First thoughts: FL showdown, sideshow
Posted: Tuesday, January 29, 2008 9:28 AM by Domenico Montanaro
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** The Florida showdown: The Romney-McCain race in Florida has become almost as entertaining as a Miami-FSU football game (circa '97-'02, of course) -- and about as heated, too. Yesterday, McCain was calling Romney a flip-flopper (ouch), while Romney was returning the fire with McCain-Feingold, McCain-Kennedy, and McCain-Lieberman (yikes). And the reason why, as we've mentioned before, is just how much is at stake. A McCain win makes him the undisputed front-runner, with a clear path to the GOP nomination. A Romney win, meanwhile, gives him tons of momentum heading into February 5, although McCain should still do well in several of the delegate-rich states like New York and California. But the bigger effect of a Mitt victory on McCain would be a financial one -- it would make it more difficult for him to raise the cash he needs to stay competitive beyond February 5. Indeed, Romney-McCain has the feel of being one of the closest primaries of this early season … and we all know what happens when Florida has tight contests, right? It’s a winner-take-all, and 57 delegates are at stake. Polls open at 7:00 am ET and close at 7:00 pm ET in most parts of the state; in the panhandle that’s in Central Time, it’s 8:00 am ET and 8:00 pm ET. So there will be no call or even a characterization of the race until 8:00 pm ET.
*** Pluses and minuses: Romney and McCain both have reasons to believe they can win or excuses if they lose. Romney's got the fact this primary is open only to registered Republicans, a group McCain has struggled with in previous primaries. Meanwhile, McCain has veterans and voters over 65 to lean on. But Huckabee may be taking Romney vote, and Rudy may be taking McCain vote. The question is: Which of those two hurt the front-runners more? By the way, don't let folks pass around the myth that the exit polls do not account for the early vote -- that's not true. The consortium thoroughly polls early voters and includes those results in the first wave and adjusts the weighting of that early vote survey as same-day turnout is taken into account.
*** Rudy’s last stand: The GOP candidate who’s trailing a distant third in the polls behind McCain and Romney is the person who staked everything on Florida: Rudy Giuliani. He sure seems to be acting like a guy trying to go out with grace. The autographed baseballs for the traveling press were a nice touch but also a HUGE hint. And as NBC’s John Yang, who is following Giuliani, put it yesterday: There is a real feeling of valedictory on this trip, like a final senior class trip or the bus ride home from summer camp. Reporters posing for pictures with aides, the baseballs on each seat, and so on. The question, short term, is what does Rudy do tomorrow? Dropping out seems likely but does he endorse? Politico's Jonathan Martin has a theory that Giuliani will quickly endorse McCain (i.e., pre-February 5) so that Rudy can bask in the glow a bit in McCain's likely Tsunami Tuesday victories in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. Not a bad theory, no?
*** The Florida sideshow: While everything is on the line in Florida's GOP primary, that's certainly not the case on the Dem side, given that the DNC stripped Florida of all of its delegates for moving up its primary before February. In turn, it has become nothing more than a beauty contest. But that hasn't stopped the Clinton campaign -- and some pundits as well -- from trying to make it count, even though the Democratic candidates all pledged not to campaign in the state. In fact, Clinton holds a victory rally of sorts tonight in Davie, FL. But the Obama folks seem to have a point: If the nomination is about winning the most delegates, as the Clinton campaign says, then Florida shouldn't count, right? To put it another way, as we've said before, if you’re heading to the playoffs, you can't suddenly say that some exhibition game now matters. The other issue for Clinton is that she's running against herself, and anything short of a big win could backfire. All this said, what will the average viewer tonight take away? A Clinton win in the most famous swing state in the country? Will the average viewer even care that the DNC penalized the state on the delegate front and that no one campaigned there? This is what the Clinton campaign is counting on.
*** SOTU thoughts: Watching last night’s State of the Union, anyone else get the sense that President Bush was just glad to be done? He had the smirk going for about half the speech, and then came the Iraq portion when the smirk did go away and he made what seemed like a very familiar argument about Iraq and foreign policy. The problem for Bush, of course, is just that: The argument is familiar, and it's unclear whether he has anyone listening to him anymore. As for how the presidentials handled the SOTU, a few things: 1) Mitt Romney seemed hesitant to pin the "broken Washington" tag on Bush when given the chance; 2) Obama's apparent snub of Clinton in the Senate chamber wasn't missed by many (just how bitter is this race?); 3) speaking of Obama, we're guessing the video response he provided a good platform for his supporters to watch and then, well, contribute (by the way, will video SOTU responses be the norm in a few years?); 4) did anyone notice how short McCain's press release response was? Did he really only send out a release praising Bush's earmark comments and that's it? 5) Why did Clinton cancel the rest of her TV interviews last night after her chat with NBC's Brian Williams? Unclear, but she’ll be doing the full cable radio today. Finally, isn't it amazing that Obama-Kennedy stepped on the State of the Union? That's something… says a lot about the presidential race and the sitting president.
*** Buckeye Bill: How much should we read into the decision to send Bill Clinton to Ohio today? Ohio is not a February 5 primary state, but a March 4 one. If February 5 doesn't decide anything (and neither campaign seems to think it will), then the next BIG day is March 4 -- especially for the Clinton campaign, since the primaries and caucuses taking place between Tsunami Tuesday and March 4 are all in states that may favor Obama. Anyway, it's striking to see Bill's schedule already include Ohio, though we're guessing it's a two-fer stop (fundraising in private and a public even tacked on to start prepping post-Feb. 5). And by the way, the Clinton camp is prepping a major endorsement, likely Feb. 5-related; there aren't many big February 5 gets left, so think major members of Congress and governors.
*** On the trail: On the GOP side, Giuliani gives it a final push in Miami, Pompano Beach, Delray Beach, and Orlando; Huckabee holds two events in Tampa and then it’s off to three stops in the February 5 state of Missouri; McCain makes four stops in Florida, including Miami, St. Petersburg, and a fundraiser; and Romney makes two stops -- in Tampa and St. Petersburg. On the Dem side, as mentioned earlier, Clinton holds a rally in Davie, FL; Edwards is in Oklahoma, Missouri, and Minnesota; Obama campaigns in Kansas and Missouri; and Bill Clinton, in addition to his event in Ohio, stumps for his wife in New Jersey.
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 7 days
Countdown to Chesapeake Tuesday: 14 days
Countdown to Ohio and Texas: 35 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 280 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 357 days
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