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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Obama focuses on electability

Posted: Wednesday, January 30, 2008 2:34 PM by Mark Murray

From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
DENVER, CO -- There were two clear targets in Obama's speech at the University of Denver on Wednesday morning -- one named (McCain), the other alluded to (Clinton).

In a speech the day after McCain won the Florida Republican primary, becoming that party's new presidential front-runner, Obama argued that the Democrats can't start the general election with half the electoral map against them -- and that they can't take on McCain when their nominee has the same positions as he does on foreign policy issues.

"It's time for new leadership that understands that the way to win a debate with John McCain is not by nominating someone who agreed with him on voting for the war in Iraq; who agreed with him in voting give George Bush the benefit of the doubt on Iran…" Obama said, also pointing to Clinton's positions on torture and diplomacy.

The fact that there were no longer two potential obstacles to the Republican nomination but one was clear when Obama began his speech with words of praise for Edwards, who dropped his bid for the presidency early this morning.

"So while his campaign may end today, the cause of their lives (John and Elizabeth Edwards) endures for all of us who still believe that we can achieve that dream of one America," Obama said. He named every candidate in the race, including Senator Hillary Clinton, and called them "an all-star cast," but the praise didn't overshadow the thrust of Obama's argument that he -- and not Clinton -- is the best choice for the Democratic party.

While electability was the message that Obama wished to convey, the choice felt far more connected to one between generations of leadership rather than who could win against a Republican. The 9,500 people in the audience at Magness Arena was filled with students chanting "We Want Change" and "Yes We Can!" before Obama's arrival.

And the appearance of Caroline Kennedy, the daughter of the late John F. Kennedy, who introduced Obama spoke to that generational choice. Telling the crowd that over the years she had been deeply moved by people who said they were inspired by her own father, Caroline Kennedy said that the "longing" to be inspired "is even more profound today."

"Fortunately there is one candidate who offers that same sense of hope and inspiration. That candidate is Barack Obama," she said.

Obama too played upon the idea of passing the torch, setting up the choice in this election as choosing not only change but between "the past and the future."

"I know it's tempting -- after another presidency by a man named George Bush -- to simply turn back the clock, and to build a bridge back to the 20th century," Obama said.

Repeating a line from his victory speech in South Carolina Obama added, "It's about the past versus the future. And when I am the nominee the Republicans won't be able to make this election about the past because you will have already chosen the future."

Obama went into a list of eleven detailed attacks regarding Senator Clinton including her votes on bankruptcy, trade, and foreign policy. But the thrust of his argument about Clinton was to cast her as a polarizing figure.

Speaking of a woman looking for health care, he said, "She can't afford to wait another four years or another fifteen years to get health care because we've put forward a nominee who can't bring Democrats and Republicans together to get things done." Using Clinton's own line against her, he added: "It's not enough to be ready from Day One -- you have to be right from Day One."

Like in Iowa, Obama's speech felt like a closing argument a blueprint for why he should be chosen as president over someone far more well known and equally qualified for the job. In Iowa, that argument brought many audiences to its feet as he delivered the same message, stop after stop, over course of seven days before the caucuses there. Obama has seven days to do the same thing again. But unlike Iowa, the groundwork for that closing argument has not been laid out as carefully and methodically.

The Clinton campaign questioned Obama's speech as an attempt to go negative after a pledge to run a positive campaign. They pointed out that Obama -- like Clinton -- voted to fund the war in Iraq. And they noted his criticism of Clinton on voting for the Kyl-Lieberman amendment on Iran overlooked both the fact that Obama missed that crucial vote, as well as Clinton's opposition to using military force against Iran without congressional approval.

Eighteen thousand people showed up to see Obama in Denver, the site of the 2004 Democratic national convention and what Democrats see as a state that could go the Democrats' way in 2008. Obama spoke to an overflow crowd of 4,500 at an adjacent gym, and also addressed a second overflow crowd of several thousand at the university's lacrosse stadium. The Denver Broncos' Rod Smith and Federico Pena, the former mayor of Denver, were also on hand and spoke to Obama's ability to bring change.

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Comments

So Cathy from Upstate, Hillary has substance? She has never answered a question in any of the debates with substance. Not 1. Give it a rest. Obama at least thinks before he speaks. He accesses his own brain, not like Hillary waiting for Bill.
Whether it's fair or not, Hillary has a lot of baggage from Bill's presidency. Yes, she's very much capable to be the president of the U.S. I don't think most Democratic voeters would dispute that.

Like most Democrats and Americans, I am counting down the days for George Bush to go back to his ranch. I recognize that Hillary's name on the November ballot would mobilize Republican voters and would not draw independent voters.

We can not risk allowing another Republican back into the White House. Enough is enough.
There are alot of folks who consider themselves independent thinkers who are really just angrily lashing out!

Why on earth would you not want a black president? Or a woman? Or a Morman? or a Catholic? What does that have to do with anything?

Don't you just want someone that you can trust to do the right thing?

I've met Barak Obama in person and he is as amazing one-on-one as he is in front of a large crowd.

I wish people would stop talking in sound-bites; if you don't like a candidate just say so, but it is not necessary to be so awful about it!
Actually, J. Merle, I have to come briefly to the aid of "MK": what s/he was referring to with the 35% is what remains of 100% after Clinton's 40% and Obama's 25% are combined. 40+25=65. 100-65=35. So s/he was indeed correct that the poll suggests that 35% of Edwards' vote is up for grabs.

And you can call me what you want to. But I have never been anything less than respectful to anyone else on this board, even in the posts that don't get printed for whatever reason. Please don't judge my candidate by what his surrogates say on this board, and I promise not to blame Sen. Clinton for your vulgar, disrespectful, and frequently intellectually inconsistent posts.
"Obama would most likely beat McCain.  He could quite conceivably beat him in a landslide.... Clinton, on the other hand, might beat McCain. "
Shadow, Hamden Ct.

No, these statements are incorrect, and here's the site to prove it; http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm
Two seperate polls show her with MORE support than Obama, vs. McCain.
The NBC News Wall Street Journal Poll shows Hillary w/44% against McCain's 46% (a statistical tie). The same poll shows Obama tied with McCain at 42%
BUT....(and here's the 'kicker')
The L.A. Times Bloomberg Poll (which was done simultaneously, and consists of 150 more respondants) shows Hillary BEATING McCain 46% to 42%....while Obama LOSES to McCain 42% to 41%
Now technically that's a tie.
But, between the two polls Hillary averages 45% to McCain's 42%. Obama averages just 41.5%.
Given the margin for error, and the consistancy of both polls, I think it's clear that Hillary would PROBABLY beat McCain, while Obama would PROBABLY lose to him.
Time to face (and to start telling) the truth, Obama supporters.

HILLARY FOR PRESIDENT 2008!
CHANGE is the residue of DESIGN,
DESIGN, is the product of EXPERIENCE!
Face it. Obama is going down. That silly boy is going to go back home crying because the BIG BAD CLINTOS made him cry.

Watch and Learn Mr. Obama.
One might think John from LA has a last name of 'Clinton' or is a speechwriter or senior staffer for the Clinton campaign! How do you respond to the fact that Hilary Clinton is a divisive candidate? She is extremely intelligent and capable but she is certainly in the same category as George Bush and Newt Gingrich...a divisive, somewhat self-righteous, occasionally arrogant person who would look no further than her husband for counsel. And he has already proven he is even more arrogantr and obnoxious out of office than he was while President.

I have been a life-long democrat who as a teenager made signs and campaigned for John F. Kennedy. Obama inspires; Clinton disenfranchises. If Clinton is the democratic nominee, in all likelhiood I shall either sit on the sidelines or vote for McCain...at least he has courage, determination and even  if you disagree with him (an di do on several issues) you know where he stands. The Clintons have proven they will say anything, do anything to get back into the White House and the last thing this country needs is the appearance of another dynasty.
Interesting how vile some of Hillary's supporters are.  Guess they took their cue from Billary in South Carolina.  Disgusting.
I have some inside info on what is going on in the Edwards team. I know people in the Edwards campaign including his campaign manager trying to talk him out of endorsing Hillary Clinton. But at the end, Edwards is going to endorse Clinton. She was there honoring Edwards' son when he died in a fatal car accident, and Edwards never forgot that. Edwards will in turn get the Attorney General position, or a seat on the Supreme Court.
1.    Noticed that whatever Obama says, the Mittster appropriates at the next opporunity?  (Past v future part of his 'concession' speech last nite)

2.    McCain is now screwed (if he wasn't before by his own shortcomings) by lining up with the other zombies and taking the pledge to be bound to the record established by the past 8 years.  That is a record that even the blogsters here could win against (okay, that's a bit much).
People open your EYES. Hillary (and her husband) Clinton only cares about POWER. Her's. She don't really care about you or me. All she cares about is getting nominated for President and if she wins the general elections then she can tell Ms. Pelosi that she (Hillary) is the most powerful woman in the world.
Remember when Ms. Pelosi said the same thing when she became Speaker of the House?
So, open your eyes America and let us elect someone that is not in bed with big business or lobbyists.
You Hillary Supporters have absolutely LOST YOUR COLLECTIVE MINDS!!!  I guess she's lucky have such blind loyalty from her followers.  YOu remind me very  much of the blind followers of George W. Bush!
It's sad that people won't embrace these candidates dreams of being President. We judge them for all the wrong reasons and not how they can truly affect our lives. I was inspired by John Edwards and would love to see him in the White House, even as a Vice President. People all over the US are losing homes, jobs and their quality of life due to a 2 term presidency that have focused on everything outside of the US instead of right here. The candidiates are really saying the same thing for the most part it's the same message, different messenger - The goal should be to put someone in the White House with a mind like you, not one that looks like you. So this is an election year and the nastiness comes out in everyone - top prize of the land. The victor should be the one who wants it most, who works the hardest for your vote not the one who feels they should be there because they should. We wound up with a mess these past 8 years because someone being the most popular and charming. Look at the eyes. Go with your heart and not your mind and let's put a President that can bring us change in the White House. We need some newness, something fresh and I hope the best candidate doesn't get over looked because they are not the right age, not the right sex and not the right color.
I urge everyone to go to both HRCs and Obama's website and research for themselves and compare the solutions and messages the offer for America.  I am an Obama supporter but i am an informed supporter.  I'm not spewing hatred and ignorant slogans at the other candidate.  Obama is right. He would be a formidable opponent for McCain.  He is favored in the polls over McCain.  And i like McCain.  
Hillary is a liability to the democratic party right now.  Not because she's a woman, but because she and her husband have shown to lack character and judgment which is surely needed to lead this nation.  So stop with your blind rages and do some research.  While you research don't ignore the 800 pound gorilla in the room - the Clintons' past. Damn!
Obama Supporters:
We are above these tactics.  We must not distort to the dirty tactics and political bashing!  

Remember...this is NOT what we do and what we should be doing.  We also reflect the CANDIDATE, if anything we should state the facts on issues and explain why we support our candidate.  I believe the evidence is overwhelming why we support him and the facts are overwhelming why we have chosen this path of support; not to stray to another camp.   Many think that all Obama does is give speeches, well the real supporters know what is really going on.

For all those who left the Obama camp, that's okay, we appreciated your support and hope you realize everyone is passionate on various issues, but the Obama supporters should refrain from this type of behavior.  It's okay to be against something, but I believe more importantly, you should be FOR something worthwhile having and achieving.  

We should be busy getting out the vote for Obama.  The way I see it...the enemy will always come in and try to get you off of the real issues...DON'T LET THEM!

On to Super Tuesday, where the delegates will be separated, hopefully more for Obama and on to more campaigning.  No more GUTTER political madness, IT'S NOT WORTH IT!          

Another brilliant move from the President to be; I am pretty much sure Obama haters will troop out in a minute.

This is going to be a battle to the finish line; it is high time we elected someone that can win in Red state
Let’s look at the field at hand, we have an old government bureaucratic veteran that talks about change and has not brought nothing but lip service to the table. On the other hand you have a person that has defied the olds and have voted for change. So the question stands do we stick with the status quote or do we really do change.

So the people on this board that bash Obama, look at Clinton WHAT CHANGE HAS THIS WOMEN VOTED FOR? Nothing point taken. Now if MR. Clinton was running for president I would vote for him in a heartbeat, but don’t get the two confused. Obama is our best choice otherwise we will be going in the same direction we have been for the best 8 years.

Wake up people, new change is necessary to make this country move forward and not still in the past dealing with old skeletons.


M. King
“If you don’t stand for something, you’ll fall for anything”

Just my $0.02
Heard an interesting analysis of the fall election possibilities if Obama is the nominee: he could win by 10 points, but he could just as easily lose by 10 points.  You people complain about the "nasty" things you think the Clintons have hurled at him.  Just wait until you see the kind of garbage the Republicans will throw his way.  He'll be spending all his time trying to deny their charges, and he won't get his own message out at all.  

One thing I like about Hillary: they're not going to get away with a thing.  Yeah, she's tough as nails, and you criticize her for it.  But "tough as nails" is what we lacked in Al Gore and in John Kerry, and THIS time we need to be sure we nominate someone who can WIN against the GOP attack machine.
Why all the whining about the media from the Clinton supporters? You've had MONTHS of being inevitable - and you blew it! Now you have to campaign just like everyone else - deal with it!

It's the media's job to call it how THEY see it, now how you WANT them to see it . . .
"You know...all this infighting between Obama supporters and Clinton supporters is sure to doom the election in November. Remember that. "



Is the infighting between McCain and Romney going to doom the Republican party in Novemeber?
Clinton is way ahead in most every poll and with only 5 days to go.  Way to go Joe Law,, you asked - Was your reporter even at this event? The speech was at the University of Denver not the University of Colorado. And 18,000 heard the speech? Who gave the reporter the crowd estimate, the Obama campaign? The crowd was impressive but it was more like 6,000 and mostly college students from DU.
It was more like 5-6,000 from the College, I know that first hand. My daughter was there, she lives in Colorado Springs.  What a bunch of lying losers you Obama supporters are.
I was at the Clinton Event in Little Rock this morning myself and I estimate there was about 3,000 there and some of those were students probably about 5-600.  She was elegant both in appearance, style and substance.  It was a great event and she is a great lady.  She did not say anything negative about Obama, not one word. She was totally on message as to what she can and will do for America.
Patrick you have no idea what the heck your talking about.  Do you know what Hillary has done for NY as a state sen. Read before you say something that stupid....
Vote Hillary; Bill needs more interns to sodomize.
Obama 4 president!!!!!!
                         2008
:o)
Patty,
I am a latina who is voting for Obama!!! As Latins, we are mostly Catholic and believe that it is against God to be racists.  You and your family will experience severe hurt and pain in the future.  It is your own karma!!! It will come back to you or your kids.
The Clinton supporters think it is their right to have Hillary as President. As far as i am concern Hillary Clinton is not the one... enough said. You can see the way Hillary supporters make their argument; they focus more on what divide this country.

Thank God Obama will put end to all that nonsense. It is time to turn the page
Patrick, Indianapolis,
You just convinced me to vote for Hillary.
Hey, I live in Arizona and guess what McCain has done for us?  NOTHING!!!  He doesn't vote for what the people of Arizona want or need.   He sides with Bush or doesn't vote at all.  He can't even show up for his buddy's last state of union.  I'll tell you what, John McCain is W. on Geretol.
You tell em, NY, NY and how right you are about the poll and the analysis of what they proved.

You Obama guys go find the rock you crawled out from under and get back under it and BTW take Chappaquidick Fat Ass Teddy and Crooked Poll Obama with you and do us all a huge favor.
I'm 52 years old and have followed politics all my life.. I have never seen the amount of excitement and energy around one candidate as i do with Barack Obama.
My children and grandchildren are driving me nuts to vote for him, and the more i watch him the more i like him and his vision for America..

You got my vote Obama next Tuesday..

thanks, Bradley
It's time for a change,people. It is time for a BLACK president. Just because Barack is black doesn't mean he isn't  qualified like some white folk  for the white house. The whites have fooled us long enough. They are not better educated or talented than black people.There is a saying that goes " everybody wants to go to heaven but nobody wants to die" .
I am Hispanic too and I have Filipino friends and they nobody I know is voting for obama.

We don't want a black president.
patty, San Diego, California (Sent Wednesday, January 30, 2008 3:04 PM)

Really, remember you are Hispanic and your friends are Filipion you are all minorities. Remember that.
Wow and so the Democratic Party will be unified after this nomination contest is over right? By the looks of things in this blog that will not happen. So many people are being turned off by racial, ethnic, and gender discrimination that is being talked about on blogs (like this) and via television. I find it hypocritically that the Democratic Party was suppose to be the party of inclusion. I see that soon enough things will get too hot and a party civil war will breakout. And while inter party bickering is going on, the Republicans (McCain) will retain the White House. I wonder who would be the blame for it??? All of you who are spreading such disgusting racial, ethnic, and gender slurs would be to blame. If you don't think so just look at the blog entries here and else and see my point. GET IT TOGETHER DEMOCRATS OR LOSE THE ELECTION!!!
I absoultely agree with you H.Anne..

enough w/ the ill rhetoric and false polls/date people are spewing out as well... The media buys into Polls b/c it provides them w/ "spin" and stories.. The truth is from the ground Obama has a ton of new supporters and young voters and time will only tell how much of that applies to votes. Personally, i think he's going to do well and surprise a lot of ppl next tuesday...

- Maggs
I am inspired by Obama, he really has a candor about him that makes it hard for young people like myself not to draw inspiration.  I feel that Senator Obama can, unlike Hillary Clinton, can really have great success in bringing republicans, independents, and democrats together to meet our country's most important goals; whether its the economy, healthcare, national security, and education reform. I support him 1000%, and look to cast my vote towards him when the time comes.
Dear Patrick, Indianapolis: You wrote, "I find it interesting that when things get tough what is the first thing Hillary does?  She runs to Bill and begs him to fix the problem for her." What about teddy kennedy and oprah for Obama? Double standards, Please!
Im sorry Hillary sucks. But not as good as Monica. Im a life long Democrat if Billary gets the Nod. Im gonna vote McCain.
Obama seems to be the best candidate now.

Perhaps he can pull it off...
Obama is definately the choice for socialist/leftist and the pacifists who want to bury their heads in the sand.  NO I WILL NOT FIGHT BY MUSLIM BROTHERS.
Frankie and J Merle, you got that right!! Obama is just another nice guy, weak, democrat. I will vote democratic in November no matter what. But, whats with these shrieky far lefters and Naderites again- threatening that if Obama does not win they won't vote or will vote republican. What a bunch of crybaby fools!!! What about the issues folks, the democratic ideas and values?
It is so sad to read many of the comments. I'm so tired of the racists, bigots and just plan stupid people that make up our country.  No wonder we get people like Bush and Clinton to choose from.

People need to wake up and grow up.  If you are so DUMB to not vote for someone just because of their ethic background, WHAT A DAMN SHAME FOR YOU! Patty for one, you represent the WORST of AMERICA - I hope you take a hard look at yourself.
I'm tired of Obama and the media perpetuating the anti-Clinton sentiments in this country. She has a far more solid reputation for "working" on issues, instead of talking about them. I'm a 39 year old MAN, who will support Hillary 100%. Not because she is a woman or because Obama is black, but because I know Hillary will deliver and not just talk about issues.
NY NY I am from Florida and it is not possible for Hillary to have carried the independent vote as independents cannot vote in our primary.

By the way I am Hispanic Patty and I would vote for Obama.  Please refrain from using your ethnicity to spread racist nonsense.

LM, Orlando, FL
Billary cannot and will not win the general election. S/he has base of support and that's it. And with Wild Bill's race baiting in SC, blacks will stay at home.

More importantly, Obama is attracting independents, which Billary will never vote for her/him.

Speaking for myself - a 57 WM, who is a lifelong Progressive/Liberal Dem - I will not vote for President if Billary is our nominee. I'd rather put up with four years of McCain, than four years of Billary. Billary's conduct in SC showed their true colors - rednck.
I was sorry to see John Edwards quit the race, but I think he's done the right thing.  He has been splitting the vote and we need clarity to make sure the right candidate wins.  I support Obama, but I could also vote for Clinton if she gets the nomination.  The problem is, Clinton will galvanize the Republican vote, they will vote for McCain just to keep Hillary out of the Presidency.  I truely believe Obama can unite us again, the young people know this and are supporting him in huge numbers.  We can't afford another 4 years of Republican rule, we must take back this country.  The Clintons are good people, and Hillary is a terrific candidate, but only Obama can bring us together.
Frankie, your long winded explanation to attempt to sound intelligent was quite funny.  Sometimes less is more, and it may have helped your fruitless argument gain some traction.  Truth of the matter is, Hillary is a polarizing figure.  FACT.  Obama does not sway in the wind a la Hillary and the more people get to know him the more they realize that, "White" or black or even latino.  

Something extremely interesting ... even though Obama lost Florida, it is said by NY TIMES (A Hillary endorser) that Obama got beat by absentee ballots sent a week or more ago.  He actually took a split from exit polling that same day.  Translation, give him time and he will win over everyone.  That is why he is running for AMERICA, not just Dems.
The Clintons allowed a retarded hispanic to be executed in Arkansas.  It was later found he was probably innocent.  Time for a change.
Every Soldier i talk to is Obama"...

This says a lot in my opinion http://www.digg.com/2008_us_elections/ABC_Every_Soldier_I_talked_to_is_for_Obama

go OBama!!
That though I will not vote for a Republican currently, I doubt that Obama or Clinton can win in the general election.

The media has played the White Woman against a Black Man spiel that it crowded out all other candidates who would have made a better choice.  Even here it is apparent that many vote in regards to race(ex. Patty) or merely by a vision without guidelines.

It does not help that Obama is a wimp who says such nice things but fails to follow through, while Clinton is experienced but only under the mantle of Bill.

Obama is unelectable, as unlike Clinton, the Republicans do not have to play nice and try to play to the electoral faction called "Blacks", I hate using that, but that is how things are.  It plays directly to their base.  Not to mention them attacking him far more heavily about his prior drug use.

Clinton is unelectable much like with how someone said, that this race would be done through Independents, and McCain will most probably pull more Independents than Clinton.  However, not by as much as some people think.  Clinton would definitely rally the Republican base to vote against her however which is an issue, while many Democrats who fell under the spell of Obama would then have tepid support towards Clinton, and might not end up voting.

Rather anti-climactic don't you think?
You cannot claim that Obama lost more than 75% of the white vote when the vote was simply shared among the 3 top candidates. That does not translate into loss. Also note that polls showed him receiving only 10% of the white vote, even though he got 24%.
So, stop whining. You need the brain to do creative analysis of what had happened and not jsut go by the media's own analyses.


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