The battle for New Hampshire
Posted: Tuesday, January 08, 2008 9:26 AM by Mark Murray
The latest CNN/WMUR tracking poll has Obama leading Clinton by nine points, 39%-30%, with Edwards at 16%. On the GOP side, it’s McCain 31%, Romney 26%, Huckabee at 13%, and Giuliani and Paul tied at 10%.
The latest CNN/WMUR tracking poll has Obama leading Clinton by nine points, 39%-30%, with Edwards at 16%. On the GOP side, it’s McCain 31%, Romney 26%, Huckabee at 13%, and Giuliani and Paul tied at 10%.
Per a new CBS poll, Obama’s lead is seven points (35%-28%, with Edwards at 19%. “Forty-one percent of independents support Obama, compared to just 24 percent who say they are backing Clinton. Clinton maintains a slight lead among Democrats, 33 percent to 30 percent for Obama. More than four in ten likely voters who say they will vote in the Democratic primary are independents.”
And in the last WHDH/Suffolk University tracking poll, it is Obama 39%, Clinton 34%, and Edwards 15%. Yesterday, the poll had Obama leading by just one points (35%-34%). In the Republican race, it’s Romney 30%, McCain 26%, Huckabee 13%, and Giuliani 11%.
The New Hampshire Union Leader's DiStaso breaks down the importance of today's voting with this lead: "In the dawn of the most important presidential election campaign in more than a generation - with war still raging in Iraq, the terrorist threat as real as ever, with the price of oil at $100 a barrel, with 47 million people uninsured, with a record national deficit and with skepticism toward elected leaders at a fever pitch - Granite Staters will go to the polls in droves today to do their cherished quadrennial service for America."
The Boston Globe: "In the past, New Hampshire has been a place for faltering front-runners such as Ronald Reagan in 1980 and George H. W. Bush in 1988 to regain momentum. But this year, the primary is only five days after the Iowa caucuses. Reagan had 36 days to repair his campaign after his defeat in the Iowa caucuses, and Bush had eight days to regroup in 1988."
The unseasonably warm weather may lead to a strong turnout overall.
The Boston Globe does its piece on New Hampshire’s independent voters. "About 45 percent of the state's 828,000 registered voters were unaffiliated with either party as of Oct. 31, the most recent data available, according to the New Hampshire secretary of state's office. That's a huge proportion -- polls of people entering last week's Iowa caucuses showed that independents comprised 20 percent at the Democratic gatherings and 13 percent at the GOP's."
In his latest column, Charlie Cook writes, “Assuming an Obama victory tonight, it is unrealistic to expect Clinton and Edwards both to fold their tents. But whichever one continues on would have to become the slash-and-burn ‘Stop Obama’ campaign. This would very likely create a backlash and take on an enormous amount of pressure to cease and desist. Whether Democrats should nominate Barack Obama or not is for someone else to decide. It remains to be seen whether he can go the distance in the general election and successfully address concerns about his inexperience. But this nomination may well be settled before the answers to those questions are known. Democrats now seem to want to nominate Obama and look very likely to do so unless he quickly appears to be a clear risk. It will be very difficult for either Clinton or Edwards to successfully raise those doubts at this point without rendering themselves unelectable as well.”
