ABOUT FIRST READ

First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



First thoughts: Obama's big win

Posted: Sunday, January 27, 2008 10:28 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under:

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
COLUMBIA, SC/TAMPA, FL -- According to the AP, it was a rout. Per Fournier, it was a landslide. George Bush might have referred to it as a “thumping.” Whatever you want to call it, Obama’s victory last night in South Carolina was by the biggest margin we’ve seen so far in a contested race this primary season. Obama did it by winning about 80% of the African-American vote, as well as about a quarter of the white vote. Sure, his share of the white vote there dropped some 10-plus points compared to other states. But remember, this is the South, and the white vote was always going to be a little more difficult for Obama to capture southern whites. Perhaps the most telling stat in the exit polls highlights the southern challenge for Obama: White voters over 60 supported Obama at a clip of less than 20%, while their children -- white voters under 30 -- supported Obama at just over a 50% clip. If anything, Obama’s victory should calm the campaign down after a tough week; the size was greater than either camp expected. It also should help with rounding up another round of endorsements. It's interesting, by the way, how easily Obama and McCain are picking up endorsements after New Hampshire, but how difficult Clinton and Romney have had securing the big nods. Will Obama have an eyebrow-raising nod nearly every day before February 5? Don't be surprised. Caroline Kennedy dominates today, and there's also California Rep. Xavier Becerra (D). Who's next?

*** Is it now all about Bill? The magnitude and size of Obama's South Carolina victory is likely to shift a negative focus on Bill Clinton's role in the campaign. Until yesterday, his role at been panned in the media -- but seen as successful in New Hampshire and Nevada. That was not the case yesterday. Camp Clinton is no doubt pondering some shift in Bill's role. Frankly, last night was strange when the first Clinton the world heard from last night on camera was Bill (from Missouri) and not Hill (from Tennessee). For a candidacy that swears is only about Hillary, having Bill be the first Clinton the public hears from sent the wrong signal.

*** On to February 5: With Clinton and Obama splitting the first four contests, we head into Tsunami Tuesday in a Democratic nominating race that seems entirely up for grabs. From our vantage point, these are Clinton’s base states: CA, NY, NJ, AR, MA, and OK. Obama’s are: AK, ID, KS, MN, ND, GA, AL, and IL. The toss-ups appear to be: AZ, CT, CO, DE, MO, NM, TN, and UT. Among those toss-ups, AZ and CT might lean towards Clinton, since they’re closed to independents, and TN -- where Clinton is today -- probably leans her way, too. Of course, Obama will make plays in CA, MA, and NJ, and sources tell us that he is going up with ads in Philly (NJ) and New York City (NY, NJ, CT). Also, Edwards will go heavily after OK and TN.

*** The Florida exhibition game: But what about Florida? Last night, in her concession statement, Clinton said, “We now turn our attention to the millions of Americans who will make their voices heard in Florida and the 22 states as well as American Samoa who will vote on February 5th.” Yet because Florida moved up its primary before February 5, the DNC stripped the state of all of its delegates, rendering the contest nothing more than a beauty contest or an exhibition game. So as we now head into the playoffs, Team Clinton believes that an upcoming exhibition game should matter. As the Obama campaign shot back in a statement yesterday afternoon, “It should not be surprising given recent events that the Clinton campaign would in one breath say the election is about winning delegates and then tout their success in states that don’t award any delegates in the next breath… If the Clinton campaign's southern strength rests on the outcome in a state where they're the only ones competing, that should give Democrats deep pause.”

*** Clinton-Obama isn’t the only contentious race going on: McCain vs. Romney is heating up big time. McCain's getting endorsements galore -- the Charlie Crist pick, coupled with Mel Martinez, gives McCain's folks every chance they can to make up whatever ground they think they need against Romney. It's a battle of two coalitions: Romney's putting together younger conservatives, talk-radio conservatives, and social conservative activists; McCain's got veterans, Cubans, moderates, and the 65+ crowd. Both are winning formulas in a multi-candidate primary. More importantly, both Romney and McCain have opponents taking a piece of their base coalition: Giuliani's hurting McCain with Cubans and moderates; Huckabee is hurting Romney with social conservatives. The big question is: Who needs Florida more? Probably Romney. A McCain victory in Florida may mean he's unstoppable; a Romney victory probably won't do enough to stop McCain from getting his share of delegates on February 5, since there's a chunk in the Northeast (NY, NJ, DE and CT) that are winner-take-all and likely to be hard for Romney to wrestle away. By the way, the Crist endorsement is gutsy politics for the Florida governor. If McCain wins, Crist becomes the single-most important kingmaker endorsement in the GOP primary. If McCain loses, it will cause Crist internal problems for some time, as he won't be the vaunted state party leader his approval ratings seem to hint at. By the way, Joe Lieberman goes back to Florida today to campaign for McCain...

*** On the trail: Clinton attends worship services in Memphis, TN; Edwards stumps in Dublin, GA; Giuliani is in Florida, where he speaks at a Boca Raton synagogue and then campaigns in Port St. Lucie, Vero Beach, and Cocoa Beach; Huckabee, also in Florida, speaks at First Baptist Orlando (closed to the press), then attends a Fair Tax rally in Jacksonville, and then delivers evening remarks at East Brent Baptist Church in Pensacola; McCain, in the Sunshine State campaigns in Polk City, Lake Lady, and Orlando; Obama makes remarks at Harvest Cathedral in Macon, GA and then heads to Birmingham, AL; and Romney, in Florida, attends fundraisers in Palm Beach and Boca Raton.

Countdown to Florida: 2 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 9 days
Countdown to Chesapeake Tuesday: 16 days
Countdown to Ohio and Texas: 37 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 282 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 359 days

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Comments

After reading many of these comments, I'm struck by the different tenor of the Obama and Clinton camps. Obama truly does appeal to the best, the highest of our instincts. Camp Hillary is doing the "splicing and dicing" that Barack decried in his 2004 convention speech.

I am sickened by the effort that Hillary and Bill have expended to depict Barack as the "black candidate".   This is sheer and utter nonsense. I live in Minnesota and while many stereotypes about MN are not true, it is accurate to say that Minnesota does not have a proportionately large African American population. However, I know white women from 20-60 that are supporting him, many of whom are self-identified feminists as well. Our votes, our choices, our aspirations can not be reduced to simple gender or race.
I hope for Obama, his supporters and commentators to state clearly, once, that Obama is both white and black, running to unify us all as a country in need of working together to heal our many issues. We need someone who will focus us on listening to one another. When we can rise above under-cutting and wangling, we can create a country of people who actually feel presented when the president extends our arms into the world. Thanks.
Katie M,

According to the media I believe Senator Obama was the one who bought ads on cable knowing they would air in Florida!  So who reneged on the pledge?

As for this column, your are correct in stating that Obama won 80% of the black vote, but conversly didn't he also lose 76% of the white vote?  Spinning the whole thing a little differently his win was only 10%, not so overwhelming after all.  I believe John Edwards was credited with only 1% of the black vote, so I say you still had a result split along racial lines.

I hope for Obama, his supporters and commentators to state clearly, once, that Obama is both white and black, running to unify us all as a country in need of working together to heal our many issues. We need someone who will focus us on listening to one another. When we can rise above under-cutting and wangling, we can create a country of people who actually feel presented when the president extends our arms into the world. Thanks.
Bill Clinton and Ralph Nader together have worked very hard over the last seven+ years to keep a Republican in the White house. It is time for the democrats to unite around someone who sees a future for the human race and can lead everyone into a golden age.
I am still so upset at the way the Clintons are portrayed so negatively and Obama is constantly given a pass. I really want to see a democrat in office but I want one with some experience. I don't see much difference in negativity between these two. Are we not going to point out any flaws for Obama? The press may love him but they can't make every voter forget how little experience he has or how nonspecific he is on issues. If it comes down to him and Mccain, I will have to choose Mccain. Edwards is my first choice, but he doesn't exist to the media.  
PEOPLE!, now is our time to wrestle our government away from the big bucks elites and corporations.
GOTC Get off the couch
YES WE CAN
Here's a question: If Senator Clinton had elected not to run, who would Bill Clinton have supported? My guess is that he would have been very enthusiastic about Barack Obama because he probably would have sensed a kinship with Senator Obama's charisma, inspiring rhetoric, and enthusiasm - not to mention the nature of Obama's message.  Could it be possible that part of what is at play with Clinton is a subconscious resentment that he HAS to support Hillary over Obama, i.e. that his marital DUTY prevents him from playing with the other team (that he really wants to support) lest he look unfaithful again in the eyes of the public? Put another way, would Bill rather be known as the powerful ex-President who helped his own wife get elected in a dynastic response to the Bushes (and - oh yeah - the first woman President) or the popular, inspiring ex-President and civil rights supporter who helped the country embrace the first African-American President? Which does more for his legacy?
joe and mika are naive.you get more objective analysis
from Pat Bucanan.
I am stunned w/ the number of positively racist comments about Obama's win yesterday.  

What too few people are saying is that Obama got more votes than McCain and Huckabee combined -- in a red state.  More people voted in the Democratic primary than voted last week in the Republican primary.  Obama's appeal puts red states in play for the Democrats in November.  

Obama may not be able to win these red states in November, but he would force the Republican candidate to spend money  and campaign in red states -- something they haven't had to do in quite a while.  His appeal transcends party and transcends state divisions.  
It comes as no surprize to me that the Clintons who have resorted to any tactic to get elected would get their heads handed to them on a platter. Obama has tried to run a campaign of hope and vision while the Clintons spent their time trying to drag him into the gutter. Saturday's vote was a rejection of the Clinton tactics by the South Carolina voters.
Okay, all you young people...you need to get to your primaries or caucus to support Obama.  This over 50 mom recognizes that it is time for the next generation. You guys can make this happen.  My kids will be at the MN caucus, PLEASE go to your caucus or primary and support new hope.  Please.
Why is Firstread completely Anti-Clinton? I thought this site was supposed to be neutral?

Hillary Clinton is the established candidate; therefore the established Democratic foothole states are going to Clinton: California, West Virginia, New York, New Jersey, Arkansas, Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, Tennessee, and Connecuit....

If she pulls with 1500 Delegates which is very plausible, she will have essentially locked up the nomination.
"Snoop Dogg could have won SC"...."SC is a Black State"....

Wow...Reading some of these comments only suggest that "CHANGE" is imperative if we are to ever move forward as a country.

And by the way....Al Sharpton ran in 04 and came in third. To echo the chants of those from all diffrent walks of life who were at the rally last night..
"Race Doesn't Matter"....Enough of the division.

A house Divided can not stand! Words spoken by another great President at a time when the country was bitterly divided.

I believe.....
The debate here in California this coming week is huge. I think the contrast between Hillary and Obama will be accentuated and Obama will gain enough momentum to win in California. I also will make a wild card prediction that Governor Schwarzenegger will eventually support Obama.
First off I would like to say that Mr. Edwards and Mr. Obama chose to take their names off the ballott in Michigan. It wasn't breaking any rules. Those rules were never imposed. They should have thought ahead and left them on. As far as breaking promises it was Obama who is running ads in Florida. I see them everyday and personally it makes me sick. Why can he do it and no one else? Why not the media frenzy over this? If Hillary had ran ads it would be on every blog/newspaper/radio and TV station in the whole United States. As far as Bill Clinton always in the media goes, the press make sure they follow his every move. They never show anyone for the other 2 nominees so they make it look as if he is always putting his 2 cents in. Im sure the others have their campaign managers putting their 2 cents in but we just don't get to see it. Also, I'm glad that someone is standing up for Florida. The people of Florida should not be penelized for something that they had no idea what was going on. An election in America is about the people and their voice. Every American should stand up and be counted. The delegates will be seated at the convention. The party has appealled the DNC'S ruling months ago. Long before Mrs. Clinton had anything to do with it. As far as Michigan goes, if the other two nominees were niave enough to remove their names than that is their problem not Mrs. Clintons. Some of the comments on here are so wrong. Bill is a racist??? Come on, get the facts when he was in the Whitehouse he helped out so many Blacks. That is why he was labeled the first Black President. That name was given to him by the Black Community. I have come to the conclusion after reading so many comments on this blog and other boards that the Obama supporters only see and hear what they choose to. I haven't decided who I will vote for but the more I read I know it will not be Mr. Obama. He lacks the knowledge and guts to make it in the Whitehouse. He is a great speaker and motivational speaker, but, that is all I have gotten from him. I'm sure the Republicans would love to go head to head with him. It would be a truly horrible thing to see the high and mighty Mr. Obama get chewed up and spit out.
Hillary Clinton deserved the beating she received in South Carolina. Her and her husband’s behavior in recent weeks has been a disgrace, and as a former Clinton voter I have lost any respect I might have ever had for the former first couple. I have no doubt, however, that we can fully expect to see more dirty politics from the Clintons as we head into Super Tuesday.
Dear Lynne, LR,Ar,

I will indeed count you as a troll.  Thanks.
I have supported the democratic party for almost 50 years but I will not support Obama. I feel he is a charlitan. He has no real vision for our country. If he is our nominee you better get ready for President McCain or Romney
I have supported the democratic party for almost 50 years but I will not support Obama. I feel he is a charlitan. He has no real vision for our country. If he is our nominee you better get ready for President McCain or Romney
THE PRESS HAD HAS THE GOOD JUDGEMENT NOT TO LIKE BUSH.NOW YOU HAVE TO ASK YOURSELF WHY DONT THE PRESS LIKE THE CLINTON,S. TO ME IT IS GOOD JUDGEMENT!
Hey, FIRSTREAD!
Back off of Bill. According to you he was first on camera giving concession, is because you were there trying to read into every word he says. Meanwhile, Hillary gave a nice speech and a phone call to BHO. so try not to be so biased. it's all your fault, not his.
What does Obama's South Carolina win mean?  Aboslutely nothing!  S. Carolina is the deep south and does not speak for the rest of the country, especially the blue states in the west and northeast.  His victory in south Carolina is quite insignificant.  We will see what happens come Feb. 5th.  Obama may win some smaller states but I believe he will get trounced in the big states like California and New York.  And those are the ones that matter.  I have never heard someone talk so much and say nothing...that describes Obama!!
Vera Duffield, VA,
Congratulations.  You've just been played by the Clintons.  That's exactly how they were hoping white voters (& latino voters also btw) would react.  You've just become their puppet.

Realize that if you do what you're suggesting, YOU will be the one playing the RACE CARD.  

Look in the mirror before you place your vote and ask yourself whether you want to be stuck with a historical racist mentality or willing to open your mind to the realities of a new world.

Notice that Obama won 50% of the white votes under 30.  That's because those individuals are rejecting the slanted angry divisive racist mentality of the past.  Now the test is whether their parents can do the same.
The media anointed Obama after the Iowa caucus and then look what happened.  This is a long process and the Clintons have a very strong base in lots of the upcoming states.  The truth of the matter is, the demographics in the upcoming states do not favor Obama as much as they did in South Carolina.  Let the people vote.  MSNBC and all other media outlets have to stop calling the elections before the public goes into the voting booth.
Welcome to Obama Channel also called MSNBC where yellow journalism rules.

Any updates on Rezko? ABC & CBS is way ahead of you in that MSNBC. Let us know when you will start sharing real news instead of your idolized views of the messiah Obama.

Those who want real news, check ABC news.
I am so tired of the bias the media has towards the Clintons.  Obama can get away with murder and you torture Sen. Clinton for flubbing a misqoute about what temperature it would be on a Thursday!  WAKE UP AMERICA - If the media (controlled by corporations) doesn't want her, and the Republicans (controlled by corporations) doesn't want her, than we the people should want her!!  How about getting off your Obama spin and actually looking at his record for a change!!
its interesting that some people keep bringing up the fact that obama won 80% of the black vote in SC and that SC doesn't count (Vera, tracy,michele, lynne, SS) ... how about IOWA, NH, how quickly people forget ... or maybe they didn't forget, maybe its just more convenient to turn Obama into the black candidate
Ted. Kennedy to endorse Obama tomorrow.
First Read:
Let's start reporting the real story.  Senator Clinton has ONE constituency voting for her consistently:  WHITE WOMEN OVER 50.  This group tends to vote in overwhelming numbers and so they have a disproportionate say on results.  While you're focusing on race and gender, let's start shining the spotlight where it should be shone.
MSNBC is only for Obama,I am so sick of Joe in the morning and that stupid blonde Mika that does funny  things with her mouth.I hope they both get fired.All they talk about is Obama and put down the Clintons.I will never watch this station after the elections.
It wasn't the 'race' that won it for Obama---as in Iowa, it was the turnout.  All of the long-standing old timers showed up for Edwards and Clinton, just as they promised they would.  In both states, it was the flood of new people (independents, younger folks, people fed up, repubs who see the mess) that put Obama over the top.  Note that if the same folks show up to vote in November, Obama carries South Carolina---he had practically as many votes as were cast in the entire Republican primary one week ago.  To paraphrase what is obvious and what Obama observed last week: Clinton's voters will vote for him in November; it's a whole lot less likely his would vote for her.  Hope those of you in voting states 2/5 will do your job for the rest of us.
The Republican Party hates Hillary and loves Obama. The Republicans want the Democratic Party to nominate Obama because he will be so easy to beat. Obama cannot even withstand criticism from fellow Democrats and independents without whining and falling apart. In a general election the Republicans would hit him with attacks a thousand times worse than anything he has ever yet faced. He whines that he has 2 Clintons to run against after he campaigned on the back of Opra for weeks and now has John Kerry to help him whine.

Obama's big win in South Carolina is a Pyrrhic victory. He won a small battle, but to do so he turned himself from being the no-race candidate into the "black" candidate. His undisguised play for the black vote worked, but now that is all he has. Soon, he is going to reap the whirlwind on Super Tuesday in California (my state) and other states as they will vote overwhelmingly for Hillary.
Several points ...
1.How many of those votes were independent/leaning Republican who hate clinton but have no intention of voting for a democrat in the general?
2.The press is driving the race card and their hatred of the Clintons is transperant.
3 Obama the black canidate is 1/2 white he could just as easily be labeled wht if you go by % another media driven misperception.
4. The bitterness and hatred of the Clintons whipped up by the press Joe S. Chris M. and others will turn both sides off resulting in the relelection of another Republican probably John M which is the hidden agenda of those right wing sychophants.
5. The Clintons are the better story and so the media focuses on them while giving Obama a pass (redundant) but at the same time the Republicans a pass which will only play in their favor in Nov.
And Finaly has anyone out there ever heard the media speak ill of Obama questioned his position on anything? (btw what is his position besides change for change sake)?
I urge everyone in states that have been denied delegates by the DNC to vote for their candidates anyway if for no other reason than a protest.  Those votes will counted and viewed by the campaigns and the media so they will have a voice, albeit a small one.



The greatest nation in the world is now divided on race and dirty politics. I am sure our nation builders must be turning in their graves.

A developing nation India, has had a women Prime Minister and President, 2 Presidents one Sikh and One Muslim and we the greatest nation are dividing ourselves on race. Shame on us.....

In the 21st century ,  a century when race, sex , religion and creed should have no meaning, if we continue on the same road as we are today it won't be long we will lose the right to call ourselves a great nation.

The war in Iraq divided us and the current economy is in shambles. We have a president who is a little distant from reality and here we democrats are bickering about race.

Bill for sure needs to tone it down a little. An ex president stooping down to such a level is shameful. If he continues to do what he is doing, he will cost Hillary the nomination if he hasn't done it already.

Hillary needs to reign her man in. She wasn't able to do it the first time when she was the first lady. She needs to do it now.  

Obama needs to be more specific in his plans.

Having said that he seems to a man who can bring the country togther. He is inspiring, likeable and has universal appeal. Hillary is polariazing and if the democrats don't elect a candidate with univeral appeal we might again lose the white house.

Guess MSNBC's tactics worked for SC.  Your commentators are the very ones to continue the racism issue and at the same time fuel the hatared I'm seeing all over the media message boards about Hillary Clinton and her campaign.  I wrote to you this morning that I won't be watching anymore of your newscasts, especially, Matthews and Olbermann.  The only people who made sense in the last few days to me were Craig Crawford and Joan Walsh, each of whom brought to the forefront the media's role over the last few weeks.  

So sit back folks and swallow hook, line and sinker everything spoon fed to you by this organization and that other one and you'll end up with a Republican in the White House in 2009.
Great job being a precinct captain for Obama and MCCain. Honestly I thought Fox News was bad but MSNBC's vitriol againts the Clintons and Romney this elction season has been nauseating. Keith Dobermann was on a jihad against Hillary last night. Let's see what he has to say on February 5th.   What does "MSNBC" stand for- Must Stay Negative (about)Bill Clinton.  Compared to you guys Fox News is "fair and balanced."  BTW how does an endorsement from Ted "Nutcase" Kennedy help Obama get his beloved independent and Republican votes in Democratic primaries?
I know lots of you folks in the media are already giving hispanic votes to Hilary like if our community have a special allegiance to the Clintons. Yes it's true that Bill had a very close relationship with us but that doesn't mean we won't use good judgments in the upcoming primaries.
Hilary may have 35 years of experience and considered the most electable (whatever that means)but many of us want something different. We want somebody who can reach along party lines and get things done for all Americans. Employing divide & rule will accomplish nothing but giving congress lots of time to hold hearings on steroids and baseball.
I enjoy watching Tim Russert's interviews.  I wish however he would concentrate more on meaningful followup questions instead of trying to just ask all his "gotcha" questions.  I would much rather know why John McCain would not want to set private timetables, milestones, and goals (all best practice management concepts)in managing the Iraq war, than to see him blast Thad Cochrane for not supporting him.  Or why his "refinement" of his views on tax cuts and immigration are different than any other candidtate's "flip flops" instead of his predictable response to Bill Clinton's feelings about him.
IOWAN there is no way in hell l would vote for Obama McCain maybe Clinton yes. BTW after MSNBC and the rest of the Clinton hating networks secure the democratic nomination for Obama they will savage him like they did Clinton while giving the Rep a pass... count on it. Oh before l forget Obama is the wht canidate (50%) masquarading as a brother. Chris Matthews said that Hillary would be no where if Bill had not victimized her by having an affair, where would Obama be if he wasnt an OREO Chris... just the Junior Senator from Illi with no ideas and the wit and phony promises of a car salesman.
MSNBC= Must Stay Negative (about) Bill Clinton (at all times).
To clarify, the Obama ads that are airing in the states that the DNC is not allowing delegates, were approved by the DNC itself. They did not violate any party agreements.  The ads were purchased as national ads and could not be blacked out in those states.  
Now, explain why Hillary was the only candidate in the Nevada ticket!
CONGRATULATIONS BARACK OBAMA!!!!!  You've won this middle aged white woman over.  I will be voting for you in the Arizona primary on February 5th.

PS.  People of Florida, now is your chance to kick the Clinton's to the curb!!   OH, YES WE CAN!!!!
Oops, I meant the Michigan ballot!
By the way MSNBC, is Pat Bucanan on your payroll, or the Clinton's?
I guess Bill Clinton will now call Ted Kennedy "some drunk guy" and John Kerry "some guy that kind of fought in a war". Clinton has a few, shall we say, addictions in his closet, and he avoided the draft as well as saying "he loathed the military". So is that why Kerry and Kennedy are endorsing Obama? I can see PA Governor Randell endorsing Hillary, she's obvioulsy promised him a job in her administration. But Kerry and Kennedy aren't gunning for cabinet positions. They are endorsing Obama because they think he's the right one for the job.
Wow i just watched "Fixed Noise" coverage of last night's election and it really was far better than your's has been lately.  They did not elevate race beyond reporting the exit polls, and spoke without bias and with good insight.  On FOX did i mention... you guys need to get it together!
"But remember, this is the South, and the white vote was always going to be a little more difficult for Obama to capture southern whites."

You should edit that to read "white democrats" & "southern white democrats"

Leave the rest of us white folks in the south out of this until the general election. Thanks :-)
I am so hype up about Obama and his win in SC, I hope that the other 22 states step up on February 5 and let Bilary know we want Change and that our voices are loud enough to make it happen.  We can defeat the voices that say we can't  have change, we can show the world that we are truly unified and we can beat Bilary YES WE CAN.  I am so proud that C. Kennedy gave her stamp of approval.   I just wish Al Gore would step up and endorse Obama, it would be a real boost to the Obama camp and his way of getting back at Bilary.


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