First thoughts: Obama's big win
Posted: Sunday, January 27, 2008 10:28 AM by Mark Murray
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
COLUMBIA, SC/TAMPA, FL -- According to the AP, it was a rout. Per Fournier, it was a landslide. George Bush might have referred to it as a “thumping.” Whatever you want to call it, Obama’s victory last night in South Carolina was by the biggest margin we’ve seen so far in a contested race this primary season. Obama did it by winning about 80% of the African-American vote, as well as about a quarter of the white vote. Sure, his share of the white vote there dropped some 10-plus points compared to other states. But remember, this is the South, and the white vote was always going to be a little more difficult for Obama to capture southern whites. Perhaps the most telling stat in the exit polls highlights the southern challenge for Obama: White voters over 60 supported Obama at a clip of less than 20%, while their children -- white voters under 30 -- supported Obama at just over a 50% clip. If anything, Obama’s victory should calm the campaign down after a tough week; the size was greater than either camp expected. It also should help with rounding up another round of endorsements. It's interesting, by the way, how easily Obama and McCain are picking up endorsements after New Hampshire, but how difficult Clinton and Romney have had securing the big nods. Will Obama have an eyebrow-raising nod nearly every day before February 5? Don't be surprised. Caroline Kennedy dominates today, and there's also California Rep. Xavier Becerra (D). Who's next?
*** Is it now all about Bill? The magnitude and size of Obama's South Carolina victory is likely to shift a negative focus on Bill Clinton's role in the campaign. Until yesterday, his role at been panned in the media -- but seen as successful in New Hampshire and Nevada. That was not the case yesterday. Camp Clinton is no doubt pondering some shift in Bill's role. Frankly, last night was strange when the first Clinton the world heard from last night on camera was Bill (from Missouri) and not Hill (from Tennessee). For a candidacy that swears is only about Hillary, having Bill be the first Clinton the public hears from sent the wrong signal.
*** On to February 5: With Clinton and Obama splitting the first four contests, we head into Tsunami Tuesday in a Democratic nominating race that seems entirely up for grabs. From our vantage point, these are Clinton’s base states: CA, NY, NJ, AR, MA, and OK. Obama’s are: AK, ID, KS, MN, ND, GA, AL, and IL. The toss-ups appear to be: AZ, CT, CO, DE, MO, NM, TN, and UT. Among those toss-ups, AZ and CT might lean towards Clinton, since they’re closed to independents, and TN -- where Clinton is today -- probably leans her way, too. Of course, Obama will make plays in CA, MA, and NJ, and sources tell us that he is going up with ads in Philly (NJ) and New York City (NY, NJ, CT). Also, Edwards will go heavily after OK and TN.
*** The Florida exhibition game: But what about Florida? Last night, in her concession statement, Clinton said, “We now turn our attention to the millions of Americans who will make their voices heard in Florida and the 22 states as well as American Samoa who will vote on February 5th.” Yet because Florida moved up its primary before February 5, the DNC stripped the state of all of its delegates, rendering the contest nothing more than a beauty contest or an exhibition game. So as we now head into the playoffs, Team Clinton believes that an upcoming exhibition game should matter. As the Obama campaign shot back in a statement yesterday afternoon, “It should not be surprising given recent events that the Clinton campaign would in one breath say the election is about winning delegates and then tout their success in states that don’t award any delegates in the next breath… If the Clinton campaign's southern strength rests on the outcome in a state where they're the only ones competing, that should give Democrats deep pause.”
*** Clinton-Obama isn’t the only contentious race going on: McCain vs. Romney is heating up big time. McCain's getting endorsements galore -- the Charlie Crist pick, coupled with Mel Martinez, gives McCain's folks every chance they can to make up whatever ground they think they need against Romney. It's a battle of two coalitions: Romney's putting together younger conservatives, talk-radio conservatives, and social conservative activists; McCain's got veterans, Cubans, moderates, and the 65+ crowd. Both are winning formulas in a multi-candidate primary. More importantly, both Romney and McCain have opponents taking a piece of their base coalition: Giuliani's hurting McCain with Cubans and moderates; Huckabee is hurting Romney with social conservatives. The big question is: Who needs Florida more? Probably Romney. A McCain victory in Florida may mean he's unstoppable; a Romney victory probably won't do enough to stop McCain from getting his share of delegates on February 5, since there's a chunk in the Northeast (NY, NJ, DE and CT) that are winner-take-all and likely to be hard for Romney to wrestle away. By the way, the Crist endorsement is gutsy politics for the Florida governor. If McCain wins, Crist becomes the single-most important kingmaker endorsement in the GOP primary. If McCain loses, it will cause Crist internal problems for some time, as he won't be the vaunted state party leader his approval ratings seem to hint at. By the way, Joe Lieberman goes back to Florida today to campaign for McCain...
*** On the trail: Clinton attends worship services in Memphis, TN; Edwards stumps in Dublin, GA; Giuliani is in Florida, where he speaks at a Boca Raton synagogue and then campaigns in Port St. Lucie, Vero Beach, and Cocoa Beach; Huckabee, also in Florida, speaks at First Baptist Orlando (closed to the press), then attends a Fair Tax rally in Jacksonville, and then delivers evening remarks at East Brent Baptist Church in Pensacola; McCain, in the Sunshine State campaigns in Polk City, Lake Lady, and Orlando; Obama makes remarks at Harvest Cathedral in Macon, GA and then heads to Birmingham, AL; and Romney, in Florida, attends fundraisers in Palm Beach and Boca Raton.
Countdown to Florida: 2 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 9 days
Countdown to Chesapeake Tuesday: 16 days
Countdown to Ohio and Texas: 37 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 282 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 359 days
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