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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



First thoughts: A new front-runner

Posted: Friday, January 04, 2008 9:32 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under:

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
MANCHESTER, NH -- The biggest single change from yesterday to today is this: Barack Obama is the new front-runner. And with that distinction comes a lot, including: increased scrutiny, higher expectations, and a big fat bullseye on his back. Obama thought he was under a microscope before? He ain’t seen nothing yet. But as recent history has shown, being the front-runner after Iowa isn’t a bad place to be. Four years ago, John Kerry took a single victory in Iowa, added a scoop of Dean scream, and turned it into a rout for the nomination. Team Obama hopes to ride this same wave, which may be bigger and stronger since he appears to be the first serious movement candidate with a shot at the nomination since McGovern. The calendar is certainly on his side. By the way, a few months back, we had an Obama partisan tell us that if Obama won Iowa substantially, the endorsements would start rolling in. How many reporters have already emailed Kalee Kreider asking her Al Gore's whereabouts?

*** More than an eight-point win: The Clinton campaign late last night was dismissing Obama’s victory as an eight-point win. "Judging the entire nominating process on eight percent of one state is a dubious exercise," said Clinton spokesman Jay Carson. But if not for the arcane caucus process, Obama’s win would have been MUCH larger. If it had been a normal primary, Obama’s margin of victory might have been 15-20 points. It wasn’t close. And remember that Kerry beat Edwards in 2004 by just six points, 38%-32%.

*** The referendum on Bush: Obama and Huckabee, of course, are the big headlines from last night. But the person who had perhaps as great an influence on the outcome was the guy who -- it was joked -- wasn’t even going to watch the results: President Bush. ("What time do all the results start coming in?” White House spokeswoman Dana Perino asked yesterday. “Because he goes to bed early." Perino today told NBC's Savannah Guthrie that Bush DID watch the results.) After all, would a message of hope from someone who hadn’t even served in the US Senate for one full term would be resonating right now if Bush’s approval rating wasn’t in the 30s? Or what about the appeal of an easygoing, likeable former Arkansas governor who seems the farthest removed from the Beltway Establishment and who also hasn’t always said kind things about Bush? Yet the biggest sign of Bush’s influence last night was this result: a whopping 239,000 people participated in the Democratic caucuses, compared with 116,000 for the GOP. 

*** Reinventing Hillary: Clinton's classy concession speech should buy her some time from some of the media vultures that are circling. The campaign has to deal with a couple of things that may be hard to control: 1) Keep Clinton staffers from talking on background (at least until New Hampshire's over). By the way, should we read much into the fact that Mark Penn was NOT with the candidate this morning but was with the press? Does the candidate want Penn around right now or not? 2) Try and tamp down expectations here in New Hampshire. Was she ahead in this state as of yesterday, and if that's the case, does that skew her expectations making second place a disappointment? A few weeks ago, we got the impression New Hampshire was already a dead heat, but a number of public polls had her ahead as of yesterday. Also, just how does the campaign pivot on message? Stick with the experience to bring change mantra, and hope that Obama makes a rookie mistake so that voters decide that experience matters more again? What about women? The fact that there was such a generational divide in her support in Iowa is something the campaign needs to avoid here.

*** Single elimination: Can either Romney or McCain survive in this race if they don't win New Hampshire? Probably not. In fact, one might say New Hampshire is a single elimination tournament for the two one-time frontrunners. Romney, in particular, can't afford to go 0-2, and McCain can't keep his media base buying into the comeback story if he doesn't produce a win. McCain was a disappointing 4th in Iowa. And he seems ready to get into a brawl with Romney but is that something either candidate wants? See below…

*** Brand equity: The one thing the two winners of Iowa have in common was their ability to create, keep, and strengthen the brands they set out to develop when this campaign began. Both Huckabee and Obama set out to change the tone of their respective primary campaigns, and while both almost got tempted to get into a brawl when things appeared darkest, the two resisted and the gamble paid off. It's a stark contrast to Clinton and Romney, the two one-time front-runners, who seemed to change their message every six weeks to respond to a new challenge or challenger.

*** Other winners and losers: The other winners from last night: Des Moines Register pollster Ann Selzer, Obama Iowa aides Paul Tewes and Steve Hildebrand, grassroots evangelicals, and Clinton deputy campaign manager Mike Henry (who famously argued that the Clinton camp should skip Iowa). Among the losers were the pro-Clinton Emily’s List (Obama won the female vote), pro-Clinton AFSCME, pro-Edwards SEIU locals (which ran those 527 ads helping the former North Carolina senator); and the Club for Growth (which inundated Iowan airwaves with ads trying to stop Huckabee and didn’t). This is the second-straight cycle in which AFSCME and SEIU -- which then backed Dean -- didn’t fare well in Iowa. And just asking: When is Club for Growth going to start actually winning some big battles? While the group can point to some recent congressional wins, Steve Laffey’s loss last year in Rhode Island (wounding Lincoln Chafee in the process) and Pat Toomey’s defeat to Arlen Specter seem to overshadow those victories. And now they can't take down Huckabee in Iowa...

*** On the trail: The game now moves to New Hampshire… Clinton has already attended a rally with her husband in Nashua and hits the New Hampshire 100 Club Dinner in Milford; Edwards already held a rally in Manchester and campaigns there and then in Portsmouth; Huckabee plays with a local musical band in Henniker; McCain stumps in Hollis, Hudson, and Nashua; Obama, as of this writing, is rallying in Portsmouth and later rallies in Concord before attending the 100 Club Dinner; Richardson also does the dinner, as well as campaign across the state; and Romney has already stumped in Portsmouth and travels to Concord and Manchester.

Countdown to New Hampshire: 4 days
Countdown to Michigan: 11 days
Countdown to Nevada and SC GOP primary: 15 days
Countdown to SC Dem primary: 22 days
Countdown to Florida: 25 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 32 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 305 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 382 days

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Comments

bill, you need to recheck your facts. do yourself that favor.
What I Believe the first problem that any candidate will have to face before any real issues that are very important to me is this------the division within this country today---this my way or the highway attitude has brought us nothing but hatred for the other party--I am guilty of it too---Senator Obama has been the only candidate consistantly talking about this during his campaign to include his speech last night.  Refreshing it may be, experience may not be, (hey look at what we have now, what experience did he bring)----the issue before any other must be the division within this country, remember "United we stand Divided we fall"?  I truly believe that if we don't get this figured out and work together to solve our problems and address our issues then we will fall.  We need to fix this division and it is extremely refreshing to hear someone addressing that most important issue facing us.  I would love the military home and fixed, I would love to have health care for everyone, I would love to have a tax system that is equal to all, I would love to have a better education system, beter pay------but before all of that can be addressed and dealt with you have to have people willing to work with each other.
Was anybody else disgusted by portions of Huckabee and McCain's speeches last night?  They both said that "negative campaigning doesn't work"... um, ok, except that Romney was down by 22 points only 2 weeks ago and last night was down by only 9.  Oh and McCain (hypocrite) has released several incredibly negative ads in NH, exactly where he made this assenine comment.  And then there's good old Huck- who said he was not going to release a negative ad, but spent his entire Sunday making it, and then showed it to the press on Monday, and then released it anyway to a few areas in Iowa yesterday.  What a liar!  

For those of you who keep saying that Romney has "flipped" or "lied", look a little closer at your own disingenuous candidate.  Romney, by the way, congratulated Huckabee last night.  Huckabee just bragged and gave not-so-suble comments about why Romney "lost".  Not very "christian-like".  Didn't Christ teach to love your enemies?  Hmmm. Fake.

By the way, the media keeps saying McCain and Thompson tied.  True by whole number percentages, but in actual numbers, Thompson beat McCain.

Congrats to Ron Paul for pulling in 10%.  I don't like him and I don't think he stands a chance nationally, but good show anyway.

PS- I was happy with the democratic side.  It's too bad Biden is out- he's a good guy.  I'd like to see him as VP candidate with Obama.  I think Edwards was exagerating his "strong second"- 8% behind Obama and only a few points (1%) in front of Hillary.  Without the 2nd choice votes, Hillary would have come in second.  I prefer Edwards to HRC, but he started to sound a little like Howard Dean in his speech...
Ahh the polls...Seems like the DMR got it right mainly because they recognized a bigger pool of likely voters. My take is that it will take a whole new direction to accurately poll this race. The interest is so high, yhe desire for change is so great, that the standard polling institutions may have to rethink the whole "what is a likely voter" question. And that argument that many people, especially younger voters, don't have landlines seems to finally be a worthwile discussion. Maybe younger people will vote. At any rate, my faith in the standard polls is severely shaken, and I doubt that there is enough time to accurately poll New Hampshire with any new paramiters. So I guess we will just have to wait and see on Tuesday. How do you poll a movement?
*** The referendum on Bush: Do you think with this message and the New Year, President Bush might change?  If he cares about a legacy, that's what he needs to do.

Thank you Iowa for voting for change.  We are in a rut, what wonderful, positive news.

Excellent speech Sen. Obama.  The amount he has grown and experienced on the campaign trail clearly shows.  A very strong candidate.

"Clinton has been the leading candidate for over 52 long weeks, tonight Barack Obama is on top.  Oh well, all good things come to an end," right?

[The Clinton campaign late last night was dismissing Obama’s victory as an eight-point win. "Judging the entire nominating process on eight percent of one state is a dubious exercise,"]
--Actually it was a 9-point over Clinton, I guess the DMR poll was again the most accurate.  Going in, it was a toss-up, and if the Clinton team had won by 1 point (even half a point), then they would be heralding victory--rightfully so.  B.H. Obama won by 9 points, and that's a lot--no margin of error.  Higher than the high expectations (7 points) were.  That's post-debate spin that I don't buy.
Glad you are all so excited about Obama winning. Didn't the DNC god Bill Clinton place 3rd in Iowa when he was running?

Obama is for change. When I am for change I look in the sofa cushions. Change for change sake is not what this country needs.
Chicken little is at it again. In august Edwards was the front runner in Iowa having been campaigning there for nearly two years. In January Obama's camp came to town a distant third. Withthe exception of a poll surge during the fall Hillary was not expected to win in Iowa. whay do we all have such short memories of real facts? Even when leading national polls she was not in front for several months.
I am not takign anyhting away from Obama's rise, but the big loser for the Democrats- even according to last weeks poll would have to be Edwards, who was touted as picking up momentum in the state he put all his effort. Sit back, relax, ther's alo t mor e politics to come.
so i did read it correctly,  Hillary Clinton won the 2nd most delegates. The voting process is so archaic. And of course the popular vote really is just a bunch of numbers for TV.  
Ace, you need to recheck yours, Hillary was 2nd in delegates awarded last night in iowa, check it out.  Popular votes mean nothing in our elections, what counts is how many delegates did you receive.
Let us not forget....one state does not a president (nor a nominee) elect.  We're working very hard here in NH to make sure Hillary wins...that's how I'm spending my time for the next four days.  Come join me!
Congratulations to Barack Obama on his win.  It was a great and blessed day.

He has shown to all the wide categories of independents, democrats and republicans that he brought in.  He brought in women, youth and first time voters.

It is a blessing.  

Predictions I have made have came true.  Van, don't start saying people can't be nasty to you when you have been nasty to them. You have responded in kind and nasty to others with name calling.  I have had so many great positive calls and we are so proud of the new change and new direction that the country is ready to go in.  I also give so many great things to Ann Seltzer.  SHE IS A TRUE WOMAN LEADER who had the FACTS, TRENDS AND RESEARCH that shows she knows more of what she is talking about than pundits like Yepsen, Rove, and others who believe in status quo.

It is a great day.  The first state of Americans have spoken.  New Hampshire is next.  I think the winning of Obama will continue.  It is a great day.
Another potential big winner - Mayor Bloomberg
Young voters obviously aren't facing the issues that more mature voters are dealing with; therefore Obama/Oprah appeals to them....let's not get so hasty in our predictions. Things will change after the OBama/Oprah Barrage fizzles out.  Then the real candidates will be heard.  Yes, change is needed, but Obama is not the answer.  Bush certainly wasn't the answer.  I pity the new president being saddled with
Bush's mistakes....but I will pray for her!
Sierra and Einloth I never consider Florida a southern state as it is largely populated by snowbirds. As for the rest of the southern states they voted democrat from the Civil War until LBJ signed the civil rights bill  out of hatred for Lincoln. When LBJ signed the civil rights bill he said "the solid south just moved over into the republican column" and he was correct. I mentioned before that I live in the Armed Forces Retirement Home and have friends from all over the country, just this morning I heard one of my southern friends express surprise that white people voted for Obama. I hope I am wrong but racial prejudice isn't solely a product of the south.
[Another potential big winner - Mayor Bloomberg
Steve, Parkton, Md]
--Steve, why?  It has been my belief that either an Obama, Huckabee or Giuliai--based on loyalty--win would preclude a Bloomberg run.  Is he a winner, because now he won't have to spend his large sum of money?  I just kidding about that, but I am curious about your interesting statement.
To those thinking this is the launch pad for Obama consider the past results of the DNC caucus:

2004 - Kerry
2000 - Gore
1996 - No Caucus
1992 - Harkin
1988 - Gephart
1984 - Mondale
1980 - Carter
1976 - Uncommitted (Carter was 2nd)
1972 - Uncommitted (Muskie was 2nd)

36 years, no one went on to become president that won in Iowa. Might give you 1996 because there was no caucus due to the fact Clinton was seeking a second term.

An Iowa win or loss means squat, it is just first.

Of course today, the day after the 1st Caucus, all of the political junkies ( us) were going to be right on it.. It was inevitable. Those of us who follow every nuance know that on the dem side its between clinton and Obama. he will win a few and she will win a few. Its unlikley Edwards will win any...I hope that when the dust settles everyone will choose their candidates wisely and not jump on any bandwagons. Its a victory that in a swing state such as Iowa the independents chose to vote democrat... This is what we should focus on....
Glad you are all so excited about Obama winning. Didn't the DNC god Bill Clinton place 3rd in Iowa when he was running?

Obama is for change. When I am for change I look in the sofa cushions. Change for change sake is not what this country needs.

Bill Sweetsir (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 11:32 AM)

There is a huge difference in coming in 3rd in Iowa when you didn't even campaign there (which is what Bill Clinton did), and coming in 3rd in Iowa after you have campaigned there for a year (which is what Hillary Clinton did).

And about change not being what the country needs, it appears that the voters of Iowa disagree with you.
Young voters obviously aren't facing the issues that more mature voters are dealing with...

h.simmons (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 11:45 AM)

And may I ask how you come to that conclusion? It seems to me that the younger voters are inheriting this world as much as - if not more than - the "mature" voters you talk about (whatever that means).
I think the big story from last night isn't that a black man won in a white state, or that a unknown, unfunded 'hick' won against the republican establishment, but more that the democrats caucused in a percentage three times higher than in 2004, and how more democrats caucused than the Republicans by more than two to one last night.  Not to mention all of the independents who decided to caucus with the Democrats, and the at least 3% to maybe 5% of Republicans who through their lot in with Democrats last night because they are so disgusted with their own party, and the fact that the much maligned "youth vote" whom everyone says never shows up, indeed showed up last night in record numbers.  That is the real headline from last night, coupled with the evidence that Democratic Party nationwide is out fundraising the Republican party by a margin of more than two to one, exactly the opposite of all previous election cycles.  This shows you where all the enthusiasm in this country is going.  How sick people are of the Republican Party.  And when you look at the fact that while Obama won last night, technically, in one state out of 50, the main point is that if you ask just about any Democrat who will vote in November, while they may have their preference, they would really not be terribly upset to see almost any one of the Democrats running in the White House (and some prominent republicans privately admit this as well), as opposed to all the Republicans put together cannot poll as well in their own party as none of the above.
H. Simmons,
That's right: start bashing the kids.  One might suggest that the older generation has had their shot and unless I'm mistaken, things are in a mess. Why should we listen to the ones who have gotten us into this?  "Experience" at screwing things up is not experience we need.
I just want to say to anyone who thinks that Barack Obama would not win in the south based on his race - I am from Birmingham Alabama - yes, folks, the statues of waterhoses and dogs and the stories of little girls killed in a church bombing are forever in the hearts, minds and everyday lives of all of us here. And to let you know, even in this pivotal place in America's Civil Rights movement, we have an AWESOME mayor of Birmingham who is African-American. We also have a white christian governor who calls for prayer and recognizes their answers. Anyone who thinks that the south is a place of racial intollerance has not lived here. I am a white woman whose family is from this area, grew up outside of Atlanta and have been back in Birmingham for thirteen years and I am here to tell you that although the stigma is that the south is intollerant of racial equality, the reality is that we have progressed farther than we are given credit for.

Having said that, I will say that I do think that Barack Obama is a good man with excellent ideals and dreams for this country, however, I do not think it is his time. I don't agree with his plans of action on the issues most important to me. Not because of the color of his skin or even his family's heritage, but rather his personal decisions on what direction to take this country; in particular with regards to our military and the funding for his domestic approach.
Yes, Obama is a dreamer.  Yet this dreamer has awakened this bright morning to a nation ready to listen.  To me that is a miracle.
Congrats to Obama.  He reached out, and people responded.  Whatever my personal preferences regarding Obama as a candidate, I am very happy to see so many people show up for what is a long and (in some precincts at least) chaotic process.  

Again, job well done.  
Glad you are all so excited about Obama winning. Didn't the DNC god Bill Clinton place 3rd in Iowa when he was running?

Bill Sweetsir (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 11:32 AM)

Clinton conceded Iowa, as did all of the other candidates in 1992, because Senator Harkin was seeking the nomination.

I feel like I have said this 100 times...
And so the most interesting presidential election ever is officially underway....and what a start. Two candidates from outside their party's mainstream roll to victory. This tells me that people of both parties have had it with politics as usual. A couple of observations:

- On the Democratic side, Obama's win in Iowa tells me that people just don't trust Hillary. With her "experience" edge, she should have won, all things being equal. But people seem to view her as not only untrustworthy, but also representing politics of the past. The whole "change" thing will never work for her.

- On the Republican side, Huckabee's win was a result of people's disdain for negative campaigning. Frankly, I don't see Huckabee as electable on a national level, since he is really viewed as a social conservative and not a fiscal one. When all is said and done, either McCain or Guiliani will be nominated.

I hope that Obama keeps his campaign above board and does not get in the gutter with Hillary. If he can do that, then he will likely be handed the keys to the White House in January.
AMEN to Kathryn in B'ham. Too many folks in the US have bought the racist redneck Southerner stereotype, courteously supplied by Hollywood and the national media. If the South is so incredibly racist, why on earth are the most popular and powerful cities for African Americans all located down here? And why do so many Southern cities have black mayors? Chiefs of police (Orlando's is black AND female)? I'm not saying we still don't have a long way to go, but the South is not the inbred backwater so many of you foolishly believe it to be.



Sierra and Einloth I never consider Florida a southern state as it is largely populated by snowbirds.
Rufus Gibbons, DC

Clearly, you haven't spent much time in Florida, which can be neatly divided into three regions: North Florida is about as red as it can get, from Pensacola to Jax and south to Gainesville. This is (with the exception of Tallahassee) mostly farm country and generally, pretty conservative both politically and morally. Central Florida, aka the "I-4 Corridor" from Daytona Beach, through Orlando, and down to Tampa, is purple. Depending on who you talk to, you've got everything from die-hard progressive to die-hard conservative, and they vote all over the map. South Florida is a strange split: more Republican on the Gulf Coast (Sarasota, after all, spawned Katherine Harris), more Dem on the Gold Coast--where you'd find most of your stereotypical snowbirds and retirees.

All that being said, the Democratic party was foolish to strip Florida's delegates. Florida's primary got moved up because its REPUBLICAN state legislature voted to do so. So now the fourth most populous state in the US has NO VOICE at the Democratic convention. Way to fall for it, idjits.
Hillary has a serious problem: In Iowa, she began by railing her "experience matters" mantra into the ground. When that didn't get her anywhere and people started paying attention to Obama's "we need a new direction--a change in the way Washington does business" talk, she changed her tune to be "I am most capable from day 1 to bring change to Washington." That didn't stick because Obama beat her to it. What did Hillary do? She went back to stumping about her experience as First Lady and as a Senator. Still didn't work based on last night's results.

Now that the numbers have been broken down to show that she didn't win with women, didn't win with people under 45, and only won the 60+ crowd, she and Mark Penn are planning their next strategy on how to get people to flock back to her.

Barack Obama and even John Edwards did it the same way. They stuck to their original message and it worked for them. They never waivered. They never became unhinged. They stayed on point and it served both, although Obama better, well.

You can't run a campaign based on what some poll says. You can't run a campaign based on which way the wind is blowing. You run a campaign with a base message that people can attach themselves to. Both Obama and Edwards have done this with success. Success that I believe will continue in New Hampshire early next week and even beyond since Hillary will likely be looking for yet another message a week from now.
Kathryn in Bham:  I too have lived in the south (in the past), for 20 years and I think that stereotypes about racial attitudes are just plain foolish.  People everywhere hunger for authentic leadership and Barack can provide this.  

I think that Barack Obama could win in the south, with a coalition of voters (young, black, urban professionals, women...oh heck, thinking people from all walks of life - just like anywhere else).  The difference that a candidate like Barack Obama could make, is that the excitement he engenders would cause a surge in voter turn-out (not unlike what we saw in Iowa last night) and this enthusiasm could provide the model for a winning candidacy.

I think that the inspirational candidacy of Barack Obama could provide an inroad to victory in the south that has yet to be appreciated.  Kathryn, I urge you to take another look at this unique candidate who truly represents the spirit of what makes this nation great.  He really could blur the line between red states and blue states and truly be a president for all of the United States.  I look forward to it.
Obama '08
Young voters obviously aren't facing the issues that more mature voters are dealing with; therefore Obama/Oprah appeals to them....let's not get so hasty in our predictions. Things will change after the OBama/Oprah Barrage fizzles out.  Then the real candidates will be heard.  Yes, change is needed, but Obama is not the answer.  Bush certainly wasn't the answer.  I pity the new president being saddled with
Bush's mistakes....but I will pray for her!

h.simmons (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 11:45 AM)

----------

Young people are tired of the old people using the same old rhetoric, the same old ideals, and the same old sabre-rattling to accomplish jack-s**t. People of Bush's, Cheney's, even Clinton's generation have f--ked the place up so much and made things so bad for those of us coming of age today and tomorrow that we're ready to take charge and throw the bums out. Iowans said "NO" to the continued "everyone but the people shall lead" approach to Washington politics. We're tired of the lobbyists, the special interests, the corporations, and everyone else f--king us all in the back end where we have $100 barrels of oil, $3/gallon gas, we can't afford to eat, we can't afford to go to college, we can't afford to heat our homes, hell we can't afford the home themselves! Clinton and every Republican candidate (Huckabee sounds nice, but he just has this snake oil salesman feel to him) wants to keep the status quo. And why not? They and their friends have made millions off the backs of hard working Americans like those that voted with their hearts and souls last night in Iowa and have finally said "ENOUGH!" I think this will continue. It must continue or America will continue down this slope we're presently on.


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