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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Rudy 'not surprised' by drop in FL polls

Posted: Monday, January 14, 2008 3:57 PM by Domenico Montanaro

From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger
FORT MYERS, Fla. -- The latest polls showing Giuliani in second in Florida didn’t catch the campaign by surprise.

“We were not surprised,” Giuliani told NBC News, adding that internal polling had shown similar results. The Quinnipiac University poll, released Monday, found Giuliani behind McCain, but within the margin of error in the Sunshine State. McCain garnered 22 percent of the vote, followed by Giuliani with 20 percent and Romney and Huckabee with 19 percent each.

It is an 8-percentage-point drop for the former New York City mayor, who led in the poll a month ago. The January poll had an 4.8 percent margin of error.

Campaign aides said they had anticipated by the shift, considering McCain’s victory in New Hampshire. They assumed the race would tighten, but said they believe they will be in a strong position on Jan. 29, no matter who wins the primaries tomorrow in Michigan and this weekend in South Carolina and Nevada.

Strategy Director Brent Seaborn said he believes votes for Giuliani are more committed than those for other candidates and that they have a stronger grassroots effort. He said they are already pushing people to the polls for early voting, which the campaign has been heavily touting.

“We’d rather be ahead than behind in any poll, but being a point or two points behind, we’ll take,” Seaborn said. “We all know this is a real close race, but I think by the time the circus comes to town, it will be Rudy Giuliani versus a field of candidates that will be seen as flawed in some way.”

Seaborn also suggested the campaign could start going after its challengers, which would be a sharp contrast to Giuliani’s pledge to abide by Ronald Reagan’s “11th Commandment” to not denigrate other Republicans.

“We’ll take Sen. McCain’s endorsement whenever he is ready,” Seaborn said. “When the time is right, Rudy will fight as hard as anybody.”

Giuliani was met with an old acquaintance Monday on the second day of his three-day bus tour across Florida. When Mitch Samuels told Giuliani at the Shell Point Retirement Community that it was good to see him again, Giuliani inquired whether they knew each other before. “Yes,” Samuels said. “You married us.”

As Samuels walked up to shake Giuliani’s hand, the mayor asked “It took, huh? You’re still married?” to which Samuels affirmed. But Samuels later reminded him that he almost made it a quickie wedding.

“You said, ‘would you take Christina to be your wife?’ and I said ‘yes’ and you said ‘now wait a minute, you want it the fast way or the slow way?”

Giuliani said he remembered the incident. “You did eventually do the whole thing,” Giuliani said. “He was a little anxious, what can I tell you."

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Comments

“...but I think by the time the circus comes to town, it will be Rudy Giuliani versus a field of candidates that will be seen as flawed in some way.”

That's some interesting spin. What about Rudy's slight flaw that he'll have finished almost dead last in the first five states?
The only REAL surprise is that John McCain...

How can a man who has CHEATED on his wives so many times be entrusted as a President?

The first lady would look more like the first GRANDDAUGHTER!

McCain is old and cranky... and a major league adulterer... go home, John, and make up with your latest wife.
Looks like John McCain is back at the negative campaigning - isn't that what he said he WOULDN'T do?

Oh yeah - what can we expect from a guy who's latest wife looks like his daughter!
Guiliani is still better than that old, angry man McCain... AND that dumbell Huckabee.

Hey Huck - You and your Evangelical Pastors should go back to ripping off old ladies via televangelism and stop dividing the country.
Guiliani may be too late...

McCain is DEFINATELY too old and mean...
(Did he drop MORE F-bombs today?)

Huckadumbell would have spent more time in Michigan, but he couldn't even spot it on a map!
Who cheated on their wives more, McCain or Guiliani?

Maybe we can just add up the number of wives they've gone thru.

NOT the type of person we want for President - unless you want another Clinton Lewanski deal.
MCCAIN IS AN ADULTERER???

I thought he was just an angry old man...
but HORNY, too???

And that ISN'T his granddaughter???
(Exactly how much older will he be than his NEXT wife?)

Most of the rest of us aren't surprised, either.  Relieved, yes.  Surprised, no.
Guiliani's drops don't suprise me...
McCain is a nasty old man... and Huckabee isn't as intelligent as a man in the White House be...

I favor Romney... or maybe Thompson.  At least they have morals and a brain.
Rush, Hannity AND Beck are each trumpeting Mitt Romney and Thompson as true conservatives who have the best plans...

Could they ALL be wrong?  Or, let's face it, they're ALL right.

McCain is a "democrat in gop clothing"...
Huckabee is a "sheep in wolves clothing"...

Why is this so difficult?  

#1  Romney - 2 Masters Degrees in Economics from Harvard.  True conservative and responsible. History of positive changes.  Morally superior.

#2  Guiliani - Not as much smart as Romney, but a great leader.   Morals suspect.

#3  Thompson - Solid leader - won't give in to the Liberals.  True Conservative Morals suspect.

#4  McCain - War Veteran - Angry - too old - vile mouth (F bombs yesterday)  Morals of an alley-cat!
(Cheated on his various wives continously)

#6  Huckabee - Raised Taxes $500 million, allowed murders to go free, son tortures animals to death for "fun", weak on immigration, NOT VERY SMART.
McCain's "F-Bomb" attacks yesterday are one of the reason you hear so many people call him OLD AND ANGRY.  

And yes, I am concerned about this supposed man of "integrity" CHEATING on each of his wives...
(What will he do in office?  MONICA!!!!)
How could he be surprised?  He's omniscient and...uh...and...uh...9/11.
no way will the Mayor even come close to winning the elections....we have many good canadates but not him...I will move to China before i acknowledge him as president...His only accomplishments what little there were were in New York.. Other than that he keeps bringing up Regan and Bush....Change and Rudy Keep  yours in your pocket.  
Will Rudy's campaign be surprised by the avalanche of momentum that will hit Florida when John McCain wins in both Mich & SC?
Political observers said the news signaled a surprising cash squeeze in a campaign that was thought to be managing its finances well. It also underscored Giuliani's sharp decline in recent weeks from front-runner to struggling contender.

Is Rudy Giuliani finished?

http://www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=1527

.
Guiliani shouldn't be surprised - he hasn't been heard from in months.

Romney appears to be the most positive, intelligent candidate.

I keep trying to like McCain, but then I keep being reminded why I CAN'T vote for him.   He's vindictive, old and lacking seriously in economics.

Mike Huckabee seems like a nice enough guy - but I can't risk the nation's future on someone who doesn't know anything about economics or the business world.
The guy's a bean-bag.  God how I wish he'd get the nod.  He'd be easier to beat than Bush, were he allowed to run again.
This can't be a good development for Rudy.  
www.politico.com
The REAL UNITER  and Adult

Obama, putting out the fire


Carrie Budoff Brown has some key quotes from an Obama avail this afternoon in Reno, where he tried to put to rest the racially-charged name-calling.

You have seen a tone on the Democrat[ic] side of the campaign that has been unfortunate. I want to stipulate a couple of things. I may disagree with Senator Clinton and Senator Edwards on how to get there, but we share the same goals. We all believe in civil rights. We all believe in equal rights. They are good people. They are patriots....

I don't want the campaign at this stage to degenerate to so much tit-for-tat, back-and-forth, that we lose sight of why we are doing this.

Obama said he wants to send "a strong signal to my own supporters that let’s try to focus on the work that needs to get done. If I hear my own supporters engaging in talk that I think is ungenerous or misleading or unfair, I will speak out forcefully against it....

Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton have historically been on the right side of civil rights issues. They care about the African American community.… That is something I am convinced of. I want Americans to know that is my assessment.

I hope Rudy Giuliani wins...
John Mccain is a great candidate and I would support him, but he sounds TOO nice...

NO one better argue with me on this. I stated my views and no one can change them.

GO RUDY!
NINE ELEVEN  NEEDS TO GO BACK TO NEW YORK   AND GET A LIFE.  I WATCH HIM FOR ONE MINUTE AND FALL ASLEEP.
Fort Myers Florida the town of the newly weds and nearly deads.
Dear John McCain...

This is the 7th girlfriend/mistress you had with your 2nd (or 3rd?) wife...

How are ya cutie?

Good luck with that president stuff... can I see you in the White House?  

Love, Ginger

(p.s. - I won't tell your wife... which one are you on now?)
Rudy Who?
Is this the guy who is running for President of Florida and has a "big state" strategy?
Does history supports Guliani's strategy in the primaries? I am thinking that he is just waiting to be rolled over by who ever has the momentum going into Florida. He is lucky no one has yet enough momentum to do that for now. But that could all change in a couple of days. Anybody got a better analysis of possible scenarios?
Look, what are people talking about with John McCain and his girlfriends? Are you kidding me? Rudy's the cheater in this race.
Rude Rudy can't maintain a relationship with wives or votes,  bye bye Rudy
If McCain and Guiliani are known for being unfaithful (lying) with those that they should have the strongest bond with, they'll lie again to us the American people.  Huckabee's econonimcs are terrible.  They will hit the middle and low income American's more than anyone else.  He also hasn't been ethical in his political career.  The only one that deserves our support is Mitt Romney, unless you don't believe in true American values, honesty, integrity, trustworthiness, etc.
PLEASE, PLEASE vote for Rudy Giuliani so that we can complete the transformation of the US into a proper police state. I for one just don't feel completely secure all of the time, and would gladly forfeit the silly freedoms guaranteed by our obsolete constitution and paid for with the blood of millions of American soldiers, if I could just be a little safer from all those freedom hating terrorists. The notion that the US is the target of terrorists due to our incessant meddling in the affairs of other nations, as naive proponents of the constitution like Ron Paul assert is ludicrous and might make me accept the truth that America hasn't always been the benevolent promoter of individual liberty that I so desperately want to believe it has been. People like that might make me feel ashamed that as a participant in this democracy, I looked the other way while the government acted aggressively to protect the interests of big corporations.

For the last time, we are not waging a war in Iraq so that American petroleum companies can establish exploitative contracts to buy oil at discount prices. We're there because we're going to make the Iraqis are free even if we have to kill every last one of them to do it.



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