The Clinton-Obama gender divide

Posted: Tuesday, January 08, 2008 10:00 PM by Domenico Montanaro

From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
There is a real gender divide in this race. Obama leads among men, 42%-30%, and by a similar margin, Clinton leads among women, 47%-34%. This is a real difference from Iowa, where Obama actually BEAT Clinton among women.

He also defeated her in Iowa by wide margins among independents and young voters. Tonight, Obama leads among Independents (43%-31%) again, but not by the whopping margin he led by in Iowa. And he’s trailing among Democrats significantly (45%-34%). In Iowa, he actually beat Clinton by a point among Democrats. Among youth voters, he is way ahead among 18-24 year olds (61%-22%), but he is actually trailing among 25-29 year olds (37%-34%). The under-30 vote is about 18% of the vote, slightly lower than the 22% that came out in Iowa. The combined under-30 vote is 51%-28% Obama -- not as large a margin for Obama as it was in Iowa.

EMAIL THIS

Comments

Bill won NH for Hillary and the rest of the country shouldn't be that easily fooled, Hillary is not the answer for America, Obama will be back and will win the nomination or get ready for at least 4 years of right wing politics.

Josh Thorstad, Sun Prairie, WI (Sent Tuesday, January 08, 2008 11:19 PM)

Yeah,

I just heard on NPR a few women voters who were set to vote Obama voted for tears instead... What I take from this? Nothing wins an election like crying. I guess we should all throw tantrums when we are on the receiving end... when everything is bleak we should stop quiver our lip a little and squeeze out a couple of tears. Maybe if I did that someone would hire me and I wouldn't be in such a rut... Obama gave me hope... all is not lost, but one thing I did decide is if Hillary gets the nomination she is never getting my vote. I am sick of dirty politics and as genuine or in-genuine as those tears were they definitely were not clean, she might as well have squeezed her handkerchief into the ballot box.

Alex, Oakland, CA (Sent Tuesday, January 08, 2008 11:24 PM)

I don't care if Obama or Hillary wins the nomination, just as long as they stay in it to the tenth round and beat each other into a bloody pulp and tear apart the Democratic party. I will pay for front row seats for that.

Keith Hansen (Sent Tuesday, January 08, 2008 11:24 PM)

Mike Bloomberg is sitting at home relishing Clinton's victory...

David, Indiana (Sent Tuesday, January 08, 2008 11:24 PM)

Can anyone here name ONE THING any of these candidates has done FOR AMERICA. All I have ever seen any of them do is work to escalate their own popularity. Sad . . . the masses are buying it as always.

John Turner, Erie, KS (Sent Tuesday, January 08, 2008 11:26 PM)

This is clearly a more "sexist" election than a "racist" one. Obama does not make note of his race near as much as Hillary plays the feminist, female tricks to gain votes. Now she almost breaks down in an obvious ploy, will she cry foul and the victim of men, when things don't go right in her presidency?

Jerry, appleton, wi (Sent Tuesday, January 08, 2008 11:29 PM)

On Hilary's win " Yuck." What does New Hampshire know?

Demian,Sonoma, CA (Sent Tuesday, January 08, 2008 11:30 PM)

As a Republican, I have no dog in this fight, but I think the pollsters have some serious explaining to do. Sure, Matthews et al. may have their favorites, but based on the numbers we were looking at Obama was supposed to win by as many as 10 points. That is pretty far off. My guess is that young voters who caucused enthusiastically in Iowa reverted to form and voted in low numbers in NH. Agree?

Karl U. Rome NY (Sent Tuesday, January 08, 2008 11:30 PM)

I am a hispanic Democrat who is NOT VOTING FOR A DEMOCRAT. Neither one of our candidates have done anything to warrant attention. How many days have they been in the Senate this year, doing work for ME? Not many. They should at least return the money that they are paid. Why arent they at least trying to get work done in the Senate. PSHHH. Please they are WEAK. Clinton has tears, and Obama votes PRESENT. WEAK. I dont want someone who cries or someone who will sign Present onto anything. OBAMA is weak Come on I want someone who can unite this country, McCain is the one who can do it. He has my vote. And he can fight Illegal immigration

Dick C denver colorado (Sent Tuesday, January 08, 2008 11:33 PM)

I agree with Don Wynn. Also, it should be said that the drama of media journalists recently has become too much part of the process. When one candidate was up in the polls, a huge sway of opinion followed. It was like the Titanic... Given that the democractic primaries are unprecedented with an African-american and a woman running... the media opinion seems irrelevant in its extremes and its inaccuracy. Be cautious, be strong...

MH Pierce (Sent Tuesday, January 08, 2008 11:35 PM)

Laura G.: You assert that any Democrat who says that they will vote Republican if Hillary is the nominee is a fake. I am a lifelong Democrat, I have voted for only two Republicans, neither for President and...drumroll please...If Hillary and McCain are the nominees I will vote for McCain. If Hillary and not McCain I will register a protest 3rd party vote.

Rob Beckwith (Sent Tuesday, January 08, 2008 11:37 PM)

Fake tears...so-called savvy female voters of NH fell for it!!! If she is the nominee, I'm voting republican...if you're gagging for "experience" then McCain is miles ahead.

Natasha B, New Haven, CT

WELL PUT...I am not one of the rabid Clinton haters, but they exhaust me with their attack ads and negative rhetoric...IF its McCain v. Clinton I'm going mcCain, if its Obama v. McCain Im going Obama and if its Clinton v. any other republican....I going to write in Ron paul haha, how bout that?!

Vince Madison, NJ (Sent Tuesday, January 08, 2008 11:38 PM)

I've always voted as a democrat but this week I have realized what my republican friends have been telling me about the clintons all these years. Liars, fakes, and willing to do anything to win an election. I commend the voters of N.H for making the race go on to vet the candidates, but if Hillary wins the nomination, I'm writing in Bloomberg or voting liberterian.

Hillary is by far not electable - the only thing that will bring the GOP together is Hillary.

Hillary's stealing of both Edward's and Obama's message of 'change, hope, young folks, and fighting for you' is repugnant and reminds me of Romney's similar tactics. And Bill's Fairy Tale speech was the straw that broke it. Um, do your research and it was the Clinton's changed positions on the way - not Obama. What a liar and I defended him for Monica-gate because it was about sex and not national security? No - he'll do and say anything for power. I will never vote for Clinton and I'm a democrat.

jp (Sent Tuesday, January 08, 2008 11:39 PM)

teehee..teehee...teehee.

This is why women should not have the right to vote. As a republican I am PUMPED. McCain will turn Hillary "Kankles" Clinton into his his personal Monica come the fall. Anyone have an extra cigar? John may need them.

Ignatius Reilly (Sent Tuesday, January 08, 2008 11:41 PM)

As a former organizer for the Dean Campaign, a Government major in college, and a resident (at one time or another) of three vastly different parts of the US, I think Hillary may have blown the game for us Democrats.

Personally, I think the teary eyes and cracking voice were staged. You can't tell me that she held-up like a battleship so far, without a twitch, and suddenly cracked. She's to disciplined and her handlers are too smart for that to be a mistake. As other posters have suggested, the end result in NH may have been women coming to the defense of a seemingly-embattled Clinton at the polls.

This creates a HUGELY dangerous precedent. If savaging Clinton immediately leads to charges of sexism, it isn't too hard to imagine that savaging Obama could lead to charges of racism. Two groups of the Democratic electorate trading shots about who has been more marginalized does not seem like a desirable outcome heading into the general election. It would make my party look like a collection of whining interest groups trying to out-victim eachother, which is precisely how conservatives have portrayed the Dems for years. I hope the Clinton camp put a nice bow on this gift when they handed it to the GOP.

Mike, Somerville MA (Sent Tuesday, January 08, 2008 11:55 PM)

What an exciting primary! The voters, the candidates, the pollsters and the pundits are all off balance. It is turning into the most stunning and exciting election I'ver ever seen. Americans are involved and turning out in droves to vote and nothing could be better for our country. Viva Democracy!

Gale Wheat (Sent Tuesday, January 08, 2008 11:55 PM)

Obama is a great orator, but how good is his execution? The reason so many of us are backing Hillary is because we can see that her heart is in the right place AND she will know how to be an executive. Obama has the vision, but it takes a lot more than that. And people really seem to forget that Obama is very very liberal. I just don't think that is where our country is. I think Obama needs to convince me some more that he is the right choice with more specific answers on how he would execute his vision.

As for the buffons known as the media, they have no clue. What they are seeing tonight and what they have seen in IOWA is democracy at work. It's been so long they do not know how to describe it. They can call it the gender divide, the race divide, Teargate, whatever spin they want. At the end of the day people are pretty fed up of our democracy being dragged throught the mud. The media cannot seem to recognize that.

S. Bajaj Houston, TX (Sent Tuesday, January 08, 2008 11:58 PM)

I volunteered for Hillary in New Hampshire and she won for four reasons. First, we were the only ones that held signs from 8AM to 7PM at many of the polls where voters were still making up their minds as we greeted them. Volunteers for all other candidates left their signs in the snow and people coming to the polls could see that Hillary's supporters were going to go the distance.

Secondly, Senator Obama during the debate on Saturday night stressed that he was going to listen to people, but what the people saw for the next 48 hours was that Hillary was the candidate willing to sit and listen to people and Barack was going to deliver more speeches at people - a one way communication. This emphasized what every older woman knows-while you may love to hear the words, you have to watch the behavior because that will tell you when you're hearing the truth.

Third, everyone knows that our beloved New England Patriots will not send out their least experienced players as they battle for the next Superbowl title and neither will the Democrats in this Presidential race. Hillary did a great job of contrasting her differences in the last debate and not running away from her own experiences in answering the call for change from Edwards and Obama.

And finally,when it comes to change...well every woman knows that every MOM in America has a little jar or box or drawer of "change", a little something that she has put away sometimes for years and years. And while she may not often or ever go to that secret place for herself she will break out the "change" when those she loves need it most...and Hillary knows America need it now.

Dale, Lynn, MA (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 12:04 AM)

well Hillary go ahead and be the first women president of our country

jacob, san jose, california (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 12:14 AM)

Congratulations Hillary! The country needs a smart, wise woman.

Bobbi J., Bremerton, WA

Bobbi J, Bremerton, WA (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 12:14 AM)

I don't understand all the black/white conflict with Obama. After all, he's both.
I'm at a greater loss understanding the gender thing. Hillary is Bill, was, is, and shall ever be.
He always was a charmer.

Greg Severs, Memphis, TN (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 12:16 AM)

Sen. Clinton cannot win the presidency when half of the Democrats (incl. me) want to punish her and Bill for his wasted presidency (only a couple notches above W's worst ever - which we're living through now) and most Independents rightly view her as the most dangerous and divisive candidate in the race. For those of you not around in 1968, this is a very similar time: Rome was burning and the Dem leadership fiddled around to nominate Hubert Humphrey! A Clinton nomination will turn another generation off to politics and motivate massive Dem crossovers to Rep or Ind candidates.

Mike Feuerstein, Lone Tree, CO (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 12:21 AM)

Why does the press refer to Sen.Obama as the "African American"canidate?What about his white half.Why does Hillary have to be referred to as the woman canidate.Why can't they all just be called canidates.

ellen meuleman Harrison maine (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 12:21 AM)

No one can quiver a lip like the Clintons!!

Judy Z (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 12:23 AM)

If that had been a man whose voice cracked talking about his reasons for running for office, everyone would be oohing and aahing about how strong his convictions were, and how strongly he feels about his role in politics. Just because Hillary is a woman, men everywhere immediately dismiss her as being too emotional. Why am I not surprised? We've been dismissed as the weaker sex since the beginning of time. Maybe that "female weakness" is exactly what this country needs. And those of you who think it was all staged - you can't fake that kind of emotion that well.

Emily Smith, Salem, Oregon (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 12:24 AM)

First, as a woman, I would love to have a woman president. However, Hillary being elected to the White House would put as back 50 years before another was elected. She is simply unlikable to too many people. Regardless of how I feel about her policies, she is too dividing to ever accomplish anything. You either love her or hate her. I would vote for a Republican before I would vote for her on that basis alone.

I too, feel that all of the "heartfelt moments" yesterday were staged. The timing was too perfect and the responses too planned to be real. Additionally, I am disgusted IF this is the reason that women changed their votes. A few tears does not a president make.

While I am currently an Obama or Edwards supporter, I truly hope Edwards drops out because he can't win. His votes would mostly transfer to Obama and we could be done with Hillary.

35 years of experience? I will give you the years in the senate, but being the wife of a politician does not give you political experience. For her to be so gung ho on the healthcare reform issues - do you really believe it? She has accepted more money from the insurance industries than anyone else in the Democratic party. You can't talk about one thing and then have your actions show another.

I just frankly don't believe her. You don't change your personality that much over night. PLEASE America, do not put this person into office. I would love to see another female president in my lifetime and this would ruin it for us for a long time.

Me, Dallas, TX (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 12:24 AM)

For all the talk I hear amongst us Democrats of wanting meaningful change, Hillary's victory tonight reminds me that some of us aren't really ready for it. The status quo won tonight on a symbolic level (since Hillary is the embodiment of the status quo) and on a practical matter (since Hillary will get crushed in the general election if she's nominated - especially if McCain gets the nomination, which seems likely at this point). Time and time again, I've been disheartened by the unwillingness of Democrats to stand up to real change, and sadly enough, tonight is no exception. So so disappointing.

Obama for President!

ST, Houston, TX (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 12:25 AM)

As a women over 55 I cannot believe that women do not see through the 'stand by my man'mentality of Hillary. As a community activist, she is not a women I look up to - I see many women on a daily basis that are much stronger than she is. She does not know what real life is, I believe the future is in Obama. It is the time for the torch to pass to the next generation. I see Obama as the new Bobby Kennedy. (After his death I don't see that my generation ever recovered or found someone to his equal)

Laura, Mtka., MN (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 12:25 AM)

Regarding anyone who says they are a Democrat and will not vote for Clinton in November being a fake. I am a Democrat, not a fake. I voted for McGovern, Carter twice, Mondale, Dukakis, Gore and Kerry; but I will not under any circumstances vote for that fraud.

john olson (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 12:25 AM)

Don Wynn's second paragraph (above) is the best in the whole thread.

Take a bow, Don.

Everyone else take a breather.

Jim, Evergreen, CO (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 12:26 AM)

As a man, and a Democrat, I say great job Hillary.You guys that are making a big stink about nothing. If Hillary and Bill staged the, so called "events", it is nothing that men running for President have not done in the past. What happens, will happen. Just thank God that whoever wins(I am pro-Hillary), it is not another Bush. And Men have messed things up for long enough. Lets see what a women can do. Talk about breaking that glass ceiling. I think that is what all the guys are crying about. A female President. She is tough, intelligent, and knows her stuff. I say lets give Her a chance. I would be proud to call Hillary President.

J.D San Diego, California (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 12:26 AM)

Go Hillary.....
I could not vote for OBama, not enough experience.
All tag lines, reminds me of Bush.
If I want a rock star I'll pay the $100 to go see him sing but not as president. By the way, I'm black and just turned 25. Go Hillary!!!!

Chris G, LA,CA (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 12:27 AM)

Women of New Hampshire...what were you thinking?! Hillary's "tears" were obviously a ploy. I would love to see a woman President - once we have a forward-thinking nondivisive woman who can lead this country. In the meantime, let's get behind the person who has shown an ability to lead, a true commitment to improving people's lives, the real advocate for change...OBAMA.

AnnE Kingston, NY (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 12:27 AM)

I do not get to vote in the primary election until March 3...I truly resent the fact that everyone has all but decided who is in and who is out when only 2 states have voted. I would think in modern times it would make more sense and be more accurate for everyone to vote in a primary on the same day and using the same guidelines. It makes no sense to me to have eveeryone doing their own thing with all sorts of different rules. Also I am deeply disappointed in MSNBC news in taking sides and obviously bashing Hillary...sounds like Fox News to me and guess I will turn my tv to CNN from now on. I have rooted for Edwards since the start. I have been a devout Democrat for 40 years, but if Obama is the Democratic candidate, I will probably vote Republican for the first time, or maybe even an Independent. I try to vote for the best person for the job, and I do not believe Obama is that person.

Cathy Axline (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 12:29 AM)

senator clinton's win in NH makes the dem race more interesting. i think most on this blog have it right, if she is the nominee then many dems would be willing to vote rep or indep. from how it is shaping up, obama seems to have the appeal that can attract the moderate reps, uncertain independents, and all the democrats. the party needs to consider the mood of the country first if they trully want to reclaim the white house and crown hillary their leader. winning in the general elections will need more than a harking back to the good old days, it will require a vision for a very different future.

joe m. hillsboruogh, nc (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 12:29 AM)

"I'm glad Hillary won is that Iowa and NH now don't get to decide for us, the people who live in other states (CA in my case), who our Democratic nominee should be. Now, the rest of us will have a chance to cast our votes that actually mean something later on. Finally, I'm gratified that a black man and a woman each won a presidential primary for the first time ever in our country." I have to totally agree with D Wynn from CA. I'm very happy that our input will count for something now rather than just those in IA & NH.

C Skourup (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 12:30 AM)

Im sure america Finally ,got it rigth ,please keep voting for the best next President ,stay away from male or female,from black or white ,don't allow the media to vote for you,lisen to smart words and Presidential carisma .Im sure Hillary will be our Best Choice,I hope you have the same oppinion.

kevin balboa (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 12:32 AM)

Hmmmm the republicans will win because the democrats can't unite on a candidate because there is a female and a male running. Huckabee all the way

Virgil, Richmond, Kentucky (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 12:32 AM)

I am an African American woman and would not vote for a candidate based on race or gender. Our first lady's politics are more consistent with a moderate republican than the democratic party that I support. My first choice is John Edwards followed by Senator Obama. It seems that we are easily distracted by side issues and not those that greatly influence how we live and what policies do or do not support our constitution and the general welfare of our society. Maybe it would be beneficial for us to insist that issues be discussed rather than tears, hair or skin color.

T Collins, Minneapolis, Minnesota (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 12:33 AM)

It just goes to show you that the youth in America still can't spot a judas in the crowd... Let's look into Obama's past a bit and see what you come up with. He has more skeletons in his closet than a science teacher at medical school.

Al, Chicago Illinois (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 12:35 AM)

Didn't America learn its lesson and face enough critism the first 8 years under the Clinton (behind every man there is a strong woman) regime? Are we really even considering letting them in the white house again?!

Jill, Tulsa, OK (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 12:37 AM)

It's a sad day for America today.But I still believe Obama has a chance.

Gilberto (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 12:37 AM)

Good luck Hillary, I am proud of you. I am lo0king forward to you becoming our next president. It is time we show the men of this contry we can do something beside cook, clean and have babies. we have a brain that work just as well as their. We can plan, run a city, state or country. In doing so we can still run our home. We as women are able to do more then one thing and that is what we have over the men in this country, so men get over it Hillary will be our next president. She will show you how a contry is suppose to be, not for just a few but all of us. I am a black female and very proud of it.

valeriam. smith (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 12:37 AM)

Are you all kidding. We just need to get the Repubicans out of office. Either Obama or Clinton will work for me. Don't forget about the party that got us into this war, voted against funding medical coverage for yes, that's right, children. A vote for a Republican is a vote to continue the same course - business as usual. Vote Democratic....

Barbara - Los Angeles (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 12:37 AM)

Good luck Hillary, I am proud of you. I am looking forward to you becoming our next president. It is time we show the men of this contry we can do something beside cook, clean and have babies. we have a brain that work just as well as their. We can plan, run a city, state or country. In doing so we can still run our home. We as women are able to do more then one thing and that is what we have over the men in this country, so men get over it Hillary will be our next president. She will show you how a contry is suppose to be, not for just a few but all of us. I am a black female and very proud of it.

valeriam. smith (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 12:38 AM)

Let's be fair ....Hillary should win!!!!!.I have been watching both of them really closly for past 4 months.So far now she seems to be the right candidate.The only reason Obama has been gaining popularity is because of OPRAH, which was kind of cheezy!!!!!!!!!!!! what she did....BUT NO MATTER WHAT MAY THE BEST PERSON WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Gialani (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 12:39 AM)

I have read all the comments and heard Chris on the television. Two things bother me about all the fussin about Ms. Clinton and Mr. Obama.. One, Ms. Clinton has only served as a New York Senator. She was a Presidents' wife or first lady? Two, Mr. Obama does not salute the Flag of the United States and is a confirmed Muslim. By definition, Muslims are supposed to hate and kill Americans. Now, how can these facts be true and we are going to vote for these two people? I do not understand the reasoning behind any of you that are supporting either of these two candidates. I still have not made up my mind at this point. It will be a little while longer before I can honestly cast a vote for any of the candidates at this time. The woman and black thing is just that a thing. Who cares if person is female or black? What the hell does that got to do with running this country? Lots of women and lots of black people run countries and do a fine job of it. Granted some of them are dictators but, who knows? Ha Lighten up a little. John from Tacoma Washington.

John, Tacoma, Washington (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 12:40 AM)

Anybody is fine with me as long as they aren't REPUBLICANS. I can't imagine how we are ever getting out debt or Iraq. They have destroyed the constitution, so lets just get a Dem. in there.

toby darling, whittier, ca. (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 12:40 AM)

I am glad Hillary won tonight she is the most qualified candidate for the president as compared to Obama or Edwards one is just a Inspirational speaker and The other one is the Trial Lawyer. They will say anything to get elected. In order to change the system you have to work with it. Otherwise they will end up breaking something else without realizing it.

Ash, NJ (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 12:40 AM)

You know, I actually agreed with the pundits this time; I though Obama was going to pick up that momentum from IA and carry it into NH. But that turned out to be complete foolishness! If anything, Clinton's win tonight confirms that this is a two person race between Obama and Clinton. Now we can say for certain that Super Tuesday will deliver the final verdict.

As for the GOP, I can totally see McCain taking center stage at the convention. The party would really do themselves a favor if they selected him --sure he sides with Bush, and his postions have some conservatives angry --but he is really the most electable. That being said, I think it would be boring if he won...we need some new blood. I don't care if Bush's approval shoots up to say 50% come Nov. (good luck with that)

I'm rooting for Obama now, but I orinally wanted Richardson to win. I disagree with some who say Clinton will put the Dems into the red if she the nominee; we can't predict that. But it would be great if we could elet someone who is fresh. And might I add thatI was very shock by former president Bill Clinton's remarks about Obama's "fairy tail" cmapaign. He reflected a tone as if he was talking to Ken Starr, not one of his own! Pretty low for Bill...

If it is infact Obama, I hope the srutiny of a national campaign will force him to tell us where he stands on the issues. Face it, we still don't know the guy. Come up with some comprehensive plan we can believe in, otherwise, a more experience candidate will more than likely win the election in Nov.

Kevin, Kirkland, Wash. (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 12:41 AM)

<< Previous

Next >>

SEND A COMMENT

PLEASE READ: All comments must be approved before appearing in the thread; time and space constraints prevent all comments from appearing. We will only approve comments that are directly related to the blog, use appropriate language and are not attacking the comments of others.

Message (please, no HTML tags. Web addresses will be hyperlinked):

Your name, city and state (John Doe, Seattle, Wash.):

Your e-mail address (jdoe@msnbc.com):

Your website (it's okay if you don't have one):

Remember me? (We'll keep it private) Remember me?

TRACKBACKS

Trackbacks are links to weblogs that reference this post. Like comments, trackbacks do not appear until approved by us. The trackback URL for this post is: http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/trackback.aspx?PostID=561713