 10:27 AM)

Van, i agree, it was'nt right to call you out personally. However, there is No denying the Fact of the Importance of Iowa last night.Anyone that watched his Victory speech would have to be brain dead Not to be moved by it. Hillary to this point, has'nt been able to arrouse that in the Voter's.She really has an uphill climb. It is a Mountain, make No doubt about it.People in this country are sick & tired of the Status quo, & unless she find's a way to tap into that message, she's Done. Last night was an indication that the Personal Destruction of one's Character will not work. Better find a new way to get your message out, if you can.

Barack Obama, the next PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.

Rick,ky (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 10:28 AM)

i want to say that just as hillary was gracious in defeat, van has shown good charachter with his congratulations and graciousness.

it isn't over yet. the clinton's are not going away that easy. their camapign was built for a marathon. she has serious issues before her now, but it ain't over.

the speech obama gave was monumental. expect him to get kneecapped a lot now that the candidates are out of iowa. let's see how he handles it. i think he will do just fine.

i think after new hampshire john edwards and richardson will be done. there was an article at the yahoo site that wrote an insider at the edwards campaign said if he drops out he will lend his suport to barack obama. it hasn't been verified. it maybe just spin. we will see soon.

it would be the best of both worlds for me as an independent if these to ended up on the same ticket as president and vice president. add biden as the secretary of state and richardson as u.n. ambassador.

it would be the perfect storm all the way to 1600 pennsylvania avenue. that foursome would be so powerful for the nation and internationally.

the anticipation of actual change is very exciting.

one note: a republican committe strategist said last night that they are very concerned about running against obama. their hope is to run against hillary because of what it would do for revving up the gop base and how it would bring independents back to them.
(that admision from the gop is powerful)

imagine the power nationwide if obama and john edwards were to team up. imagine the coalition that would be formed. just think about what that would do to the republicans. just imagine it.

ace (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 10:29 AM)

Ron, TX: '...Where's Van?

Hey Van, what's the margin of error on a poll of 200,000 people?...'

Ron, be nice to van
We need him to track the Post-Iowa national polls for us ;-)

The race is still on
But, there is a new front runner, OBAMA

But, the door for Hillary is going to start closing..

What is Hillary's new message ?

An 'electable' candidate who loses Iowa (and maybe NH) ?
An 'experienced' candidate who can't run a competent campaign ?
(the 'inevitable' tag war ARROGANT... she seemed to be saying: 'It doesn't matter what the voters do, I'm gonna win, anyway')
'Foreign policy' when the NY Times blew that away, revealing that she had no security clearance and didn't participate in decision or even discussions

We have to hope that Obama doesn't make a major gaffe

If Obama wins NH, that leaves South Carolina as the next contested primary
New Hampshire will validate Obama in the eyes of African Americans and loosen up their support for Obama

Interestingly, the California absentee ballots haven't yet been been mailed out.
That probably cost Hillary 10% of voters who might have automatically voted for her.
Now, these absentee voters will be confronted with a new 'front runner'

Hillary was ahead in California by 25% in November
She was ahead by 14% in December (a steep decline)
What will the January poll look like ?
A competitive race ?

The key polls are the state level polls for the New Hampshire and South Carolina, now

Soon the key polls will be the state poll for the Feb Super Tuesday states.

Let's see how those polls start to change

Obama/Edwards '08
Honesty, Integrity, REAL Change

Sierra, SF (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 10:30 AM)

CHUCK NORRIS AND HIS WIFE(WHO IS A KNOCKOUT) HAD TEARS IN THEIR EYES DURING HUCKABEE'S SPEECH, AS DID I. ITS SO REFRESHING TO SEE MORALITY WIN, COMPARED TO THE SCANDALS AND PARDONS OF THE CLINTONS, AND THE LIES OF ROMMNEY. I BEG THE PEOPLE OF N H TO GIVEABUCKFORHUCK AND A VOTE.

David Anders Pharr ,Tx. (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 10:31 AM)

Rufus, outside of Florida (maybe)the Dems won't win any southern state one way or the other. It won't matter, if they win Florida.

Joe Einloth (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 10:35 AM)

The overall big winner was not any particular candidate, but the Democratic Party as a whole. More than 200,000 of our party braved the cold Iowa night, and caucused, many for the first time - a record, beating out the repubican caucus goers by a margin of more than 2 to 1. This just shows that Democrats are galvanized ever more for this 2008 presidential election - more that the republicans. So, whoever our nominee is, the republicans better be scared because we've got the momentum of our party, in general, and I know, who ever it is, we'll be behind him or her 100%!

My only hope, is that if Obama is our nominee, he'll be able to win over enough Independents to win the general election. That's the key to victory in 2008. And it always has been. So, this is the real test for Hillary....in NH, where many Independents are expected to vote in the Dem. Primary there. So, whoever wins in NH, has done so with the help of Independents, and that person, therefore, truly deserves to be the Dem. nominee. Thankfully, I will be away from TVs this weekend in Albany, NY.

Pat Huntington NY (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 10:37 AM)

i think enough americans are beyond the race issue that a person of color or a woman could win. the south is not as cemented in it's views of bigotry as it was in the 70's, 80's and early 90's yes, you have some racists and some who are still non-progressive, but remember that the south's demographics mentally, educationally and because of migration has changed.

it is very possible to win in the south. like i said yesterday. i have family and friends in the south. they aren't the same philosophically as in previous decades. they want change and a working government too.

ace (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 10:39 AM)

I am glad that the people in Iowa decided to buck the system and vote for change on both sides of the aisle. I think that Obama and Huckabee both will bring fresh air to the stale gridlock that is Washington.

Brian, Houston TX (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 10:44 AM)

Thanks to First Read for pointing out what few have been writing about:

Were it not for the caucus system, Obama's win would have been even more resounding. In the Des Moines caucus aired on CSpan (they picked this particular caucus because it's the most representative in Iowa), Obama beat Hillary by over 2 to 1 in terms of the numbers for him versus her. She's got to be happy that headline isn't showing up today.

SE, California (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 10:45 AM)

Rufus Gibbons, DC:'... will not carry one southern state in the general racial prejudice is still rampant in Dixie you will see a lot more bigotry such as the Playboy ad used against Harold Ford in Tennessee. No I will not bolt the party this time....'

Rufus, you may be partially right.....
But, I remember a similar situation in LA back in 1973
Tom Bradley was running for mayor against a good liberal Jesse Unruh ('money is the mother's milk of politics')
I think there was a hunger among white Los Angeles to vote for a qualified black candidate
Bradley won, and brought redevelopment and the Olympics to LA

No, Obama may not win Southern states, but don't sell Southerners short
There is probably more decency in this country than we know....

And the Republicans would be STUPID to run ads like that in the general (even the Swift boaters)

That would turn decent people in other parts of the country to feel they HAD TO VOTE for Obama

Vote your hopes and dreams..... not your fears

Sierra, SF (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 10:46 AM)

Edwards talks of change. Obama talks of change. Clinton talks of change. What are the changes we desire? We can all agree we want to live better, have more money, etc. What are our priorities? What does it mean to live better? It is true that the middle class is being marginalized but should we not look for the causes and address them in a rational manner? The affordability of advanced education along with retraining programs open to all should be one of our top priorities. Why?... because the lack thereof increases poverty and shrinks the middle class.
Venture capital needs to be focused not on just $30 Million deals and up, but on financing small businesses with seed capital all across the country. This can only happen if you have the right incentives for investors to take the risk. Hillary Rodham Clinton is the candidate that has addressed these issues and has worked on them for years. She established a tangible plan and has executed such in the private sector. Personally, I vote for freedom first, and then my pocketbook. Why?...because without freedom what do you have that is worth having? Without financial security you have no freedom. If you are voting on foreign policy then vote for Dodd as he is the most knowledgeable and capable in that arena. If you are concerned with the financial future of the country and your family, you owe it to dig into Clinton’s policy papers and into her personal history of accomplishment. In this day of 30 second sound bites it’s all about projecting an image. Packaging is nice but did you marry for beauty or did you marry for love?

Kimberly Peacock, NY NY (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 10:46 AM)

Back in Arkansas Huckabee often walks in the natural state. Would I lie.

Rufus Gibbons, DC (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 10:46 AM)

Having participated in the Iowa caucuses last night, I came away with this impression. The Obama people were the people voting from the heart and looking for the feel good candidate. And why not? We've had to endure seven miserable years of the current administration. The other candidates supporters were the more pragmatic folks looking at the experience level, who could do the job, and were more focused on issues. At my caucus and numerous others I am told, Clinton was in 2nd place until Biden, Richardson, and Dodd supporters split. They tended to go more Edwards and that put him into 2nd. Unfortunately for Edwards, he will probably have to drop out of the race after the South Carolina primary as he didn't put any distance between himself and Clinton. His speech at the end of the night was desparate sounding and I think did nothing to improve his situation. The interesting part of this race from here on out is whether pragmatism and experience will win out over style and heart.

IowaDem, Ankeny, IA (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 10:47 AM)

Here we go again with a new message from the HRC campaign:

After last night's crushing defeat, Hillary unveils her new stump speech this morning in New Hampshire. What is it? I'm the candidate for:
1) change (Obama's message)
2) the middle class (Edwards' messsage)
3) young people (again, Obama's message)

New Hampshire, show America you're as smart and savvy as Iowa and that you're not fooled by "this week's" version of HRC.

Bill, NY, NY (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 10:48 AM)

I just want to say to anyone who thinks that Barack Obama would not win in the south based on his race - I am from Birmingham Alabama - yes, folks, the statues of waterhoses and dogs and the stories of little girls killed in a church bombing are forever in the hearts, minds and everyday lives of all of us here. And to let you know, even in this pivotal place in America's Civil Rights movement, we have an AWESOME mayor of Birmingham who is African-American. We also have a white christian governor who calls for prayer and recognizes their answers. Anyone who thinks that the south is a place of racial intollerance has not lived here. I am a white woman whose family is from this area, grew up outside of Atlanta and have been back in Birmingham for thirteen years and I am here to tell you that although the stigma is that the south is intollerant of racial equality, the reality is that we have progressed farther than we are given credit for.

Having said that, I will say that I do think that Barack Obama is a good man with excellent ideals and dreams for this country, however, I do not think it is his time. I don't agree with his plans of action on the issues most important to me. Not because of the color of his skin or even his family's heritage, but rather his personal decisions on what direction to take this country; in particular with regards to our military and the funding for his domestic approach.

Kathryn in Bham (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 11:03 AM)

Nobody is talking about the only numbers that count in this country, how many delegates to the convention did the candidates win. Popular vote means nothing (ask Al Gore)

Delegates won in Iowa last night

Obama - 16
Clinton - 15 (Yes she was 2d not 3rd)
Edwards - 14

Bill, Yorktown, Virginia (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 11:10 AM)

Oh, Chuck, good thing you have this blog, eh? They sure cut you off last night when you went into your doom and gloom act! Ha, I'll give you this, at least your not as pathetic as the rest...the MSM were FALLING OVER THEMSELVES about Obama. Chris Matthews believes he was "delivered to us" from Indonesia! Ha! Just don't oversell the case, fellas, that's all I ask.

Bullseye seemed like a rather tacky choice of words, by the way.

Woo! God Bless America! Go Obama!

squintz, philly, pa (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 11:11 AM)

Delegates from Ia (total in parens);

Obama- 16(66)
Clinton-15(169)
Edwards-14(47)

Like I said, the winner still needs a couple more delegates for the nomination.

Years ago, I went to Monticello racetrack in New York to see the 1st Sugar Ray Leonard-Roberto Duran fight. I had never been to the, "trotters", before. I placed my bet and watched the horses pull the drivers in their little whatchamacallits around the track, and when they came towards the finish line (where we were seated) I jumped up and cheered at my horse's (and my paramutual)win, wondering why no one else was celebrating. One of my buddies said, disdainfully, "Uh, they go around AGAIN..."

Can anyone name a presidential candidate in the last say, FIFTY years, who won EVERY primary?

Van
(on to NH!)

vanreuter, NY NY (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 11:13 AM)

So long as the song of many here is one of hate for their nemesis rather than positive praise for their champion, they are losers, no matter what their candidate does...

Van

vanreuter, NY NY (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 11:15 AM)

kathryn, thank you. even though i don't agree with you somewhat, i want to say that t would be such a pleasure to have more people such as yourself on this site. the way you unbiasley describe the south but advocate your nonsupport of obama is refreshing.

it is good to see as huckabee said that we as americans should be able to have civil and respectable discourse o the issues. i can respect someone such as yourself. thank you again. your post was like fresh air mam.

ace (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 11:20 AM)

The common thread among Obama, Edwards, and even Huckabee to an extent was changing society in ways that are beneficial to the middle class. That's the theme that will take a Democrat to the White House. Edwards topped Clinton even though he was outspent 5 to 1 with that message. At my caucus a man gave a very moving and heartfelt speech that Democrats not walk away divided because that's the only thing that allowed a second Bush term. He probably received the most enthusiastic response of the entire evening. Democrats are energized. Huckabee's win as much as anything says that Evangelicals are profoundly dissatisfied with their available choices. That's a problem. As for the Ron Paul mild civil disturbance this also represents profound dissatisfaction among some rank and file Republicans, but the number of Americans who feel the government should provide virtually no services is very, very, very limited.

John B, Des Moines, IA (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 11:21 AM)

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