ABOUT FIRST READ

First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Obama: 'We are about to make history'

Posted: Monday, January 07, 2008 7:48 PM by Domenico Montanaro

From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
ROCHESTER, N.H. -- Speaking to an overflow crowd outside the town hall in here, Obama told the crowd that history will be made tomorrow in the New Hampshire primary.
 
"I hope all of you are not only going to the polls yourselves tomorrow," he said, "but also that you're going to be grabbing some people and telling them we are about to make history here and you want to be a part of it. You don't want to be looking back five years from now and saying the American people really rose up and changed America, and I was sitting on the couch."

Trying to make his victory not look too inevitable, he continued, "Everybody understands that we got a lot of work to do, we got one more day. If we follow through then I think tomorrow could just continue to build what we started seeing in Iowa. What's most important about that is we doubled turnout, young people voted like they never voted before. We got Independents and Republicans to cross over voting in a Democrtaic caucus. This is the start of a working majority. This is how we're going to change politics and change America."  

The crowd stood in about a foot of snow listening to him and chanted, "Obama! Obama! Obama!" after he finished speaking. The speech was broadcast on loudspeakers outside and about 100 people remained to listen to Obama on an unseasonably warm winter night before the primary.

The earliest polls open at 6:00 am ET (mostly cities, most towns open at 7:00 am ET) and the latest close at 8:00 pm ET (though most close at 7:00 pm ET). Every municipality sets their own time. Manchester opens 6:00 am and closes at 7:00 pm ET.

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I received an email regarding Obama's church memebership.  I felt some of it was inflamatory so I omitted those parts.  However, after reading the page to which this email directed me, I do have concerns that I wuld like answered before I go on an allout campaign against him.  If you learn more about this subject , I would appreciate your sharing that information with me.
 
Obama mentioned his church during his appearance with Oprah.  It's the Trinity Church of Christ.  
Please go to this church's website and read what is written there. It is of some concern to me.  Barack Obama is a member of this church and is running for President of the U.S. If you look at the first page of their website, you will learn that this congregation has a non-negotiable commitment to Africa. No where is AMERICA even mentioned. Notice too, what color you will need to be if you should want to join Obama's church... B-L-A-C-K!!!  This guy desires to rule over America while his church loyalty is totally vested in a Black Africa!
I cannot believe this has not been all over the TV and newspapers.
This is why it is so important to pass this message along to all of our family & friends.Click on the link below for the web page for the church Barack Obama belongs to:  
www.tucc.org/about.htm
In the same day that Hillary cries she does this;
http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2008/01/on_eve_of_primary_hillary_drops_negative_mailer_hitting_obama_on_taxes.php

Yet another negative and utterly deceptive mailer.   GET OUT OF MY PARTY, HOW DARE YOU COMPARE ANYONE ELSE TO GEORGE W. BUSH WHEN YOU PULL ANOTHER MAILER!
1st Read, where is the News of Hillary playing the Al-Quida terrorism card today?I'm losing faith in ya Chuck.
Barack Hussein Obama is not what American needs,
his change, I'm afraid, will be the end of The
Land of the Free. Come on people, Muslim-American,
Hussein, you might as well give Osama bin laden the key's.
Be careful America.
Saddam Hussein
Osama bin laden
Barack Hussein Obama
Am I the only one feeling they have found a new
way in?
The audacity of Hypocrisy?The audacity of Hypocrisy?
1)Obama votes to renew the Patriot Act.
2)Obama takes money from lobbyits
3)Obama votes against definate withdrawal date for Iraq
4)Obama says he'll negoiate with everyone, but than says he'll invade Pakistan even if the government disagrees
5)Obama claims Clinton is like Bush on Iran because she voted on a bill a labeling the IRG terrorists, but he sponsorers the same bill and says we need use nukes against hem
6)Obama has no plan to pay for his health care plan and it leaves out 20 million people

He's like Giuliani, Clinton and Bush
McCain wants to MAKE WAR he is a WAR MONGER.

While Obama is making history, McCain is already planning the next war.  He wants contol of the NUKES and McCain with NUKES he does not need diplomacy.

Romeny and Obama are too much diplomacy and not enough more war.
McCain wants to MAKE WAR he is a WAR MONGER.

While Obama is making history, McCain is already planning the next war.  He wants contol of the NUKES and McCain with NUKES he does not need diplomacy.

Romeny and Obama are too much diplomacy and not enough more war.

Bill Clinton embarassed Hillary enough before and now he is embarassing her again I can't make you younger.
New Hampshire, if you send Obama on with a victory, there's a massive wave building for him in California.  I was at an Obama volunteer organizing meeting last weekend that was standing room only and the buzz was palpable.  That's right:  a volunteer organizing meeting in a huge room with standing room only.
it sounds as if the change wave from barack obama not only persist just for america,it would likely have a deep impact on whole world,becouse we need such kind of reliable and trusting characters or political figures in this global world...He has the capability to solve historical dilemmas and problems between christians and muslims,about the philisteen issue,controversy between turks and greeks and armenians,solving kurdish rebellions,pakistanian and india conflict...ı think he is the man who can have the power to solve all these issues...
Note to all independents in NH:  get out and vote for Obama.  McCain is going to win and doesn't need your vote so be sure to vote in the Democratic Primary.  Obama needs every vote to bury the Clinton Machine once and for all.  Thanks.
Oviously most of you can only see up to his name, not into his message.This is the new 'John F. Kennedy'.
Marianne Fields (Sent Monday, January 07, 2008 8:01 PM)

_________

Please get a life
Why don't your experts predict a winner? I would respect their guess.
Barack Hussein Obama is not what American needs,
his change, I'm afraid, will be the end of The
Land of the Free. Come on people, Muslim-American,
Hussein, you might as well give Osama bin laden the key's.
Worried in Tennessee (Sent Monday, January 07, 2008 8:26 PM)

Be careful America.
Saddam Hussein
Osama bin laden
Barack Hussein Obama
Am I the only one feeling they have found a new
way in?

Worried, Tennessee (Sent Monday, January 07, 2008 8:35 PM)
WILLMSNBCPOSTHIS (Sent Monday, January 07, 2008 8:36 PM)

___________________________________

So these idiots are trying to post their ignorants on every blog......I tell you, it amazing how ignorant people like this are so scare of change..... thats why they continue to stay stupid......

Oh my gosh! His middle name is Hussein? Its obvious he must be a Muslim secret agent, who simply forgot to change his middle name, thus giving all us a clue as to his secret agenda, lol.

I'm reminded of the people who were convinced Ronald Wilson Reagan was the anti-Christ because each of his three names had six letters.

Personally, I think I give more credence to idea that this is a political movement of historic proportions in favor of a more mature government that might actually be more concerned with governing than with childish partisan games.
OK, let's do this again.  Obama does NOT belong to a sinister, black-separatist church.  He belongs to a United Church of Christ www.ucc.org congregation located in a majority-black area of Chicago, with the natural outcome that the congregation is mostly black.  The church has urged that blacks take responsibility for themselves, their families, and others within the black community to end the violence, poverty, and lack of opportunity that plagues their community.  It's hard for me to imagine how any of this could be as sinister as is being reported, Bill Cosby has been getting all sorts of accolades for saying the same sorts of things.

Since Barack Obama has been a member of the United Church of Christ for over 20 years how can he be a Muslim?  That rumor has been done to death and debunked repeatedly. http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/muslim.asp  And no, he did not attend a Madrassa, or radical Islamic school. http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/01/22/obama.madrassa/  Can we put this to bed now and talk about real issues?
Pllease do not ever send me another message. The so called messages were written by an Ignorant, people who were hired by the Clinton organization. Just another bag of tricks,theu are poor losers..
Worried in Tennessee, please tell me you are joking and not really that ignorant?
The next time Sen. Obama speaks with his usual passion and eloquence about his desire to unite Americans, someone must ask him two questions: Why are your left-wing positions any less divisive than President Bush's right-wing positions? And if you are so committed to uniting Americans, why did you vote against declaring English our national, i.e., our unifying, language? Without compelling answers, Sen. Obama's calls for American unity are no more than calls to unite around his politics and him.

Obama is a Christian.  People who think differently are uninformed or just plain stupid.  Obama will continue to ensure the United States of America is safe, economically successful, work with other nations through diplomcatic efforts and ensure we remain strong militarily.  Through his leadership, vision, and inclusiveness of all people, we will continue to be leaders of the free world and anyone who might want to join us.
GO OBAMA!
Obama, has the most inspiring speeches since John F Kennedy. You can feel goose bums just listening to him speak. Unlike Bush, who my 12 year old can speak better than. He truly will bring change. He has been for change from the begining while the rest are figuring out they maybe should start talking about change now. GO OBAMA!
Barack Obama should be honored for knocking Hillary Clinton out of the race. He has done so with passion, grace, and humor. And he hasn't entered into the Politics of Personal Destruction to do get the job done.

It is time to celebrate! The Clinton era has ended!!
The Church website u were looking at wasn't the religions website! it was that building/branch...
http://www.tuccdf.org/
I would bet my life that behind the doors she is attacking Obama racially as she dide Paul Fray calling him a Jew Bastard, a mother fu--king jew bastard, and Larry patterson her bodyguard, you mother fu--king jew bas--tard and the idiot jews in New York elected her.  she will be calling Obama a fu--cking ni--g-er uncle tom , or mf black bastard.  This is the way she is, no offense but when the blacks go for obama,its over for her, the racial remarks will come
1st Read, where is the News of Hillary playing the Al-Quida terrorism card today?I'm losing faith in ya Chuck.
Rick,ky (Sent Monday, January 07, 2008 8:22 PM)

Why waste your time on people who are obviously plants?  Think about it...if you have questions about a candidate do you post your doubts and continually refuted lies on a media site?  No.  People like that would spend most of their time on white supremacist sites like Fox News.  And since they post and run (troll), it's obvious that they aren't interested in facts.  They just came to dump their lies.  There's so much bigotry, racism and fearmongering in these posts, that it's clear they're either bots or plants or sad creatures with too much time on their hands and no friends.  

What is interesting to me is the fact that these lies and bigotted posts get approved all the time by these media sites.  Yet, I have 9 posts done since Friday, that called MSNBC out on their shoddy reporting that have not been approved at all.  

Wonder why.
I know! Clinton's ppl are unbelievable! They have gotten so desperate...between the kindergarten story, Bill's comments and his "loving" wife's comments about Obama being in a debate with himself...she has turned off voters
Kucinich, anyone?
MEDIA REPORTS THAT OBAMA WALKS ON WATER

No the media didn't report about this, I just wanted to get the attention of the people running this blog.

Dan Abrams did a piece tonight on how unfair the media has treated Hillary. I tried to send an email to Abrams but it keeps coming back as undeliverable so I'm posting it here in the hopes that someone at MSNBC will read it.

Dear Dan,

You were correct that the media has gone Ga Ga over Obama and have acted like total idiots. In my opinion the Obama supporters should actually be a bit worried about the over the top coverage because whoever the media builds up they eventually tear down.

You are also correct that they have been unfair to Hillary lately. But, in the beginning of this campaign they also built Hillary up as the inevitable winner just like they are currently doing to Obama. What they are doing to her now is what I  think they will eventually do to Obama.

But, I'm very disappointed that not once during your broadcast did you mention the unfair media treatment of John Edwards. And unlike Obama & Hillary the media has never built Edwards up, they've only torn him down or ignored him.

Edwards beat Hillary in Iowa and the media has all but written him out of the narrative. So while I can agree with you on the current negative coverage for Clinton I think you also need to be fair to Edwards and talk about what the media has done to him throughout this campaign and what they continue to do.
I heard Hillary plans on pretending Feb. 5/Guliani stragedy was her stragedy all along if she loses...If NH voter turn out I can tell you she won't stand a chance in NJ...the wave here is almost unreal and from what Scott from CA was saying earlier, This is a Coast to Coast movement.
Senator Obama's vision empowers Americans of all mettle to change forever the dynamics of national politics, and to excite and enlist future participation for generations to come!!! Your vote is your voice!!! ObamaMama!ObamaMama!ObamaMama!
OBAMA IS WINNING BECAUSE PEOPLE HATE THE CLINTONS, ITS THAT SIMPLE  ITS A VOTE AGAINST HER  THIS GUY IS OK BUT HIS MINISTER IS A KNOWN MUSLIM RADICAL
Hillary Clinton is trying scare off the Black Citizen for voting Senator Obama...Stay Strong Stay Focou

"An Unwelcome History Lesson
By Sarah Wheaton

DOVER, N.H. — As they barnstorm through New Hampshire, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and her husband are often introduced by supporters who once backed another candidate but converted to her cause.
Today, in Dover, Francine Torge, a former John Edwards supporter, said this while introducing Mrs. Clinton: “Some people compare one of the other candidates to John F. Kennedy. But he was assassinated. And Lyndon Baines Johnson was the one who actually” passed the civil rights legislation.
The comment, an apparent reference to Senator Barack Obama, is particularly striking given documented fears among blacks that Mr. Obama will be assassinated if elected.
Phil Singer, a Clinton spokesman said: “We were not aware that this person was going to make those comments and disapprove of them completely. They were totally inappropriate.”

Mrs. Clinton’s expression did not change noticeably when Ms. Torge made the comment.
Only a few hours later, she brought up the civil rights legislation herself in remarks to a Fox News correspondent.
Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama have been in a running feud arising from her suggestion at Saturday’s debate that he was raising “false hope.”
Mr. Obama responded Mr. Kennedy did not decide going to the moon was a false hope and that Martin Luther King, Jr. did not see ending segregation as such.
“Dr. King’s dream began to be realized when President Johnson passed the Civil Rights Act,” Mrs. Clinton said when asked about Mr. Obama’s rejoinder by Fox’s Major Garrett after her speech in Dover. “It took a president to get it done.”
The Obama campaign declined to comment on either of those remarks.
Later, during an appearance in Salem, Mrs. Clinton refined, and to some extent defanged, her remarks on Fox:
“You know, today Senator Obama used President John F. Kennedy and Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. to criticize me. He basically compared himself to our greatest heroes because they gave great speeches.

“President Kennedy was in Congress for 14 years. He was a war hero. He was a man of great accomplishments and readiness to be president. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. led a movement. He was gassed. He was beaten. He was jailed. And he gave a speech that was one of the most
beautifully, profoundly important speeches ever written in America, the “I have a dream” peech. And then he worked with President Johnson to get the civil rights laws passed, because the dream couldn’t be realized until finally it was legally permissible for people of all colors and backgrounds and races and ethnicities to be accepted as citizens.
“I’m running for president because I believe that there is not a contradiction between experience and change.”
WOLF IN SHEEPS CLOTHING.THAT'S WHAT OBAMA IS TOO ME.
Does your disclaimer say "use appropriate language"???  WHY ARE THE FILTHY COMMENTS OF KING OF SMEAR BLOGGED???
That "Tennessee" poster got his information from an idiot talk show host in West Tennessee.  He didn't bother to find out the REAL name of the church, that would have been too intelligent.  Btw, they are not Hillary supporters but radical war mongering "Christian?" republicans.
Desperately Seeking Serious Journalism On A Critical Issue Of Character.  Why isn't the media asking/answering this question of Obama's church.  Let's get this out in the open one way or the other.  Is the church a "creationist church"?  Is it viewing the world through a narrow lens of a "black" perspective on everything?  Are other races, including whites, correctly feeling unwelcome because they are not black?  If yes, then how are we supposed to reconcile this with Obama's "uniting" campaign message.  Surely where he worships is indicative of his deeply held beliefs much more so than campaign speeches.    
Obama will be the next president of the United States.
I will vote for him and all of my family will do the same. REMEMBER THE CHANT 4 MORE YEARS AND THE BANDAID.
Well you got what you wished for. Oil at $100.00 barrel and a trillion dollar debt and a economy that is going down faster than the titanic. I will  be chanting for Obama 4 more years while you republicans enjoy the fruits of his success. I only wish there was a way to make all republicans and haters keep paying the same price you do today once this economy is back in our hands that will show you. How about sending Bush and Chenney to  Iraq so that they both can be greeted as liberators without all the security
given to them with our tax dollars?? Whats your opinion we  like to know.
HOPEFULLY AFTER TOMORROW ALL THESE PAID INTERNET THUGS WOULD COLLECT THEIR LAST PAY CHECK FROM THE BOSS LEADER AND WE COULD HAVE DECENT POLITICAL BLOGS FREE OF THESE HATEFUL, CHILDISH AND SILLY SLIME ABOUT OBAMA

THE CHARACTER ASSASINATION AIMED AT OBAMA IS SO 90'S, THIS IS THE 21ST CENTURY.


THIS POSITIVE CHANGE HAS COME TO STAY AND EVIL WON'T STOP IT.
I recently got an E-mail from someone who gave me a low down on Obama. I was really pretty upset when I found out that he is muslim, and an atheith who when sworn in to office didn't put his right hand on the bible, rather on the koran. I also heard that he turned his back on the american flag. I would like to know if this is true, and is it a good idea to let a muslim run our country. I would like to hear him explain that to me... wouldn't that be like opening our doors wide open for trouble?  
I wish I knew what Obama stands for, NOTHING he has said has any substance

for the first time in 30 year I will vote Republican if Obama is nominated: either Clinton or Edwards, no Barrack
Think about this.

As long as Hillary is in the race, Barack will win. But remember 62% of Iowans didnt vote for Barack. And because Obama supporters are nasty and arrogant, once Hillary drops out, they wont go for Barack.

Which makes me think, Barack is winning just because people hate Clinton. Clinton will drop out after NH anyway.
HOPEFULLY AFTER TOMORROW ALL THESE PAID INTERNET THUGS WOULD COLLECT THEIR LAST PAY CHECKs FROM THE BOSS LADY AND WE COULD HAVE DECENT POLITICAL BLOGS FREE OF THESE HATEFUL, CHILDISH AND SILLY SLIME ABOUT OBAMA

THE CHARACTER ASSASINATION AIMED AT OBAMA IS SO 90'S, THIS IS THE 21ST CENTURY.
Marianne Fields, Worried in Tennessee, WILLMSNBCPOSTHIS, M. Davis, New Hampshire...

Sorry, I REALLY THINK THESE ARE ALL CLINTON SOCK PUPPETS

Talk about divisive !
Talk about a lack of morals !
Thank you Hillary !
Thank you Bill !
Thank you Mark Penn !!

Not even the Republicans are THIS DIRTY
And people on this blog complain that people are MEAN to Hillary ?
That people who criticize her 'hate'.....
Hillary and Bill are SCUM BAGS



From Huff Post (MyDD):

'...Clinton's Lead In National Polls Collapses

Gallup Also Shows Tie Nationally Between Clinton and Obama
by Jonathan Singer, Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 05:14:12 PM EST

Earlier today I noted that Rasmussen Reports found that Hillary Clinton's long-standing large lead over Barack Obama in national polling had all but vanished, falling within the poll's margin of error. Now a new national poll from Gallup shows that Clinton's lead hasn't essentially evaporated -- it has actually evaporated.

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama each drew 33% of the support from Democrats surveyed in its latest national poll, Gallup just announced.

In mid-December, well before Obama won last Thursday's Democratic caucuses in Iowa, Clinton held an 18-percentage point lead over him in Gallup's survey -- 45% to 27%.

Before today, Obama had never held or even shared the national lead with Clinton in Gallup's polling.

John Edwards remains third in Gallup's polling of Democrats. His support: 20%, vs. 15% in mid-December.


It's not clear how durable these numbers will be -- or if they even represent the end of the trend or just the beginning. At present, with a tie nationally, it's not clear that Clinton would be able to make up for early losses in the February 5 states, and she certainly could not if this trend continues and Obama actually takes a significant national lead. Nevertheless, this growth in support for Obama nationally could prove fleeting. There is quite a bit of time, still, between now and the beginning of February (nearly a month, in fact...), so there could be a potential for Clinton to stop some of the hemorrhaging of her support in time to make a real push for the big states that will chose their delegates on the superest of super Tuesdays.

Yet even leaving aside the longer term meaning of these numbers, one cannot help but think that this poll could serve to reinforce the results of Iowa in further indicating to voters nationwide, through the establishment media, that Obama can win. This is big time news for the Obama campaign in the short term, a further momentum boost at a time when it is trying to make its final push to make another statement tomorrow night. We've got a heckuva campaign on our hands, folks.

And one more point... John Edwards is not going away. He has vowed to stay in the race through the convention, for whatever that's worth, and he continues to maintain substantial support nationwide. It's not clear to me if he has a path to the nomination at this point -- I had trouble seeing one for him even in the case that he had won Iowa -- but it does seem quite possible that he will continue to play a meaningful role in this race for some time to come.....'

The Clinton scam is OVER !!
Her national lead has COLLASPED !
What will happen to the state polls ?
South Carolina ?
Nevada ?
California ?
New Jersey ?

Game over !!










Tags: National Poll, Democratic Primaries, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama (all tags)

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  Of course JRE will stay in the race (none / 0)


He has a chance to put his message in front of millions of people who haven't heard it before. That is all to the good, even if he is a longshot for the nomination.



Find out what firefighters really think of Rudy Giuliani
by desmoinesdem on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 05:18:27 PM EST



Re: Of course JRE will stay in the race (2.00 / 2)


Edwards showed excellent judgment when he used his post-caucus time to get his stump speech out before a wider audience.  The talking heads whined about how it wasn't more of a concession, but he knows that he gets very few opportunities to remind a national audience that he's actually in this race and these are the things he stands for.

He also sends the right message to supporters like me and you, people who thought he had a real shot to win Iowa and are maybe wondering a little bit about whether the campaign has a path to victory from here.  Rather than display any hesitation or sense of regret, it seems like he's fighting twice as hard now.  That's the kind of tone that keeps the supporters fired up and motivated.



by Steve M on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 05:26:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]  


Re: Of course JRE will stay in the race (none / 0)


It would probably be better for my candidate if he dropped out, but I admire his spirit. We could have used more of that in 2000 (and frankly 2004), I hope he keeps it up.




by souvarine on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 05:38:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]  


yes, I agree (2.00 / 1)


it would have been stupid to play to the pundits at that point.

I have talked to several people who watched Saturday's debate and were really impressed with Edwards. Of course, these are Iowans, so it's too late for them to act on their feelings, but I imagine quite a few people in other states were watching and thinking, wow, this guy is talking about reality.


Find out what firefighters really think of Rudy Giuliani
by desmoinesdem on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 05:40:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]  


Re: Of course JRE will stay in the race (none / 0)


Edwards certainly has every right to stay in the  race, and god knows anything can happen in politics.  That said, as an Edwards supporter will you continue to support him after February 5th if he fails to win any states on super friggin duper tuesday?



by HSTruman on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 05:42:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]  


You mean WHEN (none / 0)

right?


by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 05:43:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]  


Re: Of course JRE will stay in the race (2.00 / 1)


My support for Edwards is as much about his message as his personal qualities.  I think it is good for the Democratic Party and for the progressive movement that he stay in the race for as long as he can get people to listen.

I vote on Super Tuesday and after that day, I'm not sure why anyone would care who I support anyway.  Events will play out and I'll be all about the Democratic nominee whoever it may be.



by Steve M on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 05:47:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]  


Re: Of course JRE will stay in the race (none / 0)


I was just trying to figure out whether you anticipate a real nomination battle after the 5th.  I gather from you statement you do not, which is also my view.  



by HSTruman on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 05:58:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]  


Re: Of course JRE will stay in the race (none / 0)


Heck, don't look to me for a prediction.  I had the Steelers and the Redskins on Saturday.



by Steve M on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 05:59:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]  


as I said downthread (none / 0)


Obama supporters should be happy for Edwards to stay in the race. The right-wing hate machine will not start to unload on Obama until they are 100 percent sure that Edwards is out of it.


Find out what firefighters really think of Rudy Giuliani
by desmoinesdem on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 05:54:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]  


Re: as I said downthread (none / 0)


I'm not sure that's because the GOP is scared of Edwards, but I don't disagree that it will benefit whoever the Dem nominee is to keep the primary going for a bit.  Ultimately, it's problematic if the media gets bored too soon.  That's when the truly ridiculous stories, about whoever the nominee is, will get written.  



by HSTruman on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 05:59:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]  


SC: Obama 50%, HRC 30% (none / 0)


Obama is getting 69% of the black vote.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=066ea20c-d300-48cd-a585-cc9c35 6df4eb

My God.



by Louverture on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 05:21:37 PM EST


As I noted in this diary (2.00 / 1)


in June, the average swing in National polling from Iowa and New Hampshire is 33 points.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/8/20/1353 42/944#readmore

My guess is that this bounce will bigger.

And let me vent: why don't people look at history when commenting on polling.  No baseball writer would report on a batting average without look at baseball history.

Baseball reporters have a higher standard for accuracy than political reporters.



by fladem on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 05:21:51 PM EST



Re: As I noted in this diary (none / 0)


Thats because baseball reporters aren't trying to influence the outcome. They just want to talk about the game they love.



by JDF on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 05:25:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]  


Oh Happy Day (none / 0)


My people are finally making me proud with their rejection of HRC.



by Louverture on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 05:25:21 PM EST


Re: Gallup Also Shows Tie Nationally (none / 0)


Louverture its not a rejection of HRC. I think  its just more support for Obama.



by TennesseeGurl on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 05:27:43 PM EST



Re: Gallup Also Shows Tie Nationally (none / 0)


Yes, you are probably right. I'm getting carried away.



by Louverture on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 05:34:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]  


I suspect you are right (2.00 / 1)


Although there are some anybody-but-Hillary Democrats, most of them like Hillary--they just like others better.


Find out what firefighters really think of Rudy Giuliani
by desmoinesdem on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 05:34:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]  


To quote Authur Miller (2.00 / 1)


Like Willy Loman, Hillary is liked, but not WELL liked.



by fladem on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 06:31:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]  


Re: Gallup Tie Nationally Clinton and Obama (2.00 / 1)


Can't spell "inevitable" without "Evita."  



by Thom on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 05:30:33 PM EST


Re: Gallup Also Shows Tie Nationally Between Clint (none / 0)


And one more point, no one is going to say they are going to drop at until they drop out.  Biden and Dodd were going all the way to the convention.  And then suddenly they weren't. If Edwards gets less than 20% in NH and the next day the Culinary Union endorses Obama, there are going to be some serious discussions.



by Piuma on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 05:30:38 PM EST



no, he will stay in (2.00 / 1)


Why not? There's always a chance that HRC will be forced out of the race, after which some big story will emerge about Obama.

Actually, you should hope that Edwards stays in the race as long as possible, even if Obama does win the nomination. The GOP will not start to unload on Obama until they know for sure that Edwards is out of it. They do not want to run against Edwards.


Find out what firefighters really think of Rudy Giuliani
by desmoinesdem on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 05:36:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]  


But there will be no more campaigning (none / 0)

in earnest after this imo. Obama will sweep Sout Carolina, raise a ton of money for February 5 and swamp the airwaves with ads. New Hampshire was the chance to campaign on issues. To explain, if he could, why Edwards was the change agent not Obama. After tomorrow night, there will be no other chances. It will be all big TV buys for Obama, and Edwards, with little money, going dark.


by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 05:42:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]  


why would he need to go dark? (none / 0)


He's still raising money and can borrow against expected matching funds. He can afford to buy a few days of tv ads in a bunch of states.

I actually agreed with you about Edwards' strategy during the debate on Saturday.

I could see the thinking behind what he is doing, though. He figures that if HRC is forced from the race and the media start to put Obama under real scrutiny, he still has a shot. On the other hand, if HRC has a reasonably strong second place showing in NH, he will get less media oxygen.


Find out what firefighters really think of Rudy Giuliani
by desmoinesdem on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 05:56:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]  


I do not see (none / 0)

how either Clinton or Edwards do much of anythig after this. Being Clinton she wil be covered of course. And being Edwards he won't. Look, if anyone wants to go back to my original posting on polls and whatnot, I ALWAYS said Iowa was everything for Obama and Edwards and for Hillary if Obama won. Yep, I was right. No offense, but we have a shitty system when Iowa picks our nominee every 4 years.


by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 06:54:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]  


Re: I do not see (none / 0)


Iowa hasn't always right? Obviously in the case of Bill Clinton, but haven't there been others?


http://pragmaticprogressivedemocrat.blog spot.com  
by dmc2 on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 07:27:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]  


Re: I do not see (none / 0)


Yeah, they picked Gephardt in '88, McGovern was 3rd in '72 (counting "uncommitted") and Carter was second in'76 after "uncommitted".

Moreover, don't trust precedent for president. There aren't enough elections in a generation to create good data. There are simply a million things you could measure, and some of them have always tilted a certain way. That does not make each one the key factor. If it did we'd be screwed for not choosing a governor.


youtube.com/JoeFelice
by JoeFelice on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 08:24:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]  


Exactly (none / 0)


The "will fight 'till the very end and the convention" is standard boilerplate for any campaign and candidate who isn't announcing they are dropping out in the very speech they are then giving.



by lestatdelc on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 08:37:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]  


After NH (2.00 / 1)

Obama will zoom to a 10 point lead over Hillary nationally and the campaign will be basically over. There will be no more messages delivered by anyone until the GE campaign. I have seen this song before.


by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 05:39:33 PM EST



Re: After NH (none / 0)


I don't know. I hope it goes on longer. With the Rezko trial coming up I hope there's at least one other candidate in the race especially if it's Obama because if they unload something and collapse his campaign we won't have anyone else to turn to.



by Ga6thDem on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 05:48:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]  


Re: After NH (none / 0)


I wouldn't expect anything of substance to come out of the Rezko trial, other than the Republicans trying to call attention to it.  Isn't Patrick Fitzgerald the prosecutor?  One thing we know about him is that he's very circumspect about keeping collateral political issues from coming into the case.



by Steve M on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 05:54:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]  


Re: After NH (none / 0)


Patrick Fitzgerald is the attorney but I wouldn't guarantee that it won't hurt Obama because he has done business deals with him.



by Ga6thDem on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 06:06:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]  


Re: After NH (none / 0)


I think you called that correctly.



by Shaun Appleby on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 05:58:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]  


Over The Summer... (none / 0)


The Obama campaign was telling volunteers that they intended to replicate Kerry's quick sprint through Iowa and NH to the nomination. Obviously, everything is going exactly as planned. The Democratic race is over tomorrow night, once the results are announced every pundit on television will say as much.



by HatchInBrooklyn on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 06:32:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]  


Re: Over The Summer... (none / 0)


We still have a lot of work to do.  Now comes the real challenges.



by Shaun Appleby on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 07:58:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]  


Then you don't know primary history (none / 0)


because big bounces, which I have documented, can also fade.

I think Obama is going to win, but the notion that the race is over is simply wrong.



by fladem on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 06:42:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]  


Re: Then you don't know primary history (2.00 / 1)

Oh yes I do. I am telling you what is going to happen. You keep thinking this is going to change. IT ain't. It is over. Done.


by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 06:55:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]  


Re: Gallup Also Shows Tie Nationally Between Clint (none / 0)


Notice that this is the highest Edwards has been in a national poll according to pollster.com

Edwards is on the upswing, not the downswing.



by jsamuel on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 06:08:27 PM EST


Every candidate says they will fight on to the end (none / 0)


Right up until the drop out.



by lestatdelc on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 08:29:04 PM EST


EWARDS IS REAL DEAL (none / 0)


I'm glad that Obama has come on so strong. I hope he takes it to Clinton in N.H. and fatally bursts her bubble. But, if John Edwards can stay in it, he can do well in South Carolina and then Nevada, and come Super Tuesday, he's got a right good chance. I hope so. Edwards is the Real Deal, a fighter for the poor and the middle class.

Edwards-Obama would be just the ticket in 2008. None of the Republicans can beat him. And Obama can get some seasoning for 2016.



by radlib1 on Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 10:19:37 PM EST




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Laurie? How can Obama be a Muslim atheist?

You ought to pick one attack or the other. When you mix them, it kinda doesn't work.
what does being sworn into congress and refuses the bible, a long standing symble to prove loyalty to the people you are serving, but instead uses the Koran, mean to you! Listen to the acceptance speech in Iowa with open ears and understand who he is really talking about! Is everyone so seduced by this younger, smooth, senator who has very little experience and few people knew of until recently really pulled the best scam on the young rebellious people and alot of older people of the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA! When we're kissing Osama's rear and under marshall law because suddenly we're table talking to the Muslims I really hope you weren't the one to help get caught up in this CHANGING AMERICA because it's not changing for the you and me!!! By the way, I can't stand Hillary!!! Why worry about the good ole USA and the economy when its no longer here!!!!
Obama is the most elite candidate since JFK. He is believable because he speaks from the heart and doesn't follow some kind of stratigic procedure to winning the peoples heart. I like the Hilary, but that was one of her biggest flaws, she tries so hard not to make a mistake, to go by the books of politics that she screwed up. And as far as Obama turning America into BLACK AMERICA...common people: This is America we are talking about. #1 the guy is half black and half white, and whether you want to disclaim him and not acknowledge that, the fact remains that his mother is white and will always be white. I believe because of his Unique-complex background is why he is becoming so acceptable by Blacks and Whites. #2 the guy is highly intelligent who went to and graduated from one of the most powerful school of our generation. #3 most importantly like I said before this is America, with arguable, we have the most powerful constitutional legislation in the world. So all that ignorant talk about him turning us into a muslim radical government, and all these non-sense, which even a 5th grader would be able to distinct as a propaganda is an emotional weakness from anyone who advocates talks like this. FYI--(African-Americans aren't even the largest minority population). So please people, before any of you ignorant people make-up states, please, at least try to make sense of it first, because you are making the rest of us look bad.
Are people here truly ignorant... or is this really Clinton Operatives posting?  Some of this stuff is really ridiculous.
What's scarier than someone with a name that rhymes with Osama?

A bigoted monster without a brain nor a heart who cannot think rationally.  Just because someone isn't blonde with a name like DuWayne or Brittany doesn't mean they are evil.  

In fact, Obama's roots are IRISH, with a bit of KENYAN.  Not that it should matter. Obama is not related to Osama or his likes.  In fact, Obama is the opposite of terrorist. He is peaceful.  (I argue that YOU small minded plants are cyber-Terrorists.) Obama is a brilliant man who can take the long view.  

Take your stupidity and fear and replace it with hope. It's not too late.


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