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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



Why this Dem race is so tight

Posted: Tuesday, January 08, 2008 10:27 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: , , ,

From NBC's Norah O'Donnell, Barbara Bernhard, and Adam Verdugo
So far it's a very tight race on the Democratic side and it looks like the Iowa caucus results may not have had as big of an impact as so many thought it would.
 
One key factor: Nearly four-in-10 said they made up their minds in the last three days. This is the period when Barack Obama was supposed to be benefiting from his big Iowa win. Apparently, not tonight.
 
As for the late deciders, Obama and Clinton split that vote at 38% each. That is where Clinton is picking up voters. Gender has been a big part of the story on the Democratic side, and we are seeing that there is a big gender gap. Clinton is doing much better among women today in New Hampshire than she did in Iowa. Women were the majority of New Hampshire voters -- 57%. 
 
Obama is also doing well among those in their 30s, but Clinton is leading among voters 40 and older -- 43% to 28%. They accounted for about two-thirds of all voters today.

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the press thats why its close look you would fry a women with 2 years in the senate what do you do now you have energized the people they are sick of men especialy WHITE guys mort tucker Joe Chris,billy crystol,wheres newtie remember he was impeaching while having an afair .STOP BEING A HATER  shes a centrest ,is it true back in the day she worked for GOLDWATER
I have heard Andrea Mitchell and others talk about the fact that Hillary's sucess this evening with women voters stems from "cute reply's" during the debate and showing emotion yesterday.  YOU GIVE WOMEN NO CREDIT !!!!  I was swayed by Barack's win in Iowa and was swept into the "vision" (still am).  The deabte brought me back to reality.   I watched the deabte with 11 other professional women and Hillary in our opinion won the debate HANDS DOWN.  Hillary showed intelligence, tenacity and a remarkable understanding of all of thge issues.  Women are not swayed only by ridiculous anectodes.  Voters, including women, are looking at Hillary's exceptional leadership qualities.


kenn:'...the press thats why its close look you would fry a women with 2 years in the senate....'

The press would fry a male who ran for office and claimed he qas qualified because he was the husband of a female politician....'

A mimbo would get NO RESPECT !!

Stop sniveling
Hillary had all thea advantages\She still does
Let's see who wins
Try not to run a dirty smear campaign, Hill

The real question is where African American women, of which there are relatively few in Iowa and New Hampshire, will put their votes in Michigan and South Carolina. If Clinton doesn't hold them in the same numbers she held white women in New Hampshire and everything else remains equal, she is still in trouble. Plus, to win the national election, I think Ms. Clinton needs to seriously improve her ratings among men, and I don't think tearing up is going to help her in that.
This is a race that shows america that women and other races are a force to be reckoned with. The closeness of this race of evidence that change is needed and evident and that the american people are not just thinking about change actually embracing and acting on the change.  
Any idea how the Clinton smear letter about Obama's abortion record played in the female vote?
The age gap in the support for Obama vs. Clinton seems obvious to me.  Those of us who have been voting for 20 years or more have seen Obama before - I'm thinking Jimmy Carter in '76, and it was a DISASTER.  The problem with the system, the one Obama is saying he will change, is not the President, it is Congress, and the President cannot change the way Congress does it's business.
I think that Senator Obama lost because of upper middle class older women voting for Hillary. Of course a week ago he was down in NH by double digits. He made a remarkable run in up in the polls. She only squeeked the victory by about 5-6000 votes. She was expected mere days ago to trounce him. Let us just see what happens when people who dare to dream about a new kind of America get a chance to vote in other states. I am a life long Dem, but after the way Bill and Hillary have acted in this campaign, I will NOT cast a ballot for her. If being rude then acting cute and simpering in a debate followed by then tearing up will get you elected president, why don't we just nominate Deidre Hall or some other soap actress?
Experience??? Judgement??? come on folks. If she had either of those two commodities, would she have believed Bill about Monica and gone on the Today show and called it the plot of a right wing conspiracy?
E-gads! Give me a break here. I didn't believe him and I was a dang Clinton supporter!
I am still bitter about 2000 and I want a change of this old "get in to get even" politics. I want a man who has a vision of what we can be as a country. I want to be inspired for a change.
So, on to donate at the website of Barack and hope that America will finally wake up and close the book on this same old Clinton story and open a new one with a brand new type of hero---Barack Obama.
I never though I'd see the day that my admiration for the Clintons plummeted like a rock. And yet, the nasty, petulant way they have attacked Sen. Obama has turned my stomach. Their blatant feeling of entitlement just underscores that they are no longer the hopeful idealists they were when they came to the big leagues of D.C., but power-grubbing slicksters who won't balk at any tactic to win. Don't let the tears fool you - Those tears weren't for America, but for the disintegrating plan they'd so carefully laid out.

Here's hoping we as a nation can step up and say that we'd prefer a real change. Let's say that being married to someone with experience is not the same thing as BEING someone with experience. Let's say that 11 years in two legislatures is more experience than 8 years in one, because though we may be products of the American educational system, we can still do basic math. Let's say that nobody gets a free ride because they think they're entitled. Let's say that the sacrifices a candidate makes in their personal lives for the sake of running a campaign are not and never will be usable as currency to "earn" a spot, because the presidency is not a reward - It's a JOB, and the position answers to us, not the other way around. Let's say loudest of all that we'd like a leader who conducts himself like a grown-up - Just for a change of pace.

Be brave. Take a chance. Do what's right.
I think Hillary won the debate hands down.  I feel she was the only candidate that was intelligent, honest and had a plan, not to mention experience.  I wanted to like Obama but was not impressed.  I feel he does not speak well nor have I heard a concrete plan from him other than a "change".  Hillary is right!  Talk is cheap.  Change is action not speech!!!  Frankly, I think he's trying to ride on a "change" campaign to be compared to JFK.  Unfortunately it seems to have been working.  I felt Hillary was respectful and honest with the other candidates who were ganging up on her.  I did not like the tactics of Edwards who I feel is distorting info. to manipulate voters.  I don't trust him.  I do think Hillary could engage in more eye contact with the camera/audience.
Excuse me!  Obama is BLACK!  There has not been an election contest with a black man in which the polls were correct.  Shame on you, New Hampshire!  With pollster in front of you, you could admit that he was the best candidate, but, in secret, in the booth, you were not able to vote for a black man. In Iowa the voters had to vote their preferences, in public, so Obama won - in all categories.  This "womens vote", independent voter palaver is baloney.  We are a racist country, always have been and looks to be into the future.
Searria or should I call you Chris Mattews Hilliary is  well schooled on a resume thats experince,First Lady I m guessing its not on your resume, Senator Two terms but thats nothing,the most negitive people I hear are people like tucker and you and rush and hannity
I keep hearing that we should stop defaming people because of their gender, race, and/or age. Well then stop crying about your race or gender everytime something doesn't go the way you want it. Ever woman crying on hear is using their gender (as well as Hillary's) as a crutch because the race might not being goingthe way they want. Boo Hoo.

Get back in the kitchen and fix me something to eat -- there now you have something to really cry about.
Keith, Obama reminds you of CARTER? To each his own view. Obama reminds me more of Robert Kennedy. Now, I could see Huckabee reminding one of Carter (though the former I find far more likable)
I don't get why Hillary wins on experience.  She was a lawyer in a law firm in Arkansas for a quite a bit of her profession career.  Then she was the wife of a President.  She had some exposure in that job for sure, but no real executive experience.  And then she was a Senator for 8 years.  Sure that's more time than Obama has been a Senator, but its not executive experience.  

On top of that, she does not pass my instincts test.  She rubs me the wrong way.  She uses the same political tactics as Bush.  She's all about herself and her own ego.  She acts to me like she has a sense of entitlement.  A vote for Hillary to me is a vote for the same divisive, politics we have been suffering from for years.  Let's try something different, PLEASE!
She is a leader.  She is a manager.  She is an executive.  She is a worker.  She is a doer.  She is a thinker, a doer, and she accomplishes.  Her Senate colleagues on both sides have come to respect her and are embarrassed for hasty judgements prior to working with her.  She is a President like none other than, perhaps, FDR!  We need someone who sees this position as a job, a big job, and who is willing to work.  She has no appendages that affect her ego and her machismo.  I am so ready for this and she is the one.
Independents thought Obama had this thing won with all of the pre polling and hype. With that it mind independents wanted to ensure a victory for McCain to keep things in commotion for the GOP to seal the deal for Obama.  
Until five days ago, Clinton had an insurmountable lead in New Hampshire. Why is it "stunning" that she won, especially considering the support base the Clintons have maintained there since the nineties. The story should be that Obama almost beat her on her own turf. There was no comeback, no upset, no stunning victory. The pollsters and the media exaggerated Obama's bump from Iowa. Obama came back from behind to almost win in New Hampshire. Let's hope he keeps the momentum up because I'd like to have someone I can vote for this time around. If it's Clinton, I'll be voting against her.
Fire Chris Mathews and Andrea Mitchell! I will not watch MSNBC as long as these bloviators are on the air.  You can keep this comment from being posted but that is the prevailing opinion in the country today.  
Obama lost because yesterday Jon's Daily show and Colbert report exposed Obama pretty nicely. For me and my friends now Obama is No No guy for President.
Martha,
If you are basing your vote and the future of our country on Jon Stewart and Steven Colbert, you got more serious issues than we can deal with on this forum. Might I inquire if Sunnyvale is the name of the sanitorium?
Chip,
I don't agree with Obama foreign policy, this guy just all about talk talk talk, He read from telepromter. These great guys Jon and Colbert just expose what other media hide or want to project. That is why all pollester came out wrong. Country need new direction but not from a person who is good in reading from telepromters and groomed by Oprah. This is not a TV show, we need serious change and discussion.  
From great place called sunnyvale.


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