Looking at the SC exit polls

Posted: Saturday, January 19, 2008 8:34 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: Republicans

From MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell and Adam Verdugo
It's a tight race in South Carolina, with McCain and Huckabee competing for first place. A couple of observations...

First, we know that the Republican base turned out in large numbers -- more so that eight years ago when George W. Bush won the state. As for independents, they make up about 19% this year. Compare that to 2000 when independents made up 30% of the electorate.

We're seeing a large turnout of evangelicals -- 58%. Huckabee courted this group and today they gave him 41%; however, McCain received 27% and Romney 11%. A sizeable advantage for Huckabee, but not the same that we saw in Iowa.

As in every contest this year, voters in South Carolina want someone who shares their values. Forty-two percent said this; 23% think that experience matters. Among the voters that said experience matters, McCain gets a large majority: 67% to Romney's 24%. Huckabee gets a meager 2%.

Lastly, voters in South Carolina say that John McCain is the best person to beat the Democratic nominee: McCain 41%, Huckabee 22%, Romney 20%.

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Comments

I say congrats to Hillary for the Nevada win! And hope this pace continues for her. She has fought it the hard way and took a lot of flack, especially about her husband campaigning for her. At least she hasn't depended on a talk show host to buy her way. If anyone made it racial I would say that happened when this talk show host joined the political arena when she said this is the first time she had ever endorsed or got into the poitical scene. So "Go Hillary, Bill and Chelsea!" I wish you all the success you deserve. I may have outspoken here but I am in hopes that Mr. Russett, Ticker, and Matthews along with all the other MSNBC "on air" reporters that should not be showing who they support don't hide it too well!

Sue of VA (Sent Saturday, January 19, 2008 9:37 PM)

It's sad that some young voters did not experience the economic prosperity of the Clinton years. Can we even compare it with the George Bush era? Hillary Clinton is who we need in this time of economic crisis -- domestically and globally.

Danilo Deocampo, Los Angeles, CA (Sent Saturday, January 19, 2008 9:55 PM)

Does anyone know if the representatives for SC are "winner take all" or percentage wise. If they are the latter.. does it really matter that McCain won with 3 % difference ?

Patrick (Sent Sunday, January 20, 2008 5:50 AM)

We don't need another 4 years like the last 16 we need a change and that change is Obama. I'm looking for a win in South Carolina and then the rest of then a larger win on Feb 5th. Why was healthcare not changed when the Clinton's were in Office? Will the lobbyist funding accepted by Clinton's campaign pay the way for healthcare reforms.

Take a look for yourself.
http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/select.asp?cycle=2008

Scott Cardwell Somerville MA (Sent Sunday, January 20, 2008 10:10 AM)

Sorry, but the commentary above is simply untrue. And even if it were true, it would be impossible to determine it from the exit polls.

In 2000 over 550,000 voters cast votes in the GOP Primary. In 2008, the figure was 411,000. Even assuming that the greatest decline in turnout came from a drop from 30% to 19% among independents, the fact remains that a drop of 139,000 voters reflected much lighter turnout among Republicans in 2000 than eight years earlier.

Steve Hendricks (Sent Sunday, January 20, 2008 8:04 PM)

I am an immigrant, native of Costa Rica. After few years of being a Permanent resident in the United States I became a Citizen. Part of the process of becoming a Citizen of this great nation included among other things, learning about my rights and responsibilities, one of the things I love the most is for me to have the opportunity to be part of this great democracy and actually have a say on election day. I will vote for the very first time and I am felling really proud, really happy, and excited, that's what I pledge. Some immigrants, just like me, come from places where the ideal of democracy stops short, and many do not have the freedom that we enjoy here.
I wanted to take a minute to invite you to think about our civic duties, as citizens of this great nation, never take for granted your chance to have a say in this democracy, never take for granted the freedom and abundance that we enjoy in this America the beautiful. Many people consider politics a personal matter, so it is, however, it is important to remember the impact your participation or lack of can have on the direction of our country. I extort you to stop and reflect, count your blessings and get out and vote, make this nation proud, just as I am proud of be part of it now.
I work at the front line for families that actually need assistance and services, Children with special needs, I just wanted to say it again, think and vote, get informed, and vote.

I know who I am voting for. John Edwards, he will fight for me, John Edwards represent me the best.

Thank you for your pledge to this great nation that I love and I call home.

Javier

Javier Amador, Hillsborough, NC (Sent Saturday, January 26, 2008 4:09 PM)

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