Tsunami Tuesday
Posted: Monday, January 21, 2008 9:08 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Time handicaps the big day for the GOP and the possibility the four candidates split up the states. Here's their scenario: "Let's imagine for a minute that Rudy Giuliani concentrates his efforts on four winner-take-all-states in his backyard: New York, New Jersey and Connecticut and Delaware. If he won those states and (for discussion's sake) one quarter of California's congressional districts, he would take home about 343 delegates.”
“Meanwhile, it's conceivable that John McCain would direct his efforts largely elsewhere, at Arizona, Colorado, North Dakota, West Virginia — as well as all of California. If he prevailed in those four states and won half of California's CDs, he could take home as many as 242 delegates.”
“Then, there are already signs that Mike Huckabee has his eye on a third set of states on Feb 5: the heartland arc of Arkansas, Georgia, Alabama, Missouri, Oklahoma and Tennessee. If Huckabee won all of those (and they are almost all winner-take-all states), he would take home a surprisingly large 308 delegates. (This assumes Fred Thompson retires from the field between now and then, and Huckabee does poorly in California.)”
“And Mitt Romney has a few cards to play on February 5, too. He ought to do well in Utah, Montana and Massachusetts. If he cornered one fourth of California's CDs as well he could add nearly 150 delegates to his tally. (Romney is ahead of the other Republicans in total delegates as things stand now; at the same time, Massachusetts is a proportional primary, meaning he'd likely not get all the delegates.)"
CALIFORNIA: The L.A. Times looks at the frustration some indie voters have in the Golden State because they cannot vote in the GOP primary.
NEW YORK: “In the city, 2.6 million Democrats and 464,458 Republicans will be eligible to vote, based on city enrollments as of Oct. 31. Statewide, 5.3 million Democrats and 3 million Republicans are eligible. Past New York presidential primaries have been held in March or April, which was too late to make much difference in the outcome of the nominating derbies. This time, New York is part of so-called Super Tuesday, when nearly two dozen states will have nominating contests, including New Jersey and Connecticut.”
