Political Grits: Looking to SC

Posted: Wednesday, January 09, 2008 1:09 PM by Domenico Montanaro

From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
COLUMBIA, S.C. -- With last night's New Hampshire results printing a huge question mark on both the Democratic and Republican races, the Palmetto State just earned itself a major jump in importance and spotlight-grabbing potential. The South is known for its slow-talkin' ambling manners, but -- with a mere 10 days until the GOP contest here, and 17 until the Democrats duke it out -- events in the state are going to move pretty fast. So here's a quick primer on what I've managed to pick up in the last 36 hours about a boiling hot race, a cadre of salty old-time insiders, and campaigns that are all about plain ol' political grit.

*** Who's Ahead? Last night's results will change everything, but one poll taken post Iowa caucuses, a SurveyUSA poll, showed Obama with a 20-point lead over Clinton. Those numbers, tabulated Jan. 4-6, had Clinton eeking out a lead among women, but falling far behind Obama among black voters (23% to 69%, respectively.) Earlier polls showed the race much tighter and for most of the cycle, Clinton held the lead. For the Republican candidates, SurveyUSA clocked in a big lead for Huckabee with 36% support, followed by Romney at a distant 19% and McCain at 17%.

*** Who's All In? If he hadn't announced it on NH primary day, this might have gotten a lot more press. Fred Thompson is MOVING his entire campaign to South Carolina. According to a release issued yesterday by the campaign, members of Thompson's headquarters staff are headed to South Carolina for the duration, some even enduring pay cuts in the effort to revive his campaign with a victory here. Fred didn't actually say the words, "I need to win" here today, but read between the lines of this statement, made in Columbia last night: "This is where I'm drawing the line. We had to get out of Iowa with a third-place finish in order to be credible to come forward. We made a pit stop in New Hampshire. But South Carolina is where I'm standing for the nomination of President of the United States."

*** Who's having an awesome day? John McCain's South Carolina team couldn't be happier with last night's decisive victory against Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee in New Hampshire. If the schedule is any indication, McCain's camp thinks that he's the only Republican who can play equally in Michigan and South Carolina simultaneously. It's hard not to notice that his organization here is strong -- he's successfully reached out to the state's high population of veterans, and a majority of the legislative apparatus backs him. And, as indicated by their formation of a "Truth Squad" to combat negative ads, his team learned not to be caught off guard by dirty politics in 2000. Anyone who goes negative against him here takes the risk of raising the ugly specter of the Bush hit job eight years ago. He's hardly bullet-proof, but the sweet tea flowed last night nonetheless at McCain HQ.

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Comments

Did MSNBC not learn anything from NH? Do not trust the polls!

GO hillary!!!

John, los angeles (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 1:26 PM)

Who's Ahead? lol

YOU HAVE NO IDEA! :)

Nashville_fan (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 1:30 PM)

SC is a whole other ball game. Hillary did win last night, but it was by a slim margin. The question for SC voters will be who will be best able to draw moderates and independents to ensure a victory in November. Based on her loss in IA and narrow win in NH, Hillary doesn't appear to be that person.

Enrique, Chicago, IL (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 1:32 PM)

The S.C. polling data isn't worth the paper it's printed on now.
pollingreport.com has Hillary and Obama tied @ 33%.
That will surely change in the wake of N.H.

J. Merle Stanley, Westchester, NY (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 1:35 PM)

I have learned never trust polls. Hillary has bashed relentlessly. Matthews and other talking heads critized everything about her. And Chris Matthews obsession with her is getting down right strange. I understand she is a political figure but his coverage of her is over the top.

P.D. (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 1:36 PM)

All people of color are not stupid. Some vote in elections for a person who can be proper for the job he or she is seeking. It wasn't people of color who voted the worst President in the history of this country. There's proof right there. I think South Carolina with all of those service people will vote for McCain and Clinton.
People of color very well remember what Bill did for them and now it's payback time.

Rev. Dewey Leon Everts Jr. Santa Barbara CA (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 1:38 PM)

Tell me, who do u thing is going to beleive any of you idiots in the media anymore, after Hillary made u look like fools....

Hillary4prez (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 1:39 PM)

Huckabee has been trying to sound like Ron Paul, but do not be fooled. He is the compassionate conservative with boundless compassion and will further bankrupt our country. He also lacks foreign policy experience.

McCain is the only credible fiscal conservative besides Ron Paul, and since voters have decided we should stay in Iraq, we also need a candidate qualified to lead us to victory. There again, McCain is the only choice.

Rachel Farer, Newark, DE (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 1:39 PM)

20 POINTS !!
Let's hope that holds up !!
The 69 to 23 Obama lead among black voters is 3 to 1
Let's hope THAT holds up and spreads out ...

The sleazxy Clinton smear tactics probably AREN'T PLAYING WELL in the Black community

Sierra, SF (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 1:44 PM)

I don't know about women in general, I am only one woman and only know how I feel. I am a conservative and Mrs. Clintons tears did not affect me, except to think she has been working hard. I decided she has my vote because she is the most qualified to be President. I am also over 60.

Joyce Fleming (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 1:47 PM)

After last night, I refuse to trust the polls.

Luther, Los Angeles, CA (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 1:50 PM)

These polls will most certainly change. Obama was riding a wave and that wave may have crested. I expect a much closer contest and it is not helpful to show Obama with such a large lead ala. NH. As that leads comes down, the narrative will be comeback for Clinton, losing support for Obama. Let's wait a few days before we start the inevitable labels.
BTW I've have also seen some reports saying Obama was ahead in NV, but have never seen a poll with him even close to Clinton in that state. What's up with that.

Al, KS (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 2:01 PM)

Carrie - you need to do a few cross word puzzles - you don't "eek" out - you "eke" out! You may not think spelling is important but an error this blatant puts your intelligence and therefor your opinion in question.

Beverly, Enfield, CT (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 2:05 PM)

Did Chris Matthews actually say this morning on Morning Joe that the only reason Hillary Clinton is a front runner in the Democratic primary is because her husband messed around on her?????

That's it people. I've been posting here for months, through all the ups and downs and I think I just hit the end of my dignity tolerance. I'm gone.

I will not participate in this mysogynistic tabloid shredding of MY government. This is not American Idol, Matthews is not Simon Cowell and this has ceased to be even remotely funny. This man needs serious help and I am washing my hands of this entire network. I will no longer post here, I will no longer watch Morning Joe, and I will really miss Mika, until this network at least trys to regain some dignity and Chris Matthews publicly apologises to not only Hillary, but every American man and woman for treating our election system like an episode of 'Real World.'

I'm realllly going to miss Olberman too, this just really sucks.

mike oh (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 2:05 PM)

Please remove Chris Matthews from any future election discussions. The yelling, the interrupting, the rabidity belong on Fox, not on a reputable network.

Thank you

Joan Chesterton (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 2:09 PM)

At this point, is it credible that South Carolina moves California or New York? From the New York Times snapshots of the upcoming states, Giuliani still has the lead. Is that lead gone? Does California care what South Carolina does?

Maybe the whole early states thing is getting really marginalized. Didn't the press create Obamafest from one goofy caucus? Certainly Huck got somewhere between a micro bounce and a nano bounce, Iowa to New Hampshire. A good showing in SC is going to drive Thompson to victory in California or New York? McCain's numbers really have to move by February. Does he draw from Rudy's account, mostly?

Now you are getting into primaries in states where people get nothing but ads and name ID. The guy who seems like he has to come down is still, oddly Giuliani, for the GOP. If he goes pinata and he gives up his numbers, then it is open.

You really do see the tensions in the GOP. Rudy is just too socially liberal, and Huck too conservative, to really be a unity candidate. Mitt tailors an appeal to both, but it ends up being perceived as phony. McCain is a one-time reformer with all the Bush baggage, including deep economic woes.

Obama has the name ID to win California and collect big pots of delegates. But he's fallen off that wave of change. For now, a paucity of hope...

George Sears, Cedar City, Utah (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 2:11 PM)

How long before John Edwards, a good man, realizes he's playing the role of Ross Perot for the Clintons?

citizens for change NYC (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 2:20 PM)

http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Decision2008/story?id=4107883&page=1

Man oh man, New York, NY (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 2:24 PM)

Wow, MSNBC is closing some of the post due to the large amount of criticism they're receiving. Sorry, but the truth is out on the number of bias reporters trying to influence the election via MSNBC and it's cronies like Newsweek.

jlb in PA (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 2:25 PM)

I've been torn between Hillary and Obama. So I continually watch the debates. The more I see Obama, the more I question his abilities. I don't think he's ready to lead our nation. He has become cocky and far too rhetorical. He doesn't tell us his plans to do, he tells us feel good rhetoric. What has he done so far as a Senator? I have found nothing profound in his work.

Hillary is very smart, very strong, and has plans and determination. She has worked for the GOOD of the people as Arkansas' first lady, as the United States' first lady and as a New York Senator. As first lady of the USA, she came under great fire for trying to do good instead of 'acting like the little woman'. Yet she persevered.

Her alleged tears were non-existent. However, male commentators love pointing out this moment of emotion, as men love to think that tears are a sign of weakness. But every woman knows, they are actually strength. She had moist eyes and a quiver in her voice. Thank GOD! She didn't become emotional 'on purpose' as accused. She simply showed emotion, an emotion with which men are notoriously uncomfortable. I wish the other candidates would show some true emotion as well. Strength without emotion, without passion, without compassion is self-serving. Even before the emotion surfaced to visibility, I had come to believe that Hillary Clinton is everything this country needs, right now.

Chelsea Cameron (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 2:29 PM)

You got to go take a look,at what's going over at hillaryclinton.com , it's real momentum.

John Tressel , Newark ,N.J. (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 2:30 PM)

To Chuck Todd and the rest of the First Read staff:

I don't know what the point is of having reader feedback options if you don't update the comments more often. I mean, it's 2:30 p.m., and there are now 7 stories up with zero comments. Which means there are several hundred comments that have been sent by anxious readers but not posted on the site yet. The last story with comments was posted early this morning. At this rate, I sort of lose my motivation to write or read posts. You guys are poisoning your own well.

Charlie K., Bronx, NY (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 2:36 PM)

It seems to be obvious to me that the media is strongly in Mr McCain's corner. What the East Coast media fails to recgonize is the the way Mr Huckabee resonates with the average American people. You should here the talk around the country. Being from Arkansas and have gotten calls from all over the country of friends asking me about Mr Huckabee. Although I was not a supporter of his as govenor he has made a very good imprssion around the country. As hard as the media might try you just can't underestimate the American people. You need in New Hampshire and look at the crow you are having to eat now.
Could it be the Americans have caught on to the fact that how the elite east coast media as tried to manipulate the election for the past 30 years? We might not allow this to happen in this election.

Michael Goodwin (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 2:39 PM)

I was reading some of the comments on an earlier post that is now closed. I spoke with a politically savvy friend of mine last night who is a die hard Obama supporter who could not figure out why Clinton won in NH yesterday, disputing all the current polls. Many of the comments regarding this were well reasoned and thoughtful..
I think between being passionate in the debate, and showing an honest human side to her, while talking up the "change versus experience" angle caused some voters to rethink thier positions. It helped that the media was so anti-Clinton, putting her down for the count. She is tough, resilient, and smart-all good qualities for a POTUS, but I am deeply concerned, along with many bloggers on this post with her entrenched ties to corporate lobbies...she is my least favorite Democratic candidate because of it, although I think they are all good. I don't think Edwards should drop out, and am personally delighted that he is commetted to staying in..I think both Obama and Clinton have devisive issues to the voters regarding them, and have always thought Edwards would be the most electible. He does need to adopt a more conciliatory attitude towards his competing candidates, however, because that is off-putting to most voters..
All in all, this is like a good football game, I think it will be a close race, and hope that the candidates and the bloggers will keep the insults and smear tactics to a minimum.

Pam OC, CA (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 2:39 PM)

It is obvious to me that Hillary Clinton faked her emotional outburst to win over women at the last minute. Her strategists said "we need to win over women -- how do we do it?" A last minute boo-hoo-hoo from Hillary was pure genius. To me this is proof positive what we've known all along about Hillary: she will do and say anything to get that to which she believes she is entitled.

Once again, the American people are suckers for the Clinton con-man team. Digusting. Unbelievable.

Henrietta Jones, New York NY (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 2:41 PM)

No talk of Edwards? I was at his Welcome Home Rally in Clemson today and I think he has some real potential to connect with rural southern democrats. It is a shame the media has all but written him off; he has the best chance of beating the republican nominee, especially if it is McCain.

Adam, Clemson, SC (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 2:42 PM)

Chris Matthews (MSNBC)has disappointed me. I have been a loyal fan of his, but within g the last few months inparticular, he has become very biased against Hillary Clinton. I have come to expect this of Tucker Carlson, but thought Chris was above that kind of thing. Could it be that she refused to give him any interviews? I notice that she has been on just about every other talk show.

Mary Whiting (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 2:48 PM)

South Carolina (women, men, all races):
Please restore our faith that America doesn't reward the amazing trash politics that we saw the past 2 days in New Hampshire.

I always thought the biggest reason for a drawn-out campaign was to see how the candidates react to stress. We all know the old saw, "people's true colors come out under stress." Even Senator Clinton's apologists can't deny what happened. Over 72 hours when they hit their first speed bump, here's what we saw:
1) Senator Clinton playing the "fear" and "Al Qaeda" cards
2) Bill Clinton trashing Obama and his supporters for being in "fairyland" (remarkable for a former President to stoop to this level)
3) Bill Clinton torturing Obama's comments to try and slime his anti-war stance

Just one voter's genuine question: is this what our country needs? More lobbyist money running the show and a continuation of the disgusting "trash" politics we've seen the past 8 years?

Scott, California (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 2:55 PM)

This could be a make or break state for Thompson. I have a feeling that McCain , Romney and Huckabee will do well in South Carolina. The bigger question for me is which one will win it and by how large a margin. If it is really big win for any one of them, then it could spell doom for other campaigns. I'd be surprised if Rudy did well in the South at all.

S.B. Stein E.B. NJ (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 3:02 PM)

Asked if you could cry on cue, Joan Crawford replied: "Which eye?" ENOUGH SAID!!

celticfire, hartford, wi (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 3:05 PM)

How is McCain's 4 1/2 percent lead "Decisive"? He's still trailing in delegates....

Bruce, NV (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 3:17 PM)

Why does this liberal MSNBC leave the calendar VACANT until the 15th??? There is a GOP Debate in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina on THURDAYS, THE 11TH, YOU LIBERAL PINHEADS!!!

JOYCE VAUGHAN BYSARS (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 3:17 PM)

Apparently the national media didn't get the message:

The American people don't give a damn what your polls suggest.

Carrie, Eastern Iowa (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 3:22 PM)

willl another state make the wacko choice of Huck and Barrack?

Tuck,Realityville,Ks (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 3:32 PM)

Hello, First Read...what's the deal with the message saying you have closed comments on certain threads?

Carrie, Eastern Iowa (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 3:46 PM)

Barack Obama… the jury is still out… can I as an American and a Christian actually vote for someone educated from infancy outside of the United States??? I don’t underestimate the significance of a child’s adolescence and how it influences the rest of his life… he's does not salute the flag when the National Anthem is played… the next time you attend an event where the National Anthem is played, look around and notice how few people do not salute the Flag… the Flag, “Old Glory,” represents every ancestor you and I have who have ever lost their lives for that Flag… Mr. Obama may be a great person, but his childhood and seemingly lack of patriotism, make me question what his real intentions would be if elected to the White House… I'm sure change is the correct word to use to describe his candidacy… I'm just not sure what kind of change it would be… how will this change impact my life??? We do need change… but change that also includes the traditions and values of most Americans… does he want to be the leader of the free world to help strengthen our National pride, our economy, our communities, our youth, and solidify this country’s place in the next millennium… will he stand-up to the pressure of the world’s influence and continue to uphold the principles that have made this country great??? Will he give ground to the pressures of the outside world for the United States to conform to the way the rest of the world thinks??? I believe for this country to move forward we must first stand our ground… maintain our identity as a people… teach our children not to be haters of things or people they don’t understand, but at the same time remain true to their heritage and protect it… America was built on the shoulders of strong men and women who had a core set of values and stuck to their guns… we need a leader who will put America first… will he be able to set-aside his feelings for the hardships that part of his family in other countries endures, and focus on the feelings and hardships of every American’s family??? Considering his childhood, he must be a man torn between two ideologies… which one will he choose??? Is his candidacy about changing America to strengthen it, or more about changing the world by changing America??? Is it more about making the world a stronger better place to live, by weakening America??? In the end I feel it is my responsibility as an American and a Christian to vote for the candidate with the strongest voice that mirrors my belief system… to vote for the candidate I feel will pave the road for my children’s children to live in a future where a Christian is still the majority voice in this great country… As it stands that candidate in my view is Mike Huckabee

Joe, TN (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 4:29 PM)

Political guts, look to Hillary Clinton. Come join our conversation. hillaryclinton.com

Cathy Lee (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 4:40 PM)

Does anyone believe any of the polls or pudits anymore? I skip over them and roll my eyes with disgust. UGGGH now I am starting to sound like rightwing nuts who don't trust the media. That sickens me more than anything.

Stacy, Virginia (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 4:55 PM)

17 days is a long time for those numbers to change, how about Edwards seems you forgot about the southern candidate.

John Alexander,Edinboro,PA (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 6:08 PM)

Go Thompson!

Jamie, Salt Lake, Utah (Sent Wednesday, January 09, 2008 9:45 PM)

Let's all hope the poll's will be wrong again. Hillary
is the right choice the only choice to lead our nation.

Susan S. (Sent Thursday, January 10, 2008 1:55 AM)

congrats to Mc Cain! we're retired Air Force and he's my choice for security, and foreign policy. But where does he stand on restoring our economy and creating much needed jobs? Wish he was stopping in Sumter.

Marianne Barry, Sumter SC (Sent Thursday, January 10, 2008 2:30 AM)

Racial tensions run high in South Carolina, and Obama was betting his win there from winning both Iowa and New Hampshire to prove to the African American community that an African American could win the nomimation. Now that he's lost in New Hampshire the voters may be second guessing their choice.

Tareli, Fuquay Varina NC (Sent Thursday, January 10, 2008 12:46 PM)

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