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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Why McCain won

Posted: Tuesday, January 08, 2008 9:22 PM by Domenico Montanaro

From NBC's Norah O'Donnell, Barbara Bernhard, and Adam Verdugo
McCain's success in the Granite State was due in large part to the presence of independent voters. About four in 10 GOP voters were independents, and he won this group by a sizeable margin. He edged out Mitt Romney among registered Republicans.
 
He was the leader on voter judgments about his ability to handle international situations. Almost half of the GOP voters cited either the war in Iraq or terrorism as the most important issue facing the country. McCain led by a large margin among both of these groups of voters.
 
Of the Republican voters who said the war in Iraq was the top issue, McCain beat Romney 2-to-1. About two in 10 Republicans mentioned terrorism as their top concern. Again, McCain took those voters with 43 percent compared to Romney's 24 percent.

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McCain is old and more importantly looks old.  Unfortunately, that matters.  Also, did you watch his "victory speech?"  The man had to read off a cue card the whole time!  He would lose against either Clinton or Obama because performance in front of the cameras matters in a national presidential election.  
As a Republican, there are two things I know.  One, I would never vote for Paul.  Two, I would never vote Huckabee.  I'm looking for a moderate president as I am tired of a president that is so beholden to a certain segment that it influences his every action.  I would like a president that is strong on national defense, strong on fiscal policy, and a realist on social policy.  Right now, that candidate looks like McCain.
If any Republican could get Democrats to cross over, it's McCain.  Not because of his positions, but because he doesn't reek of calculation.
Jo,

If you really think we are going to be able to pull out of Iraq, you haven't learned anything from history. We went to war with Japan; We are still there. We went to war with Germany; We are still there. We went to war with Korea; We are still there. We went to war in Kosovo; We are still there. We went to war in Kuwait/Iraq the first time; We are still there. You are probably saying "what about Vietnam?" Do we really want to totally pull out of Iraq and leave a vacum like we did in Veitnam. For all of our safety, in regards to the war on terrorism, I think not. We left a vacum in Afganistan after the Russians and who set up shop? Osama set up camp. This is something that John McCain understands and that most Americans don't. Hopefully this is a lesson for us all to remember before we try another military solution.

By the way, I am mormon and Mitt is one of the most unauthentic canidates out there.  If you want Bush III, vote for Romeny. God help us all if that happens.
CuriousMind! If limited government, spending control and lower taxes are near the top of Conservatives' lists, McCain is through! We know better. And the Dems would eat him alive in a general election on his votes against the Bush tax cuts and his inability to slow, much less stop, the growth of Congressional spending in 20 years in Washington! We know that too! And if you think he's going to really take on any of his "esteemed colleagues from across the aisle" in the Senate when the times comes, think again. He wants people to like him too much. He's been an appeaser for the other side for too long. And he's been on the wrong side of the issue too many times for the conservative base to trust him.

But Romney provides a fresh face, a fresh view, and fresh ideas to fix what's wrong with Washington. He's proven that he can remain conservative while attracting voters from the center, and that he can get things done even when the political deck was stacked against him in Massachusetts.  He's got the brains, the energy, the money and the organization to go the distance. And he won't be afraid to meet the Democratic challenger head on, fight tooth and nail, and come out on top.

If you want a conservative candiate who can actually win the White house in November, Romney is head and shoulders above EVERYONE, including McCain.
You all make interesting (OK, *most* of you) arguements on who will win and why.  However, you've all forgotten the determining factor in Presidential elections since Kennedy first debated Nixon on TV - Media Image!  Give it some thought and you'll realize I'm right, every candidate that one the Presidency did so because his media image was better than his opponent's.  Granted, not all of them were *favored* by the Media (GWB), but their *image* was better.  So the real question is who has the best media image this time around?  Considering the fact that he's got the big O's backing I'd have to say Obama. He's certainly not plain vanilla (McCain), nor is he shifty (Gulliani, Romney) or a religious nut job (Huckabee).  Sure, Clinton has a pretty good media image, but she's too divisive.  Don't believe me? Ask all the women you know and see if even 1/2 of them will vote for her.  If she can't get majority support from her own gender (esp. the afforementioned big O) then how's she going to get enough votes to win?
Since this whole thing started(when everyone announced they werein the race), I've seen many things brought up, some things idiotic, some had no revelance yo being President, it's gonna be a long year.

I agree John McCain deserves our respect and gratitude, and does not deserve name calling. He is not my choice for President though. I disagree with alot of his policies.

I have serious issues with Gov. Huckabee and definatly will not get my vote.

So I geuss that leaves Mitt Romney and Rudy Guliani, which in my opinion is the best choice.

My question to you all is this, with The idea of these illegals, do you really believe they will pay their fines? I don't.

McCain is not a cookie-cutter Conservative. He thinks for himself and is well known as a maverick who refuses to tow anybodies party line.

He is also one of the most honest men in politics and he doesn't fit any mold -- he makes his own mold.

How does McCain plan to pay for his continued occupation of Iraq? Maybe he’ll charge it to his new $1,000,000,000,000 credit line MasterCard at a hefty 29.99% APR and then send the bill to the American taxpayer. For a man who touts fiscal conservatism, McCain would be wise to adopt a sensible foreign policy. Dilapidating our defense, civil liberties and financial resources are a far greater threat to this country than radical Islam.
As a life long dem who has voted for repubs, I have to say that if you want a real race in the general election you should vote for McCain. He is your best bet, but being a dem, I know you will not listen to me. Oh well won't be the last time you vote for fear over facts. See you in the general.
All of this ''old man''garbage leveled at McCain is just that. Paulites will be reminded that he is only a few years younger than McCain yet was hoisted up as a savior to the nation only short weeks before his sound thrashing in Iowa and NH. Then too,one need look no farther than Congress,where fossils[more in fact,than are now in the La Brea Tar Pits],abound. We have a ninety year old Senate Pro Tempore [Byrd[D-WVA],who is so senile that he cannot construct simple sentances,and interrupts hearings in order to have someone act as dictionary to define commonly used english words. Yet this man,like a Thurmond in his day or a Stevens or Lantos[before his resignation from cancer],is dependably sent back to Washington election after election.
WHY IT'S MIT:

HE'S GOT ISSUES. . .BUT WITH 5 KIDS-IT AIN'T ABORTION.
I posted this on another thread yesterday, but it's worth repeating with all this talk of illegal immigration.  These are not my words- but an important email I received.  It's long, so it'll take 3 or 4 posts, but it's worth it.

From a California school teacher - - -

  "As you listen to the news about the student protests over illegal immigration, there are some things that you should be aware of:

  I am in charge of the English-as-a-second-language department at a large southern California high school which is designated a Title 1 school, meaning that its students average lower sociol economic and income levels.

  Most of the schools you are hearing about, South Gate High, Bell Gardens, Huntington Park, etc., where these students are protesting, are also Title 1 schools.

  Title 1 schools are on the free breakfast and free lunch program. When I say free breakfast, I'm not talking a glass of milk and roll -- but a full breakfast and cereal bar with fruits and juices that would make a Marriott proud.  The waste of this food is monumental, with trays and trays of it being dumped in the trash uneaten. (OUR TAX DOLLARS AT WORK)

 I estimate that well over 50% of these student s are obese or at least moderately overweight. About 75% or more DO have cell phones. The school also provides day care centers for the unwed teenage pregnant girls (some as young as 13) so they can attend class without the inconvenience of having to arrange for babysitters or having family watch their kids. (OUR TAX DOLLARS AT WORK)
"  I was ordered to spend $700,000 on my department or risk losing funding for the upcoming year even though there was little need for anything; my budget was already substantial..  I ended up buying new computers for the computer learning center, half of which, one month later, have been carved with graffiti by the appreciative students who obviously feel humbled and grateful to have a free education in America. (OUR TAX DOLLARS AT WORK)

I have had to intervene several times for young and substitute teachers whose classes consist of many illegal immigrant students here in the country less then 3 months who raised so much hell with the female teachers, calling them "Putas" whores and throwing things that the teachers were in tears.

 Free medical, free education, free food, day care etc., etc, etc. Is it any wonder they feel entitled to not only be in this country but to demand rights, privileges and entitlements?

 To those who want to point out how much these illegal immigrants contribute to our society because they LIKE their gardener and housekeeper and they like to pay less for tomatoes: spend some time in the real world of illegal immigration and see the TRUE costs.

Higher insurance, medical facilities closing, higher medical costs, more crime, lower standards of education in our schools, overcrowding, new diseases etc., etc, etc. For me, I'll pay more for tomatoes.

 We need to wake up. The guest worker program will be a disaster because we won't have the guts to enforce it.   Does anyone in their right mind really think they will voluntarily leave and return?"
 "There are many hardworking Hispanic/American citizens that contribute to our country and many that I consider my true friends. We should encourage and accept those Hispanics who have done it the right and legal way.

 It does, however, have everything to do with culture: A third-world culture that does not value education, that accepts children getting pregnant and dropping out of school by 15 and that refuses to assimilate, and an American culture that has become so weak and worried about "politically correctness" that we don't have the will to do anything about it.

 CHEAP LABOR?
 Isn't that what the whole immigration issue is about?
 Business doesn't want to pay a decent wage. Consumers don't want expensive produce.

 Government will tell you Americans don't want the jobs.  But the bottom line is cheap labor. The phrase "cheap labor" is a myth, a farce, and a lie. there is no such thing as "cheap labor."
Take, for example, an illegal alien with a wife and five children. He
takes a job for $5.00 or $6.00/hour.  At that wage, with six dependents, he
pays no income tax,  yet at the end of the year, if he files an Income Tax
Return,  he gets an "earned income credit" of up to $3,200 free.

He qualifies for Section 8 housing and subsidized rent.  He qualifies for food stamps. He qualifies for free (no deductible, no co-pay) health care.  His children get free breakfasts and lunches at school.  He requires bilingual teachers and books. He qualifies for relief from high energy bills.

If they are or become, aged, blind or disabled, they qualify for SSI.  Once qualified for SSI they can qualify for Medicare.  All of this is at (our) taxpayer's expense.

He doesn't worry about car insurance, life insurance, or homeowners
insurance. Taxpayers provide Spanish language signs, bulletins and printed material.

He and his family receive the equivalent of $20.00 to $30.00/hour in benefits.  Working Americans are lucky to have $5.00 or $6.00/hour left after paying their bills and his. The American taxpayers also pay for increased crime, graffiti and trash clean-up.
 
Cheap labor? YEAH RIGHT!    Wake up people. THESE ARE THE QUESTIONS WE SHOULD BE ADDRESSING TO THE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES FOR EITHER PARTY. AND WHEN THEY LIE TO US AND DON'T DO AS THEY SAY, WE SHOULD REPLACE THEM AT ONCE!'"
So, on that note, do I think it's feasible to round up 12 million people and send them back?  No, but the threat and some action would be a step in the right direction.  McCain's plan will not work- it will just encourage more people to come, since it's not much of a punishment and takes less time than waiting your turn.  Plus, how does he plan on collecting the $5000 per person?  Good luck with that too.  Illegals should not be allowed to skip in line.  There are lots of wonderful hispanics and others who are here legally and a great benefit to our society.  But the illegals need to learn to come right or not come... "Let the punishment fit the crime".... and nobody should be allowed to gain full citizen ship until they can speak, write, and read the national language- ENGLISH!


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