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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



Why McCain won

Posted: Tuesday, January 08, 2008 9:22 PM by Domenico Montanaro

From NBC's Norah O'Donnell, Barbara Bernhard, and Adam Verdugo
McCain's success in the Granite State was due in large part to the presence of independent voters. About four in 10 GOP voters were independents, and he won this group by a sizeable margin. He edged out Mitt Romney among registered Republicans.
 
He was the leader on voter judgments about his ability to handle international situations. Almost half of the GOP voters cited either the war in Iraq or terrorism as the most important issue facing the country. McCain led by a large margin among both of these groups of voters.
 
Of the Republican voters who said the war in Iraq was the top issue, McCain beat Romney 2-to-1. About two in 10 Republicans mentioned terrorism as their top concern. Again, McCain took those voters with 43 percent compared to Romney's 24 percent.

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McStain is not electable and he would be eaten alive in a debate against, well, anyone really.  Iowa and now NH have both gotten it wrong.  Neither Huckabee or McCain is conservative and the MSM is propping them up because they know they can't win the general election.
Wow...delusional much about the mainstream media?
I don't think Josh has it right.  I think people have caught onto Romney.  A true MBA candidate, Romney has tried every marketing scheme available...without looking genuine to the average voter.  His morph from a moderate Republican to an extreme conservative doesn't feel right...because it's not.  He's just a politician.  His tax cuts in Massachusetts only created more property tax, combined with the excessive fee increases hurt the average Massachusetts taxpayer.  
Considering the mess the conservatives have gotten this country into, the folks in power now have left this country with a bad taste in its  mouth.  The 30 % that have held this country hostage for these years will not have a candidate they want.
They will have to cheap down thier expectations.
Prepare yourselves for the biggest whinning to come from the Christian conservatives when no listens to them anymore.  They are big cry-babies even when in power.
McCain is a TRUE patriot.  AND I do not know what poles you read but McCain would do well against the Clinton machine according to poles I have read.  He does appeal to independents like me.  
I am offended by your McStain comment.  You do not have to like him but he gave up 7 years of his life at Hanoi Hilton as a POW.  To that end he deserves your respect even though you wont give him your vote.
I get a kick out of people who think a debate can determine who will be elected president of this great country; thats like a firemen arriving at the scene of a fire with people traped and saying lets talk about this before we attempt a rescue. Give me a break; vote for the man who has seen many fires in Nam, and that man is "THE MAN" John McCain.
Gee, maybe someone would like to listen to idiotic Rush Limbaugh who is claiming that the "mainstream media" has a plan to "destroy Conservatives in this country."  Unbelievable that people listen to such a wacko hatemonger.  No wonder he's so paranoid!
Josh,

You have it all wrong. McCain is the only one who can attract both republicans and independents in the general election. If republicans want a republican in office then we must nominate McCain. These are facts, not just ignorant statements like i have seen from so many.
To Josh in KY, McCain is plenty conservative, but he's not an ultra-religious neo-con.  A neo-con, if nominated, will get smoked in the general...take it to the bank
Josh shows the right-wing mind at work.  The MSM's accurate (as opposed to "fair and balanced") report that Huckabee and McCain won means that MSM is "propping them up."  Guess the truth is biased.
Josh shows the right-wing mind at work.  The MSM's accurate (as opposed to "fair and balanced") report that Huckabee and McCain won means that MSM is "propping them up."  Guess the truth is biased.
I lived 20 years in AZ.  McCain is for real.  I am a democrat, but McCain does his own thinking, listens to his constituents, and is a liberal republican. Three thing president Bush isn't.  McCain may go all-the-way.
Huckabee is going to win South Carolina and John McCain will be his VP.  Romney will get a spot in  the Huckabee's cabinet.  We will win this election.  Obama will be taken down by all the Republican states, N.H. will vote Democrat anyway.  Maybe Iowa but I won't write it off.  New Mexico and Florida will swing our way.  The fair tax will be implemented and fairness will be American economic policy.
If you remember Jimmy Carter and his inability to get things done, think McCain. He has something the rest don't have, experience in congress and world politics and honesty.
Makes sense - John McCain is a solid candidate who has been through the wars, and projects a consistent, everyman type of character.  No need for the Republicans to look for a glamour factor since they are unlikely to win the general election
If you remember Jimmy Carter and his inability to get things done, think McCain. He has something the rest don't have, experience in congress and world politics and honesty.
Our greatest challenge in the future will be to keep this country safe for our children and grandchildren.  John McCain in the only one in either party that has shown the ability to do that in the past, the present and the future.  The economy, health care etc will not matter if we do not stay free.
Douglas, I'm sorry, but Hillary or Obama will get beaten in a general election against McCain - badly.

This is one moderate Republican who is praying that McCain gets the nomination.  
John McCain was a POW for 7 years.  That is 7 years of his life sitting in a hole in Viet Nam not knowing anything about anything.  That makes him worse presidential material not better.  I want a pres who will work for Americans and the hell with Iraq!
What are people thinking by voting for John MacAmnesty? I guess they do not mind being over ran by millions and millions of illegal immigrants that will take what few jobs are left in the country for half of what we work for,dont forget all the illegals granted amnesty will get to petition for all thier relatives.People better wake up its our kids future and standard of living at stake here.This election will decide Americas future and if we evolve into a third world country like mexico.
Our greatest challenge in the future will be to keep this country safe for our children and grandchildren.  John McCain in the only one in either party that has shown the ability to do that in the past, the present and the future.  The economy, health care etc will not matter if we do not stay free.
If McCain was smart enough not to accept the VP from Bush, he certainly wouldn't accept the offer from someone who comes in the cloth of GW Bush - Huckabee!

McCain has principle and integrity and won't comprise the people he serves by selling out to the neocons.

He is the only candidate with the complete package of moral integrity, honesty, experience, strength, and the capability of getting both parties to work together.
LOL!!!  Josh, you're an idiot. National polls consistently show that McCain is the strongest candidate the Republicans can field against either Hillary or Obama.  John McCain is the one true great man in this race. He totally kicked Mitt Romney's butt tonight and will do so again in Michigan in a few days.
Illeagal immigration affects everything in this country:  healthcare, education, the economy, and YES!  National Security.  McCain is soft on immigration.  He is not the Republican Nominee.
I like most of McCain's policies, but I can't support him because of his amnesty for illegals bill.
I believe that Romney would be the best choice.
Steve, why sorry?  we're all just guessing and observing at this early stage..
Joe, don't you know that people are sick to death of "Karl Rove" demonization politics?  This is why John McCain is winning.  He's running as a gentleman patriot...not as a cut-throat political venture capitalist.  People want more than the divisiveness - they want substance.  

Calling the honorable John McCain names isn't going to help your cause.  Tell your pal, Rush, that we're sick of the ugly politics.  Stick to the issues.
Huckabee will not get the nomination and neither he nor McCain particularly like Romney, so there will be no cabinet position "multiple Mitt" Flip Flopney! Chiristan conservatives have held sway in this country under the cintinually unfolding disaster that has been the Bush presidency and the average American is tired of it! There will be more independents and Democrats voting in this election than labor under the delusion that 4 or 8 more years of neo-conservative rule will prove them and Bush right. As Mitt Romney is the pick of the Bush family, please nominate him, so the Democrats can easily step over his dishonest, pandering hide and right into the White House!
To Joe from Goldman Ohio -

It ain't amnesty. They still have to apply to the INS, pay 5 grand, and then they pass background checks. I agree illegal imigration is a problem but if we just enforce the laws and punish American citizens from hiring them the demand for illegals to come here will dry up.
I don't have as much problems with Mexican immigrants, I respect them for their hard work ethic, religeous convictions, polite respect for others, and commitment to family. I have more problems with our larger US population of welfare collecting deadbeats who father illegimate children and expect the government to take care of them or give them a job.
I have to agree with Josh about MSM. First it was 'The Mitt Romney Show', then The Huckabee Show. FauxNews & others refused to let other candidates join debates and forums. ALL candidates should be heard, not just those whom THE CORPORATION wants us to hear. I believe that's what Josh meant by "propping them up".

Ron Paul is the best choice for America out of the Republicans. He tells it like it is...and the truth is scary! Rush Limbaugh is a complete idiot, but Americans SHOULD be paranoid! Get out of the sheep pen, quit watching & listening to MSM, a large chunk of which is owned by Rupert Murdoch (backing Ghouliani) and Mitt Romney. You can't believe the crap you're fed. Do the research yourselves. Your best bet is researching items online. Start with WhiteHouse.gov and search Bushco's Executive Orders and Presidential Directives. Then search for his Signing Statements.
WE ARE headed for a Police State, people! Bush gave himself the right to become a dictator back in May 2007 with new EOs. Check it out, sheeple! Don't rely on the Talking Heads to get paid big bucks to tell you what they're told to tell you!
As with so many liberals that take on conservative credentials at election time, McCain and Romney have done just that and sadly, voters, like lost sheep, fall for it...again and again and again.....wake up america, before it's too late. And no, conservatives didn't get us in the mess we're in, but the wanna be conservatives like GW Bush other republicans who hide under that guise did.
What "integrity" from Sen. McCain? Isn't he the candidate who correctly tagged the Falwells of the world, then spent time kissing up to them in a blatant attempt to kowtow to the same crowd? I cannot and will not ever consider him a man of principle and integrity after that sellout. To sell out for votes to that crowd and claim to be an "independent man of principle" while continuing to support an insane war is simply not acceptable.
Remember when Bush claimed he was a "uniter, not a divider" but then became just that and more?  And we wonder why our federal government can't get ANYTHING done.  McCain has proven he can compromise with the other side and actually get some work done - moreso than any other candidate from either party.  Now's the time for action, not childish quarreling.  It's time for a Moderate.
We need someone who will keep our country strong and safe.  Without this the debate about the economy, war, abortion, gun control, equal rights, gay and lesbian rights, states rights, big government, corporate greed, conservative vs. liberal etc. etc. is just conversation.
McCain/Obama-the unity ticket
The illegal immigration issue is a false one. If this country were to suddenly lose 8-12 million low-end workers we would be hit by a labor shortage and serious inflation. The Hispanics who come here overwhelmingly work hard, pay all sorts of taxes, and are socially conservative. That so many Republicans want to demonize them (and throw away the future of their party) shocks this Republican leaning independent. For me, crossing the Rio Grande is like jaywalking--big deal. It is a natural right for people to work and live where they please without government (any govt)interference. If you want people to stop coming here, pray for a depression. I'm for McCain all the way but I will only vote Rudy or Romney if the Dem nominee is Clinton.
I'm so glad to see that there are logical people out there. I'm an evangelical Christian but hate all the stereotypes found in that title. Whining? Sounds like someone else is whining Joe. I have always thought very highly of McCain and  no one will ever agree 100% with him on the issues because that is the way it works, but I do trust him 100% unlike other candidates. All these bad talking far right wingers are ridiculous to say things about him not being a hero. Walt, I don't even know what to say about you. Lets see how you do dealing with torture in a POW camp for 7 years and being left for dead. The man can't even comb his hair due to physical disabilities from the torture but he doesn't whine about it. he obviously isn't even holding anything against the Vietnamese for that time and that takes character(he's adopted kids from Vietnam so try and bad talk that act of kindess). Great public speakers aren't always good leaders so don't talk about debates. He has more experience in most issues then the other candidates combined. Sorry if I came of negative or condescending, but I can't let a real MAN get trashed  
You people who keep screaming "AMNESTY! AMNESTY!" are a real hoot. DO you seriously, in your wildest dreams, believe that the political will in this country exists to round up 12,000,000 people and deport them??? Forget it, OK? IT AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN!!! Like it or not, these people are going to have to be assimilated into American society, and candidates like John McCain and Rudy Giuliani understand this and aren't afraid to say it. Yes, the border nrrds to be secured first. But the way that people like Mitt Romney have shamelessly demagouged this particular issue disgusts me. (By the way, this is the same Mitt Romney who, in 2005, called Bush's approach to immigration reform "sensible" and "not amnesty"). Do you people think you're likely to get a better deal on immigration from an Obama or a Clinton presidency?  Well, if the Republicans are stupid enough to nominate a sure loser like Huckabee or Romney, that exactly what we'll get.
McCain is probably a very good man but I disagree with any canadate that thinks along the line of giving these people here illegally citizenship.  I lived amoung these people for a number of years and they were always telling me how this country should belong to them or Mexico.  I asnd my family have give to muchy to this country to give it over to these people and beleive me I know why they are it is to colonize us
McCain has flip flopped as much as Romney.  His campaign has been called the double talk express.  I think McCain has a good chance to get the nomination but not as good as Romney.  If McCain wins, I think his chances of getting elected are about as good as Bob Dole's were.    
Apparently none of you saw John McCain on Meet the Press Sunday when he said he had no problem keeping us in Iraq for the next 100 years.  Unless you all want to live in a bankrupt country that is forced to invoke the draft, I really think you ought to rethink John McCain.  I appreciate his service to this country, but I will never understand why he would risk the possibility of any our young soldiers suffering the way that he did when it is completely unnecessary for us to be there in the first place.  He should know better than any of the candidates that war is hell and want to get out of it and yet he wants to stay in it forever.  

Our country is going into a recession from this war and it is evident in every aspect of every one of your lives whether you are intelligent enough to acknowledge it or not.  

I'm afraid none of the Republicans, other than Ron Paul, have a chance in hell against the Democrats.  This country is done with the war, the lies we have been told about it and what it has done to our economy.
The Immigration bill was a comprehensive bill that was very detailed. You can easily find bits and pieces that you don't like. People looked at the small details and not the whole picture. The Big Picture was that Bush and McCain were trying to get something done that may have a chance in correcting the current approach we have to Immigration. It was worth a shot since nothing at this moment seems to be working anyways. Yes we need to secure our borders and that does need to be addressed first. Then lets go back to that bill and try giving it another shot.
Hello so-called Conservative republicans!!. You people really need to wake up. Only John MaCain can beat any democratic candidate in the general election. He is the only republican who can attract the reagan democrate, republicans and independents. I understand your uneasiness with MaCain but you people really open up your mindset. As I understand the conservatives main goal are as follows:
1. National security 2. Limited Govt and spending control, 3. Lowering Taxes 4. Supreme Court Judges

Out of these issues, John MaCain fits all of the above. The main problem you have with him are immigration and campaign finance reform. As you know he has moderated his position about immigration. And you will never find any candidate who would fit every issue you may have imagined.

He needs to get your respect due to his service to this country.

On top of that, just imagine what would happen if any democrate wins the general election?

In short, you people need get over your few issues and back him up to win the general election.

McCain is the best choice for America. I worked for him in the early 90's and he does have high integrity, even with the momentary pandering to the theocrats. The worst choice would be Huckabee - we do not need another non-intellectual, theocratic ideologue Govenor from the South. G Bush pushed this country into the American Dark Ages and Huckabee would keep us there for another four years (which I do not think we could socially or economically survive). Yes, McCain has faults but he always has been willing to fight for the average American and we desparately need a champion of the American people, not for American Big Business.
Hello so-called Conservative republicans!!. You people really need to wake up. Only John MaCain can beat any democratic candidate in the general election. He is the only republican who can attract the reagan democrate, republicans and independents. I understand your uneasiness with MaCain but you people really open up your mindset. As I understand the conservatives main goal are as follows:
1. National security 2. Limited Govt and spending control, 3. Lowering Taxes 4. Supreme Court Judges

Out of these issues, John MaCain fits all of the above. The main problem you have with him are immigration and campaign finance reform. As you know he has moderated his position about immigration. And you will never find any candidate who would fit every issue you may have imagined.

He needs to get your respect due to his service to this country.

On top of that, just imagine what would happen if any democrate wins the general election?

In short, you people need get over your few issues and back him up to win the general election.

Why I am happy mitt romney lost the Flip Flopper

In his 1994 US Senate run, Romney backed two gun-control measures strongly opposed by the National Rifle Association and other gun-rights groups: the Brady Bill, which imposed a five-day waiting period on gun sales, and a ban on certain assault weapons.

"That's not going to make me the hero of the NRA," Romney told the Boston Herald in 1994.

At another campaign stop that year, he told reporters: "I don't line up with the NRA."
- Boston Globe, January 14, 2007  Read the article
John MaCain is the only candidate with principles, not like other candidates always flip-up based on the public poll.
I don't have as much problems with Mexican immigrants, I respect them for their hard work ethic, religeous convictions, polite respect for others, and commitment to family.
I have more problems with our larger US population of welfare collecting deadbeats who father illegimate children and expect the government to take care of them or give them a job. Ace, Woodlands, TX

You just listed the problems of illegal immigration.

You don't think that this group is a drain on our welfare system, or having children at the expense of tax payers? You pretend they have no effect on crime?
It is amnesty, no one will pay $5000.00 it will be a grant of some sort, and they stay here while they apply and during background checks. Week borders equals weak national security. I am glad you agree with punishing the Americans who hire illegals, but they break the law to get her. Why do you only want to punish Americans? I think it is a shame when a Texan wants to cater to Mexico and punish our citizens. It's about time Mexico figured out why Mexicans have to leave that country to live. They tell us we should relax on immigration but are far more strict on their own southern borders.
Jo, the US has been in Western Europe for over 60 years and South Korea for over 50, and fought wars in both places that cost far more lives and inflation adjusted dollars than Iraq. The result was a Soviet free Europe and secure South Korea and Japan which allowed for the impressive economic growth of the United States in the second half of the twentieth century. IF, the US could get a more stable Middle East by staying in Iraq for a 100 years, it wouldn't be a bad deal imo. And the only people I ever hear talking about a draft are Democrats.  
McCain, while a war hero (so was JFK, Bush #1, etc), is another out-of-touch hawk who will continue down the same destructive and misguided path that GW has taken this country in the last 8 years. Everyone knows we need a change in course. McCain is not the person to do that.





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