Special Edition: Saturday First Thoughts
Posted: Saturday, January 19, 2008 9:30 AM by Mark Murray
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Saturday two-fer: The next round of nominating contests occurs today, as Republicans in South Carolina and Democrats and Republicans in Nevada go to the polls/caucuses. The South Carolina primary starts things off, with polls opening at 7:00 am ET and closing at 7:00 pm ET. The Nevada Democratic caucuses, meanwhile, take place at 2:30 pm ET (sites open at 2:00 pm), and the state party expects to have results by 5:00 pm ET. Theses caucuses operate just like the Iowa Dem ones did -- caucus-goers can make a second choice if their original pick doesn’t receive a minimum threshold of support. And the GOP caucuses in the state follow the Iowa GOP model -- they're more like a straw poll and there is no second choice. They begin at noon ET, and results should start coming in at 1:30 pm ET.
*** You spin me right round, baby right round…: In Nevada, both Clinton and Obama are engaged in a furious expectations-setting game. Clinton strategist Mark Penn put out one of the funnier poll memos we’ve seen, which basically argued that the polls might be right or they might be wrong. OK, thanks Mark. Obama's folks are trying to walk back the cockiness they had with Nevada a week ago when they got the Culinary Workers nod. All in all, both campaigns are trying to make their victories meaningful and their losses forgetful. Our man in Nevada, Jon Ralston, thinks Clinton's going to eke it out, because the Culinary union didn't endorse soon enough and therefore wasn't able to voter educate. Ralston is clearly a bit uncomfortable trying to predict, but no one understands Nevada's tribal-like politics better, so we'll take his word for it.
*** The elimination game? As for South Carolina, the question is whether this GOP primary actually eliminates any contenders? We thought so a week ago -- but we aren't so sure now. If McCain, Huckabee, and Thompson are a close 1, 2, 3, what's the incentive for any to get out? The onlyone is if money dries up. For McCain and Thompson, that's a real possibility; for Huckabee, not so much -- he can live off the land a bit easier than the other two. Weather could be a HUGE factor with snow hurting Huckabee. Of course, the good news for Huckabee is that his voters are the most fervent and may not be intimidated by the weather. No one needs this victory more than McCain. He has to prove to skeptics that he can win a GOP primary that is dominated by actual Republicans (of course, the exit polls in New Hampshire did show McCain slightly beating Romney among GOP voters).
*** What happens outside Vegas? So everyone knows the fight in Vegas between the gaming establishment (siding with Clinton) and the Culinary Union (with Obama). But there's been little talk about what's been going on in Nevada outside of Vegas. Will there be an increase in youth turnout? What about women? And Latinos? Will the caucus sites get overwhelmed with new voters like Iowa? Answer these questions and you'll likely be able to figure out who's going to win.
*** Win one for the Gipper: When we first heard Obama utter the praise for Reagan as a change agent, we didn't think much of it. First, it seemed to be done as a historical observation. Second, from experience, we know that Democrats just don't have a hate for Reagan that they do for Bush -- at least 20 years removed from the Gipper’s presidency. Just ask Jim Webb. But both Clinton and Edwards have seized upon Obama’s comments, and on reflection, it's probably something Obama shouldn't have walked into. Let someone else compare him to Reagan; he shouldn't be comparing himself. Ultimately, he probably doesn't want to get into a debate over whether he thinks Reagan was a better inspirational leader than Bill Clinton. (Of course ask yourself this: Was the Democratic Party as strong after Bill left office, as the Republican Party was after Reagan did? Al Gore and George H.W. can answer that.) Obama may think that Reagan was a more transformational leader than Clinton, and historians might agree. But it's not what rank-and-file Democratic primary voters want to hear. Then again, Obama may be re-appealing to indies and soft GOPers again after a week of racial chatter that seemed to do some serious damage to Obama's standing with white voters, particularly in South Carolina.
*** Angry Bill…: Bill Clinton is proving once again to be better at delivering negative messages than positive ones. "Today when my daughter and I were wandering through the hotel, and all these Culinary workers were mobbing us, telling us they didn't care what they'd been told to do, they were gonna caucus for Hillary, there was a representative of the organization trotting along behind us going up to everybody that said that and said, if you aren't gonna vote for our guy we're gonna give you a schedule tomorrow so you can't be there. So, is this the new politics? I haven't seen anything like this in America in 35 years." Bill's getting angrier and angrier. Not to play pop psychologist, but spouses are always more loyal (and therefore more angry about how something's playing out politically) than the candidate.
*** … And a tougher Barack: Don’t miss this Washington Post article: Obama is starting to get more aggressive. Frankly, he has to. The Clintons -- particularly Bill (see above) -- are coming at him harder these days, and for a while Obama wasn’t fighting back. Now he is. Of course, every time he goes on the attack, he has to worry about looking like just another politician.
*** Final SC thoughts: And with one of us on the ground in South Carolina, here are a few final thoughts on the GOP contest there: Thompson’s crowd yesterday of more than 400 anti-immigration, national security hardliners was fervent and he was animated, pacing back and forth on the stage gesturing forcefully and talking tough. He got "Amens" and "that's rights" Perhaps his best performance yet? But one can’t help but feel that had he given his all and had he bought into the process, he could win this thing -- which he probably won’t. Huck, playing guitar again, drew a smaller crowd than Fred (about 250 to 300) at the University of South Carolina in Columbia. And many on the ground are questioning the level of zeal here among evangelicals compared with Iowa. As for McCain, he's going to get the veterans and coastal voters. It's almost as if they’re on a mission. Maybe they even think something's owed to him from 2000. This state will break three ways -- the coast, Lexington County and the upstate. McCain solely campaigned at the coast yesterday, while Huckabee and Thompson campaigned in the same neighborhoods upstate.
*** On the trail: On the Republican side, Huckabee, McCain, and Thompson are all in South Carolina; Giuliani is in Florida; and Romney is in Nevada before traveling to Florida. On the Dem side, Clinton holds a rally in Vegas (at Andre Agassi Prep College) before heading to an evening rally in St. Louis; Edwards also campaigns in St. Louis before heading to Atlanta and Greenville, SC; and Obama does a retail stop in Vegas and holds a caucus party there. *** Update*** It looks like Clinton's Vegas rally will be cancelled.
Countdown to SC Dem primary: 7 days
Countdown to Florida: 10 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 17 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 290 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 367 days
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