Analyzing Edwards' departure
Posted: Wednesday, January 30, 2008 10:52 AM by Mark Murray
From NBC's Mark Murray and Chuck Todd
Today's news that Edwards is dropping out of the race is surprising -- in that he gave every indication he would compete in the February 5 states, and even beyond. He was a man on a mission.
But that mission ends today. While many will attribute Edwards departure to all the attention on Clinton and Obama -- and there has been a lot of attention on those two! -- the fact is that Edwards based his entire candidacy on the first four contests, especially Iowa. And after he finished second in Iowa and third in New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, he no longer had a realistic path to winning the nomination.
Winning Iowa would have changed all that. In fact, it's worth noting that the two Johns -- Edwards and McCain -- had about the same amount of media attention a month before Iowa. The difference was that McCain was able to win in New Hampshire and South Carolina, which set the stage for last night's Florida victory. (Of course, McCain also benefited by not having the equivalents of a Clinton or an Obama in the GOP field -- say a Jeb Bush or perhaps a Mark Sanford.)
All that said, Edwards and his team ran a fine campaign. They easily won the ideas primary (on health care, poverty). Edwards was an excellent debater. And the candidate displayed a deep passion that we don't see from many politicians nowadays.
But perhaps the biggest hurdle Edwards faced -- and didn't clear -- was that Democratic voters aren't too kind to repeat candidates. Look at what happened to Gephardt four years ago. Or even Biden this year. In fact, it could be an obstacle if Obama doesn't end up the Dem nominee and decides to run four or eight years from now. (Gore was a repeat candidate who won the nomination in '00, but he was the vice president.)
Compare that with a Republican Party that likes to reward repeat candidates: Reagan in '80, Dole in '96, and maybe McCain in '08.
It isn't easy being a Democrat making another presidential bid.
So where does Edwards' support go? In South Carolina, Edwards won white men. Could this become the new swing voting group? Obama does well with white men in general election match-ups, but has seen his support drop among these folks in the primary. Now, if Obama has any shot at beating Clinton, he's going to have to win this key voting bloc. It's rare white guys are considered a swing vote, but in a Clinton vs. Obama race, it appears they will. Obama needs them more than Clinton.
As for an endorsement, some Edwards folks claim anything is possible. But in chats with numerous Edwards partisans, it's pretty clear they'd be shocked if he threw his support to Clinton. So for now, the options appear to be sit or support Obama.
