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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



The battle for Florida

Posted: Tuesday, January 29, 2008 9:25 AM by Domenico Montanaro

The New York Times on the final day of campaigning yesterday: "Romney … began attacking at dawn, accusing Mr. McCain of allying himself with liberal Democrats in the Senate and betraying conservative principles on legislation involving immigration, the environment and campaign finance. ‘If you want that kind of a liberal Democratic course as president, then you can vote for him,’ Mr. Romney said at a Texaco gas station in West Palm Beach at 6:30 a.m. ‘But those three pieces of legislation, those aren’t conservative. Those aren’t Republican.’”

“Mr. McCain volleyed back by describing Mr. Romney as a serial flip-flopper who had taken multiple positions on a variety of issues, including gay rights, global warming and immigration. ‘People, just look at his record as governor,’ Mr. McCain said at a shipyard in Jacksonville. ‘He has been entirely consistent. He has consistently taken two sides of every major issue, sometimes more than two.’”

The Washington Post adds, "The angry tone between the two extended to the airwaves, as McCain launched a new negative radio ad. ‘If they're going to attack us, we'll push back, so if we have a little sport roughing them up, too bad,’ McCain adviser Mark Salter said.” McCain's new radio ad mocks Romney's economic record as governor and questions his electability, with an announcer saying, ‘The bottom line: Mitt Romney loses to Hillary Clinton. Republicans lose. We can't afford Mitt Romney.’” 

The Wall Street Journal notes that one of the best things McCain has going for him in today's primary is his age. He's done well (so far) among voters over 65, and there are a LOT of voters over 65 in Florida.

“McCain heads into Tuesday's Florida primary facing resistance from not only his fellow candidates, but also from the leaders of conservative talk radio, who some suggest have put their reputations on the line, as well,” the AP says.

“Asked by reporters on his campaign jet to reflect on the uphill road ahead if he loses Tuesday's Florida Republican primary, Giuliani said, "When it's Wednesday morning, we will make a decision. The reality is that voting hasn't even started yet. I believe we are going to win."  But the former mayor also made clear the primary would mark a critical crossroads for his flagging campaign here, which has seen his poll numbers sink from first place to a distant third.”

“The winner of today's Republican presidential primary in Florida will walk away with 57 delegates and momentum heading into the Feb. 5 megacontest,” the Boston Globe writes. “The value of victory in the Democratic primary today will be in the eyes of the beholder and subject to all sorts of spin.”

Miami Herald has a good guide to what we could learn from Florida today.

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Comments

Hillary will kick butt even though it doesn't count so far. I hope Mitt wins. I can't imagine what republican voters will do with a Mormon. McCain is old and doddering, mentally and physically. Hillary can beat either of them.
McCain wants to bomb Iran and stay in Iraq for 100 years and promised for more wars. McCain says he wants interest rates to be ZERO out of complete ignorance for how interest rates affect the economy. I'd like to see him say that to retirees on a fixed income. McCain want 10 million illegal  immigrants to stay permanently and legal immigrants who can vote do not support it. How could this country be secure if he is in power??? If McCain is nominee, as a republican I would rather vote Clinton than McCain. As least we know Clinton has some intelligence and lead the booming economic. McCain will lead this country to a total ruin with his lack of intelligence and no executive experience. Mitt Romney is an expert in economics and finance and is the man we need as president.
Where will mitt get these people from to fill the jobs that Americans don't want to do ? is int it enough that we DEPENDENT ON OIL, and now we SHOULD BE DEPENDENT ON OUR FOOD BEING GROWN ELSEWHERE?

President Bush is RIGHT for saying in the state of the union, That Immigration must be REFORMED. STOP KIDDING YOURSELVES OR WE WILL EVEN LOSE OUR FOOD SUPPLY TO OTHER NATIONS.


"Sooner or later, we have to realize that we need a labor force," Webb said. "Let's make it simple for these people to get their permits. They are just like us. All they want is a good job, a chance to have a home and to raise their kids in a safe place."
COURTING VOTERS in Iowa and New Hampshire, last August Sen. Hillary Clinton signed a pledge not to "campaign or participate" in the Michigan or Florida Democratic primaries. She participated in both primaries and is campaigning in Florida. Which proves, again, that Hillary Clinton is a liar.

Clinton kept her name on the Michigan ballot when others removed theirs, she campaigned this past weekend in Florida, and she is pushing to seat Michigan and Florida delegates at the Democratic National Convention. The party stripped those states of delegates as punishment for moving up their primary dates.

"I will try to persuade my delegates to seat the delegates from Michigan and Florida," Clinton said last week, after the New Hampshire primaries and Iowa caucuses were safely over.

Clinton coldly and knowingly lied to New Hampshire and Iowa. Her promise was not a vague statement. It was a signed pledge with a clear and unequivocal meaning.

She signed it thinking that keeping the other candidates out of Michigan and Florida was to her advantage, but knowing she would break it if that proved beneficial later on. It did, and she did.

New Hampshire voters, you were played for suckers.
Sen. McCain: "The Issue Of Economics Is Not Something I've Understood As Well As I Should." "Like Mike Huckabee, who joked recently that he 'may not be the expert that some people are on foreign policy, but I did stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night,' McCain suggested to reporters Monday that American consumer culture offered a short cut to expertise. 'The issue of economics is not something I've understood as well as I should,' McCain said. 'I've got Greenspan's book.'" (Sasha Issenberg, "McCain: It's About The Economy," The Boston Globe, http://www.boston.com/, Posted 12/18/07)

- Sen. McCain: "I Still Need To Be Educated." "On a broader range of economic issues, though, Mr. McCain readily departs from Reaganomics. His philosophy is best described as a work in progress. He is refreshingly blunt when he tells me: 'I'm going to be honest: I know a lot less about economics than I do about military and foreign policy issues. I still need to be educated.'" (Stephen Moore, "Reform, Reform, Reform," OpinionJournal.com, 11/26/05)

After watching the shrub give the state of the union last night, I couldn't help but think, who cares who wins the repukes nomination. If there is anybody left who still supports the repuke rule, then I say bring on your best candidate, the dems are going to kick butt in november.
Mike Huckabee for President!
All of the issues that you guys are talking about have been addressed by Mike Huckabee with excellent solutions for change and moving this nation forward, creating and keeping our jobs so that the goods and services we use are not produced by foreign nations - so that we are not dependant on the good nature of other nations for our security.

Huckabee is for border control - a physical border up within 18 months and a way of tracking legal visitors to our country in order to ensure they are not coming in legally and staying illegally with ill intent.

Mike Huckabee has a plan to make us free from the dependance on foreign oil within ten years.

He has a plan for creating an even playing field so that our 'Made in America' stamp doesn't come with a price so high that it cannot compete with foreign-made products.

Mike Huckabee has a plan to reform healthcare so that we have options for all americans to receive the care they need - without creating a socialized healthcare.

I attended his speech in Birmingham on Saturday and was totally impressed. He debunked many of the lies we have heard about him in the media. Take a look. He is the hope we are looking for with the experience we need to move our country to a place of prosperity!
I hope Floridians see through the conservative smoke McCain is blowing and see him as his true liberal McCain self he has always been.  Why else is the conservative base so upset with him?  
j fl: "Hillary will kick butt even though it doesn't count so far."

Hillary will "kick-butt"? There is no else running. And she promised she wouldn't campaign there either. Promises are made to be broken I guess, and she breaks a lot of them. Is Florida like the Special Olympics for Hillary? Does she need everyone to let her win just so she can feel good about herself? It is remarkable, and pitiful, that Hillary and her supporters view her vote count in Florida, and Michigan, to actually have some kind of meaning.
Republicans lose if McVain becomes the nominee.
Mike Huckabee for President!
_____
Bwahahhha He is an idiot
Romney claims to have saved the 2002 Winter Olympics, but with a $1.2 billion federal bailout, who couldn’t?  He never mentions Fraser Bullock, his hands-on COO/CFO and the millions of Mormon volunteers who would have done anything to avoid embarrassing Salt Lake City with a failed Olympics!  

As for Bain, people will work 18 hours a day if that's what it takes to affect a turnaround in the private sector.  I worked for a consulting firm, and you’re fired you if you don't produce.  If you think this translates to DC public employee union buy-in for “change”, you've never been to Washington.  Oh right - like Romney.  A President has to lead for results in the public-sector culture.  Read ‘Citizen McCain’ if you want a taste of what it takes to get anything done there.  

Perhaps you need to hear from people who have experienced Mr. Romney up close & personal.  He would never have been reelected in MA & simply used that state to propel himself towards the Presidency.  I live in one of his summer hometowns.  He won the primary here by 100 votes, not because he is loved, but because the town saw $$.  I have never seen newspaper editors issue anti-endorsements for a candidate, but 2 NH papers (1 liberal; 1 conservative) did.
I have lived in 12 US states and know that you can't trade the personal town meeting, where people ask tough questions and expect thorough answers, for TV ads, talk radio/TV, YouTube and sound-byte "debates".  Unfortunate for later primary states that they have only media exposure to candidates and think they are receiving reality rather than entertainment.  So forget Mitt (the Eddie Haskell of candidates).  I might hire him to turn my company around; but I wouldn't follow him across the street.
A.M.
Bwahahhha...
Obviously you are the ignorant one, as you cannot come up with any proof to substantiate your comments. I have educated myself - and you should as well. Listen to what he has to say rather than taking the media's word for it! I was blown away at the things Mike Huckabee had to say. I was really blown away that no one in the media is getting the word out on his political agenda instead of just branding him as the 'preacher'...which, as he pointed out...we were not there to hear former Pastor Huckabee...we were there to hear future President Huckabee.

...and by the way - he IS VERY WELL EDUCATED. He has more executive experience than any other candidate and is self-made (he stands on his record and his strong direction) rather than being in his position because of his last name or how much money he has in his wallet. I know first hand that he is very well educated, as I study under the same well-respected, highly educated man who was one Mike Huckabee's greatest mentors.

Mike Huckabee for President!
...Did you read any more of my post than the first line? And you still think this guy is an idiot? Based on what?
HUckabee is not an idiot- but I don't believe he is electable-McCain is disaster waiting to happen, Romney would probably do the best job- and for the guy up at the beginning of this chat, let the prisoners work in our fields- I'm not saying every single mexican has to go but if you came in illegally you broke the law- the law is the most important thing here- it is what makes us different from everyone else. we obey the law and are protected by our constitution. Illegals should not be protected by OUR constitution.
As a retired veteran, I served in Afghanistan, I was in the Pentagon on 9/11.  Although McCain was a hero once, and I supported him in 2000, something changed along the way that those who srved hold dear...he compromised his integrity.  On the issues he will not stand by the military, he will use them to fight more wars with no real defined mission.  McCain postion on illegal aliens shows his ambivalence to law in the US; just some more straight talk to face the truth?  His message is clear...don't fight anymore for a nation of law and order; accept the truth that illegals are here to stay; accept that from now on we will always continually be fighting war after war after war; accept that no decent jobs will stay in the US.  Is this the vision we want for America?  I've voted republican every time since '76; this time I'd rather give the democrats their opportunity to shine than face this bleak view of the world for my children and grandchildren.

I retired from MA.  At first I was not impressed with Romney, but as time went on, I was amazed at what he did accomplish fighting against a very liberal establishment.  Despite what some people say, the latest polls show he should win MA.
Their goes Romney ;the life size Ken doll; pandering to the religious fanatics again ala Rove to try to get them to foam at the mouth with the conservative vs liberal. Enough! talk about issues that effects middle-class not the hate mongering that appeals to ignorant/rascists as well as corporate Kings, pious pimps like O'Reilly, Limbaugh and bloodsucking blonds; that rhymes with witches; like Coulter.
Please consider this before voting: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nl9YE4G8gcY
I am still undecided on how to vote today.  I am torn between Romney and McCain.  I like them for different reasons.  I am slightly leaning towards McCain because I like him in a general election better than Romney.  

The funny thing is that the biggest thing on the ballot for most people is the property tax ammendment.  Almost everyone I've talked to in my office today is talking more about that than the primary election.  I think it is going to be the primary driver behind a large turnout (Dem and Rep).  So, if you hear someone on either side trying to spin the turnout in their favor keep in mind that the property tax ammendment saw more advertising than all of the candidates combined.

By the way...Ron Paul's supporters are always talking about all of that money he has.  Well, it looks like in Florida all he did was buy lawn signs and have them strewn (illegally) all over the medians and overpasses.  I'm sure that will help him to a 5th place finish.
Now we're seeing that illegal aliens are being allowed to vote, and are voting for John "Let 'em all in!" McCain. You'd think you'd need at least a picture ID to prove you are a resident before you voted. The Dims and the ACLU though say that's discriminatory.

Enjoy your win (if you do win) John. At least the people you represent turned out to vote for you.
Margaret Fuller-First of all there's nothing wrong with Fraser Bullock. Second, there were not millions of mormon volunteers in the 2002 Olympic games. There were 30,000 volunteers, their names are enshrined on a wall of honor in downtown Salt Lake City, and you should take a look at it. There is no mention of whether or not they were mormon. I was one of them, and when filling out our security clearance forms, there was no question that addressed religion. You think that you have endless knowledge of Romney's workings, but you don't mention that Romney worked as a volunteer for atleast 4 years before the opening of the Olympic games, refusing to take a penny for any of his efforts and donating everything he would have received in pay to charity after it was all over. He went to Mass. and volunteered all of his time as Governor for 4 years. He never received a penny and asked the people of Mass. to volunteer their time as well.  What a concept! Asking people to give of themselves in meaningful ways without being paid. Oh that's right, it must be a mormon concept! Do you have something against mormons? I've known plenty of them, and they are the kindest, most service oriented, and self disciplined people on the planet. If you're ever in trouble, you better pray that you run into a mormon, dearie. With the way that this country is going, it'll be your only hope. During Katrina, they were the ones who showed up on people's doorsteps with volunteer t-shirts on and helped homeowners clean up the mess for a long time.  One homeowner said that when mormon missionaries would come to his door, he would shut the door as fast as he could.  After Katrina, he said that no mormon will ever be left standing on his doorstep again without being invited in, because he learned that they were the only people he could count on. I am someone who has experienced Romney for years up close and personal. Your way off base in all of your assumptions about Romney, how he gets things done and what he accomplishes, but your a McCain fan so I'm not surprised.  You and McCain have got to do something to try and make McCain sound better. He's a pretty tough pill to swallow. I laughed to hear Bill Clinton talking about McCain and Hillary this week.  Bill said that they are so close, and have talked about the two of them gaining the nomination of their parties. They say that it would be the most peaceful general election that this country has ever seen. What a revelation! As if we don't know that the Washington post claimed this morning that McCain and Hillary are so close in their ideas that they are a mere echo of each other. You vote for one, you might as well vote for the other. We should thank Bill for reminding us all the day before the Florida primary of how out of step with the republican party McCain really is.
juan- where exactly in this article did Romney pander to the religious right?  Didn't see it.  Haven't seen it mentioned anytime recently.  Conservatives and "religious right" overlap but are not necessarily the prioritize their favorite issues differently.

Kathryn, I still respect your opinion and it's nice that you were able to hear your favorite candidate in person.  however, I am more convinced than ever that Huckabee is a bad choice to lead this country.  While I recognize that education comes from multiple sources, it is true that Mike Huckabee has less formal education than all the rest of the candidates (no higher degree).  I am deeply concerned about the number of ethical violations he had, the thefts from the governor's mansion, his attempts to excuse his son of a crime for which other individuals serve at least a year in prison, and his questionable reasons for commutating so many convicted criminals.  I respect that he is a faithful person, but I feel like he tries to force his brand of faith on others.  His reaction to his loss in SC was to play the blame game.  He said it was Fred Thompson's fault... yet the reason FT was no longer the top southern conservative choice that he was in October was because of Huck (they did it to each other, intentional or not).  He is complaining now because he doesn't have money.  He has raised far less than his rivals, regardless of whether or not they each have personal wealth.  If he can't raise it, that indicates a lack of support.  Romney was AT LEAST as unknown as Huckabee when the campaign started.  So the fact that Romney has outraised Huckabee so much should also indicate why he has outspent him- he had more support and thus more funds.

At this point, at least in Florida, it's a two man race.  All the media outlets are saying that it's McCain vs Romney.  They say that Rudy will "take" some votes from McCain, and Huckabee will "take" some votes from Romney.  So if Romney loses, should he blame Huckabee?  Polls indicate that the majority of Thompson's support went to Romney.  Just FYI.

Romney has experience in the real world and in politics.  He has experience in the economy.  He wants to serve the country.  You many not support him, but there is no denying that he is qualified.
How suprising.....2 people from "Utah" talking up Mitt.  The sheep have spoken.
#1 Romney #2 Guiliani among ALL THE CANDIDATES.

IF YOU VOTE FOR McCAIN-hopefully it's for his VP-and you are crossing your fingers.
David Schuster----GIVE IT A REST!!  WHAT PURPOSE WOULD IT SERVE OBAMA TO SNUB HILLIARY? I'M WATCHING MSNBC AND YOU ARE BRINGING THIS UP MORE FREQUENTLY THAN A 30 SEC COMMERCIAL; OH YEAH, DR. SUSAN RICE IS OUT OF YOUR LEAGUE TO TRY TO COHERSE INTO SOME CONFESSION OF YOUR DESIRE--CHIL LIKE BILL.  


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