Tsunami Tuesday

Posted: Wednesday, January 23, 2008 9:40 AM by Domenico Montanaro

The Washington Post examines Clinton's post-South Carolina strategy, which has already begun. The campaign is focused on four base Feb. 5 states: Calif., N.Y., N.J. and Arkansas. "The logic seems simple: She represents New York in the Senate, and New Jersey is next door; she was the first lady of Arkansas for a decade; and California will be the biggest prize when 22 states vote on Feb. 5. But in a system that awards delegates by congressional district, with some worth more than others, the calculation is far from straightforward, and Clinton backers fear that the setup could boost Sen. Barack Obama if he fares well in populous corners of key states."

More: "Obama is making similar decisions. Although he has opened offices in all 22 states holding contests on Feb. 5, he is zeroing in on specific voter groups in which he believes he has an inherent advantage over Clinton. In New Jersey, one of his targets is independent voters. In Georgia and Alabama, he is seeking to replicate his South Carolina strategy by targeting African Americans."

Also: "The Obama campaign's heavy emphasis on grass-roots organizing, which served it so well in Iowa, has led it to target the six states that will hold caucuses rather than primaries on Feb. 5. These are typically lightly attended affairs, but they could deliver big returns if Obama can follow his Iowa model of identifying a pool of supporters, including nontraditional participants such as college students and independents, and methodically turning them out.”

CALIFORNIA (D): Clinton leads Obama in a new Field Poll in California 39-27. Edwards has 10%, but 20% are undecided.

NEW JERSEY (D): Clinton leads Obama 49-37. Obama leads by 45 points among black voters, and Clinton leads by 31 points among whites. Edwards has 10%.

NEW JERSEY (R): Oh, how important Florida becomes. With recent polls showing McCain beating Giuliani in New York and Connecticut, McCain is now slightly ahead of Giuliani in New Jersey, 29-26.

And how big a factor could early voting be?

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Comments

To all those who will give Senator Clinton the nomination on Feb 5 (this race is over), just one question: is it really worth it to continue the division, hatred, and disfunction in our politics?

Some have memories of the 90s filled with rainbows and pretty classical music playing in the background. Others remember what it was like whenever the Clintons were forced to answer questions or respond to valid criticisms. The latter memories are becoming clearer by the day as we are reminded by both Bill and Hillary of the depths they will sink to in order to grab power. They care more about their own legacy than about the people they’ve hoodwinked into supporting them.

That the people who are supposedly the most "experienced" and who have the most perspective (those over 50) are handing her the nomination makes those of us in our 30s and 40s scratch our heads. We see them for what they are and understand the damage they will do to their party and to the country. Why the “elders” amongst us can't is a mystery.

Scott (Sent Wednesday, January 23, 2008 9:47 AM)

You guys are determined to try to make this a Black/White race aren't You? Follow the Clinton's lead....Well guess what Hillary be careful what you ask for. If you win ...what are you going to do if that 45% sits it out in Novemeber? right now that is exactly what people are planning to do. You definetly won't get the independant vote.

Grace (Sent Wednesday, January 23, 2008 9:54 AM)

What is that? 22 states vote on Feb. 5th for the Dems. and we get a poll for 2? Polls really don't matter too much anyway. But, Obama looks really good here in Illinois and the Midwest. I also think he has a real chance to sweep the southern states as well. He just needs a strong showing, if not a surprize victory in California, New York, and New Jersey.

Lonny, Peoria, IL (Sent Wednesday, January 23, 2008 9:58 AM)

"Yesterday is yesterday. If we try to recapture it, we will only lose tomorrow." - Bill Clinton

This has been my favorite quote for years. In light of the surging success of Barack Obama, those words are more poignant than ever.

Tomorrow for Obama

..::Eddie::.. Atlanta, GA (Sent Wednesday, January 23, 2008 10:07 AM)

We're needy, greedy, and on our way out. We don't care what's left behind. We are the boomers who mocked the character of our WW2 parents. Besides we have years and years of lies to protect.

Typical Hillary Cult member (Sent Wednesday, January 23, 2008 10:14 AM)

This is Barack Obamas time. We need the unifiying presence of dignity and integrity, vs. polarization and dirty politics.

Montana for Obama '08

John Anderson, Hamilton, MT (Sent Wednesday, January 23, 2008 10:24 AM)

Huh. If Obama can pull within 10 points in California and New Jersey, he won't get trail too much in terms of delegates there. And then pull his share of wins in the southern states.

Granted, Clinton seems to have advantages going into Tsunami Tuesday, but its not beyond the realm for Obama to come out of that day more or less tied in terms of delegates.

Paul Miller, Woodbridge, VA (Sent Wednesday, January 23, 2008 10:43 AM)

The assumption that we are somehow returning to the past is just silly.
First, we have more democrats in office and this election will see more, including in red states.

second, While you want to believe that Bill will be de-facto President, you are missing a point that Hillary is a strong independent woman who will have many other people surrounding her and advising her.

Third, it is not the 90's, sorry we aren't going backward and if you listen to the republicans and the media on this, you are lemmings who will say and do anything in order to believe what you want to believe.

I thought independents prided themselves on independent thought, so far I see no real independence of thought, I see people grasping at talking points to support their own assumptions.
You will all be very sad when reality hits you in the face, the media is not interested in informing you, they are interested in manipulating your thinking, stay awake and question all information you recieve, it is not all truth because it appears here or anywhere on the internet. Suspect everyone in the media, they are not your 'buddys', their job now seems to be to be to stir your emotions with sad and happy stories that have no real validity with how to live and survive in the 21 century.

John Alexander (Sent Wednesday, January 23, 2008 11:12 AM)

Vote China! Vote for a Clinton!

Bill Clinton's U.S. China Relations Act of 2000 and Walmart are a match made in heaven--for the Waltons and the Chinese! Of course, it's no accident that the Clintons secretly made use of their Arkansas and Chinese allies to gain the presidency. With USCRA, the Clintons set our country up for a trade imbalance that made the Waltons even richer. Bottom line: a vote for Clinton is a vote for the People's Republic of China.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_United_States_ campaign_finance_controversy

Will Smith (Sent Wednesday, January 23, 2008 12:23 PM)

Stop making this about race MSNBC!!!!! I just don't get you or the other media outlets. People are sick of hearing and talking about it. You are ruining Obama's campaign the more you discuss it & polarizing dem voters even more. Its sickening. enough with it.

Justin, Los Angeles, Ca (Sent Wednesday, January 23, 2008 12:24 PM)

Yes yes feed us with your hypocritical barbs. Feed us your empty promises. Then kiss my black behind when Hillary is sworn in as president.

Single Black Female (Sent Wednesday, January 23, 2008 12:39 PM)

Grace, you are a idiot.
Clinton supporters are in a better position to run as a Independent candidate than Obama.
Obama is supposed to be the uniter who brings people together.
You are like the proverbial turd on his doorstep.
You intimidate nobody, just make a stink.

BubbaDownSouth (Sent Wednesday, January 23, 2008 12:39 PM)

Democrats, how about trying a candidate who appeals to both women and blacks, who cares about the poor and the middle class, and on top of it all, will not ask you to compromise your pro-life heart. Watch the Republican Debate Thursday night on MSNBC and check out Mike Huckabee.

Terrence, Atlanta, Ga (Sent Wednesday, January 23, 2008 1:52 PM)

Hey Scott from wherever-...its like this: you can't vote for a candidate of color just because he is a candidate of color - this is birthday week of the great MLK and he would tell you that a man of character and a good solid platform- even if he is a white male- is better than that!! obama is good at rallying the people but once you have your wagons in a circle and ducks in a row what then??? do we all stand around with our hands on our hips and look cool??...do we sit down and start some sort of basket weaving???-....this guy is clueless on policy issues and whichever cabinet member or staff member that made the decision to go racial in this election should be fired immediately....these dopes had the media molding the election for them and they are so stupid they couldn't see the forest through the trees and started with this racial and gendre nonsense....not that clinton is any better but at least she'll stop and give you well thought out responses with substance and direction...obama just is a lot of hot air...he's really doing himself and his people a diss-service and people are starting to see it....i'm for edwards all the way but at least i'm realistic about this whole thing!!!

Howard, Sidney Center, NY (Sent Wednesday, January 23, 2008 2:50 PM)

i find it remarkable that the media is missing the biggest Clinton story: Bill is running for his third term. Does anyone doubt that he will be involved in,if not making, every major/minor decision to face his wife? She may claim all the indepence she wants, but minus another Lewinsky incident, there will be a co-presidency. Her claim of experience is largely his, not hers. Anything else is the real fairytale. America needs this huge reality check!

Susan Dunn, Rockford, IL (Sent Wednesday, January 23, 2008 3:10 PM)

More Clintonian Politics -- An addict and his co-dependent spouse manipulating an unsuspecting public with the cooperation of the media who will not examine the tawdry records of the accusers again. Truly pathetic.

This should be a good team in the office - The Clintons. Count this democrat as disgusted in these two -- and out. If she wins, I hope Bloomberg Runs. Anyone who is 35 or younger can look back for the last 20 years and see the same names on the ballot. Now, someone tell me if we're living in an alternating Monarchy or a Democracy. They are pathetic and disgusting. A selfish duo from a selfish generation.

John Graylor charlotte, north carolina (Sent Wednesday, January 23, 2008 3:32 PM)

Susan Dunn... whats your point? So vote democratic anyway ,if you agree with democratic issues.It's called common sense, I believe.

Chris Penn (Sent Wednesday, January 23, 2008 3:44 PM)

Obama is the Democratic candidate of the future. Hillary is the candidate of the past. It's as simple as that. It's time to put the 1990s behind us, folks. The Clintons had their time in office and you know what? We lost the Congress in 1994 and Al Gore lost in 2000 because of the damage to the party caused by Bill and Hillary. It's taken the debacle of past eight years to finally set the stage for taking the party in a new direction. Choosing Hillary will destroy any chance of making this a transformative election. Hillary has no chance of being that figure who brings Independents and Republicans into the fold -- and that's what we need. Believe me, in my part of the country there's nothing like a Clinton on the ballot to turn the Republicans and Independents out in droves for the opposing candidate. Democrats, do the right thing: vote for Barack Obama.

Sean M., Lexington, KY (Sent Wednesday, January 23, 2008 3:54 PM)

I would have liked to have seen all of the breakdowns for the states. Being from NJ, I would have like to have seen all of the different demographic breakdowns. It is too bad that I can't sit down with someone to do this. There is still time to change the minds of people. Who knows who will win. Feb. 5th isn't the end, but it is a big jump.

S.B. Stein E. B. NJ (Sent Wednesday, January 23, 2008 4:07 PM)

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