ABOUT FIRST READ

First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Special Edition: Saturday First Thoughts

Posted: Saturday, January 19, 2008 9:30 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under:

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Saturday two-fer: The next round of nominating contests occurs today, as Republicans in South Carolina and Democrats and Republicans in Nevada go to the polls/caucuses. The South Carolina primary starts things off, with polls opening at 7:00 am ET and closing at 7:00 pm ET. The Nevada Democratic caucuses, meanwhile, take place at 2:30 pm ET (sites open at 2:00 pm), and the state party expects to have results by 5:00 pm ET. Theses caucuses operate just like the Iowa Dem ones did -- caucus-goers can make a second choice if their original pick doesn’t receive a minimum threshold of support. And the GOP caucuses in the state follow the Iowa GOP model -- they're more like a straw poll and there is no second choice. They begin at noon ET, and results should start coming in at 1:30 pm ET.

*** You spin me right round, baby right round…: In Nevada, both Clinton and Obama are engaged in a furious expectations-setting game. Clinton strategist Mark Penn put out one of the funnier poll memos we’ve seen, which basically argued that the polls might be right or they might be wrong. OK, thanks Mark. Obama's folks are trying to walk back the cockiness they had with Nevada a week ago when they got the Culinary Workers nod. All in all, both campaigns are trying to make their victories meaningful and their losses forgetful. Our man in Nevada, Jon Ralston, thinks Clinton's going to eke it out, because the Culinary union didn't endorse soon enough and therefore wasn't able to voter educate. Ralston is clearly a bit uncomfortable trying to predict, but no one understands Nevada's tribal-like politics better, so we'll take his word for it.

*** The elimination game? As for South Carolina, the question is whether this GOP primary actually eliminates any contenders? We thought so a week ago -- but we aren't so sure now. If McCain, Huckabee, and Thompson are a close 1, 2, 3, what's the incentive for any to get out? The onlyone is if money dries up. For McCain and Thompson, that's a real possibility; for Huckabee, not so much -- he can live off the land a bit easier than the other two. Weather could be a HUGE factor with snow hurting Huckabee. Of course, the good news for Huckabee is that his voters are the most fervent and may not be intimidated by the weather. No one needs this victory more than McCain. He has to prove to skeptics that he can win a GOP primary that is dominated by actual Republicans (of course, the exit polls in New Hampshire did show McCain slightly beating Romney among GOP voters).

*** What happens outside Vegas? So everyone knows the fight in Vegas between the gaming establishment (siding with Clinton) and the Culinary Union (with Obama). But there's been little talk about what's been going on in Nevada outside of Vegas. Will there be an increase in youth turnout? What about women? And Latinos? Will the caucus sites get overwhelmed with new voters like Iowa? Answer these questions and you'll likely be able to figure out who's going to win.

*** Win one for the Gipper: When we first heard Obama utter the praise for Reagan as a change agent, we didn't think much of it. First, it seemed to be done as a historical observation. Second, from experience, we know that Democrats just don't have a hate for Reagan that they do for Bush -- at least 20 years removed from the Gipper’s presidency. Just ask Jim Webb. But both Clinton and Edwards have seized upon Obama’s comments, and on reflection, it's probably something Obama shouldn't have walked into. Let someone else compare him to Reagan; he shouldn't be comparing himself. Ultimately, he probably doesn't want to get into a debate over whether he thinks Reagan was a better inspirational leader than Bill Clinton. (Of course ask yourself this: Was the Democratic Party as strong after Bill left office, as the Republican Party was after Reagan did? Al Gore and George H.W. can answer that.) Obama may think that Reagan was a more transformational leader than Clinton, and historians might agree. But it's not what rank-and-file Democratic primary voters want to hear. Then again, Obama may be re-appealing to indies and soft GOPers again after a week of racial chatter that seemed to do some serious damage to Obama's standing with white voters, particularly in South Carolina.

*** Angry Bill…: Bill Clinton is proving once again to be better at delivering negative messages than positive ones. "Today when my daughter and I were wandering through the hotel, and all these Culinary workers were mobbing us, telling us they didn't care what they'd been told to do, they were gonna caucus for Hillary, there was a representative of the organization trotting along behind us going up to everybody that said that and said, if you aren't gonna vote for our guy we're gonna give you a schedule tomorrow so you can't be there. So, is this the new politics? I haven't seen anything like this in America in 35 years." Bill's getting angrier and angrier. Not to play pop psychologist, but spouses are always more loyal (and therefore more angry about how something's playing out politically) than the candidate.

*** … And a tougher Barack: Don’t miss this Washington Post article: Obama is starting to get more aggressive. Frankly, he has to. The Clintons -- particularly Bill (see above) -- are coming at him harder these days, and for a while Obama wasn’t fighting back. Now he is. Of course, every time he goes on the attack, he has to worry about looking like just another politician.

*** Final SC thoughts: And with one of us on the ground in South Carolina, here are a few final thoughts on the GOP contest there: Thompson’s crowd yesterday of more than 400 anti-immigration, national security hardliners was fervent and he was animated, pacing back and forth on the stage gesturing forcefully and talking tough. He got "Amens" and "that's rights" Perhaps his best performance yet? But one can’t help but feel that had he given his all and had he bought into the process, he could win this thing -- which he probably won’t. Huck, playing guitar again, drew a smaller crowd than Fred (about 250 to 300) at the University of South Carolina in Columbia. And many on the ground are questioning the level of zeal here among evangelicals compared with Iowa. As for McCain, he's going to get the veterans and coastal voters. It's almost as if they’re on a mission. Maybe they even think something's owed to him from 2000. This state will break three ways -- the coast, Lexington County and the upstate. McCain solely campaigned at the coast yesterday, while Huckabee and Thompson campaigned in the same neighborhoods upstate.

*** On the trail: On the Republican side, Huckabee, McCain, and Thompson are all in South Carolina; Giuliani is in Florida; and Romney is in Nevada before traveling to Florida. On the Dem side, Clinton holds a rally in Vegas (at Andre Agassi Prep College) before heading to an evening rally in St. Louis; Edwards also campaigns in St. Louis before heading to Atlanta and Greenville, SC; and Obama does a retail stop in Vegas and holds a caucus party there. *** Update*** It looks like Clinton's Vegas rally will be cancelled.

Countdown to SC Dem primary: 7 days
Countdown to Florida: 10 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 17 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 290 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 367 days

Click here to sign up for First Read emails.

MAIN PAGE

Email this EMAIL THIS

Comments

"all these Culinary workers were mobbing us, telling us they didn't care what they'd been told to do, they were gonna caucus for Hillary, there was a representative of the organization trotting along behind us going up to everybody that said that and said, if you aren't gonna vote for our guy we're gonna give you a schedule tomorrow so you can't be there."

Yeah, Bill, because the culinary union sets employee daily schedules and not their employers.

Does he think we're all stupid?

Bill Clinton is the perfect reminder that having a good, smart President who is also a shameless lying ass is not the best we can aspire to.  It's too bad he has to remind us about the worst parts of his Presidency in his fervor to take down Obama at any cost - too bad for him, not for Obama, who benefits from the honesty comparison with the Clintons that Bill's comments provoke.
seems that everyone is aware of the editorial on hillary's website where she prasies Reagan except you guys....the politico also has a long article of the numerous times she said the same thing Obama did

http://www.hillaryclinton.com/news/release/view/?id=4674
Bill Clinton talking about culinary workers did not seem angry to me, but I am reading words not seeing him or hearing inflection. That is what is wrong when you just are reading and not using all your senses.
Be very carful, reading does not give you all the information you need. We survive because we use all of our senses. It would seem though that the media story lately is that Bill is the angry one. I will ignore that because I don't trust the media to give me the whole story.
If Barack wins today it's going to be because the culinary executives threatened their employees to vote for Barack and not who they (the employees) actually wanted to...

It's corruption at it's finest.... But of course this couldn't be Obama since he's "hopeful"....
Bill Clinton has lost all credibility. He was completely wrong in his repeated statement that votes at Las Vegas strip caucus sites are 5 times more powerful.  Don't believe a word he says.
Despite the pathetic and heavy handed tactics being used by the CW Union, nobody in Nevada is worried about them, and they plan to vote for Hillary. the CWU made a big mistake endorsing Obama, and they know it. When Hillary wins NV, the union leaders are going to be up a creek, without a paddle:)
Luckily for Obama, Bill/Hillary Clinton's attacks are rooted in hearsay and misrepresentation.  Honestly, what kind of a comment is that from Bill Clinton?  No one can confirm or deny that that occurred except for his daughter who has rarely spoken at all in this whole thing.  Did he ask all of them to produce their union cards so that he could confirm that they were culinary workers?  Did anyone else actually see this evil union overlord lurking behind the Clintons and reigning in these wayward Culinary workers?  He's so full of $#!+ it's amazing.  Why do you even print this stuff?
So, did Huckabee and McCain ever trade any real shots? I think the beloved host of Meet the Press suggested they would, by now.

Suppose Huckabee loses SC and starts to fade? What does he have, for his efforts? He might be a good choice for Veep by McCain. McCain pulls the lib to mod GOP. Huck pulls the conservatives. Is the GOP in a good spot to win, anyway. It will be hard for Huck to transform the party into a social conservative worker's party in 6 months. I can see his acceptance speech. It's possible. Would Huck have a better grasp of the thing in four years, whether as Veep or something else?

The Dems had to treat Dean pretty well, though he lost. The GOP would probably want to find a way to integrate Huck into the party.

Hucks's a little low key. I don't think he wants to overshoot. If he wins, he can continue to build a message. I do think McCain/Huck would be the GOP's strongest ticket. But maybe the GOP has run out the string and deserves to lose.

I AM SICK TO DEATH OF BILL CLINTON POINTING HIS FINGER TO MAKE HIS POINT...HE DID THIS ON TELEVISION WHEN HE SWORE TO US THAT HE DIDN'T HAVE SEX WITH THIS WOMAN...WHO IS RUNNING...HILLIARY OR BILL??? THE CLINTONS ARE LIARS AND THE ONLY EXPERIENCE SHE HAS IS TO BE UNDEDRHANDEDD AND DEVIOUS AND WIN AT ANY COST...BOTH OF THEM ARE POWER HUNGRY...LETS  NOT MAKE THE SAME MISTAKE AS WE DID WITH BUSH...QUIT VOTING FOR LIARS
The one factor that people are missing about Obama is that when he refers to Martin Luther King and how it affected him, people forget that he was raised by his "white" mother and his "white grandparents."  Thus, how did King affect him when he lived in a "white" society and grew up with "white" people?  I don't see him entering an african-american population until he met and married his wife.  And that was when he found christianity because she was a christian.  His paternal side on muslim no matter what he says, they are.  Mr. Obama has not spent enough time in the black world to utter Mr. King's name.  Now that is how he is using the race card and he doesn't deserve to use it.
"...for a while Obama wasn’t fighting back. Now he is. Of course, every time he goes on the attack, he has to worry about looking like just another politician."
Excuse me but he is just another politician!  They all are!
All of the dirty allegations and false election info is totally irrelevant as far as I am concerned. In California, where absentee ballots are cast, I voted for Clinton on January 12 and mailed in my ballot. Let the battle continue.
I laugh when people think that Obama cannot withstand the republican attacks if nominated.  The garbage Obama has to put up with every single day from the Clinton machine is so much worst than the republicans could ever do.
This morning on Morning Joe, Mike Barnacle said the Clintons will do anything, literally anything, to get back into the white house and I wholeheartedly agree.

As for the Reagan comments, I suggest people read all about the presidents Hillary admires most on her web site:  HW Bush and Reagan on the list.
The Clintons also have comments made a few years ago praising Reagan.
Bill Clinton just does not get that his lies and outrageous comments can be fact checked within a matter of minutes.  he is just sooooooo 90s.
Why in world would anyone want put these two con artists back in the white house, a former president who was impeached when they could put either Obama or Edwards, far superior candidates, is amazing.
ummm, yes shadow hampton, unions actually do have a very strong influence over who works and whom does not. evidently you have little experience with unions. clinton doesn't need to assume your level of intelligence, you do a fine job of pointing that out  yourself...
"Yeah, Bill, because the culinary union sets employee daily schedules and not their employers.

Does he think we're all stupid?"

Actually, yes, he does....he (and she) totally rely on it


The radio ad of racist hatred against Hillary Clinton by Obama supporters will backfire on the Obama campaign. America is watching and we can all see now that OBAMA IS A LYING RACIST DIVIDER!
The wishy-washy articles on this site are an outrage. First, Hillary Clinton is washed up and we are reading her political obit in Mr. Todd's (and others') columns; now she is unstoppable.

MSNBC needs to hire some competent writers and political analysts. I could sit in front of a computer all day, watch polls and read blogs and then clack out some abolute nonesense like the type which  is routinely offered here.

I see nothing in the way of insight or even hypothetical musing in this tripe; it is merely a waste of time and space which might be otherwise dedicated to *news* or even opinion, both of which are sadly lacking here.  

And, for the record, most ordinary citizens are not enamored with the acuity of reporters or pundits -- so the constant self-referential "spin" offered by msnbc's staff is both insulting and purile. Yes, reporters are often wrong and yes, the media often exerts a negative influence on American politics and society.

So, being stuck on one's-self for one's shortcomings as the msnbc news staff seems to be -- is just about the biggest admission of ego and ignorance one could hope for. Your news staff seems to be as tickled by their own incompetence as they are struck dumb by the public spotlight.

Pathetic.

Modern day liberals are nothing more than communists and socialists. If the free loading liberals get their way, they will wreck our country. They should all move to Canada, Europe, or Russia.
The Clintons are like a Tornado, uprooting everything and anyone in their path to POWER. Back to the same old same old...And to put down Reagan like that! HE ended the Cold War, brought down the Wall in Berlin, I know Friends who are turning to Obama BECAUSE of his observations of Reagan.  
This reminds me of the comment one of the moderators on CNN made the night the Iowa caucus had finished and Obama had won. He said, "Obama will need to be careful now; the Clintons will get more aggressive. He needs to watch his back."

This is, however, the most interesting early race on both sides I've seen every.
You have GOT to be kidding.  Where are you guys when it comes to objective reporting and comments?  In my view, what Clinton said is accurate, and points to the kind of voter coercion that connects to the real problem--what the Reps are doing to restrain voting rights (machines; 9 hours waiting periods; Indiana law that requires photo id when about 35% of population--mostly, of course, dems) and the like.  And you are characterizing an observation about this type of coercion as "angry"--give me a break; if he did not respond like that, you guys would call it spineless.  I am in the middle on Clinton/Obama, leaning to Clinton because WHAT HAS OBAMA MANAGED IN HIS CAREER???, but this "objective reporting" really irks.
Once again we see the double standard at it's best.If Hillary or anyone else dares say anything negative about Ity Bity Obama,they are immediatly labeled as racest negative and slanderous.But if Obama comments in kind,wellll thats perfectly O,K.Talk about playing the race card.
I strongly believe Bill Clinton wants to be President again.  He will be channeled via Hillary.  It will be a two-head hydra, cycloptic presidency.  So yeah, he's fighting mad that it's not a walk in the park, a tiptoe through the tulips.  He believes he is the best thing to happen to the Democratic party since JFK and believes we Dems should think so too.  Bill you lost your soul a along time ago, I won't vote for you or Obama.  I'm going Edwards.
This is not an election. This is a caucus and the union paid representatives and the shop stewards will be there to see that the workers caucus where they want them. For those of you that have not worked in a union shop, in many instances the union has a say in the scheduling process. This is an unfair advantage. I am a Hillary supporter and a past union member for many years. You Clinton bashers are mostly republicans and if you are Obama democrats you ought to be ashamed of yourself for some of the ridiculous comments. If you need to say something, talk about the issues and what is good for America and the Democratic party.
The Clintons have simply embraced the Big Lie philosophy. Say something so outrageous that the public assumes it must be the truth, since no reputable human would venture to say it otherwise. Problem comes when you realize how many people still view the Clintons as "reputable"...

Seriously hoping to see Shrillary lose both Nev and SC, since the sight of Bubba's WC Fields-like nose getting all red with his outrage has become one of the more entertaining sights this primary season.
Why are we listening to a former president who didn't have the wherewithall to turn down the request to be deposed for a CIVIL lawsuit (which he could have done) and then lie about what they were asking him about and then proceeded to get impeached for PERJURY? How can we trust anything that this person says? He doesn't even know how to strategically position himself-what would he know about how to strategically remove troops from Iraq? Mr. 'didn't inhale' has alot more questionable integrity than Mr. Obama.
What is truly amazing is anyone would believe that just because your union says they endorse someone that the membership is going to follow suit.  The Clintons should just go away.
the hope here is that the two cry babies have done just enough damage to themselves and each other, that Nevada can view edwards as the real alternative and edwards can squeak out a win; because if that happens, he's got a very good shot at South Carolina and two states in a row would mean that the networks will have to start giving him some props-....and then its anybody's ballgame at that point....come on NEVADA make a real choice today-GO EDWARDS!!!
The Pervert President is angry,poor boy. I feel sorry for his Daughter,unless she is shameless as well,in having to accompany her father.
Bill Clinton is the perfect reminder that having a good, smart President who is also a shameless lying ass is not the best we can aspire to.  It's too bad he has to remind us about the worst parts of his Presidency in his fervor to take down Obama at any cost - too bad for him, not for Obama, who benefits from the honesty comparison with the Clintons that Bill's comments provoke.

Yeah and if you believe this crap you just wrote maybe you are stupid?
When asked the question a few days ago,Hillary said she decided to run for President last December.While watching C-Span last night, they showed one of her events.She said she'd been waiting 14 year's to get Universal health care passed.Now, she's been in the Senate since 2001, if she was so Adamant about Health care, why has she been waiting 14 year's for the oppurtunity? Was this a gaffe on here part, or did she lie again about when she decided on this Presidential run?

Maybe some of the 1st read's Political pundit's can weigh in on this.
The clintons SUCKS! Hmm, cant complain...democrats all sucks! by the way...am not republican!!!
Two new polls from SC released this morning have the race completely shifting, with Huckabee surging ahead to a lead or a tie. The numbers seem to move to much to be trustworthy to me, but here they are: http://www.campaigndiaries.com/2008/01/snow-and-caucus-realignment-could-make.html
Don't worry about who has the support of who. Do your own research and pick the best candidate for you. It is all a distraction to get you off focus. Everyone has a war of words sometimes, make sure your words reflect the kind of candidate you want to see in the House.
Whose running against Obama again? Bill or Hillary...I forget. No kidding that Obama has to get tougher. He's being completely tag teamed by the Clintons. Although I can't say if Bill is really helping. Seems like Hillary spends alot of time cleaning up the messes Bubba makes when he's off his leash.  

Sorry to sound disrespectful of a former president but he's kind of demeaning his own stature when he's out there mixing it up with reporters and shooting off his mouth all the time. If this is how he acts during the campaign, I can't wait to see what happens if Hillary becomes president.
The bottom line here is that Clinton has experience and Obama doesn`t! Our economy was in the black for his 8 years and thats enough for my vote! And we will have 2 presidents if the clintons get in...HA!HA!
Isn't Hillary running for President?  Why does Bill get this much attention.  Are any of the other candidate's significant others getting this kind of media attention.  Remember this man doesn't know what the meaning of the word "is" is, and also desecrated the White House over and over with Monica.  Have you seen the recent bumper stickers in Kentucky?  Monica Lewinsky's exboybriend's wife is running for President!  Boy, that says it all:)
fred thompson is dividing the republican party with his lies.  who are the idiots voting for him with his tropy wife, he should be a democrat.
I heard him and it's true.  Vote for Hillary!!
I used to be a Clinton supporter, but Bill's antics are so off the wall that i'm beginning to see all the crazy things Republicans said about the Clintons. These guys are so desperate for power, they'll say and do anything to attain it.
Bill Clinton is really galling.  He thinks that Hillary should be President because "they" are entitled to it.  It's the voters' decision.  If she is elected maybe she will show the good judgment to divorce him.
Is anyone else getting a bit tired of the behind the scene politics?  The Bill/Hillary campaign speaks for itself.  Hillary needs to stand on her own and not depend on the mad dog doing the dirty work.  In all other settings, mad dogs would be put down or at least restrained.  Give me a McCain vs Obama campaign and we'd have a run for office we could all be proud of!  
It's too bad Hiliary Clinton does not see her husband is really her extra luggage. Iowa showed us the presidential race is not so much about change as it is about morales. That's why Huckabee won - preacher man. Bill Clinton is morally corrupt and hurts Hiliary's chances.
Shadow, I know exactly what you mean. I could believe he heard that from one, maybe even a couple. But no one believes it happens the way Bill says it did. And he knows that. And he doesn't care.

Its like the flap over what Obama said about Reagan. For a good part of yesterday, based on how the Clintons were spinning through the roof, I thought Obama must have said something additional than what I heard. And then I figure out that all this talk about praise, and how Reagan is Obama's favorite president, blah, blah, blah, was from Obama's one comment that Reagan changed the political landscape in 1980.

And they know they'll get caught. Still they don't care. I've never seen people - the Clintons - with so little shame in all my life.
I think this whole thing is being blown out of proportion. And I think that this country is doing what they do best. They are being gender and race specific, rather than thinking about who is best for the leadership of this nation.
We have had eight years of leadership by a president who is more interested with saving face, than he is in saving our nation and her people. Don't you think it's time that we the people actually became a viable force to be reckoned with? Vote not for what is black or what is a woman. Vote instead for the best "Man" for the job. Hillary Clinton spent eight years in the hot box; and she did a damn good job up there. She has spent another eight years as the Senator from one of the toughest states in the union. Don't you think it's about time that we look at who is running instead of what? Get Serious!
I think Bill Clinton is a smart and realizes people have short memories unfortunately.  I'm sure he's counting on people to see what he said on t.v and change their votes, like possibly women did for Hillary in N.Hamp. Although I'm content with Hillary, I really want to see Barack Obama get the nomination. He inspires me to be more involved in politics.
Maybe "the Clintons" would be more believable if the didn't start telling these lies on "Day 1" of their campaign. "They" are like the boy who cried wolf.

Remember in Iowa:

"They" accused Senator Obama of bussing in people from Illinois to participate in the caucuses. Not true.

"They" said that even though out of state college students had the right to vote, they shouldn't. (Even had Mr. Yepsen write up in the paper to make it all official. Then in New Hampshire, she was magically transformed into the youth candidate! lol)

One of "their" supporters criticized the caucus system as unfair. "They" claimed not to agree with that opinion. But once "they" lost, "they" weren't going to win, they said that the caucus system was unfair - sound familiar? (After months of telling Iowa voters how very special they were, they threw the whole state under the bus less than 24 hours later - hysterical!)

"They" said that someone from the Obama campaign called a Clinton supporter and gave her the wrong polling place - only the info given was correct.

"They" said to watch out for dirty tricks from the Obama campaign, then it was discovered that several of their campaign workers were forwarding the Muslim email.

That's just Iowa - nothing's changed. The fact that a former President of the United States, famous for being an untrustworthy "falsehood teller" (trying to be respectful) would unleash yet ANOTHER tirade of baseless "untruths" (again I'm really trying) against Senator Obama on the day of the caucus confirms what I have always known - Bill and Hillary Clinton CANNOT be allowed to move back into the White House. They continue to shame America with their shameless ways.
Shadow -- yes, Bill Clinton DOES think we're all that stupid.

On another note, why does McCain need S. Carolina more than Huckabee?  If Huckabee can't even win in states like S. Carolina, w/ its religious conservatism, where is he going to win?  At least McCain has some hope of winning more moderate states.
One can only hope those young and foolish fools who think Obama Bin Laden is qualified for the presidency will wake up soon. He is not! Dump him now!
I like Ike !


SEND A COMMENT

PLEASE READ: All comments must be approved before appearing in the thread; time and space constraints prevent all comments from appearing. We will only approve comments that are directly related to the blog, use appropriate language and are not attacking the comments of others.

Message (please, no HTML tags. Web addresses will be hyperlinked):

TRACKBACKS

Trackbacks are links to weblogs that reference this post. Like comments, trackbacks do not appear until approved by us. The trackback URL for this post is: http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/trackback.aspx?PostID=590344

First Read e-mail alerts


Sign up for First Read alerts
The first place for key political news and analysis

Syndicate This Site

Add First Read to your news reader:
live.com xml
myyahoo msn
bloglines newsgator
google