First thoughts: Battle in Boca
Posted: Thursday, January 24, 2008 10:11 AM by Domenico Montanaro
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
BOCA RATON, Fla. -- The ever-shrinking GOP presidential field (Giuliani, Huckabee, McCain, Paul, and Romney) meets for potentially the last time as a five-way contest tonight. Broadcast live on MSNBC and streamed on msnbc.com from 9:00 pm to 10:30 pm ET, the debate here will be moderated by NBC’s Brian Williams; he will be joined by NBC’s Tim Russert, as well as St. Petersburg Times editor Paul Tash. It’s the only debate before the state’s crucial primary on Tuesday. And there’s a do-or-die feel to it. One tries to avoid the prediction game, particularly for this campaign season, and yet all signs point to this debate being one of the most contentious of the cycle for the GOP. Why? If the candidates don't stop McCain now, they never will.
*** McCain with the mo’: There's still no front-runner in the GOP contest, but there is a candidate in the “momentum slot.” Every one in the field -- even a candidate who just dropped out -- has spent time here. It's kind of like being in third place in a NASCAR race: You've got plenty of opportunity to take the lead, and can even do it for a lap or two, but the ideal is to sit back and wait for the opportunity to draft. McCain is in this “momentum slot,” just one win away from truly becoming the front-runner. And don't think Romney and Giuliani don't know this. Both campaigns will privately admit that neither will be the nominee without winning Florida. Romney could win outright here, setting up a long-term delegate showdown with McCain; he’d likely have the upper hand in this case thanks to his bottomless pockets. If Giuliani wins, the race will be muddied up even longer.
*** Desperation is in the air: As a result, look for a number of conservative shots to be taken at McCain in the debate. Romney will try to reinforce the criticism that, at the end of the day, McCain won't always do what's in the best interest of the party. Of course, that criticism from some on the right is what makes McCain so potentially electable. He may appeal to independents in the general election. But it makes for a messy primary fight. As for Rudy, he has no choice but to be aggressive in the debate. His chances for the Republican nomination are dropping like a rock. He needs a Florida win just to stay in the game and muddy up the race enough to give himself a shot. A Giuliani win puts the GOP race back to square one with 3 1/2 candidates left vying for the actual nomination -- the half being Huckabee. The stakes have never been higher. Desperation is in the air. All of the candidates desperately need a win in Florida, and all of them need to make a mark tonight.
*** What happens if Rudy finishes third? By the way, a Miami Herald poll has Rudy in third. It has McCain leading Romney, 25%-23%, with Giuliani and Huck tied at 15%. So if Rudy finishes a distant third, would he really keep going and risk the embarrassment of losing his home state on February 5? A new Mason-Dixon Florida poll comes out at noon today, and look for it here and on MSNBC.
*** Speaking of polls…: A new L.A. Times/Bloomberg survey finds Clinton holding a solid (yet dwindling) lead nationally over Obama, 42%-33%. "John Edwards of North Carolina drew the support of 11% of Democratic respondents. When asked for whom they would vote if their first choice dropped out, slightly more Edwards voters leaned toward Clinton than toward Obama, the poll found.” More: In the GOP contest, the survey found that 22% of likely Republican voters preferred McCain, 18% backed Huckabee and about the same proportion -- 17% -- chose Romney. Because of the poll's margin of error, the differences among these three candidates are not statistically meaningful." A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll comes out at 6:30 pm ET on NBC Nightly News and msnbc.com.
*** Barack returns fire: After the Clinton campaign, in a South Carolina radio ad, attacked Obama over his comments on Ronald Reagan, Obama has now responded with his own radio ad -- and it uses the narrative that the GOP is gearing up to deploy in a general election if Clinton becomes the nominee. “Hillary Clinton will say anything to get elected,” the ad says. Our question: By responding - even with a counterpunch - does Obama risk being portrayed as just another politician? Then again, Obama risks a lot more by not responding. Of course, this is just a radio spat - we're still waiting for the first real meaningful TV negative ad exchange... We're guessing we won't see that until after Feb. 5... If the race gets fought in a smaller group of states, say Ohio and Texas?
*** Back to Carolina: After spending the past couple of days in February 5 states, Clinton returns to South Carolina, giving a speech later this morning on the economy in Greenville. Lost in the furious back-and-forths overs Reagan, Rezko, and the rest of Monday’s debate was Clinton’s decision to bypass the state for two days -- and in the process, concede (ever so slightly) the first contest with a sizable African-American population. Even in those days when it looked like she might lose New Hampshire, and thus needed to focus on February 5, few thought she’d skip South Carolina due to the importance of the African-American vote in a general election. Of course, she’s back in the state, and Bill picked up the slack for her while she was gone. But ask yourself this: How would Iowans have received the news that three precious days before the caucuses, a candidate had decided to campaign in New Hampshire instead?
*** On the trail: Before tonight’s debate, Giuliani holds a rally in Boca Raton before the debate (1:00 pm ET), as does Romney (6:45 pm ET). On the Dem side, Edwards and Obama also are in South Carolina: Edwards hits Greenwood and Seneca, while Obama visits Kingstree, Beaufort, and North Charleston. And Michelle is in Cheraw, Columbia, and Charleston.
Countdown to SC Dem primary: 2 days
Countdown to Florida: 5 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 12 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 285 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 362 days
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