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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



Initial takeaway: Obama gets to play frontrunner

Posted: Saturday, January 05, 2008 10:40 PM by Chuck Todd

From NBC's Chuck Todd
The focus on this debate for so many in New Hampshire and the media was twofold -- how would Obama handle being the frontrunner and how would Clinton handle be the challenger. Well, thanks to a subdued format, Obama seemed to pass his test with flying colors. He got to look in command (telling Edwards, politely, when it was his turn to speak); he defended himself against Clinton by lecturing her tone and then got to look like the "normal" one by letting the moderator know who won the 'Skins game.

I'm not sure David Axelrod could have scripted this debate better if he did it himself.

Clinton as challenger? Well, she was dealt a real bodyblow when Edwards decided to defend Obama from the Clinton attack early on in the debate; that exchange will be the one played over and over again, and it's not good for Clinton.

She recovered a bit in the second half of the debate; she warmed up with the "my feelings are hurt" line and she made one of her most effective contrasts against Edwards and Obama on the issue of change. But the damage from that first exchange and the fact that Richardson made attacking each other personally a problem seemed to limit Clinton's rhetorical mobility.

Edwards, btw, had a very good night; he got to look a bit more positive and a little less angry by being the guy who defended Obama. His strategy seemed to be to go for the political kill on Clinton, thinking that he'll have a better chance beating Obama in a one-on-one than beating Clinton. Not sure I agree with him on this strategy but it's clearly his campaign's strategy.

Richardson obviously benefitted from the shrunken field; he got off some of the better lines of the night and probably did himself some good; just not sure who he will woo over to his side since the independents seem so enamored right now with Obama. Still, Richardson showed he could have done well if the formats had been this low-key and the field this small.

Still, the story of this debate is the gang-up on Clinton. It's interesting, Clinton may now be the candidate who needs to get Obama in a one-on-one; Edwards and Richardson are now distractions and are complicating her ability to go after Obama; Obama, meanwhile, needs the extra candidates. Amazing how things change; a few weeks ago, the larger field seemed to benefit Clinton more than Obama. This is how fast things can change in this era of the 24/7 news cycle. Toss in the compressed calendar and realize things could either change quickly again or end a lot sooner than any of us realized.

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I was surprised at the visible display of anger by clinton, she attacked 1st and then couldn't handle the counter-attack, if you can't take it, don't dish it, I was impressed with edwards performance but still voting for obama
Hillary did well tonight! I am glad!
Hillary is going to get hit hard on her "we need to deal in reality" comment.

She basically just stated that those supporting a campaign for change are ignornat and naive. Voters don't like candidates who look down on them.
She definitely lost it.  If the media decides to run that clip, then it is bad news.  

Obama seemed to benefit from the fact that Richardson keep throwing out JFK as a model of how inspiration can be important.

I found Obama's comments about the Clinton Administration doing nothing to build lasting majority or build the party.  I think Obama talking about the importance of building a larger tent really resonates with Dems and Independents.
Wow!  Schrillary is not a good loser.  Her breakdown is filled with so much ANGER!
Chuck - I agree things change fast. Who a few weeks ago was talking about New Hampshire as a potential must-win for Clinton? And I think your analysis about the switched benefits of a one-on-one is correct.

Oh, wait, my mistake. I guess I have it wrong. I just heard the Clinton camp thinks she had a great night and Obama looked weak. Who knew?
Just how shallow are you guys anyway? This is political analysis? Well, at least Matthews has the night off!
Clinton lost her cool... It is all about her.. "I deliver change, blah, blah, ..."  She doesn't get it.  Change is about the American people, not one individual.  Barack, John, and Bill all have it right...

Clinton shouted back at Edwards... She is the status quo... As a whole, she did not look Presidential.
In board rooms and meeting rooms across America, women who sit by, docile, while the man three seats down co-opts her hard work and brilliant ideas, lose credit for their work, promotions, pay and recognition.  It's something we have had to learn the hard way...toot your own horn, nobody else will do it for you!  Hillary came back exactly as she needed to to own her experience, her talent and years of hard work...BRAVO.  Rhetoric and inspiration don't necessarily lead anywhere...there has to be a solid plan of action behind the words.  Obama doesn't have what it takes to lead this country, he's just trying to co-opt the other candidates momentum.  He should sit back and listen for awhile.
i think the dems did OK. Though the notion of experience is highly being skewed by the media. 90% of the presidents agenda is set on circumstances and all will make mistakes the question is will they get it right on the critical issues. Bush led us to Iraq, Bill Clinton when presented with the NIE that the Rwanda Genocide was about to happen he did nothing but yet intervened in Bosnia. I think that judgement and passion are key as well.
If it wasn't for George Stephanopolous' loyalty to the Clintons, then he would have really focused on Hillary's awkward moment.... She looked mean.  Not a very good challenger.

George, let it go... The Clintons are the past... No one wants to go back to the scandals of the '90's.  

Oh, and Hillary played the gender card... HARD...

She basically said, "If for no other reason, then vote for me because I am a woman".  WEAK... Barack stayed above the fray... Good for him.  
As long as Clinton tries to represent herself as the "change" candidate, no one will believe her.  She should stick with the experience line and hope no one remembers that along with the good experiences came bitter acrimony with one half of the country.

The phrase "dynasty" and "Clinton fatigue" have been showing up more and more.  People just don't want a dynasty or Bush/Clinton/Bush/Clinton.  They want a chance to put aside the divisiveness of the past two administrations.  Obama or Edwards represent that chance.  Clinton just does not.

Many believe we are at a crossroads and do not have the time to squander on fighting old battles from the 90's.  We need to move on global warming and our global standing.  We need to move on repairing our economy and our military.  Mostly we need to repair the division in the political landscape.
Where is Keith Olbermann when we need him?
Obama held his ground, and Edwards landed a zinger on Clinton with that status-quo-attacks line.  Overall a pretty lackluster debate as far as its effect on poll numbers and perceptions, imo.  Anyone else notice Hillary get a bit too angry after Edwards pushed her buttons?  Presidents have to be calm and collected...
Once again, Obama seems to float above the fighting in the "pit".  Is it just me, or is it because he is always  looking above and beyond to the BIG PICTURE?
Chuck, you're so wrong. Look the people who hate Clinton will hate it when she raises her voice and defends herself. But this is not Iowa! Her defense was presidential in my opinion. I'm a voter and I didn't know who I was going to support. Now, I'm in her corner. I didn't realize the change she has helped create. I like Obama in eight years or as her VP just not prez, not now.
I liked the debate more than the others, it was very substantive. I am so put off by Hillary Clinton's attacks on Obama, though. I am not sure what the real benefit of that is (other than scoring cheap political points). I would have preferred had she told us what were the bills Obama voted for that she DISAGREED with so that I would know better how she is different. I liked the way Edwards and Obama were able to contrast from each other. She just came across as wanting to be mean.
Edwards did best, Obama second, Clinton third, then Richardson.
Do you think Edwards would go for being the running mate to Obama
Wow!  Senator Obama really shined in this debate.  He was articulate and he defended himself well against the malicious attack-machine that is Hillary Clinton.  Edwards also did well....and Richardson was funny.  Overall,  I think this debate helped solidify Obama's lead and will cause a bump for Richardson and Edwards and a drop for Clinton.  Just my thoughts.
I thought this was Hillary's best debate. She was warm and engaging and appeared to know stuff (at least as much as Joe Biden - who will be sorely missed!).

I'm a diehard Obama guy, but I thought Hillary was great being herself. She should really get rid of her senior campaign team if she wants to win this thing.
Clinton looked more prepared and competent and THAT is what this contry needs. RHETORIC will only go so far. I like Obama, but  really people, WHAT HAS HE DONE? He's all talk, where is the substance. DONT VOTE BASED ON LIKE....We already had 8 years of that!!!!!!!!!!

I am reminded of a blog I read:


Only in politics is inexperience ever viewed as a selling point. With all due respect for fresh blood, imagine interviewing for any even semi-senior job, confidently informing the boss that you've never done anything like this before; don't have a very high opinion of how it's been done before; don't have many relationships with the people who have been doing it for years and with whom you will be working if you get the job; know, of course, about the big problems you'd face if hired but can't yet say exactly what you'd do about them ...but you're full of hope!

Moreover, the fantasy, like Hollywood love stories that end when the groom kisses the bride, ignores what happens after the election. Let's face it: Even Mr. Smith went to Washington. Once elected, guess whom the perfect paragon of purity, Obama or anyone else, would have to deal with to make good on any of his promises: Washington insiders. And guess what processes he would have to navigate to do so: Washington legislation, regulation, stagnation, ego inflation.
But if you're really bold and really bright and really, really, really well-intentioned, not knowing your way around that stuff can't, like, screw up your presidency, can it?

Ask Jimmy Carter. Ask the Clintons - who were, granted, never anyone's idea of squeaky clean, but did sweep in with more policy-initiative droit de seigneur than savoir-faire and paid heavily for it -- as did anyone who liked that universal-health-care idea. Most of you probably aren't speaking to George W. Bush, but ask someone to ask him whether a little first-hand knowledge of foreign policy mightn't have come in handy.

Third and worst, the rescue fantasy encourages the silly fiction that the main reason that big, serious, long-standing problems don't get solved is because nobody in power really wants to solve them. Nonsense. Of course, there are plenty of lazy and/or stupid and/or corrupt politicians whose main interest is their own advancement while in office, and their own enrichment once out. But there are plenty who aren't like that. And even if you somehow removed all the former, and were left with a political roster comprised solely of genuine visionaries and luminaries, you'd find that, lo and behold, a lot of this stuff is actually hard. It's easy to favor free and fair trade with Africa....until you hear from the American farmer. It's a no-brainer to stand up against pork-barrel spending on outmoded military bases or propping-up flailing industries...unless you represent the people who stand to lose their jobs. It's idiotic not to favor at least some reforms in the Social Security system....until you come up against democracy in action, also known as senior citizens who will not merely clean, but gut, the clock of anyone who threatens to touch a hair on the head of "their" money.
This isn't to suggest that those choices can't be made, or worthy compromises can't be reached. But it ain't easy. And in the course of trying, it just might help to have tried before.

Just as it's always been a mistake to sanctify politicians for never having smoked this or that, I think it's a mistake to glorify politicians for never having done much, well, politicking. I think we should stop searching for redeeming outsiders at least long enough to scan the horizon for a worthy insider: somebody who's tried and failed a few things a few times and been fried for it in the media; who's got some scuffmarks from the legislative process; who's won a few and lost a few and horse-traded enough to know when to hold out for the whole enchilada and when to figure that half a loaf is better than none.
Do you think Edwards would go for being the running mate to Obama
Good job OBAMA. You're the real Commander-Inchief.
New Hampshire Democratic Debate Winner

Who won the ABC Democratic Debate in New Hampshire?

http://www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=1451

.

Obama did great, as most of them did. But change is more then a "word" its how to lead... We so need a leader, and Obama fit the bill.

The whole world is watching, and one day the whole world will come together again, and Obama will lead the way.
Frank Luntz viewer focus group crucified her...she lost everyone in there that was supporting her.  Came in with 12-15 left with maybe 2
If Edwards takes second in NH, it will really transform the race.

Richardson did a great job and he ought to take the "experienced" vote instead of Hillary.  He's got experience in spades, and he's highly qualified.

But Obama is still my candidate.  Head and shoulders above the rest (and not just because he's tall).
I agree that Obama looked presidential. His answers were reasoned and thoughtful. He showed the scope of his knowledge of all the issues. He will win Tuesday. The latest Rasmussen poll taken after the Iowa Caucus has Obama winning with 37% to Hillary's 27%. After this debate the gap will only widen - with Hillary really sinking.

Frankly, Hillary was downright scary. She almost - almost - had a Howard Dean meltdown with that hyper, over-the-top response to Edwards when he said she was now losing. Very unsettling. Kind of gives one pause that if a personal critcism like that would get her so rattled, how would she be in face-to-face dealings with foreign leaders if criticized? Not a good night for Hillary.

Edwards had a good night. I think he will come in second, beating out Hillary. I think Richardson could beat her too.

A very good night for Barack Obama!
I deeply disagree about saying Obama did better than Clinton. I find him confused, difficult to express himself clearly, and often hesitating on his answers. He is a gifted speechreader, but a terrible debater.It needs more qualities to be the United States president.
Grow up you guys.  Barack did not appear Presidential at all.  Hillary stood her ground and punched back when attacked by opportunistic Edwards.  I give the win to Hillary -- great job girl!
So to all Obama supporters who have intelligence:

Do you think action is bigger than words?


I can bet most will ignore the question as they will chicken out.
This is ridiculous.  Lead me to the river, but you better hope I can swim.  

People are looking to be inspired.  Good, but let's be realistic.  I like Obama and if he's the nominee, I will support him.  However, Hillary won the debate tonight and should be the nominee.  I hope to God the residents of NH are not swayed by the hype.  She is the ONE.
HILLARY WAS PISSED, PISSED, PISSED.

THAT WAS A MOMEMT !

NOW WE KNOW SHE WOULD LOSE IT AND EMBARASS AMERICA IF AHMEDINEJAD SAID SOMETHING NEGATIVE TO HER.

WE DON'T NEED A HOT-HEAD AS PRESIDENT. WE NEED A CALM, RESTRAINED PERSON!
Grow up you guys.  Barack did not appear Presidential at all.  Hillary stood her ground and punched back when attacked by opportunistic Edwards.  I give the win to Hillary -- great job girl!
I agree with your posting; Obama won the debate, Edwards defended Obama and passionate about his own message, and Clinton angry.  Obama stayed above the fray and responded well to the questions asked of him, and seemed confortable taking on Clinton. Go OBAMA!
Hillary is going to get hit hard on her "we need to deal in reality" comment.

She basically just stated that those supporting a campaign for change are ignornat and naive. Voters don't like candidates who look down on them.
John, Providence (Sent Saturday, January 05, 2008 10:49 PM)


John , you are ignorant and naive to support Obama on his lobbyist claims. He voted for the energy bill which helped lobbyist. His NH chair is a lobbyist. His ethics reform bill kept a loophole so lobbyist can still work around.

You need a list to prove you are ignorant and naive?

Action speaks louder than words! Obama's actions in Senate speak different from what he says.
Hillary C. is a tough, brilliant, yet compasionate person and it all comes out in a forum as this. She is extraordiary and the rest know it. She would be the best against the Republicans and we all know this.  
Hay, Chuck Todd, you would fit in very well @Clinton News Network. That is the problem with the Media, they think it's about them, It's Not about You. It's about AMERICA. All of ya here at 1st read could take lesson's from an Independent minded Political junkie, like Charlie Cook.
Since we're using Boxing anaolgies on 1st read this evening,Barack hardly worked up a Sweat in the tune up to Tuesday.Hillary got a couple jab's in, but was Knocked off her feet, from the Right Cross Bill Richardson hit her with.

here's one for ya Chuck; AMERICA IS DIVORCING THE CLINTON'S & IT'S NOT GONNA BE PRETTY.
Very good debate. Obama did look like a man in charge. Hillary needs to handle her emotion. You have to calm your nerves in order to be the leader of the USA. And good point by Obama yes words to inspire.
Marcia from Gold Canyon - you hit it on the nose.  Rhetoric and inspiration is nice but without a solid foundation of experiences to have strategic beliefs going in that oft-times lead to better decisions in crises.  I also agree, I'm so sick and tired of people criticizing how angry someone, whether it's Hillary or Edwards, - in my opinion, this shows passion and I enjoy seeing it every now and then.  It's not like either of them are mad all the time.  In the end, Barack is reminiscent of George Bush...likeable by the mass of his party with minimal experience and look where it got us.  Say what you want to say, likeable or not, almost everyone with a logical mind knows that Kerry would have made a better president than Bush.  I'll just be glad when we have a new president...I'm so tired of being ridicule about our president when I travel overseas.
Wow,....what a different take I have on the debate. I liked all four...but I must say from the audience the loudest applause went to Clinton.  I think that a LOT of women will find the tag team of Edwards and Obama "beating up" Clinton as offensive.  And, I think she was MUCH more knowlegable on Foreign Policy than either Edwards or Obama, but not Richardson.  And, for me anyway, Obama has yet to convince me he will be able to handle the GOP attacks on his lack of experience, which, unfortunately he did not answer when asked tonight.  Having said that, if he or Edwards or Richardson or Clinton win, he or she will get my vote.
Both Edwards and Richardson supported Obama...interesting.  Because he's weaker, or because he's make th a better President?
Hillary lost the debate the moment she got angry.  We expect it of Edwards and why he continues to languish, but for Hillary to get so angry was a big mistake,  when Richardson said, i've seen less hostility in hostage negotiations that just killed it for her.

At the same time i though Richardsons defense of experience was fantastic.  Since when has experience become a dirty work.  Problem was it was just after Hillary emotional outburst.

Marcia - I happen to sit in boardrooms on a regular basis, and i can tell you coming from a man or a woman a outburst like that does not play well, at that level people respond to reason and information not emotion.

Obama was the perfect executive, calm while being criticized, keeping the debate in the context of facts, rising above the fray.  He did look tired though and a debate is not a good format for him.  I see him as a better president than a debater.  The opposite is true for Hillary and Edwards to much emotion to be calm and collected when the world around them is in chaotic.

The gender card does not play well, if Obama used the race card it would hurt him as well.  I am surprised Hillary handlers have not told her that.  The constituency that likes that kind of talk - first woman president - is already on her side.  Young people don't care, those cultural wars were fought before their time and do not relate to it.  Independents don't care either as they tend not to vote on wedge issues like gender or race.

We will see how the NH voters react.
Hillary looked like the shrill angry Senator from New York that she is.  Go back to the Senate, Hillary.  That's where you belong.  We don't want to listen to your partisan shrillness for the next 4 years.  America desperately needs someone to help itself heal from the last 7 years.
The Dems need to get behind Barack and get back the White House. Edwards for VP. Hillary will be done on Tuesday. Richardson for Sec of State.

He is an inspiring man.
This debate just brought everything into focus.

Hillary looked and sounded petty and mean spirited and certainly didn't project a presidential image.

My vote belongs to Barack Obama. (And I hope he brings John Edwards into his cabinet as secretary of labor!).
I agree with your posting; Obama won the debate, Edwards defended Obama and passionate about his own message, and Clinton angry.  Obama stayed above the fray and responded well to the questions asked of him, and seemed confortable taking on Clinton. Go OBAMA!
I think Hillary was incredibly articulate and thoughtful with her answers right from the start.  There was detail and depth that none of the other democratic candidates had.  Plus the double team of Obama and Edwards was ridiculous and I'm glad that it was pointed out during the second half of the debate.  She not only handled herself well, but was able to retaliate against Edwards who tried to make himself seem more important in the Senate than he really was.

These are serious times and just like she said, we need someone who can actually get stuff done instead of just talking about it.  Even though she didn't say it, she is for the people and she does listen to what the American people want.  I'm sick of hearing that only Obama feels that way.  Go Hillary!
The Edwards counter attack on Hillary reminds me of the Hunt for Red October with the American sub intercepting the torpedos. This allowed Obama to remain on message - change. Hillary is status quo and she looked angry that she was being deprived of what was rightly hers. McCain-Obama in the general is great for the country!


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