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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Post-debate first take: Fred's not dead...

Posted: Thursday, January 10, 2008 10:40 PM by Chuck Todd

From NBC's Chuck Todd
The first 20 minutes of the debate was not good for the entire Republican Party. All of the candidates struggled on the issue of the economy; their answers may have been fine for a primary audience but don't expect swing voters or indie voters to like what these guys said on the economy. They tried to sound in touch but their collective hesitance for government involvement explains why voters tend to want Democrats in economic down times; that's when folks look to government. The middle-class doesn't like government involved when the economy is good.

After the torture of dealing with the economy was over, I think all of the candidates can feel good about their performances. Fred Thompson was funny, biting and energetic. Easily, his smoothest performance but it wasn't necessarily presidential; it was Jack Cafferty-esque... or Paul Harvey-like. He sounded like a smart pundit.  Thompson, btw, did McCain a big favor by softening up Huckabee. I'm guessing, though, his style played VERY well with South Carolina Republicans. They kind of like that smart allecky chatter.

Huckabee was more on the defensive tonight as any debate so far. It seemed like he was taking incoming from numerous candidates, particularly Thompson. He handled himself pretty well but the message to conservatives was clear, he may be a social conservative, but he's no small-government economic conservative.  Still, give Huckabee credit, he answered the criticisms with his usual wit and probably did well on the likeability front.

Mitt Romney did well early on, though there was an air of desperation in his answers. He quickly targeted McCain, the man standing in the way of victory in Michigan. Romney gave one of the best change rationales I've ever heard him give; I don't understand why it took Romney nearly a year to become this guy.

McCain was fine, the typical sober performance but he needs a bit more energy; there wasn't the same fire as I've seen in previous debates.

Giuliani did better than the last two debates; he was more involved; but it is interesting to watch the candidates and moderators ignore Rudy, to a point.

And then there's Ron Paul... why didn't Fox stick to its guns and keep him out. He was a distraction for a good portion of the debate and took away from the candidates who have a real shot at the nomination.

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Chuck Todd-- NBC Paulhater Director
Romney has been "this guy" for years, as Mass. Governor, command of the Olympics and as successful businessman. Why haven't you listened, or more importantly acknowledged??
Take Ron Paul Out? Take out Freddie and Rudy first, Here's a thought, take out people at the BACK of the pack, ron's cruising just fine :)
Mitt Romney has a little problem that is Telling the Truth please watch this video and judge for yourself:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JeP5A5cczqk&eurl=http://republicansagainstromney.blogspot.com
Mr. Chuck Todd,

I've often wondered why you serve as MSNBC's Chief Political Analyst and then constantly watch you dwarf in comparison to guys like Joe Scarborough and Chris Matthews with your insights.

For you to join the bandwagon of excluding necessary insights like those of Ron Paul is just plain unpatriotic. You would better serve in a political arena where censorship is  the rule, not here in America. I hear Musharraf could use some help over in Pakistan,you might be a good fit over there where freedom and debate are not appreciated.
Chuck Todd is a complete HACK !
Ron Paul made the rest of the canidates look like the fools they are !
I've come to the conclusion that this country is still just a giant high school and we all fawn over the star QB who likes to drink and fight. We are electing the man who will lead the country, not the Prom King! We're nowhere near being ready to look beyond posturing and cliche soundbites in determing our leaders. It's becoming all too clear why we gave Bush a second term and why we are likely to once again elect a prez who "seems like somebody you could have a beer with." Brilliant.
Mr. Chuck Todd,

I've often wondered why you serve as MSNBC's Chief Political Analyst and then constantly watch you dwarf in comparison to guys like Joe Scarborough and Chris Matthews with your insights.

For you to join the bandwagon of excluding necessary insights like those of Ron Paul is just plain unpatriotic. You would better serve in a political arena where censorship is  the rule, not here in America. I hear Musharraf could use some help over in Pakistan,you might be a good fit over there where freedom and debate are not appreciated.
You got to love the Ron Paul people.  When they come in, they come in strong.  By far, the most passionate group out there.  

Who won the debate?  My guess is McCain.  Not because his performance was so wonderful, but he has all the momentum and this debate probably didn't change that.  Actually, the only person who I think will get a slight bump from this debate is Thompson.  Huckabee might of been slightly hurt but no significant damage.  Giuliani is becoming an afterthought.  Ron Paul, he may not win, but he has a message to tell.
I think NBC news should keep you out, Chuck Todd. You are a distraction to common sense.

I thought Ron Paul did a good job presenting his libertarian, strict constitutionalist position and standing up to the big boys.  He normally is relegated as the odd man and ignored, but tonight, he stood out and stood strong on his unchanging message.
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Fred Thompson really stole the show last night--finally somebody stood up and exposed Huckabee as the closet liberal in preacher's clothing that he really is. If he had done this six months ago, he would be running away with the GOP nomination by now.

Fox News finally invited Ron Paul, but to the wrong debate--on many issues, he agrees with Hillary and Barack Hussein. But he does serve a useful purpose--every circus needs a clown, and he makes all the other candidates seem magnificent in comparison.
Hmmm.... Are you really condoning what fox news did to Dr.Paul?
The media does not get to decide who I vote for, and when there's a candidate performing better than Giuliani, raising more money than any other Republican, and actually presenting honest ideas, I think he deserves to be in the debate.
Did you even watch the debate? When it became evident that Ron Paul was the only real Republican on that stage, were you listening?
Or how about when dear old Brit asked every candidate the same, nice Reagan question, except Ron Paul, and he stood up for himself so eloquently?
I am going to give you a pass and assume you must not have watched the debate at all.
I will tell you this, ten of my students in my dorm became supporters of Dr. Paul last night, as well as my grandfather, so he's doing something right!
Huh? RON PAUL WON THIS DEBATE!!!! How you can say that pro-war Rudy, "broken borders" McCain, "tax hike" Mike, or flip-flop Mitt won is beyond me. And as for Rudy, Tim Russert destroyed him on "Meet the Press"; You gave anyone all the evidence they need to beat him. So please tell me. Just how is RON PAUL not qualified to debate? Is a sin to know something about issues before you speak? Who has the most money from supporters: Millionaire Mitt??? Who else has any money? (you know from REAL people) Could it be that RON PAUL has the only kinda of money that can compete against the Republican AND Democratic WAR machine!!! 70% of American want us OUT of Iraq... Sounds like a majority to me, Chuck!!!!!!
Joe Calif, you're an idiot.
Do you really think that just because a Fred did not do well in NH means the whole US does not like him?
Stay in Cali, and leave the clear thinking to the normal folks.
Please, Ron Paul is about as electable as the man on the moon. Why is it that a libertarian has never won squat in this country? Someone mentioned practical above. They are NEVER practical. That's why they're libertarian. Paul supporters are rabid, and good for them.

I agree with a lot of his limited government philosophy, but he IS a distraction. He's at 4% in national polls, after a YEAR of campaigning. In South Carolina he's at 5%. Florida between 2 and 5%. In many of the super Tuesday states he doesn't register at all. So what's the rationale for including him? Because you agree with him? Chuck Todd may be biased, but he is absolutely right about Ron Paul.
Wow. I thought journalists already knew what happens when they make ad hominem attacks on Ron Paul.

Maybe this journalist is a masochist. :-)

Mr. Todd probably assumed that Ron Paul's 8% New Hampshire finish somehow sealed the candidate's doom. Julie Annie beat him by 1% so I guess it was all over for the "fringe candidate" in Todd's estimation.

But he needs to know this: the convention will be brokered and the delegates can vote for whom they want on the second round of voting. Ron Paul will garner about 125 delegates this winter and then spend the spring and summer convincing everyone that he is the one to choose for reasons other than war, now that the Iraq War is over.

I support Operation Iraqi Freedom and Ron Paul.

Fred Thompson, the only other conservative on stage, missed a great opportunity to say that he admired Ron Paul and would want him as an advisor.
Ron Paul supporter = "spammer"
Fred Thompson has finally shown his true conservative colors. He is true RED. Socially, fiscally and on defense. Huckabee again danced around the issues and claims made against him. In my state I am getting the advertising that Huckabee is putting on the air and it seems to be partial truths.

Ron Paul?? It was nice of Fox News to invite him into the fray of last night debate, but he is irrelevant and detracts from the candidates.
Ah, the Paul-ists are at it again. Meanwhile, this alleged man of "principle" REFUSED to distance himself from RACIST NAZI remarks made for OVER TEN YEARS in his name? How does that portray anything but political cynicism that basically says "If you vote for me, I don't care WHAT kind of hate-filled scum you are. Its not my problem." Paul showed his LACK of integrity last night, and most Republicans outside his lunatic fringe saw it well.
It's obvious the "mainstream" media (ie. DNC propoganda wing) doesn't want their candidates to run against real conservatives like Thompson and Romney. Note the dire predictions for both, even as Romney holds the delegate lead, and the Only 2 states that have held primaries are populated by a large majorities of RHINO's, thus Hucksterby and Tio Mcain's victories. Not to mention the bussed in "voters" from the Hillary and Obama camps. If they're willing to cheat once, what makes you think they wouldn't vote twice to skew the GOP vote? Notice that the states that the DNC usually carry have very open voting identification processes (breathing is the only requirement in some like NH; in New Orleans and Chicago, even a heartbeat is not a requirement). I'm confident that the Evangelical Taliban will follow Hucsterby over the cliff, to the sound of his false conservative flute (oops it's a bass guitar) and McCain will continue his farce of being a "conservative". Huckster might just get by in the South, but El Senator McCain's days are numbered.
It's great to see Thompson as somewhat the center of focus in a debate!  He's always been an attracting candidate in my opinion.  Thompson's ideas are always politically correct and this reflects his vast knowledge of the political realm.  It's unfortunate to see him be overshadowed by the other "desperate" candidates, such as Huckabee and Romney, but no one can truthfully say that he doesn't know what he's talkinga bout.  Another candidate that clearly has understanding of political workings is Senator McCain.  In almost every debate, although Romney continually attempts to bring him down, McCain's points are clearly derived from political wisdom.  His age is completely relatable to Ronald Reagan's at his time, so bringing this "defect" up is pointless.  He truly is the best candidate.  Then to Huckabee and Romney.  These two guys obviously have a passion for politics.  However, they are extremely inexperienced in national politics.  Although Romney may be able to create and control "small businesses" and manage the New Hampshire government, these qualities are of no avail in national politics.  The same goes for Huckabee!  Anyways, the Republican debate last night will hopefully make known the points I have stated above.  McCain and Thompson are the calm, collected, and politically wise candidates.  Huckabee and Romney are the energetic, inexperienced types who need more time in the federal government before being considered for the chief executive position.  Then, even though he used to be somewhat dominant, Guiliani has taken a turn and almost made himself the outcast.  Ron Paul requires no comment other than he is crazy.  
Ron Paul is the only one of these clowns even worth consideration.


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