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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Fact Check: Hillary beating them higher?

Posted: Tuesday, January 22, 2008 5:39 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
There have been some fact checks already on last night's debate, but here's another. Last night, Clinton said the following: "...[L]et me just get in here, because there are a lot of polls showing that I'm beating them higher than anybody else.  I don't think that has -- I don't think, frankly, that has much to recommend this far from an election."

That came following John Edwards citing that he's the only one to beat John McCain in a CNN poll, which, by the way, as we pointed out last night, is more than a month old. (It was conducted Dec. 6-9.)

But what is behind Clinton's claim that she's "Beating them higher than anybody else?" "A lot of polls?" What polls are they citing? Here are the most recent reliable ones that rebut that claim.

USA Today/Gallup (Jan. 10-12): Clinton does beat Huckabee 51-45, but loses to McCain 50-47. Obama, though, beats Huckabee by a WIDER margin, 53-43, but does lose to McCain 50-45.

Diageo/Hotline (Jan. 10-12): Obama BEATS McCain 43-42 and Clinton loses 48-45. And Obama down the line beats Huckabee, Romney and Giuliani by wider margins than Clinton.

Reuters/Zogby (Jan. 10-11): McCain beats Clinton 47-42. Clinton beats the other Republicans, BUT Obama beats them by wider margins. And even though McCain beats him also, it's by a narrower margin than he beats Clinton, 45-53.

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Thank you, Domenico.  Clinton has been by far the weakest of the three in most general election polling over the last year - by far.  Democrats need to take the concept of getting a candidate to beat Republicans in the fall more seriously, because the consequences of another neoconservative Bush-like Presidency would be disasterous for the country.  Obama would do the best in a general election.  Edwards would also do very well.  Clinton could win, certainly, but she might not.  Why on earth take the risk?  No one has a reasonable answer to that question.
duh , who did not know she was lieing when she said that . They just lie with such ease i believe people look pass these lies its the biger ones you need to report on . At this point i dont see how anyone can beleive any thing that comes out of the clintons mouth .
Just more truth stretching (lying)from the mouths of the Clintons.  It's no surprise, after all, it is what they do best.

Obama '08
Start from the premise that the Clintons are lying. Everything kind of falls into place if you use that fact as your starting point.
Ask slick Hilly about her husband's administration giving the Navy's oil reserves to Occidental Petroleum, a company that was headed by the Soviet and communist sympathizing Armand Hammer until 1990, NBC.
Come on there are like a zillion polls iut there and I have seen some citing Hillary beating everyone by higher margins than the other two candidates. I f the poll you took 8 minutes ageo doesn't say that, the one you take in 10 will. And it still will not be accurate.
Having Hillary on the ballot in November makes it very likely that we'll be inaugurating a Republican on January 20, 2009.
Can we REALLY trust these polls? How are these polls conducted? Do they just ask anybody the questions? Can we REALLY SERIOUSLY trust polls in this election?

OBAMA FOR REAL CHANGE IN AMERICA
OBAMA 2008
So, Edwards was right. Why is it that GE/NBC/MSNBC/First Read refuse to give Edwards his due.

EDWARDS 08
Thanks for the information...meaningless information. If NH proved anything...it is that these polls are meaningless.
I love all this Anti-Clinton on MSNBC...
Here's the tactic: Come to a debate, throw out a "statistic" or claim that you're more electable, knowing full well you are lying. It's all good, because 95% of the audience won't factcheck you. Politics of the Past 101.
Hahaahahahahaahahahahahaha! thank you MSNBC you just made my day. Obama 08!
A Clinton Lie?  Say it ain't so!!

Next you'll tell me there isn't a Santa Claus.
To be fair, if I were a Democrat, I would vote my heart in this election and worry less about simply winning.  They are all strong candidates (two more than the other) in a strong election position.  These polls mean nothing, contrasting issues and stances is probably a better indicator.
--As I said, John Edwards 'purity' regarding special interests is not something that is a major issue outside the Democratic nomination.  He is also the most liberal, which would not harm him in a general--not as much as the name Clinton though.
--Clinton's point about being the strongest due to national security is more valid.  (In my opinion, that is perceived strength, and Obama's positions are just as good, if not better, but he's not as hawkish as Clinton--and apparently America perceives hawks as experienced for some reason).
--Obama is a more inclusive candidate, and that is his strength per chance to be elected.
Can we REALLY trust these polls? How are these polls conducted? Do they just ask anybody the questions? Can we REALLY SERIOUSLY trust polls in this election?

OBAMA FOR REAL CHANGE IN AMERICA
OBAMA 2008
This wasn't the only lie she said. The mendacity of this campaign is beyond belief, and most voters won't fact check and will take the campaigns at their words unless the media intrudes and calls the campaigns out on these lies.

She knew everything from Rezko to the present votes to the war on Iraq was useless mud said with conviction to imply that there was something there, really. And when the former president gets in on the act, wow, that is a steep hill to climb.

Thank you for posting this. I already knew this but most don't, it'd be nice if the fact checks ran on the news tonight too.
So let's fact check Sen. Obama.  He says he only did about 5 hours of work at his law firm for the Rezko issues.  What he leaves out is his close friendship with Rezko, the fact that Rezko was a major donor to Obama's campaigns and that he raised significant other monies for Obama, and that Obama bought land from him in a sweetheart land deal.  This all while Rezko owned buildings were not providing heat to the poor and minorities and during when Rezko was under investigation.
good journalism like this- fact checking statements about polls showing which candidate is more electable-will help the best candidate win. Better, more honest campaigns depend on more thoughtful reporting.
After last night's debate I wish somebody would do an Edwards match-up with McCain.  It's time for an update.  Ignoring Edwards is a cynical way of making sure he doesn't get considered.
Just more of the same, she tells the story the way she wants.  To heck with the facts and to heck with the truth.  She knows darn well that her supporters don't care, they just want a woman president.
HRC is full of lies, distortions and she is clearly someone that divides the country. I would not vote for her in the November. Without Billy holding her hand, she probably would have lost New Hampshire and possibly Nevada. She has lost Iowa and she will lost in South Carolina.
Lets see the article that fact checks Obama. Anyone? Anyone
Another bold-faced, no-doubt-about-it Clinton lie?  

Just another example of why the Clinton's think THEY own America...  It's government BY the people, FOR the people... notice it's not people for the government?  Order is crucial.  Barack Obama understands this.

Take government back!  Stop the lies!  Barack Obama has my vote.
To me Hellary Clinton is the democratic version of George W. Bush and I will never vote for her no matter how many 3 point plans she has.

Obama 2008
So on fair!!!!!!!!!!!!!

PLEASE DO A FACT CHECK ON REZKO
Another Clinton's lie cut on tape. She is good at lieing and will say anything to get elected.
Delivering lies is easier than delivering results.
How can we trust these polls?
These are the same ones that said Obama would win in New Hampshire and Nevada.
It costs $5,000 per state or $250,000 nationally not counting advertizing to run for President which, rules out the poor as running.  People defend this by saying that it keeps unqualified people from running but, the Constitution only has limits on age and nationality.  In the end, the supposedly pro-poor Democrats don't do anything to eliminate the filing fees.  Period!  Where's the pro-poor in eliminating them from politics?  Unfortunately, fairness demands that I also criticize my fellow Republicans for the same thing as well.  Wrong is wrong.  If poor people can't run for President, then, the whole concept of representative democracy is denied.  Shame on the Democrats and Republicans for this one.  This story is about the Democrats so, let me ask NBC to ask them how pro-poor it is to not eliminate filing fees that keep the poor from running, NBC.
I'm so happy all Obama's sad and bitter supporters can always find refuge on MSNBC.

Now, in no way am I implying that MSNBC always gives BO a MSM free ride, of course not!
Obama lost last night. He needs to check his facts.
Clinton simply can not win in the General Election , she divides the country worse then Bush. She won't get the Indepebdent vote , and Dems will cross over to keep her out of the White House.

No matter how you cut it , Clinton is not ELECTABLE.
She could be refering to polls recent polls in Kansas and Virginia showing her with wider margins than over Republicans than her primary opponents.
As I read Montanaro today, Jan. 22, he claims that the poll Edwards quotes to show he can wins by greater margins, was taken Jan. 6-9.  Yet Montanaro states the poll is more than a month old. Since Montanaro hold Edwards to such high standards in his quotes, Montanaro should stop acting as if he understands numbers himself and retire from the business.
"a CNN poll, which, by the way, as we pointed out last night, is a more than a month old. (It was conducted Jan. 6-9.)"

Maybe you mean Dec. 6-9?
IF HILLBILLY EVER TOLD THE TRUTH, LIGHTING WOULD STRIKE HER, THEY GOT AWAY WITH THAT BEFORE THE INTERNET  BY WAY GOGGLE CLINTONS CHRONICLES.COM  THEY MAKE AL CAPONE LOOK LIKE A SAINT  FREE VIDEO THERE OR YOU CAN READ   YOU WILL FAINT
Hurray!!!!for the Obama supporters. However, it will be a sad day for them after super Tuesday when Hillary beats Obama and Edward. Then the whole will then look closely at the republicans and decide no way they are making that mistake again with the republicans. Go Hillary!!!! The Presidency is yours!!
Remember, folks... the Democratic nominee, he OR she, has to win every state won by Gore, PLUS ONE STATE.  Look at the electoral map.  Nevada will be a Democratic state this year, no question about it.  That's one.  Look at states like Virginia, where Mark Warner will be the Democratic nominee for US Senate, and where they elected a Democrat to the Senate in 2006.  You can yell and scream all you want, but whether it's Hillary or Barack or John Edwards, the Democrats are huge favorites to win this election.  No matter which candidate wins the GOP nomination, HE will be pandering to the right wing as usual, and he'll have to govern that way, too.  And this country has had ENOUGH of pandering to the worst instincts of the far right after the last 7 years.
she also said "...my 35 years of experience in the White House.."

If you don't believe me play the tape.
Highest rated debate on cable news.

Sen. Hillary Clinton on Tuesday said Sen. Barack Obama had become frustrated by his losses in New Hampshire and Nevada, and she also accused her opponent of not backing up his words with action.

Obama responded quickly, saying Clinton was willing to "fudge the truth" in her quest for the Democratic presidential nomination.

http://www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=1612

Video
Like a company fronted by a minority to get a special bid, Hill will front Bill's third term.

And it's kinda creepy to hear him say he likes to see her fight Obams...

Hill's Gone Wild?
I am a Democrat/independent and I will not vote for another Clinton.  I am tired of the slash and burn politics they are so good at but do little for the Country. The Clinton's also bring nothing to the party.  We need someone on the ticket that will increase the democratic majority in Congress. Hillary Clinton unifies the Republican Party, and if we nominate her we deserve to lose the White House.  

GO OBAMA or GO McCain or even GO Guilianni
I hope that all Democrats know that Hillary does worse than Obama in practically all general election polls.  

I know it is hard to remember in the middle of all of this fighting, but Hillary Clinton is quite unelectable.
I checked rankings a few days ago and I checked last night. It is ever changing. I'm not committed to Hillary or Obama but lean towards Clinton. I've never understood the rancor toward her and anyone who tries to convince me that Obama is a lamb will only convice me that they are fools. Is Obama more electable? It is a long way and lots more negative attacks before that will be proven. I'd be happy with eather candidate and don't understand why some reader/responders find denegration of a Democrat candidate helpful for an end-run win.
WOW,
Clinton Honored As 'First Black President' at Black Caucus Dinner
By Marc Morano
CNSNews.com Senior Staff Writer
October 01, 2001

(CNSNews.com) - Former President Bill Clinton was honored as the nation's first black president Saturday at the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) Annual Awards Dinner on in Washington, DC.

The chair of the all-Democratic caucus, Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Tex.), told the crowd that Clinton "took so many initiatives he made us think for a while we had elected the first black president."

Clinton, who has spoken at the caucus every year since his 1992 election, made reference to the September 11th terrorist attacks, saying that black Americans have seen these kinds of religious tactics before.

He described the terrorists' philosophy as "somebody who thinks that only people in their community count and we're not part of their community; that only their reading of the scripture counts and we don't read the way they do. We have been on the other end of that, and we say no, no, no."

Clinton said Arab Muslims and non-Arab Muslims who don't agree with the terrorists are considered apostates who have walked away from the faith. "And those of us who don't happen to fall in those categories are infidels and all of us are fair game."

"We have heard this story before. We want the America we see in this room tonight. We have come a long way from the time when people in our country thought it was all right to kill the innocent."

Clinton told CNSNews.com he was honored to be considered America's "first black president."

"I think it's a function of the work I have done, not just as president, but my whole public life to try to bridge the racial divide and the fact that even when I was a little boy I had friends who were African-American," he explained.

Clinton said that while he misses being president he has "a wonderful life now and I had the time that was allocated to me under the Constitution." He explained, "I have no regrets and I'm trying to go on and play a constructive role as a citizen now and I am quite happy with it."

He added, "I am happy in Harlem and I am honored to be thought of as the first black president."

Actress Vivica A. Fox gushed that President Clinton "spoke so wonderfully and made us African-Americans feel more a part of American society. I miss him so much."

Rep. John Lewis said Clinton "has the rare capacity of connecting with African- Americans. He understands the hopes and dreams and the frustration of African- Americans. We identify with him and he can identify with us."

Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-Conn.) said, "God bless him, he got tonight what he really deserved, which is a thank you."

However Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) said she has no idea what people mean when they talk about Clinton being "the first black president. "I don't know what that means. I don't know what that means," she commented as she walked away.


Obama's Relationship With Alleged Fixer
By MIKE ROBINSON – 4 hours ago

CHICAGO (AP) — Real estate developer and fast-food magnate Antoin "Tony" Rezko spent years pouring thousands of dollars in campaign contributions into Barack Obama's climb from the Illinois legislature to Capitol Hill — and helped him raise tens of thousands more.

But these days Rezko is snared in a nasty political scandal and facing a federal corruption trial that begins next month. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton invoked his name and his "slum landlord business" in a debate with Obama on Monday. A plainly embarrassed Obama has been sending the campaign money to charity in an effort to distance himself from the Chicago businessman, including $41,000 over the weekend.

The Democratic presidential hopeful has also been forced to explain how Rezko got tangled in the purchase of the Obama family home and other ties to Rezko — some of them going back more than 15 years. If federal prosecutors are right, his ties to Rezko may even mean Obama's campaign unwittingly accepted money generated by illegal activities.
just like she was 15 points behing Obama heading into NH, right?  we all saw how that turned out.  the media is so unabashedly pro-obama that it's sickening.  they delight in reporting all the clinton scandals, but won't look into obama's connection w/ rezko with the same fervor.  heaven forbid they tell the truth about their supposed golden boy.
The Clintons don't know how to "take one for the team." The number of Democrats they have alienated grows every day, but they don't care. All they have to do is stop being nasty and divisive, and all would be well. But then they'd see Obama become even more of a threat, and they just can't have that. So, they'd let the Dems burn in hell for a shot at the presidency rather than being good Democrats.
I DARE ANY CLINTON SUPPORTER TO GO TO CLINTONS CHRONICLES.COM====READ  OR WATCH VIDEO===ITS FREE AND COME BACK HERE AND POST ONE THING GOOD.  YOU WILL BE SHOCKED OUT OF YOUR SHOES   THE MEDIA HID THIS FOR YEARS


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