The battle for Michigan
Posted: Tuesday, January 15, 2008 9:26 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under:
Republicans
The Detroit Free Press curtain-raises today's primary, calling it "One of Michigan's weirdest and wildest presidential primary seasons. "Does Mitt Romney get his first Republican primary victory on the strength of his strong economic message in his native state, or does Sen. John McCain repeat his 2000 Michigan win with momentum from his big New Hampshire victory?" More: "[F]or Republicans, only this is certain: Clear differences exist among Romney and McCain, who have shuttled the last three days between metro Detroit and western Michigan, and Mike Huckabee, who visited the state briefly Monday."
The Detroit News: "Decision Time for Michigan." "At the center of today's contest: an electorate battered by layoffs, falling home values and rising uncertainty. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Arizona Sen. John McCain and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee visited the North American International Auto Show, paying homage to the industry that dominates the state despite the fading fortunes of the Big 3 automakers.”
"[T]he simultaneous development of a lively three-way race among Republicans and the lack of any Democratic campaigning due to a dispute over the primary calendar added greater uncertainty this year," the Boston Globe writes. "Now, campaigns and pollsters say they are even more flummoxed than usual about who will turn out to vote, in which party they will participate, and what will motivate them to do so.”
Indeed, polls have been all over the place in the Michigan GOP race. Part of the confusion is how will the Democratic primary affect the GOP race. Michigan holds an open primary, meaning Republicans, independents and Democrats can vote in either contest. But since the DNC stripped Michigan of all of its delegates, the candidates have signed a pledge not to campaign there and Hillary Clinton is the only major candidate whose name will appear on the ballot, uncertainty abounds as to how and where Democrats and independents will vote.
Here's a wrap of the latest polling in Michigan on the Republican side:
-- a Mitchell Interactive tracking poll conducted Jan. 12-14 shows Romney leading McCain, 35%-29% with Huckabee third at 12%.
-- a Detroit News poll (Jan. 9-12), though, shows McCain and Romney in a dead heat, 27%-26%, respectively, with Huckabee third with 19%.
-- a Detroit Free-Press poll, conducted by Selzer & Co. from Jan. 9-11, shows Romney with a five-point edge, 27%-22%, over McCain with Huckabee third at 16%.
-- and an MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon poll, also conducted from Jan. 9-11, showed Romney with an even wider advantage, 30%-22%, over McCain. Huckabee again was third with 17%.
McClatchy’s Lightman writes that “Michigan's Republican presidential primary on Tuesday is this election year's first clear referendum on who voters think can best manage - and revive - the slumping economy, which has hit this state harder than most.”
The Boston Globe challenges Romney's economic stance. Here's the paper's front-page headline: "Romney singing new tune, sweeter to Detroit's ears." "But as governor, Romney imposed tough emissions standards in December 2005 that added Massachusetts to a growing list of states seeking to force the auto industry to produce cleaner-burning cars - which automakers considered a back-door attempt to raise fuel standards. Under the rules, cars sold in the state after 2015 must emit 30 percent less carbon dioxide, 20 percent fewer toxic pollutants, and as much as 20 percent fewer smog- causing pollutants than under federal standards."
Sure, it's anecdotal, but the New Republic's Cohn senses Romney momentum in Michigan.
McCain hopes independents fuel a victory in Michigan. "I don't know how the voters are going to break," McCain said. "Whether they're Democrat, Republican, independent, libertarian, vegetarian, whatever they are, it's the same message."
The Washington Post isn't impressed with Romney's Michigan campaign promises.
