Why Romney won

Posted: Tuesday, January 15, 2008 11:35 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: 2008, Romney, Primaries, Michigan

From NBC's Adam Verdugo and Norah O'Donnell
This is a big win for Romney, and it keeps his presidential hopes alive. A loss here would have been devastating, if not fatal. A look inside the numbers tells us why he won. First, Republicans turned out in big numbers: 68% of the electorate in the Republican primary identified themselves as Republican, while only 25% identified themselves as Independents and 7% were crossover Democrats. Bottom line: Democrats and Independents were just not the factor they had been for John McCain in New Hamphire, or for that matter, eight years ago in Michigan when McCain beat George W. Bush. In New Hampshire, 60% were Republicans, compared with 37% who identified as Independents.

There was also the favorite-son factor. Romney benefited from his roots in this state where he was born and where his father was governor and chairman of American Motors. Of the 41% that said that Romney's ties to Michigan were at least somewhat important in their vote, Romney won more than half -- 58% -- while McCain only received 17%.

Lastly, Romney also benefited because 44% of Republicans in this primary felt the most important quality was to have a candidate who shared their values. Of those who said this, Romney received 37%, Huckabee 26%, and McCain 17%.

Also noteworthy: 41% of the electorate in the Republican primary identified themselves as Evangelical Christian. Romney, who is a practicing Mormon, received as many of those votes as the former Baptist minister Mike Huckabee.

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Comments

He bought the election.

Greg Harris, Detroit ,Mi. (Sent Tuesday, January 15, 2008 11:43 PM)

Morman? Freudian slip much?

MrR0ng, Las Vegas, NV (Sent Tuesday, January 15, 2008 11:44 PM)

Oh God ,now we got to hear from this Republican idiot for the next week !

Bill Blast, St.Louis,Mo. (Sent Tuesday, January 15, 2008 11:45 PM)

Wow, from the state that brought you Gerald Ford, the looser.

Sam Tressel, Toledo, Ohio (Sent Tuesday, January 15, 2008 11:47 PM)

Oh, if you're going to use the nickname, at least get it right folks... MormOn, not MormAn. It would be like me spelling this First Reed or First Red.

Sorry to be anal about it, but even spellcheck probably could have caught that one.

Mike (Sent Tuesday, January 15, 2008 11:51 PM)

I doubt these numbers. Clinton, clearly, was given more time to answer questions during the debate. She, also was asked questions on topics, first, which of course, allowed her to set the tone for the softball issues thrown her way. Clearly, NBC has an agenda here.

Wilva, Raleigh, NC (Sent Wednesday, January 16, 2008 12:01 AM)

mormon

Paul F, Redlands, CA (Sent Wednesday, January 16, 2008 12:04 AM)

Gotta love those 7% crossover Democrats. Good job, Dailykos!!

Bob in Denver (Sent Wednesday, January 16, 2008 12:05 AM)

Thanks for correcting the spelling! Too bad the errors of other comments can't be fixed that quickly.

Greg, I guess you know first-hand of someone who actually received money for voting for Romney?

Bill, you obviously don't "got" to do anything, since you haven't yet listened to anyone who values education. Otherwise, I believe you would have used proper grammar.

Sam, from whom did Gerald Ford loose us from?

C'mon, guys, if you're going to be upset, at least finish high school before you start throwing the stones. By the way, I haven't earned much more than my high school diploma, so I'm not really one to talk... just on a rant I guess.

Congrats to Romney and good luck to all candidates in the next states.

Mike (Sent Wednesday, January 16, 2008 12:16 AM)

I admit. It might be sour grapes but I counted:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21228652/

Michigan has 87 counties. Romney wins 40 of those 87, not even half. Look at St. Joseph county, McCain 38%-Huckabee 25%-Romney 25%

In the counties Romney does win, the number of votes tend to show large urban populations.

Might this be a regional phenomena? Does anyone know of a site that shows Michigan with its' counties shown?

1dukentan, Melbourne, AR (Sent Wednesday, January 16, 2008 12:20 AM)

Hey Mike, better check the settings on your "spellcheck." I think it's spelled "mormoron."

1dukentan, Melbourne, AR (Sent Wednesday, January 16, 2008 12:24 AM)

It sounds like Michigan did NOT want to hear the truth: Some of those jobs are NOT comming back, no matter what Romney tells the good people of Michigan. O well, on to SC.

OPa2 (Sent Wednesday, January 16, 2008 1:02 AM)

Be nice, folks. Our columnist friend is just demonstrating how little Americans really know about Mormins...More-men's...Mor---mons.

Jed Merrill (Sent Wednesday, January 16, 2008 1:03 AM)

Please Please Please nominate Romney...any of the Dems will mop up on him, worst defeat since Goldwater in '64......if you think Kerry flip flopped or Bill was 'slick Willy' you ain't seen nothing yet like you'll see from this moron....

The Edge, Macon, GA (Sent Wednesday, January 16, 2008 1:06 AM)

I don't think anyone can say Mitt bought any election. His campaign is going to be more expensive than anyone else's because he is not as well known. McCain and Giuliani have billions of dollars of free publicity, and Mitt only had the Olympics, for which athletes and gold medals were the face.

In the long run, Michigan could be priceless to Mitt, just as Iowa took Huckabee from nobody to somebody.

One more thing--Mitt actually beat Huckabee in the evangelical vote in Michigan, 33% to 31%. This article says they tied, which is ALMOST accurate.

Jed Merrill (Sent Wednesday, January 16, 2008 1:07 AM)

The Mormon stuff is getting old and Michigan thought it was old also. When is this bigotry going to end? Never for this group of people.

Romney won not only because of the message, but because of the hard work of his ground game. He is an expert at organizing and motivating people. People like myself that devoted 7 hours over the weekend to calling and many more convincing my acquaintances of his viability as a candidate.
Note to McCain. Don't tell me that my job as an engineer can just go away in the automotive industry. Tell me you will fight to keep jobs here. I don't need retrained for the service industry at half the pay and benefits.

Note to McCain 2: You may be the "teller of truths", but if your hands are dirty you still did the crime. We conservatives remember your past sins.

AMM (Sent Wednesday, January 16, 2008 1:09 AM)

1dukentan,

Touche. Even though I'm LDS, I do appreciate witty banter. Well done.

Mike (Sent Wednesday, January 16, 2008 1:15 AM)

Oh Mike,

I just know you're gonna rag me about it so I'll place two periods at the end of this sentence..

And I'll simply make one slight adjustment to your most previous post.

Sentence three, "since you have yet to listen to anyone who values education." There is one more that might be improved, but I must sleep for now. I've been grading papers. Good luck with your attempt to earn something more than your diploma.

1dukentan, Melbourne, AR (Sent Wednesday, January 16, 2008 1:26 AM)

Romney deserved to win Michigan. The man is the greatest candidate to fix the economy. Not too competition. Regarding the Mormon thing, our mayor in Honolulu is Mormon and has done and is doing a fabulous job. He has great values and doesn't rub religion in anyone's face. This man would be the best President we have had in decades. Romney '08

James, Honolulu, HI (Sent Wednesday, January 16, 2008 2:07 AM)

It would have been funny if this fake would have lost in his own home state.

Chuck, Miami, FL (Sent Wednesday, January 16, 2008 6:42 AM)

I understand the reasoning behind the Democrats decision to try and be less attacking of each other on race and gender. After the start of the debate where they all talked about not using either race or gender; Hillary still spoke a couple of times of being a women candidate; I waited for that Reagan like response "There you go again" it did not come about. When John Edwards was asked about the piling on reports by he and Obama after the last debates; How could he say anything about it. here is Hillary sitting between the two of them, with very profound support from women voters who came racing to save her from these two men attacking her. Everytime she can turn legitimate questions of her in to being attacks she wins. It reminds me of how Bush bullied everyone and got away with it because of being the faith bases and war President. Too bad we have so divided this country that it can all be distorted by one group. How can anyone debate her anymore; she has a trump card does she ladies.

Randy Aldrich, Ft. Mohave, Arizona (Sent Wednesday, January 16, 2008 7:44 AM)

Now that the folks in Michigan have voted
It's Mitt's coffers that will now get bloated

With a primary win now in his pocket
I'll proceed to put my finger in a light socket

It's the economy friends that Mitt will correct
Gives us pause to think and reflect

So as candidates move on to South Carolina
As they say in Boston things couldn't be finah

Here's to the people along Tobacco Road
Your votes now carry a heavy load

Don't let the candidates give a smile and a wink
Before casting your vote please take time to think

For our kids, our future, and our mental health
Don't vote for a candidate based on their wealth

So lend an ear and give a good listen
See through the veneer their viewpoint to glisten

As folks drop out through loss and attrition
All things being equal I'd rather be fishin'

Know that your vote is never wasted
By that simple act it's democracy you've tasted

When casting your ballot at your voting place
It's up to you to determine this race

Phred, NH (Sent Wednesday, January 16, 2008 8:40 AM)

I don't care how he won, as long as he beat Grandpa McCain! It's amazing the people who have spent time in Washington, now tries to distant themselves, McCain is different than most repubs; I admit. Although, this war stuff has got to go. Don't even like Romney, but go ROMNEY, GO everyone...BEAT MCCAIN!

What is going on? OH (Sent Wednesday, January 16, 2008 8:55 AM)

It is interesting that Giuliani again only got single digit support. While his strategy of focusing on Florida and the "Big" states that vote on Feb 5th may pay off, it seems that the one time frontrunner should have been able to at least break 10% in at least one of these early contests.

Tim M, Ithaca (Sent Wednesday, January 16, 2008 9:04 AM)

Good for Mitt Romney! Some people seem to care how much money you have instead of the principles and issues you stand for. I think some under estimate the people of America when they say things like he bought the election. Are we that shallow? To me its sour grapes. McCain and Huckabee both comment on his money and I'm getting tired of it. Let's stick with issues. Romney's money doesn't have me looking any more seriously at his commercials or comments than the others. I am keeping an open mind listening to the debates, but the others lose me when they attack the money he has, which by the way he made on his own. Congrats to all three for their wins, this is getting very interesting. I like having all these choices still. Thanks Michigan.

Kathy, Maine (Sent Wednesday, January 16, 2008 9:46 AM)

I will bring those jobs back.

Those jobs are gone and aren't coming back.

Guess which messages plays better to Michigan's hurting population.

DCortez, Houston, Texas (Sent Wednesday, January 16, 2008 10:17 AM)

Why mitt won-very close personal ties to the state, a state in terrible financial mess, so not hard to figure out what to talk about-tell the voters what they want to hear (things he can not and will not do if elected) spend millions of dollars campaigning, have other candidates who aren't worth voting for either, and,like magic-he wins!

Steve A Jonesboro IN (Sent Wednesday, January 16, 2008 11:20 AM)

I-dukentan "Hey Mike, better check the settings on your "spellcheck." I think it's spelled "mormoron.""

Only if you're trying to smear with religious bigotry, otherwise Mike has it right. It would be refreshing to see people learn how to spell, use proper grammar, etc.

By the way, DCortez pretty much explained why Romney did well in Urban areas- that's where the recession/job loss is hitting home the most. It doesn't really matter how many counties you win. It matters how many VOTES you get. That's why a state like NY has so many more delegates than a place like Montana. Montana is much bigger, but NY has far more people. Romney beat McCain by more than 80,000 votes- thus the 9% lead. Huckabee had barely half of what McCain had.

Check cnn.com for the stats.

Kira, Utah (Sent Wednesday, January 16, 2008 12:41 PM)

By the way, according to the exit polls, Romney actually got MORE votes than Huckabee from the self-proclaimed evangelicals/born agains by at least 5% in almost all the polls. In fact, people of nearly all religious backgrounds preferred him. In case you were curious.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#MIREP

The exit polls also show that Romney did well in the Suburbs...

Kira, Utah (Sent Wednesday, January 16, 2008 12:56 PM)

Sometimes people need to believe lies, it makes the medicene go down easier.
Michigan will go democrats way in the general.

Little Benny Franklin (Sent Wednesday, January 16, 2008 3:38 PM)

Actually, Romney got more of the evangelicals than Huckabee did... by at least 5%. see cnn.com for the exit polls.

Kira, Utah (Sent Wednesday, January 16, 2008 4:10 PM)

I dukentan-

"Hey Mike, better check the settings on your "spellcheck." I think it's spelled "mormoron.""

Only if you're a bigot. Otherwise, Mike has it right. It would be refreshing to see that bloggers have some sense of the English language (grammar, spelling, punctuation, etc.).

As far as the "urban" numbers are concerned, the number of counties each candidate won doesn't matter. Primaries are about raw votes. Romney beat McCain by more than 80,000. Exit polls also show that he did well in urban and suburban and rural areas.

Kira, Utah (Sent Wednesday, January 16, 2008 4:13 PM)

Hey! enough with the Mormon bashing, or race or anything else! Mitt fixed the olympics and turned several companies from loosers into winners as well. Look for the positive in a canadate and quit harping on the percived negatives! Go Mitt!

Dave in Idaho (Sent Wednesday, January 16, 2008 4:45 PM)

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