The battle for Michigan
Posted: Monday, January 14, 2008 9:37 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Tuesday, January 15 (R)
- 30 delegates up for grabs that night
(Note: Michigan originally had 60 delegates but because it moved its primary before Feb. 5, the RNC stripped it of half its delegates.)
- Type of contest: open primary: Democrats, independents and Republicans can all vote.
- Polls open-close: 8:00 am ET to 9:00 pm ET
- Delegate allocation: hybrid (mostly winner-take-all by congressional district)
Another note: The Democratic primary in Michigan on the same day is of NO CONSEQUENCE, because the DNC stripped Michigan (as well as Florida) of ALL of its delegates for attempting to hold their primaries before Feb. 5. The candidates even signed a pledge to not campaign in either state. In addition, each of the Democratic candidates (except Clinton, Kucinich, and Gravel, requested in writing to have their names pulled from the ballot. Theirs, along with Uncommitted, will be the only names to appear. There is also a write-in option.
A new MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon poll of Michigan released Sunday morning has Romney up eight points over McCain, 30%-22%, with Huckabee at 17%, Thompson at 7%, Giuliani at 6%, and Paul at 5%. McCain's chances of topping Romney rest entirely on the amount of indies that decide to vote in the GOP primary. In our MSNBC/McClatchy poll, indies made up 30% of the sample, which wasn't enough to propel McCain into the lead.
The Los Angeles Times curtain-raises tomorrow’s GOP primary in Michigan. “Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the son of a popular former Michigan governor and auto executive, needs a win to counter growing perceptions that he can't do better than his second-place finishes in the first two significant nominating contests. Arizona Sen. John McCain, who won here in 2000, needs a win to keep his New Hampshire-born comeback alive. And a first-place showing by Mike Huckabee could help propel the former Arkansas governor through the South Carolina and Florida primaries heading into the coast-to-coast balloting Feb. 5, on which former New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, who is not campaigning in Michigan, has pinned his hopes for the nomination.”
More: “The significance of the vote here can be read in the candidates' schedules. With South Carolina and the Feb. 5 states looming, McCain and Romney focused exclusively on Michigan over the weekend, each arguing in town halls, drop-ins and party dinners that he is better suited to end Michigan's economic slide.”
More evidence that Romney connects to Michigan very well. The New York Times: "In Michigan, his campaign style is less robotic than it has been elsewhere. Gone are the PowerPoint presentations and the 12-point to-do list, replaced by an embrace of his family ties and his empathy for hard-up autoworkers and homeowners. He never fails to mention that his father and his mother, Lenore, who ran for the Senate in 1970, are buried here.
The best thing about Michigan for the GOP field is that it is forcing the candidates to address the economy a lot sooner than they would have.
And the Wall Street Journal’s Calmes notes how both Romney and McCain are trying to refine their economic pitches. "Both are sounding more like Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor, who said here Friday, ‘There was a time in this nation's history when Michigan saved America, and now it may be time for America to help save Michigan.’”
“Until now, Mr. Huckabee had been mostly alone in the Republican pack in speaking to middle-class Americans' angst about the economy in general, and their own insecurities about jobs, health insurance, energy prices and college costs. His populist rhetoric against Wall Street and for a national sales tax, together with his Christian conservatism, has powered his rise in Republican polls past better-known figures such as Mr. Romney and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, and unnerved the Republican establishment and its corporate allies."
All three major candidates hit a Detroit auto show today, putting a spotlight on the state's struggling economy.