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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

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Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



The battle for Florida

Posted: Monday, January 28, 2008 9:20 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under:

A new Quinnipiac poll of Florida has McCain at 32%, Romney at 31%, Giuliani at 14%, and Huckabee at 13% among likely primary voters.

It's actually impressive that McCain's camp has had such success in getting Iraq back on the front burner. With Romney finding his comfort zone with the economy, McCain's camp has decided to try and change the subject. "On Sunday, Mr. Romney went on the offensive first, opening a new line of attack on Mr. McCain over economic issues and declining to continue the previous day’s spat over Iraq, calling it ‘yesterday’s news’ at a news conference here. Instead, Mr. Romney sought to revive an argument he used in Michigan. He took Mr. McCain to task for his proposal of a ‘cap and trade’ system for carbon dioxide emissions, saying it would cause energy costs to skyrocket and be a drag on the economy."

"McCain campaigned on Sunday morning in Tampa with Gov. Charlie Crist, who endorsed him on Saturday. Mr. McCain continued his focus on national security, touching only sparingly on the nation’s economic jitters.”

“‘Even if the economy is the, quote, No. 1 issue, the real issue will remain America’s security,’ Mr. McCain said to reporters, according to The Associated Press. ‘And if they choose to say, “Look, I do not need this guy because he’s not as good on home loan mortgages” or whatever it is, I understand about that, I will accept that verdict. I am running because of the transcendental challenge of the 21st century, which is radical Islamic extremism.’”

“Floridians often describe their state as a microcosm of the country with a diverse, albeit decidedly older population and profiles that vary widely in different parts of the state. McCain, Romney, Rudy Giuliani, and Mike Huckabee are not ignoring any regions because no group or area is monolithic. There are potential votes for every candidate in each place or segment of the population.” 
 
When in Florida… Romney “was not wearing his usual Boston businessman's uniform of French-cuff shirt and silk tie. Romney was wearing an open-necked ivory-white guayabera, the traditional Cuban men's shirt. ‘It's an honor to be able to wear this guayabera today,’ Romney told cheering Cuban-American supporters. …‘I have a feeling I won't be wearing it throughout the campaign,’ the buttoned-down former venture capitalist said, looking somewhat uncomfortable in his new garb. ‘But I sure am proud of wearing it on such a warm day in Miami.’”

Giuliani yesterday acknowledged he was caught off guard by Florida Gov. Charlie Crist’s (R) backing of John McCain, NBC/NJ’s Matthew E. Berger notes. “I was surprised at the governor’s endorsement. But, you know, the governor has the right to endorse anyone that he wants,” he told reporters after a rally at Paisano’s Gourmet Pizza. “I think ultimately the voters of Florida are gonna vote based on who’s best for Florida.”

Also yesterday, Giuliani and his wife made a surprise stop by the press bus just before departure from Cocoa Beach, NBC’s John Yang reports. Giuliani spoke briefly to camera, explaining that he’s optimistic about his chances. He also said he’s not thinking about Tsunami Tuesday. "We thinking about January 29 -- that's our day."

NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann reports that down to the wire in a key primary state, Huckabee yesterday hit two of the constituencies he has counted on during his freewheeling campaign. By lunchtime, the governor had already received the prayers of Baptists in Orlando and the cheers of Fair Tax advocates in Jacksonville. Badly in need of a momentum shift, the governor told reporters today that he's hoping for a "respectable" showing in Florida before moving on to Super Tuesday states like Alabama and Georgia.

Per NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-Treworgy, Joe Lieberman joined McCain and Florida Sen. Mel Martinez at a town hall at the Villages yesterday.

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Woke up this morning and ALL the major news sites are ALL McCain.  He's getting the establishiment around him because he IS the establishment.  

FLORIDA, look at what is REALLY happening:

Romney is telling the truth re: McCain's self-professed weakness in economics and his record on the Bush tax cuts.  It doesn't matter why McCain didn't vote for them-- they have proven to work and he has CHANGED his position on them now and yet continues to try to exaggerate that Romney changes his position on things.  Everyone seems to be forgetting McCain's liberal stance/bill on illegal immigration, his poor attendance/voting record in the senate (job performance) and the fact that being on a committee doesn't require management, leadership or inspiring others into action.

McCain is misleading and LYING about Romney's stance on the war in Iraq!  How can you elect someone who is LYING about the other guy in order to get votes?  Romney says it's imperative to stay in Iraq until it is stable, to have a list of objectives to reach AS the timetable ONLY and to NOT announce all this to the enemy.  McCain supported and fought for the surge.  THat alone is not proof that he will be the best President.  I have confidence that Romney would lead the war just as well relying on the military on the ground-- as he has said.  WIth ALL of the other issues, immigration, the economy, downsizing and streamlining the fed government-- I trust Romney to be MUCH better suited, let alone his temperament and proven record to lead.  McCain has been in Washington this whole time that we've been running up deficits.  He hasn't been fighting it tooth and nail like Ron Paul has been.  He's just happy to sit in his cushy job.  i admire his service to our country but that is not the most critical credential for all that we need out of our next president.

And for those thinking McCain will beat the Dems.  We will have two dems to vote on if he is the GOP nominee.  He hasn't gotten ANY of the republican base votes AHYWHERE, even though on the debate he LIED and said he got the GOP votes in NH and SC.    
I am running because of the transcendental challenge of the 21st century, which is radical Islamic extremism.’”

Is that the same reason he ran in 2000?  Or is this his current raison d'etre?

Regardless, I congratulate all members of the MSM who appear to be on the verge of their long-desired victory for McCain, along with their much sought after marginalization of Dr. Paul.

I keep forgetting that the members of the MSM are smarter than both me and the voters.  I should just accept what they tell me... like David Shuster "joking" that Paul supporters are tantamount to Al Qaida.
Did anyone watch Morning Joe today? Admittedly that show probably isn't drawing many of us Repubs, but it was shocking. Apparently McCain is so deperate to change the conversation away from the people's concerns so he can gain politically that he promised more wars. Now, we're in a war on terror with many fronts, I get that, but this is political opportunism at its worst. He didn't talk about this referring to any specific threats, he just promised more wars. I want a tough president but I'd prefer to have someone whose foreign policy AVOIDS war - "peace through strength." The real story here is how the press is finally seeing McCain for what he is. He has never been this saint everyone is making him out to be. He's seeking personal gain, he's a lifetime politician and being president is some kind of entitlement. But he certainly hasn't earned it. Now that the cult of personality is being undermined, hopefully people will vote on the issues and steer away from John McCain.
McCain's straght talk Express does not the let the truth get in his way.  

He lied to Russert during the debate and he is lying again.

Will the Liberal Media call him out on it?  Are you kidding me, Mr. Murray says he is impressed with McCain's ability to change the subject.
So, McCain is actually trying to do something about global warming, and Romney is harping on him for that.  Somehow I don't see that playing well in a region that gets hit by weather-related disasters so often, but maybe I'm wrong.
“I am running because of the transcendental challenge of the 21st century, which is radical Islamic extremism.’” - McCain

John, you've been in Washington for over 25 years but you haven't been there alone. There are hundreds of US citizens like you with the same (plenty with even greater) knowledge of US foreign policy and national security issues, yet we still do not have peace. You haven't been able to solve the war or the threat so far on your own and you won't be able to even as President without help. What makes you think you're so damn special?

I'd vote for you to run our navy, but not to shape and form US foreign policy any longer. You have had 25 years worth of chances to influence it and look where we are. Some leader.... Sheesh.
If McCain wins the nomination by appealing to the neocon wing of the party he will surely lose in November.
I just watched the video posted by lfr, thank you for this, it is important that you all watch it!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nl9YE4G8gcY

I suggest anyone who is not sure about McAmnesty watch this before they decide...this man is pathetic!! He used fear to sell himself because he had NO IDEAS!! Common tactic of a poor salesman...cant offer anything so scare them! Please people I beg you not to make this man the nominee..the dems will shred him!! I am a romney supporter, but not asking for you support, just not him! anyone but Mac-attack!!!
First Read, how is Hillary's campaigning in Flordia going?
VOTE FOR MITT ROMNEY! HE IS THE BEST CHOICE FOR THE JOB!
McCain has spewed more lies, day after day. A very desperate old man. McCain is a LOSER in many ways.

McCain's so bad that Americans for Better Immigration ranks his performance in office as the worst of all the presidential candidates -- including Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.
Floridians voting for McCain and Romney are making a huge mistake.  The whole reason we went through the trouble of moving up our primary is because we want candiates to focus more on Florida issues.  Giuliani is the only candidate, Republican or Democrat, to take Florida seriously.  He has spent the most time  here addressing our issues.  If we're just going to vote with the polls then we should have never moved up our primary.  Voting with the polls does nothing for Florida.  We need to come together and vote for the candidate that has given Florida the most attention. This will set a precedent for future elections and ensure Floridians have a leadership role in selecting candidates.


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