The battle for Florida
Posted: Monday, January 21, 2008 9:10 AM by Domenico Montanaro
The New York Times curtain-raises the Florida primary and notes it is now the first time all of the major candidates are competing in the same state. "The very diversity of the state -- as well as the rules of this particular primary, which is the first one this year open only to registered Republicans -- weighed over the campaigns as aides, meeting in Sunday-morning strategy sessions after Mr. McCain’s victory in South Carolina on Saturday, wrestled with strategic challenges posed by the politically complicated state.”
“Mr. Romney’s advisers said they were fearful that a continuing decline in Mr. Giuliani’s standing would send his previous supporters to Mr. McCain. These advisers argued that Mr. McCain would struggle to win Florida because he could not draw on votes from independents, who supported him in New Hampshire and South Carolina, and where his success was due in no small part to support from independent voters. All of the candidates were considering whether Mr. McCain’s victory in South Carolina would make up for the relative weaker organization he has here compared with Mr. Giuliani and Mr. Romney. So far in 2008, there has been little evidence that a victory in one state gives a candidate a lift going into the next one."
The Washington Post runs a similar piece. "Mike Huckabee, after a loss to McCain in South Carolina, looks to Florida as perhaps a last opportunity to show that his Iowa caucus victory at the start of the nominating season was not a fluke. A second consecutive Southern loss would be especially costly for the underfunded Huckabee." More: "Geographically, Florida is a series of mini-nations. Giuliani hopes to capitalize on retirees from the Northeast who now live in South Florida. Huckabee will look to the Panhandle and its Southern complexion for the votes of religious and social conservatives, but McCain sees significant potential support there as well because of the concentration of military veterans. The main battleground is likely to be the corridor between Tampa-St. Petersburg and Orlando, which all candidates will be plying over the next nine days."
The Miami Herald has a Florida preview and notes: "Florida's Republican vote is like the nation's split. And with so many divided loyalties and frontrunners, this is a race for less than 40 percent of the vote. All the candidates must now chase Florida's key demographic: voters older than 55, who account for about three-quarters of the Republican primary vote."
This is particularly significant for McCain. Check out how well McCain did with voters over 65 in South Carolina compared to how Huckabee did with younger voters. Unlike Dole in '96, McCain appears to be doing well with his peer age group.
