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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



The battle for New Hampshire

Posted: Saturday, January 05, 2008 10:45 AM by Domenico Montanaro



Per a 7NEWS/Suffolk University tracking poll released yesterday, "Romney has taken back the lead from John McCain in the Republican Primary, while Hillary Clinton maintains her lead over Iowa Caucus Democratic winner Barack Obama.” The Republican numbers: Romney 29, McCain 25, Huckabee 13, Giuliani 9, Paul 8, Thompson 2, Hunter 1. Twelve percent were undecided. The Democratic numbers: Clinton 37, Obama 25, Edwards 15, Richardson 4, Biden 2, Kucinich 1. Twelve percent were undecided.

According to Suffolk's analysis: "Although Clinton led most categories, Obama led Clinton 33 percent-to-30 percent among young independent voters, the same demographic that propelled him to victory in Iowa. The question now becomes: Can Clinton sustain her current advantage across the board."

The Washington Post says Obama “brought his surging presidential campaign to New Hampshire on Friday, looking to put himself in control of the Democratic race with a victory here Tuesday, while Republican Mitt Romney sought to head off a potentially crippling loss by launching a fresh attack on the revived candidacy of John McCain… [W]hile Huckabee will probably be content to look ahead to the Jan. 19 GOP primary in South Carolina to build on his Iowa victory and to allow McCain and Romney to bloody each other in New Hampshire in the meantime, the Democratic contest here will be a critical test for Obama. If the senator from Illinois can defeat Clinton here, he could potentially erase doubts about his viability among voters in subsequent contests and seize the front-runner's mantle. Clinton's camp, fearing the impact of back-to-back defeats, moved quickly to renew attacks on Obama's experience Friday.”

The Boston Globe: "Clinton, Romney step up attacks."

The Washington Post wonders if the compressed nominating calendar will make the bounce from Iowa even larger. “Starting with the Iowa caucuses, 31 states will vote over 33 days for the nominee of one or both parties, compared with just nine states that voted in the equivalent period eight years ago. The furious pace of contests this year will be so intense that it could make momentum king and increase the challenge exponentially for … Clinton and … Romney as they try to shrug off defeats in Iowa and regroup for New Hampshire's primary on Tuesday. That proves a bitter irony for both camps, which had built their strategies around the assumption that they would exploit the compressed schedule to roll over other candidates before anyone had a chance to catch up.”

The Union Leader previews tonight’s debates. Kucinich, Gravel and Hunter were not invited to attend.

Secretary of State Bill Gardner predicts a half-million people turnout to the polls Tuesday: 260,000 on Dem side; 240,000 for Republicans. Of the undeclareds, he thinks about 90,000 will vote Democratic and 60,000 will vote Republican. And that 50,000 will register that day. The record turnout is 396,000 set in 2000.

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I am 72 years old, and have nothing better to do than listen to all of the candidates speak.  Four years ago when I heard Barak Obama speak, I called my grandson in to here what he had to say.  It was a very inspiring speach.  I told my grandson that he would be President someday.  Having said that I don't believe this is the right time for him.  I do believe it is a very important time in our country and we desperatly need Hillary Clinton to come in and know what to do to change George Bushes policies.
Barac attracts the young people who have not lived through some hard times, even tho (unfortunatly) they are the ones we send off to fight in our wars, I don't believe they will take voting very seriously come November.
I think they get caught up in the moment like a rally for a football game.  He makes a pretty speach and he excites the crowds, but to me Hillary has the answers to make the changes  I also think the republicans that came out for Obama will not vote for him either in November.  I believe the deck was staked to knock down Hillary. I would like to encourage all the young people and others to listen to all the speeches and carefully compare them before voting.  I say to you that you will not find a better plan than Hillary's. I don't know her personally, but I know people who do and any one that knows her says she is the real deal.  Real change come from a keen eye, a good grasp of the issues facing America, working across the isle with people who may not share your views, and knowing when to get tough and hold your ground.
I think nobody will bring change, trust and expierance like Hillary Clinton.
Thank you
Shirley
John Edwards Beats Hillary Clinton and MSM can't give him the press he so deserves!! that's disgusting!!!
he didn't get your precious press in iowa either and he still beat out clinton......and in NH he will leave her in his dust again! GO JOHN EDWARDS!!!!
Again responsible voters must step forward and tell America, Sending a Washington self serving paper hanger to be the next President is a grave mistake.

The babble and conjecture HRC has present is a slight of words and fact.

Americans have from past heard all the slogans, stump promises, I will change, I will make, I will reform, and the list is endless. Be it of fact, scandal, no in office experience, conjecture of voting, argumentative to all of what the other party attempts, issues false statements, knowingly takes monies from felons, and this list is also endless. America is always strangled by the self serving paper hangers, as we see it by this failed Congress.

Being disgusted that now the laws have been twisted, national land and air defense open to invasion, millions of non Americans roaming our streets and more invade per day, and this list is also endless.

Seeing the Washington self serving paper hangers past and present performance is failure, we use the failures as a ruler to electing this next President.
Why does your news network continually rule out Edwards when he came in second not Hillary? Do you measure candidates only by money which means you buy into the corrupt PAC process? Why do you ignore all the people who voted for Edwards?
It's looking like Hillary has a pretty good chance of winning in New Hampshire.  I think if she stays on message and continues emphasizing her proposals for change she'll do well.  Just because Obama is a 'fresh face' doesn't make him uniquely more qualified to lead the country.  Hillary has plenty of good ideas and vision for America's future.  

Go Hillary!

Well, Mr Gardner better get ready for another record turnout.As evidenced by the breakdown of the voting block's in Iowa, people from All walks of life are getting behind Barack Obama. For anyone independently watching campaign event's & such(100 club dinner last night), America is behind Barack Obama  & his message.Young, old, middle age, all races are sick & tired of Washington getting Nothing done. I would venture to predict, that when Congress comes back to town, that everyone will see a change in what they may be able to accomplish.Politicians see this & they know, they better get off there Butt's & start trying faithfully to navigate America's problem's, because if they don't, the Voter's are ready to Replace anyone that will not Compromise.Bet the farm on it!!!!
I DON'T THINK PEOPLE HAVE REALLY TAKEN THE TIME TO
LOOK AT THE OUTCOME OF IOWA.  THE ACTUAL DELEGATE
COUNT WENT OBAMA-16 CLINTON-15 EDWARDS-14-SO SPIN
EDWARDS AS YOU WILL.  SECOND PLACE WENT TO HILL.
FORMER SENATOR EDWARDS LIKES TO SAY HE WILL FIGHT
ME EVERYDAY AS PRESIDENT-WELL HE QUIT FIGHTING FOR
ALL OF US WHEN HE QUIT THE SENATE FOUR YEARS AGO
AND GAVE HIS SEAT TO A REPUBLICAN.  SO IF HE DECIDED
TO CUT AND RUN FOUR YEARS AGO WHY SHOULD WE THINK
HE WOULD STAND FOR ANYTHING NOW.  THOSE DEMS. THAT
WENT FOR EDWARDS DECRIBED THEMSELVES AS CONSERVATIVE
SO IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THEY WOULD HAVE CAST THEIR
VOTE FOR THE MORE LIBERAL LEANING SENATOR OBAMA. I
GUESS THEY MISTOOK MR. EDWARDS ANGER AS CONSERVATIVE
AFTER ALL WE HAVE SEEN THE ANGRY SMIRK FROM THE
CONSERVATIVE MR DICK CHENEY SO LONG THAT THE TWO ARE
NOW VIEWED AS THE SAME.
I have watched the manipulation of viewers in many instances by the television media. Name calling candidates, and since when is promoting ones (newscasters) opinion reporting news? This article is well written and seems fare in content.

Just for example, I’ve watched “Hard Ball Chris” for a long time, yet I must say I was very disappointed at his reference to Mr. Romney as “Mr. Slick,” not once but several times. There is no foundation for that childish remark. I don’t say that as a Romney supporter, I say that as one of the MAJORITY of Americans who does want “CHANGE”; not just in “Washington Politics,” but CHANGE in the “Media manipulation of politics.” It causes one to wonder, are the news casters making a little money on the side supporting certain positions? This type of behavior is clearly not limited to politicians!

“Mr. Slick”? After viewing politicians on both sides of the isle, anyone with a brain that can analyze the facts, each politician’s history, and that can make a decision for themselves, knows there are many others that have earned the “Mr. or Mrs. Slick” label! Romney would be at the end of that line, if there at all.

I’m an independent. On my score card so far there isn’t a qualified Democrat candidate. You have one with a history mired in dishonesty and a “life long politician.” Among all the other past issues, when she left the White House last time she and the original “Mr. Slick” ripped off how many items out of the White House? What will be taken if they’re given another chance? Or you have one that talks about change that doesn’t have near the experience to deal with the crises that are before us; being a popular “smooth talker” only gets you so far. The closest would be Edwards I believe he is sincere and would give it his best. He may be the best choice of the Democrats, but not the best choice for president.

Huckabee, a “paid” professional preacher gone politician with a gift to gab, who has belittled other people’s religions and beliefs, run his own negative ads with clearly proven distortion of historical facts, then cries foul when his opponents show his past record for comparison in ads! Does he really expect us to believe that his abilities as a smooth “tawlk-n nice guy” are going to help him call terrorists to repentance? Or that his past careers (livelihood) of living off others donations to God, or living off his constituents as Governor of Arkansas gives him the  clear understanding of the real Business world to correct the  National economy?

Romney has a proven history of successful conservative business practices; those that have worked with him or hired him have nothing but good to say about him and his abilities. When he was Governor of Massachusetts he carried out the will of the majority of the people even if it was contrary to his views. “That by definition is representing your constituents.” When the Olympic Games were in trouble he was called in; nobody can argue that he did anything but a magnificent job. He’s a tough negotiator. He has demonstrated his care and concern for people and given back a lot. He has refused payment or benefits beyond what he felt were right. (Show me anybody running for office with that in their history). He has used much of his own money to run for office, yet he is condemned for it? Is it jealousy? He clearly believes in God, and accepts Jesus as his savior, and respects the religious beliefs of others.  He has demonstrated good character in many ways. Obvious to all would be that his opponent (who thinks he has the right to define who is a Christian) mocked Romney’s religion, and Romney who really wants to serve the people as President, held his ground and would not deny his beliefs; verses Huck’s “I want to be  ‘Mr. President’ therefore I dictate what a Christian is.” He needs to reread the constitution and the Bible.  

 
SHIRLEY FROM LOWELL ARKANSAS      DID YOU KNOW SHE CALLED YOU A HICK WHEN SHE FIRST CAME TO ARKANSAS WITH PERVERTED BILL.  DID YOU KNOW BILL TOLD JENNIFER FLOWERS SHE HAD MORE WOMEN THAT HIM, IF THAT PART APPEALS TO YOU FINE.  DID YOU KNOW SHE TOOK HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF DRUG MONEY FROM BILL S PARDONS, DID YOU KNOW SHE RENTED THE LINCOLN BEDROOM TO A DRUG DEALER, DID YOU KNOW SHE TRASHED THE WHITEHOUSE AND STOLE THE FURNITURE, DID YOU KNOW SHE REFERS TO JEWS WITH FU--KING JEW BAS-TA-RD, AS SHE DID PAUL FRAY, AND LARRY PATTERSON, A BODYGUARD, AND CAMPAIGN MANAGER.  YEAH SHE S THE REAL DEAL AND YOU WANT THIS TRASH IN THE WHITEHOSE AGAIN.  WOULD YOU STAY WITH A MAN THAT ASSUALTED A YOUNG INTERN WITH A CIGAR, SHE WAS CHELESEA S AGE POOR GIRL  READ NOMOREHILLY.COM AND APOLIGIZE FOR YOUR POST AND CLINTONS SCANDALS AND SEE 61 DEATHS ASSOCIATED TO THEM.
SHIRLEY FROM LOWELL ARKANSAS      DID YOU KNOW SHE CALLED YOU A HICK WHEN SHE FIRST CAME TO ARKANSAS WITH PERVERTED BILL.  DID YOU KNOW BILL TOLD JENNIFER FLOWERS SHE HAD MORE WOMEN THAT HIM, IF THAT PART APPEALS TO YOU FINE.  DID YOU KNOW SHE TOOK HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF DRUG MONEY FROM BILL S PARDONS, DID YOU KNOW SHE RENTED THE LINCOLN BEDROOM TO A DRUG DEALER, DID YOU KNOW SHE TRASHED THE WHITEHOUSE AND STOLE THE FURNITURE, DID YOU KNOW SHE REFERS TO JEWS WITH FU--KING JEW BAS-TA-RD, AS SHE DID PAUL FRAY, AND LARRY PATTERSON, A BODYGUARD, AND CAMPAIGN MANAGER.  YEAH SHE S THE REAL DEAL AND YOU WANT THIS TRASH IN THE WHITEHOSE AGAIN.  WOULD YOU STAY WITH A MAN THAT ASSUALTED A YOUNG INTERN WITH A CIGAR, SHE WAS CHELESEA S AGE POOR GIRL  READ NOMOREHILLY.COM AND APOLIGIZE FOR YOUR POST AND CLINTONS SCANDALS AND SEE 61 DEATHS ASSOCIATED TO THEM.
HRC is a open blaintant sick excuse for a President! Milti "FACTS" resound as to past and present show no leadership, Where is a leader ever had so much immoral scandal, involvement with known felons, negative conjecture for a voting record, self serving personal agenda! And this list is endless.  

America will no longer support a self serving paper hanger as the next President AND YOU FAIL YOURSELF IF YOUR SUPPORTING HRC!

HRC is a path of lies, socialist agenda, misrepresented voting, continued coat tail hanging, HRC is a puppet and the puppet master is bill Clinton and carville!

America will vote to stop sending a Washington self serving paper hanger to be the next President.

Change  ""YES""  Clinton lives in the past, and we see what the past has done to this nation!!!!
AMEN    THROW OUT THE DOG
TODD THE ONLY REASON  SHE IS RUNNING IS BECAUSE SHE NEEDS SOME NEW FURNITURE   READ CLINTONS SCANDALS.COM AND PARDONS.COM  AND NOMOREHILLARY.COM  AND GO TO YOUR COMPUTER AND APOLIGIZE FOR YOUR POSTS
Dear David.
You really need an education.
Does any one with any sense at all believe this right wing hog wash?

Dave Cartwright,
You are soooo right about Chriss Mathews.
He wants to make news not report it.
And he is so rude, why would anyone want to go on his show?

Cynthia in Rogers.
You are right on!!!

Shirley.  
David Anders you are a pig to say such disgusting things. Please don't post here anymore unless you have something constructive to say. Nobody wants to read your trash.

Where are the moderators of this forum? Why aren't they doing their job?
The Clintons are old, yesterday's news.

Time to move on.

A vote for Hillary is a vote for a Republican in the White House in 2009.

In a 94% white state, Obama CLEANED up!  young voters, independents, women, 1st time caucusers, moderate Republicans.

National polls shows Obama beating Romney and Guiliani by >10 % points!

So...who is the most electible?
Boy if only the secret service could put there two cents in we would know a lot about some of our canadates...to bad its a secret.
HEY TARELI  YOU MUST BE PLAYING THE NEW DEMOCRAT GAME  HIDE THE CIGAR   INVENTED BY YOUR ROCKSTAR BILL CLINTON

AND SHIRLEY I HAVE A MASTERS DEGREE IN EXPOSING PERVERTS, PEOPLE TAKING DRUG MONEY FOR PARDONS, ALLEGED LESBIANS RUNNING FOR OFFICE, AND RACISTS CALLING JEWS MOTHER FU--CK-ING BA--STARDS  WANT MORE I HAVE PAGES
Folks,

John McCain is the man to lead this country.

Mitt Romney did little or nothing in Massachusetts. Dave, can you educate me on his super accomplishments. He did so well that they now have a Democrat governor- strange isn't it?
And the Olympics- also Dave, please educate me. They weren't going to have the games that year? Are you aware how many folks Mitt hired to help on the project; or the fact that the Olympics were already turning around prior to his getting there. Google and do your homework!
And finally, his ( Mitt 's ) business acumen. What company has he led? He never cites it! Why, because as a venture capitalist you buy companies, gut them for profit, and resell them. Dis this guy ever run a GE, or an IBM?
Mitt fans, please. He lacks the experience, but most importantly the courage of conviction. He now is all about change- why? Because that was the message out of Iowa- this guy is a moving target, and he is desperate. What a great Commander in Chief that would be. He'd have to check the polls before a decision.
Folks, please go to the polls and vote for Senator McCain. He appreciates your support, and will lead form day one!
Dave, continue your work as a Mitt paid consultant, but be prepared to be disappointed. It's the Mitt way!


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