ABOUT FIRST READ

First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Why Obama won

Posted: Saturday, January 26, 2008 8:43 PM by Mark Murray

From MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell and Adam Verdugo
First, it was a landslide among black voters. Obama received about 80% of the African American vote. The size of his vote was nearly uniform across every demographic group among blacks, as well as nearly every issue or opinion question in the poll: old, young, male, female, well educated, poorly educated -- all of them broke in pretty much the same way.

As for the white vote, Obama did not win the majority but neither did either of his two rivals. In fact, while Clinton got 36% of the white vote -- it really was pretty close to a three-way split; Edwards got 40% and Obama 24%.

An MSNBC/McClatchy poll released on Thursday showed Obama's support among white voters to be 10%. So consider his showing tonight a big improvement.

In other early voting contests, women have been one of the keys to a candidate's victory. In South Carolina, the question was whether Clinton could score well with black women.  Obama bested Clinton in this category.

The age of the voters was also a factor for Obama, particularly in the white vote he attracted. Take a look at the breakdown in age groups among White voters: 52% of those ages 18-29, 25% of those 30-44, 23% of those 45-59, and 15% of those 60 and over.

When we asked voters which one candidate quality mattered most in their voting decision, over half said the ability to bring about change -- 54%. Three out of four voters who said this broke for Obama. Other numbers: 14% said experience and only 6% said electability.

Lastly, we asked which candidate would be most likely to unite the country. Obama beat Clinton 2-to-1 on that question.

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Oy, FirstRead! Caroline Kennedy just endorsed Barack Obama. You should put this up

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/27/opinion/27kennedy.html?_r=1&ref=opinion&oref=login
The racial breakdown seems fairly insignificant after a win like this one.
Obama won becuz ppl saw thru the Clinton vicious attax. They played dirty and voters just are not in the mood for that crap this time around. Especially insulting was them taking the cheap shots then turning around and crying that Obama was picking on them. Ludicris. Thankfully, SC saw thru that as will many other voters.
Voters are tired of the Clinton's good cop/bad cop routine.
Now Hilllary is crying REAL tears.

They need to put a muzzle on Bill
i think its not reasonable to project the white vote in a state with a srong history of segregation as a national barometer, especially its older citizens, as a   voting pattern. the caucasion vote was  no problem for him in iowa,new hampshire or nevada. be careful in over stating impact of south carolina
Wow, first read! you dare to say that 36 equals to 24, you really cross the line. i guess you gonna be stuck with angry obama fans after february 5th. because the rest of the country saw how biased you are.
unfortunately, SC has showed the rest of the nation that reverse-racism is alive and well.
I hope BILL stays and campaigns real hard for Hellary......that will put Obama in first place if nothing elses does.........
I hope BILL stays and campaigns real hard for Hellary......that will put Obama in first place if nothing elses does.........
Actions speak louder than words.  After years of working to improve everyday life for people in this country, particularly Blacks, it's unspeakable that some Blacks are attempting to throw the Clinton's under the bus for comments that were made and accordingly spun, as always happens in politics.  No one should be judged for anything other than the lives they live.  Anyone can say anything, but living your life the right way should be how you are judged in the end.  MLK voiced this time and time again.  If we want to turn the white Democractic voters off, then Black voters should continue complaining about how the Clinton's haven't done anything for the Black community and how they are supposedly anti-Black.  John Lewis, of all people, has endorsed Hillary Clinton.  His role in the civil rights movement is as fundamental as MLK.  Would he support someone who he didn't think was supporting the Black movement?  He has dedicated his life to improving conditions for the Black community.  Before you get on the band wagon, maybe you should take a step back and get a perspective.
This is a wonderful night in American politics, we finally have an electorate willing to call them the way they see them!! Barack is  truly THE ONE.Let's keep hammering at Hillary and Bill.
How exactly are 40%, 36%, and 24% considered a three-way split?  Good spin there on that one!

The most interesting things out of the exit poll data are that the majority said they wanted change, which is essentially all Obama says.  The other one that sticks out is the racial breakdown.  He won over 80% of black voters, who happened to be around 55% compared to about 45% of white voters (looked at the exit poll breakdown sheet).  

I hate to say it, but it is true that people of different "ethnic" groups tend to stick together and back their own.  I'm not trying to make some bigotted comment, but data supports my statement.  

I am not the least bit surprised that he won South Carlonia.  This has been expected for a long time.  

The way the results have broken down, essentially Obama took the black vote and Clinton and Edwards split the white vote.  

Now the question is whether or not it is going to mean anything for the upcoming states in different parts of the country and different concerns.  It seems that every state so far has had a different "most important" issue that motivated their voting choices.  Eventually it all comes down to what is most important to the voters when their turn comes.  

P.S.  Beatrice, this isn't your cell phone.  Learn how to spell out the words!
J,
You're disappointed because your candidate got rocked tonight but you don't have to throw around the same race-baiting as your candidate's campaign has the past 2 weeks.  To borrow a quote from your candidate's husband:  shame on you.
Hey MSNBC, when are you going to start asking the tough questions of Obama?  This lopsided coverage is really frustrating me.  As an independent, I feel like Obama is being shoved down my throat.  It's like everyone is scared silly of saying anything negative about him...  WHY???  When Obama attacks, his being "smart".. when Clinton attacks or defends, she's being "vicious".  Give me a break, anyone with a brain knows that both are playing politics...  They HAVE TO because that what the media demands.  I feel like the media is running for office this year because the spin in your stories dwarfs anything from the candidates..  Now, please get back to real non-biased journalism and leave your opinions to yourself!!!
White, black, latino, indian, asian, women, men, young, middle age, elderly, poor, middle class, upper class, liberal, moderate, conservative, Democratic, Republican, Independent, as well as everybody else, PLEASE JOIN US IN CHANGING THIS COUNTRY!  YOU HAVE AN OPEN INVITATION!!

Obama '08
John Lewis and the rest of the "civil rights establishment", and the political hacks have been coopted and paid off. They're doing this for their own political gain (and other kinds of 'gain') as well as their own relevance.

Who will need the Congressional Black Caucus et al with a President Obama?

wake up people!
24% (one-fourth) is close to one-third? No wonder US ranks last among developed nations in math!
The Clinton hate and slime machine didn't work in SC, thank goodness.

Way to go Obama!
Andy, I agree. Obama by 28. Wow.
This victory was not about race!  This was a broad victory across every demographic except the old party machinery.  Obama represents the best hope for America.
Bogey,

Perhaps if you were a righteous person yourself, you would be able to recognize a righteous person.  Maybe you should crack open a book every now and then and educate yourself a little bit about the supposed deviance of the "Civil Rights Establishment".  Seriously, get a clue.
Voters are tired of the Clinton's good cop/bad cop routine.

Shawn P., FLorence, OR

_______


Which one is the good cop again?
I don't get the Obama thing.  I listened to all of the Democrats speeches.  Obama talks a good line, but then I looked at his record and then I do not get it.  He was against the war but has funded it each time it was addressed.  If someone is against the war then why would they vote to fund it.  Was this just politically correct.  If the Americans thought there was a threat of nuclear weapons in the hands of Saddam then why would someone be against the war.  Saddam would not hesitate to use nuclear weapons against us or our allies.  That concerns me that Obama was against this war based on the threat by the Bush Administration and just after 9-11.  Why wouldn't he support it.  Obama has a healthcare package that leaves out millions.  Does this mean that he will carry insurance for the children, but not their mothers that care for them.  Obama says he is for single payor for health care, then he says he is not for it. He doesn't even vote on issues that may affect him politically.  Exactly what is Obama for or is it just what sounds good to the people that surround him at that time.  It is easy to criticise another for a vote but others at least had the guts to make a decision one way or another.  Is this the change that people want?  Do we want a leader to run from controversy.  To do what is politically safe.  I just do not get it.  There are far more candidates that are tougher and have more guts than Obama, that are not afraid to make a decision that just may be unpopular but the right decision.    
People who cite these polls and quibble about whether 24% and 36% are equal should note that not everyone is asked to participate. So, really, they have ABSOLUTELY no idea what the real percentages are. You don't enter your race with your vote in the booth.
The Clintons have a lot of skeletons in the closet. There are a number of us out here who know this. Hillary is a socialist at the very least. She studied under the Calif. Director of the American Communist Party. Billy committed treason during his administration and many of us military veterans know this is a fact! The Clintons will now begin to feel the backlash of their previous actions and dirty politics. American citizens are fed up with business as usual in Washington! THIS IS THE NEW AMERICAN REVOLUTION.
J
How is this reverse-racism? Whites have been voting for whites for years. Blacks have been voting for whites for years. Now, when a black man has a message that speaks to all people, including his own, it is some how reverse-racism. Please? Give me a break!

Obama won, plain and simple. You can't say reverse-racism had anything to do with that.
The stench of sour grapes is so nauseous!!

O-BA-MA! O-BA-MA!!
******************************************************

Congratulations to Barack Obama.  

He successfully turned the Presidental Race in to a BLACK and WHITE thing.  He got 24% of the white vote while the other 76% went to the white candidates.


SHAME ON BARACK.  

Our country is now more divided than it was a month ago.


And make no mistake, it was BARACK  and his lovely wife Michelle who turned it in to black vs. white.


Again, Shame, shame, shame on any black or 1/2 black man or white man who would do that.  


As Pat Buchanan says...this will come back to bite Obama.
Tiffany,

What you don't mention is that Hillary only won two demographics, white women and those 65 years and older.  Obama won every other demographic.  So, don't you dare try to play this one down!

Obama '08
Obama won by 99% of the black vote because Obama aided by the press juganauts such as barking Joe Scarborough, cunning Chris Mattews racially defined this primary way back in New Hampshire.He won because you press people obviously successfully wrapped Bill into the race even when he honestly was doing what spouses do in campaigns. I wonder how many times the criticisms unleashed unfairly on the Clintons were directed to Laura Bush who from time to time came out to campaign on behalf George Bush. Since when did it,become unusual for a spouse to campaign for a spouse? Michell Obama several months ago boasted that it shall not come to pass that S.C. a predominately black state will not carry her husband to victory. And so, she reached out to Oprah who reminded them blacks there that their son was coming home to roost. She Michell went campaigning except that the national media refused to show us the excepts of her speeches while the Clintons were continuosly kept under intense laser. So far, we are yet to hear specifics from Obama, yet each time you give him a pass mark. Shame on you press, you are systematically failing the millions of people in this nation who have real problems that require real solutions. They are  listening each day and hoping to hear specific solutions, rather you give them oration and play politics with their problems, their pain and the future of their children. We hope you all will sleep well each day you wake up and twist and tell blatant lies against people who honestly you cannot say or understand why you do so. Therefore, you republican attack machines and truth sqwart of Obama, pop your champaigns for again we all can see clearly what your mission is-personal mission rather they collective solutions. Obama has systematically introduce elements that threaten the live and survival of the democratic party. He has been playing to the drum beats of republican attack machines whose motive is essentially to create turmoil in the democratic party while trying desperately to elevate their struggling party members.He criticizes the status quo,same group that led him by the hand to the national lime light.How easy it is for us to play the politics of convenience. It makes you wonder the real motives behind peoples actions. Stop playing politics with our pain and our problems. They are real and must be sooth and solved by more than oration!
God bless America and save her from all those who do not truly have the interest to salvage her children
I hope you (republican attack machines or shall we say press bosses(Chuck etc)in journalistic coat) will be fair and honest to yourselves and post this piece because it is truly from an african american woman who is very very fair and unbiased.    
MSNBC should not be proud of it's network tonight.


People wake up!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


MSNBC is NOT for Barack Obama.  They are just trying to knock Hillary off.


Just wait until Barack wins and then is pit against the REPUBLICAN.


Poor BO.  Poor BO.


MSNBC owners and news media talking heads and pundits are multimillionaires who are Republican to the core with tax breaks for the rich.  

They will turn on poor BO so quick that his head will be spinning faster than in a horror flick.

Poor Barack.  He and his supporters are being fooled.
You'd think they would be smarter than that...but that's what happens when you drink your own Kool-aid!


Poor BO
Kaye, dearest,
    Hillary had the class to congratulate Obama on his win. He on the other hand never said one word to her after NV and left the state without even speaking to his workers and campaigners.  Not very classy I'd say.

And please, dear, get your fact straight before you spew about Hillary.

Tell all of us where your source is that Hillary is crying about her loss.  Exactly which station or web site is it on?  We want to see the video.

Of course there are none because Hillary did not cry over this loss.  She showed class that BO will never have...she congratulated him on his win.  

Hillary is NOT about ego as BO is.

AS IF WE DIDN'T KNOW EXACTLY WHAT WAS COMING.  CLINTON AND EDWARDS SPLITTING THE WHITE VOTE AND O'BAMA HAD 80% OF THE BLACK.  If a few less blacks had voted for O'bama, I might have repected this vote in SC.  As it is, they obviously let the obviously slanted media make race a much bigger message than it should have been and forgot all about the truth.  Nice loyalty to two people who have worked all their lives on behalf of us minorities.  
AND hmmmm 40% AND 36% TO 24%.  WHAT WORLD DO YOU LIVE IN THAT 24% IS EVEN "CLOSE" TO 40%?  Nice, Nora.  You guys at MSNBC are starting to sound way too much like "FOX noise" where the Clinton's are concerned.  You're helping the democrats lose, once again, by spliting our party.  How about some fair and impartial reporting a bit more often.  Matthews comes close sometimes, but the rest of you are pitifully obvious in your bias.  Joe needs to get the "neither side owns me" off his intro, because he can't help himself and has been spouting the Republican tripe and "Clinton machine" rhetoric until it's painfully obvious which side owns him.
I used to love MSNBC when they at least came close to balancing both sides fairly.  I am a centerist, so this is appealing to me, but I will soon be tuning out entirely if this sickeningly slanted reporting continues.  
I disagree with Tiffany's comment above.  Sure 1 out of 3 would be a complete tie, but I am impressed that Obama received 1 out of every 4 white votes.  1 out of 3 ... 1 out of 4 is for all intents and purposes the same thing.  Remember this is a sample and there would be a margin of error.  He also received more than 50% of the white vote less than 30.  That is truly impressive.  The only place Obama had a poor showing is with whites over 60.

I do not consider voting for the best candidate as reverse racism.  That is just the slander that the Clinton camp is trying to drum up to downplay Obama's win in SC.  Obama did not suffer this bad a defeat in New Hampshire or in Nevada.  They were much closer.

Also, Hillary keeps claiming 35 years of experience on her stump speech.  National Public Radio had a piece that clearly shows that she has nowhere near the experience she claims.  She was the wife of a president.  Not the president. She was not a policy maker.  Her terms as senator certainly are legitimate.   So to me she does not have that much more experience than Obama.  Also, Obama is older than when Bill Clinton ran in 1992.  So Obama is not too young either.


hate to tell you, but even 80% of blacks will never win nationally against 76% of whites and 75% of latinos (who alone outclipse the black vote).  Sad that is has come down to that, folks. But O'bama did inject race just as much or more than the Clintons.  He needed to win SC, and he did, but he lost a lot more.  
I am with you Adam of St. Louis. I am an independent too. MSNBC is blatantly pro-Obama that they appear to be an advertising agent for him. Stick to real journalism MSNBC! so we the people, who want to look at what this country is facing and choose the right person for the office of President can judge appropriately on who brings the right skills fit for that office, not who MSNBC want to shove down our throats.
Obama won because HEATH LEDGER wasn't as cute as ANDY GIBB.
I am not the least bit surprised that he won South Carlonia.  This has been expected for a long time.

Tiffany Portland, Oregon (Sent Saturday, January 26, 2008 9:24 PM

Yes Tiffany, this 50 point turnaround was expected. LMAO. Hillary was ahead over 20 point's only a month ago. She got her ASS handed to her today in SC. The Clinton's pissed off AA's by the tune of 150,000 coming out to vote Against her & Bill. Democrat's Can't Win without this Key constituency. The Clinton's have lost it for the Democrat's if somehow she is the nominee.Bank On IT!!!

Barack Obama for President!!!!!!!!!!

MSNBC --> You need to wake up and stop publishing results of solely your own poll, which has quite erroneous results.  For the past 3 days we've been subjected to nothing but a bunch of BS about how Obama is Jesse Jackson redux, while at the exact same time, there were other polls predicting tonight's result (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_SC_Release_012508.pdf).  It truly calls into question whether you wish to promote your own polls or you want actual, scientific analysis.
MUST BE A MOLE IN GAY COMMUNITY-that continues to go unseen at election time.

SHUT THE HECK UP-or are your folks TRULY as STUPID as AIDS?
BOOMERS who vote-won't-for John McCain.

IT'S HANDSOME, INTELLIGENT, ARTICULATE-EXPERIENCED-MITT ROMNEY.

-with 5 aborted kids-
Bill Clinton still trying to play the race card, comparing Obama to Jesse Jackson.  I think the voters are sick of Bills tactics.  I heard that he DOES NOT plan to stop his negative campaigning.  He will lose the election for Hillary, Fine with me, he is just making a fool of himself and loosing the respect of many Democrats.
Obama didn't concede NV because he won the delegates...13 to 12. Why do so many out there still so obtuse?

Yes, 40% is not equal to 24% but 24% is more than the predicted 10%. What it shows is that Obama was able to get some white voters...
I find it curious, actually to be more direct, disconcerting, that every response except one, has talked about the issue of "THE BLACK VOTE..."  On one hand some claim that Obama is playing the race card, but my impression coming away from this discussion is that Clinton supporters are the ones spinning race.  I'm technically undecided, and I originally had no qualms with the Clintons, but after the campaign and their supporters are even now refusing to let it go, I start to feel that I can't in good conscience vote for people that believe this way.  It's un-Christian (my personal moral compass), and though I am one measly vote, I can't be the only one.
A BIRACIAL-MALE PRESIDENT is certainly an EVENTUALITY.

BUT ROMNEY is not the necessary stiff.
Okay, Tiffany here's some spelling for you, stop being so snarky just because your candidate got her butt kicked. And you might want stop emulating your idol by personally insulting someone cuz you dont like what they say. Maybe you can get Slick Willy to come on here and wag his finger.
Love the Clinton operatives on here trying to do Hillary's dirty work. Trying to "shame" MSNBC - LMAO, so transparent. If you dont like MSNBC go somewhere else OOps! Guess you are at politicaltickler and politico harping on the same stale subject. WAAHHH!!, get a Kleenex, but sadly the tears wont work a second time for Hillary.
George, I dont fight with fellow posters - hope that doesnt hurt your feelings. My post was IRONIC, get it? A little sarcasm if you will.
I am amazed as to how some of you are concluding what is needed in this country.  Do you really understand that it is that Obama is suggesting to you?  Have you honestly read his thoughts about what he wants to do for this country?  Obama leans further to the left than Hillary.  If this is 'truly' what you want then fine vote for it.  But I don't ask this simply because I have a pet squabble with the left.  There is a fundamental and philosophical difference between what he, Obama, is suggesting for this country and what this country was founded on.  Personal achievement and self reliance are things that are fundamental to the growth of any individual as well as a country as a whole.  The 'left' that I am talking about is changing the Government to a form that is to take more and more care of the individual so that the 'individual' will not be able to achieve as well as he/she once was.  Why do you want this?  I am so confused as to how anyone could possibly want a Socialistic society such as the one that is being promoted, but not properly defined, by Obama.  I don't wish to have the Government taking away my ability to succeed or fail or to my ability to take care of myself.  They are only there to protect my right as a citizen to succeed or fail and to 'pursue my happiness' not generate it.  The mentality of the left right now is truly devisive by its own nature.  We aren't Americans any more we are some hyphenated type of an American each looking for their own Aristocentric advances and handouts.  Honestly, have you truly looked into and thought about what it is that you are validating with your vote!  If you have, well, what can I say?  If you win you win.  However, I believe that we are truly at a crossroads and the direction that we take will have extreme consequences.  Your decision isn't just about having a 'woman' or a 'black' president.  It's not that superficial . . . it's deeper and requires that you utilize your own knowledge of what America 'once' stood for and promoted versus what it is to become.  Obama isn't even close in political philosophy to JFK.  JFK, by todays standards, would probably not be a Democrat by philosophy.  The Democratic party has shifted to the left much further than it was in JFK's day.  Even the Republican party is further left than it was in the days of JFK.  There are some things that are 'absolute' in life.  You 'should' have the right to pursue happiness in the way that you choose as long as you are not affecting others or disallowing others to do the same.  We don't have freedom of speech anymore.  Political correctness is dividing us further and further and it was seen when the nonsense was going on between Obama and Hillary these past couple of weeks.  I don't believe that 'either' of them was trying to be racist but there are those amongst us, (the media and some extremists on either side), that have either a desire to see a fight or just simply have a chip on their shoulder and are ready for someone to knock it off!  America, what is it that you 'really' believe in?  Are you voting for a woman because she is a woman?  Are you voting for a black man because hs is a black man?  Are you voting for a white man because he is a white man?  Are you really listening to what is being said and not allowing the 'talking heads' on TV to influence you due to their polling or the fact that they are political experts?  Just what exactly 'is' a political expert anyway?  Does he/she know what 'you' or 'I' really think?  Or is he/she just someone who is trying to sway you to their agenda . . . kind of like a used car salesman!  America, who are you?  I haven't seen or felt you in a very long time!!!  Where is your depth and 'belief in ourselves' as a truly wonderful and great nation who had been put together and organized by some of the most incredible documents to have ever been conceived and put together, i.e. the Bill of Rights!  'You' have the right to vote as 'you' wish and you should no matter what anyone says, however, you also have a responsibility to the rest of us to vote with integrity and a reasonable amount of knowledge and pride in this nation.  Not simply because someone has the right sex, color, religion, or haircut!  Please look at what these people are representing and promoting and honestly compare it to what you as an American believe and what we have and are to represent in the future for ourselves and our kids!
Its all in the numbers

Yes it is all in the numbers and the Democrats will have difficuly beating the Republicans without African American support. If the Clintons continue to deal in dirty politics, African Americans may just decide to sit it out if "they" are nominated.


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